Indiana Business Review Fall 2011

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INDIANABUSINESSREVIEW

Finding Work: New Career Pathways in an Evolving Labor Market

demographic and economic perspectives, insights, and analysis since 1926

Fall 2011

Volume 86, No. 3

Migration Trends and

Population Change Between

the Censuses

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Kelley School of Business

Daniel C. Smith Dean

Frank Acito Associate Dean of Information Technology Munirpallam Venkataramanan Associate Dean of

Academic Programs Idie Kesner

Associate Dean of Faculty and Research Philip L. Cochran Associate Dean of Indianapolis Programs Anne D. Auer

Director of Marketing

Indiana Business Research Center

Jerry N. Conover Director and Publisher

Indiana Business Review

Carol O. Rogers Executive Editor Rachel M. Justis Managing Editor Diane M. Probst Graphic Designer

Flora A. Lewis Quality Control

Fall 2011

Volume 86, No. 3

w w w . i b r c . i n d i a n a . e d u

Keen attention is paid to the latest job numbers—often immediately followed by dismay at the continuing unemployment and lack of new jobs. Both articles in this issue of the IBR focus on jobs. Tim Slaper reveals a new way of approaching a career: pathway clusters. The principle is pretty simple: job seekers will seek and be most productive in jobs that are most similar to the ones they lost and the pathway cluster results in many possible job targets, not just one.

And speaking of job loss, State Demographer Matt Kinghorn gives us a close-up at migration ﬁndings, taking us on a statewide journey across population-losing counties and population-gainers. The evidence seems clear that many of our industrial-based older communities have seen people move away after jobs were lost. Will we continue to see such patterns of migration, loss and gain? Matt is also working on our ﬁrst set of Indiana and county population projections (by age, race and sex) for the 2010s; look for those in our Spring issue.

8 Migration Trends and Population Change Between the Censuses

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Finding Work: New Career Pathways in an Evolving Labor Market

Timothy F. Slaper, Ph.D.: Director of Economic Analysis, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business

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T^ABLE 1:Tri-State Top 15 Green and Growing Non-Automotive Occupation Postings and Expected Job Change to 2018

1 Source: HWOL, Quarter 4, 2010; Green jobs total, N=131,248.

2 Source: BLS; Projections from 2008 to 2018 are for parent, six-digit SOC. HWOL and O^*NET now report occupations at the eight-digit SOC detail. As a result, those occupations listed in this table are at the more detailed, eight-digit SOC while the projection ﬁgures are for the parent six-digit SOC. Hence the projection is for a group of similar occupations and not the speciﬁc occupation listed in the table.

3 Source: O^*NET; O^*NET categorizes green industries into 12 sectors. For the purposes of this report, the research team recast those 12 sectors into ﬁve categories (auto manufacturing being the ﬁfth).

4 Source: IBRC using HWOL and BLS/OES data

5 Source: BLS. Mean wage calculated for the tri-state region using a weighted average.

Rank Description

HWOL Green Postings¹

10-Year Expected

Growth²

Industry Group³

Postings-to- Employment

Ratio⁴

Mean Wage⁵

1 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 16,343 13.0% 1 : 10 $39,190

2 Customer Service Representatives 13,767 17.7% 1 : 13 $32,898

3 Marketing Managers 5,919 12.5% 1 : 2 $106,051

4 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and

Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products 5,194 9.7% 1 : 8 $80,298

5 General and Operations Managers 4,038 -0.1% 1 : 22 $108,057

6 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material

Movers, Handlers 3,131 -0.8% 1 : 75 $25,930

7 Automotive Specialty Technicians 2,745 4.7% 1 : 20 $37,297

8 Public Relations Specialists 1,826 24.0% 1 : 9 $51,630

9 Training and Development Specialists 1,794 23.3% 1 : 10 $53,051

10 Engineering Managers 1,638 6.2% 1 : 11 $109,392

11 Welders, Cutters, and Welder Fitters 1,574 -1.6% 1 : 21 $35,842

12 Computer Software Engineers, Systems

Software 1,377 30.4% 1 : 14 $81,926

13 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks 1,365 1.5% 1 : 20 $41,314

14 Aerospace Engineers 1,353 10.4% 1 : 1 $86,484

15 Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics

and Installers 1,323 28.1% 1 : 16 $45,441

Miscellaneous Industries Not Elsewhere Classiﬁed

Environmental Services Non-Auto Manufacturing Energy-Related Industries

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Note: All occupations in this table fall within the “Miscellaneous Industries Not Elsewhere Classiﬁed” industry group.

1 Source: HWOL, Quarter 4, 2010; Green jobs total, N=131,248.

2 Source: BLS; Projections from 2008 to 2018 are for parent, six-digit SOC. HWOL and O^*NET now report occupations at the eight-digit SOC detail. As a result, those occupations listed in this table are at the more detailed, eight-digit SOC while the projection ﬁgures are for the parent six-digit SOC. Hence the projection is for a group of similar occupations and not the speciﬁc occupation listed in the table.

3 Source: IBRC using HWOL and BLS/OES data

4 Source: BLS. Mean wage calculated for tri-state using a weighted average.

Rank Description

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Mean Wage⁴

1 Registered Nurses 23,415 22.2% 1 : 11 $60,750

2 Retail Salespersons 16,233 8.4% 1 : 23 $23,938

3 Occupational Therapists 14,728 25.6% 1 : 1 $68,962

4 Physical Therapists 12,620 30.3% 1 : 1 $73,557

5 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 12,003 5.3% 1 : 8 $38,589

6 Computer Systems Analysts 10,422 20.3% 1 : 4 $77,109

7 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 9,971 12.8% 1 : 10 $41,237

8 Web Developers 8,790 13.4% 1 : 2 $68,394

9 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing,

Except Technical and Scientific Products 7,895 6.6% 1 : 17 $58,906

10 Medical and Health Services Managers 7,796 16.0% 1 : 4 $82,542

11 Computer Support Specialists 7,740 13.8% 1 : 6 $42,408

12 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and

Administrative Support Workers 7,662 11.0% 1 : 13 $48,399

13 Speech-Language Pathologists 7,352 18.5% 1 : 1 $72,655

14 Sales Agents, Financial Services 6,041 9.3% 1 : 4 $72,610

15 Office Clerks, General 5,970 11.9% 1 : 44 $26,764

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§ Clusters are ordered based on their relative strength, or how “tight” the clusters are. Information and investigation was the strongest cluster. The environmental sciences and food service cluster, in contrast, had the weakest similarity scores. The number of occupations in a cluster does not speak to the cluster’s relative strength or importance.

¤ Based on the six-digit SOC definitions of the 2009 vintage of O^*NET. The 2010 eight-digit O^*NET/SOC definitions have considerably more jobs classified as green.

Source: Indiana Department of Workforce Development (IDWD) and the Indiana Business Research Center (IBRC)

Cluster Name^§

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Number of Occupations

Number of Green^¤

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Health, Social and Personal Services 2 90 0

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Operation, and Repair 3b 69 15

Design and Production 3c 73 14

Liberal Arts, Education and Human Relations 4 86 7

Business, Sales and Administration 5 105 15

Transportation and Public Services 6 97 20

Environmental Sciences and Food Service 7 74 15

FIGURE 1:Selected Occupations in the Same Cluster as an Industrial Machinery Mechanic

Source: Indiana Business Research Center

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Source: Indiana Business Research Center

Auto Sector Occupation Destination Occupation

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Pathway

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Pathway

Cluster ID Trip Time (Hours) Helpers—Production Workers 3a Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still

Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

3b 370

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6 370

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Managers of Production and Operating Workers

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5 360

Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic

3a 310

T^ABLE 4:Sample Career Transitions from Automotive Occupations to In-Demand Green Occupations with Above Average Wages

Source: IDWD and IBRC

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Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

3c 130

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Coin, Vending, and Amusement Machine Servicers and Repairers

6 310

Helpers—Production Workers 3a Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators

3b 200

Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

3c 205

Coin, Vending, and Amusement Machine Servicers and Repairers

6 330

T^ABLE 5:Sample Career Transitions from Automotive Occupations to In-Demand Non-Green Occupations with Above Average Wages

Source: IDWD and IBRC

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e the pat eae t tat th the

aapȬae et aeaǯ The ŗŖȬt¢

e^ŗ ee h aaȂ ppat

th e the pat eaeǰ a Řřŗǰŗřŝ pepeȯa ŗśǯŘ peet eaeǯ Th

e ate śŝ peet the

tateȂ tta thǯ Th ap th

ea that the tateȂ ppat

e ea¢ etate

eta aaǯ The ŗŖȬt¢ et

aeaȂ hae the tate ppat

eae Řśǯŗ peet ŘŖŖŖ t

Řŝǯŗ peet ŘŖŗŖǯ

F^IGURE 1:Indiana Population Change by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: IBRC, using U.S. Census Bureau data

Migration Trends and Population Change Between the Censuses

Matt Kinghorn: Demographer, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University

More than 20% (5) Increases

Declines

10% to 20% (8) 0% to 9.9% (50)

-0.01% to -3 (16) Less than -3% (13) Warren

Marion

Knox

Posey

Martin

Daviess Scott

Jay

Pike

Adams

Hancock

Decatur

Gibson

Porter

Wayne Randolph Grant

Marshall

Fayette Putnam

Montgomery Lake

Warrick

Rush Benton

Vigo

Hamilton

Bartholomew Boone

Clark

Wells

Black- ford

Jennings

Newton

Sullivan

LaPorte

Ohio

Floyd Morgan Johnson

Huntington

Allen

Cass

Washington Greene

Franklin

Vander- burgh

Orange Tippecanoe

Howard

Jackson

Henry Parke

Vermillion

Miami

Perry Fountain

Kosciusko

Jefferson Fulton

Spencer Pulaski

Ripley

Union Whitley

Jasper

Clay

Hendricks

St. Joseph Steuben

Crawford

Switzerland

Dubois White

Carroll

Noble DeKalb

Madison

Shelby

Brown Tipton Starke

Harrison

Dearborn Clinton

Delaware Elkhart LaGrange

Owen

Monroe

Lawrence

Wabash

(11)

aa e ee ǰ a ŘŖŗŗȳ^Xȳş

aaȂ the ae etpta

tatta aeaȯ a¢ǰ t a¢eǰ

ae a th eȯ a

e t ¢ t a¢e tpae

the tateȂ a ŜǯŜ peet th

e the eaeǯ

ea heǰ a¢ the Ȭ

£e te that e

h aaȂ ta

ae a ęat ppat

eeǯ Th pata¢ the ae thh a ath thȬeta

a eatȬeta aa hee

etpta a pta aea

h a apt ǻȬŚǯŞ peetǼǰ aah ǻȬśǯş peetǼǰ

ǻȬŘǯŞ peetǼǰ a ǻȬŚǯŜ peetǼǰ

e ǻȬŗǯř peetǼǰ e ǻȬŖǯş peetǼǰ h ǻȬřǯŗ peetǼ a ee ǻȬśǯŗ peetǼ t ppatǯ

aǰ Ŝř aa te ae

eet e the at eae he Řş t ppat ǻee Figure 1Ǽǯ

a t¢ ǻȬşǯŗ peetǼǰ et t¢ ǻȬŜǯŖ peetǼ a

aah t¢ ǻȬśǯş peetǼ ha

the hapet ee a aa

teǯ The Řş te th

h ppat e t

e ŘŝǰşŚŝ eet e th peǯ ea heǰ the tateȂ ęe atetȬ

te a ee

a t¢ǯ Thee te

ee e ¢ at a eǰ hh e ¢ śŖ peet ǻşŗǰŞŘş

eetǼ a ŚŖ peet ǻŚŗǰřśśǼǰ

epete¢ǯ

aaȂ aet te ae

ǰ tǯ a t¢ ae

ŚŘǰşřş eet t eah a tta

ppat şŖřǰřşřȯa ś peet

eaeǯ th et aaǰ ae

t¢ p ŘǯŚ peet t ŚşŜǰŖŖś

eetǰ he eh te

t¢ e ¢ ŗŘ peet t eah ŗŜŚǰřŚřǯ e t¢ e ¢ ŝǯŗ peet t t řśśǰřŘş eetǯ

he ta ee a¢ hae

e t ppat a¢ pat

the tateǰ t et aea that ae hea¢ e aat

a t thǯ hat t¢ǰ

epte e ht ha ¢ th

ee th eaeǰ pte a

Şǯŗ peet ppat thǰ he athe t¢ e ¢ ŝǯś peetǯ

Components of Indiana’s Population Change

pat tat thh

ata eae ǻthe ěeee

et ee the e th a

eathǼ a atǯ e the

at eaeǰ aa ha h¢

řŘŖǰŖŖŖ e th tha eathǰ hh ate ŞŖ peet the

tateȂ tta ppat thǯ

t ęe aa te ǻeǰ e¢ǰ aǰ a aahǼ

etee a pte ata eae

e the at eaeǯ

et Ȭat a a e

ppat th a t ea¢

a epeaǯ ¢ řŖ aaȂ

şŘ te ae ppatǰ

etǰ thh at e the at

eaeǯ^Ř ea that Ŝř te

the ppat a e th

peǰ hh ea that the ata

eae řř te a ae eh t ěet a et tȬat

eetǯ

th ppat th

eeaǰ a te the

aap et aea ha the

eatet ee et Ȭat ǻee Figure 2Ǽǯ at t¢ ha the

tateȂ aet pte et at

at h¢ ŜśǰŖŖŖ eet e

the eaeǯ Th ęe a t e a eat a eȬpae e

t¢ǰ hh ha a et Ȭat

řŘǰŖŖŖ eetǯ at a

e teȂ at

e eate t a at ate pe ŗŖŖ eet řśǯŝ a řŗǯŖǰ

epete¢ǯ t the

tateȂ ęe hhet at ate

ee the e aap

et te a

t¢ ǻŗşǯś pe ŗŖŖ eetǼǰ

e t¢ ǻŗŝǯŘǼ a h

t¢ ǻŗŚǯŝǼǯ

a te ee hee

the tate a h e hh ate

Ȭatǯ a ǻŗŖǯśǼ a

a ǻşǯşǼ te the e

et aea ha hh ate et

Ȭat a a t¢

ǻŗŖǯŖǼ the ae aea a

te t¢ ǻŝǯřǼ th et

aaǯ the theat e the

tateǰ a ĵea t¢ ǻŗŚǯśǼ a h t¢ ǻŜǯŜǼ a ha

hh aǯ

et tȬat e the at

eaeǰ h eeǰ a epea

the the ha the tateǯ

atǰ e¡ te the

aap et aeaǰ ¢ ¡

the ŚŜ aa te th

tetate ŝŖ ǻ teete ¢ tǼ ha et Ȭat e the at ŗŖ

¢eaǯ aǰ etǰ a a

a ae te eah ha et tȬ

at ate ae Ş eet

pe ŗŖŖǯ

a t¢ ha the aet ate et tĚ ppat

e the eae at h¢ řŖǰśŖŖ

eet e ¢ tǯ eph

t¢ ǻȬŗřǰŖŖŖǼ a ae t¢

ǻȬŗŖǰşŖŖǼǯ

heǰ aa pte a et

Ȭat ŞŖǰŖŖŖ eet

et ee ŘŖŖŖ a ŘŖŗŖǯ Th

Indiana Business Review Fall 2011