Indiana

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Business

Review

J u l y 1 9 9 8

0verview

Growlh and Decline Fast-Growing Suburban Counties Migration, 1995-96

. Plus an update on Census 2000

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1 2 4 6 1 0

I nS e ft Indiana Businoss Reviow TTPDATE

new subd vhions in Poner

We always appreciate feedback. Complinents? C1mplaints?

Comments? Suggestions fot afticles or topics you'd like t0

see c|vercd? Send them all to Carol 0. R1gers at the addrcss

on the back cover, or e-mail her at [email protected]

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An 0verview ol Population Estimates

he [J.S. Bureau oflhe Census producesannual population eslimates Jor stales and counties.

New state estimates arc rc eased or December 31 ofthe sameyeaf, wh ch meaisthe estirnates tor Ju y l, 1997 were rgleased lasl De-

cember3l. Counlyestimalesthatareconsistentwilh the previously released slate estimates are usually

reeased in thespring oflhelollowing year. Along wlth each new rclease, the Bureau aso revises est - mates of previous years. In l\larch 1998, it released new 1997 county estimales, as wellas revisionslor 1991-1996.

Slate and County Eslimalion Melhodology Stah estimates ar€ derived by summinq county esti_

mahs to lhe slate level. The Cgnsus Bureau dev€lops county estimates wilh a componontchange procedurc caled ihe Tax Return melhod. T0 b!ild the model, the Burcau estimales €ach componentof popu ation change separalely. Fof peopl€ residirg in households, the componenls ofchange ars births, deaths, and net mi0ralion, includlng net lmmigration from abrcad. For th6 non-housohold pop!lauon, change is rcprcsented by netchange n lhe population in gfoup quarlers facilities.

Indiana births and deaths are estimatsd usino dala provlded bythe Nalional Cefter ior Health Slatis- tics and the Indlana State Dspartmant of Health. Th€

miOralion component is ostimatod lorthe under-65 population usino fodenliicome tax retun dala;Jor thoso 65 and over, ii uses lvl€dicare coveao€ data.

Group quarters pop!lation data are collectod annLrally bytho Indiana Bus ness Research Cenle( ifcluding the iurnbef ot pooplo roslding in colleoe and !niver- sity housin0, coiioctionallacllit es, menta healih facilities, and juv€n l€ facllltios. These dalaare us€d to esiimate the chanOo in non'household popu ation in each county.

ln an eftort to meet us€rs'demands for cuftent dala, the Census Bufeau's produclion schedule was accelerated n the rnid'1990s so that counly estimales forJuly 1 0l each yearwould be availabl€ thelollow' ing spring. Because data arc usually notalailable for the cuffeni€slimate year, the Bureau often estirnaies thes€c0mponents usin0 simplilyingassumpiions, inc uding the assumptionlhatthere has been no

change inlhe data between the pevious year and ilre currenl year-or, ii more recent data arc available ai the slate level, thatlhe djstributon oi data by county did notchangefrorn ihe prioryear. Ayear lale( the iniUal component esi malesare rcplaced by revised estimates based on the actual data lor the cornp0' nents o1popu ation change.

The annua revision process can rcsult in conf!- sion. ll users would add onlylhe newly rel€ased estimales forlhe most recenl yearlo an existing database

1

orspreadsheel, the changes and perc€ntchanges fromthe prevousyearthey calc!lated would be dif- ferentfrom those obta ned by using the r€vised tig- ures tor the previous year

Coun9 Estlmale Revisions, 1996

In fi,4arch 1998,the Census Bureau released revisions of 1996 county populalion estimates that had been orig naly released in the sprlng of199z Hiqhliqhts 0f these rev sions include:

Estimated population forthe stale as ofJuly 1, 1996 was cutfrom 5,840,528 to 5,828,090 fora decfease of 12,438 peop e-a0.21% reduclion.

Eleven countes saw upward revsions for a totalof 255 more people. Eighty-one counties saw down- ward revisions for a lotalol12,693 fewer people.

The laDsst numerc dillerenceswerc in Madon Couity (down 2,671 people) and Lake Couity (down 924 people). The lafossl fumeric increase was in Dearborn County (up 62 p€ople).

The largest percentags ditfsfonces were in Franklin and Erown countios, oach down byaboul1%.

For6TcoLrnties,thercvislonswero between-0.3%

and 0.390. For 16 couities, the rcv sions wers behreen -0.4% and -0.3%. Foriine counties, the revislons w€fe b€tweef -1% and -0.4%.

Sub-Counly Esllmal6s

The Consus Bureau aso prcducos ostimates forall ctl€s, towns, ard townships ln lho nation, although thetrsquoncyand timing 0fthes€ rsloasos vafy. Tho most recent sub"county populalion estirnates for 1991-1996 werc rsleased in November 1997.

The Bureau calculated sub-county estimates us ng ihe Distributivo Housing lllethod. Starting with the rumberof housing uniis in each geographic area from the 1990 census, and uslng b!ildlng perm tand demolition data l0r l990-1996, an esiimate 0lthe n!mber ol hous ng units Jor July 1, 1996loreach geograph c area was calculated. Then applying the persons per household rates ircm the 1990 census, eslimates ofihe househod Do0ulatiof were calcu-' laled. Esilmales 011996 qroup quarters population were added to the household eslimatesio yieldioia population esiimales foreach area. The Census Bu- reau has announced lhat ii expech to re{elease the 1996 sub-couniy eslimates during the summer of 1998.

0rmographic Eslimates

The Census Bureau also periodica ly releases population eslimales with demographic detailfor slates and counties. We currently have estimates byage, gender, race, and origin lor Ju y 1, 1996.

Joan Rainey

Besearch Diectot, lndiana I usiness Research Unte r, Keley khool of Eusiness, lndiana Universify'

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Growth and Decline: Indiana and the U.S.

oos er population continues to qrow, according 10 populatior estirnates released bythe U.S.

Bureau olthe Census on December Sl , 1997.

Butthe rate ls sl0werthan itwas earlier in the decade. The state's population s esiimaled to have incrcased from 5.83 mi ion in 1996 to 5 86 m l i o n n l9 9 7 , 1 o r a n i n c r e a s e o f 3 6 0 0 0 p e o p l e a n d a n a n n u a l g r o M l r r a t e o l 0 . 6 % .

The estirnates suggeslihat popu ation groMh n the state s slowino down and s consistenl with the slowing in the state! economic growth. Both the popu ation and the economy conunueto grow, btlt more sowy lhan ln lhe early 1990s. Growtlr in the most tecerl year accounls forthe smallestamounl of annualgrowlh s nce 1990, both in iumbers of people added and yearly rates (see Figure 1).

ovemll, the slate has grown by320,000 people slncethe most rccent census in 1990-sixtirnes tlre gfowlh olthe 1980s (54,000). The rale 015.8% be' tween Apf 1,1990 and JLrly 1, 1997 is much h gher than the 1980s raie ol l%. The state expefi€nced nel out"migfation n the 1980s, with more people movlng out ol ndiana lhan movino n. The s ght growlh in the '80s wasthe result ot naturalincrease (m0Te b rths thaf deaths).

The migration pathrns in the state have changed if the'90s. We are experhncing a foversa of previous migfation lrerds with ar0er numbels ot people mov- iig into lhe state. Th s n'migration and naiural if- crease are combining to accountfot afoeramounls of0rowth as wollas morc rap d popu ation orowtlr than we saw n lhe '80s.

Tax return-based migration data lrom lho RS prcv de evidence that more peop e ate now movinO into hdianathan are mov ng oul.0fthe net popula- t on iicrease ol36,000 people belween 1996 and

1997, aboll30 000 were lhe resu I of more birlhs thaf deaths with the rema ning 6,000 due to fet in_

mtgral0n

Anfua populauon qrowlh forlie slate appears to have peaked bet'i/een 1992 and 1993, when Ure Hoosier slate's population qrew by 52,000 people, with 33,000 more births than dealhs and a net in_

migration of 19,000 peop e.

Indianab growth late 0f5.8% between 1990 and 1 9 9 7 s o w e r t h a n t h e 7 . 6 % r a l e f o r t h e n a l i o f . T h e Hoosier state has been the 28th lastest grow ng state

n the nation between 1990 and 1997, retain ng its posilion as lhe nation's 14th most populous stale.

Howevsr,lndiaia's share ol the nation's popu ation cont nues to decline, lrcm 2.56% n 1974,la 2.42'k

n 1 9 8 0 , t 0 2 . 2 3 % i n 1 9 s 0 , a n d l 0 2 . 1 9 9 0 i n 1 9 9 2 Tlre state's growlh rate of 5.8% cornpares favot- ably wlth that ot neiglrborinq slates. The l\llidwest region grew by 4.7% during lhe same seven"year p e od. I n d a n a h a s g r o w n l a s l e r t h a n i , 4 l c h i g a n , l l l i ' nois, aid 0h o, with a slighlly lo\!eT rate ol !r0wlh lhalr Kentucky (see Table 1).

The West conlinues to be lhe fastestgrowino reg on in the nat on, w lh its growlh rate 0f 12.5%

between 1990 and 1997. Nevadas growth 0f a mosl 40% between 1990 and 1997 makes it ilre fasl9st growinO state n lhe nation (see Figuro 2). ll has added 475,000 peopk slnce 1990, rnoving it past Nebaska to become the naton's 37tlr most populous state. In the rnost recenl year, between J! y l, 1996 a n d J u l y 1 , 1 9 g Z N e v a d a a d d e d 7 6 , 0 0 0 p s o p l e l 0 r a n

Figurc 2

Top Ten Slatos in Bale 0l Growlh,1gg0-1997 Joan naingy

Research D hector, lndian a Bu siness Re search Ce nte r, Kelley Schoal of Business,

Figufe 1

Twonty Yeats 0l Po0ulalion Growlh in Indiana 1 . 5

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o 0 . 5

3 o.o

t 0 - 1 5

* \ " / - - - * " -

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1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 ! Pe rcent C hange, 1 990-1 997

35 40 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 S 9 31 9 9 51 9 9 7

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annualqroMh rale 014.7%. This rnade itlhe fastest growing state in the nation forlhe 12th consecutive ytat.

other states wilh high groMh rates betwe€n 1990and 1997 IncludeArizona, ldaho, Ulah,C0l0- rado, Georgia, Washington, and Texas (see Fig0re 2 foractualates). Calitornlaand ToMs added the largest nlmbers.of people since 1990, with population incrcases olalmost2.5 million p€opl€ in each slate.

other states adding laroe numbers ol peopl€ include Florlda, Georoia, A 2ona, and Norlh Carolina.

The Dislricl ofCollmbia has expe enced ade- cline of almost 78,000 pooplo since 19g01or a loss rat8 0f12.8%. Connecticutand Rhode lsland hav€

also lost population b€twoon 1990 and 1992 Psnnsyl- vania expefienced lhs laru8st numerlcal population decline in the most rccenlyear botween July 1,1996 and July 1, i997, wilh its population loss 0f20,000 peopre In 0n€ y€ar

The Census Bueau estimated that the nalions population increased lrom 248.8 million in 1gg0to 267.6 million in 1997.Thelen most populous states are Califomia (32.3 million), Texas (19.4 million), New York (18.1 miilion), Fl0rida (14.7 milli0n), Pennsylva' nia (12.0 lnillion), lllinois {11.9 million),0hl0 (11.2 million), Michigan (9.8 milli0n), NewJeGey {8.1 million), and Georgia (7.5 milli0n).

Indiana, ranked as the 14th mostpopulous state with an estimatod 1997 population 0f 5.86 million, ls closelyfollowed by the stale ol Washington, with a 1997 population estimate 015.61 milllon. ln the most recenlyear behve€n 1996 and 1992 Indiana nnked asthe 29h faslesl growing state, al an annualnte ol 0.6%. Compare thls to Wash ington, the 8th {astest Orowino ltate wilh an annual nte of 1.6%, Assumifg thatihese annual rates wlll continuB fesults in a pro- Jecilon thatWashington willpass Indiana as iho14th

laroe$ slate inihs y6 2002.

U,S. National Average

n 7.6%

n

lndiana Average

5.8%

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The Suburbs: Fastest Growing Hoosier Counties

l n c e i h e 1 9 9 0 c e n s u s , t h e l a s t e s t g r o w n g c o u n t e s i n n d i a n a h a v e b e e n p r maily s u b u r b a n co!nties, according lo populalion eslimates rcleased lhis past l\Iarch 17 by tlre U.S. Bureau o l t h e c e n s u s ( s e e M a p 1 ) . 0 l In d i a n a ' s 9 2

olthe second lastest grow ng HooseI counly, Hen drcks. r lad Hamilton County wasihe fastestgrow_

ing counly ln the flve-slate region c0nsistinO of Ind - ana, lllinois. Kentucky, 0hio, and Miclrigan.

Other fasl-growing Hoosier couilies lnd!ded Hendricks Johnson, Dearborn, owen, Hancock, IVlor- q a n , J a s p e r , J e f n i n o s a n d W a s h i n q l o n ( s e e T a b l e 1 ) . Hamllon Counlyalso the led the state n popula- liof Orowth in the mosi recentyear, witlr more than 7 , 0 0 0 p e o p l e a d d e d - a r a t e 0 1 4 . 8 % b e t w e e n J u l y 1 , 1 9 9 6 a n d J u l y 1 , 1 9 9 7 o t h e r c o u n u e s e x p e r e n c n g growth over 2% in the most recent year ncluded Hendr cks, Switzerland. Dearbom, Johnson, [,4orqan, H a r i s o n . I l l a m , H a n c o c k , J e n n i i g s , a n d C a r r o l l

Recent popu aton grovr'th n Ii,4 am Counly is fotable In lacl, N/liami County has been the state's J o a n B a i n e y

Bese a rc h D iecto t, I nd tana B u sine ss Research Ce nte r, Kelley Schooi af Eusiness,

counties.49 !rewiasterthan the state belween 1990 and 1992 wth growth rates exceeding 5.8% (see Map 2).lwenty-seven coLinties expe enced popula- t o n g r o w t h b e t w e e n 1 % a n d 5 . 8 % , 1 1 c o u n t e s s h o w e d l t l l g p o p u a t i o n c h a n g e ( L e s s t h a i 1 % ) , a n d Iive count es expeTienced popL ation decline of more l h a n 1 % s l n c e t h e 1 9 9 0 c e n s u s .

H a m i l o n C o u n l y h d th e s t a t e i n p o p u a t 0 n i n - c r e a s e , b o l h i n n u m b e r s ( a l m o s t 4 6 , 0 0 0 m o f e p e o p l e ) a n d n g f o M h r a t e ( 4 2 . 1 % ) b e t w e e n 1 9 9 0 a n d 1 9 9 7 .

ts growth rale since the 1990 census was tw ce tlrat

lvlap 1 Map 2

lndiana County Population Change

Compared to Stale Average, 1990 to 1997 Indiana County Population Change Compared to National Average, 1990 to 1997

E Counli.r grealslhan sldle avqase

T

E

U . S , = 7.6%

Co u niies 9r6aler ihan nalional average counries less ihan national average I counries less than statsavease

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8th iastest growing county between 1996 and lggz Due 10 the restructuing of Grissom Air Force Base, lvliami Counly osl almost 4,700 people between 1 991 and 1995. But since 1995, redeveloprnent efforts may have conlribLrted tolhe counly's netoroMh ofabout 800 peop e,lor a 0roMh mte of 2.5%.

The Bureau's estimales indicaie thatlhe population ol Delaware County has d"lclined by 2,000 peopie sincethe 1990 census, Jor a loss rate of 1.7%.0lher counlies that experienced signilicanl populaiion de-

Tablo l

Ten FaslaslGrowln! Counllos In Indlara P0PUUT|qN |NCBEASE, 1990 T0 1997

Percent Change lncrcase in Nunber

42.1 45,849

2 1 . S 1 6 , 5 7 4

21.3 18,779

19.9 7,741

17.2 2976

16.6 7.544

15.9 8,867

1 5 . 0 3 , 5 5 6

15.0 3.737

14.4 3.426

cline included Gnnl (1,350 people,0r 1.8%), Vigo (1,167 people,0r l.l%), and Wabash (500 people,0r 't.6v,).

Inthe most recentyear, Ma on Counly's population actually declined by 1,200 people. lllarion County continuesloexperienceout-migration,with more people moving outofthe co!ntythan moving in,ln theJirst halfolthe 1990s, the county's naturajir- crease (births exce€ding deaths)resuiied ir a slight populalion groMh forlhe slate's most populous county. But b€tween 1996 and 1997, its estimated nel out-migrauon exceeded iis nalunllncrease, resulling in it6 population loss.

Theien largest Hoosiercounties in tems of pop!lation are l,4adon, Lake, Allen, St. J0seph, Elk- hart, Vanderbur0h, Harnilton, Porter, Tippecaioe, and Ivladlson. Th€ smallestare ohio, Union, Warren, Swit- ze and, and Benton, €ach wilh a population under 10,000, The 0roMh rate foreach oflhe 92 Hoosier countios is shown in Tablo 2.

ll is imporiantto noteihalthese populalion figures are estimates produced uslng a demographic modeland afe notth€ rssult ota dlr8ctattomptlo oo!nt popu ation, as h don6 in a censusyear Th€

1997 6tate and county ostimatos w6rc produc€d by lhe U,S. gureau oJthe Consus usiig tho Tax Roiun Molhod.

Hamilton H€nd cks Dsarboln 0u,6n ,rsnnngs

ll etr opo I i I a n St at i sti ca I A re a Indianapolis

Indianapolis Indianapolis Cincinnali Nol in an MSA lndanapolis lndianapolis Nol in an MSA Nol in an MSA Nol in an MSA

Tahl.2

Indi.m Rah 0l Gosth by county, 1990"199?

Adams 5.6

A l s n 3 . 7 Earlholomow 8.0

Bonton 1.2

Blacklord -0.3

Eoone 12,7

Srown 14.7

Carrcll 6.3

Cass 0,4

Clark 6.2

Clay 7.4

Clinlon 7.3

CraMod 5.9

Dav ess 4.8 Dearborn 19.9 Decalur 7.3 De Kalb 9.6

Dubois 6.9

Jetf€rson ,Jsnnrn0s Kosclusko Laorange

l\,ladlson lvlarshall Man n lvliami

Noble

Sulllvan Swllzorland Tlppocanoo Tlplon Vandefturuh vrs0

Elkharl

kanklln Fulton Gibson Gnnt Hamilton Nendricks Hunllnqlon

1 5 . 0 -0.521.3

7.8 1 1 . 0

0.8 1 . 9 6.3 0.9 2 . 1 7 . 5 1 , 4 - 1 0 . 0

1.0 5.4 1 5 . 9

8.4 10.7

0hlo 0rang9

Randolph Blpl6y Bush Sl-Joseph Scoit Shelby Spancar Slarke Stauben 9 . 3

0 . 5 1 1 . 0

2.4 10.2 8.0 0 . 1 -1.8

8.8 4 2 . 1 1 6 . 6 13.7 21.9 1 . 5 3.4 4 . 8 8.4 1 5 . 0

0.8

2.7 5.3 17.2 1 . 0 2 . 0 1 1 . 8

2 . 6 11.2 1 . 2 1 0 . 4

0.6 8.7 7 . 1 6.2 1 3 . 3

6.8 1 r . 6

5.9 1 . 1 4.2 1 . 1 t . 3

- l . l

'13.2 14.4 4 . 2

3.2 7.6 8.4

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Where Are They Coming From, Where Do They Go?

A Study ot Migration in 1995-1996

n d a n a s e s t m a i s d j n rn gration 0 1 1 2 0 . 0 0 0 a n d o L r l ' r n g n t i o n 0 1 1 1 0 , 0 0 0 p e o p e b e t w e e n 1 9 9 5 and 1996 resulted in a posi|ve net n-m gralion f l g u f e 0 l 1 0 0 0 0 . T h l s m e a n s t h a l a p p r o x m a l e l y 10,000 mofe people moved nto the stale than out ol I between 1 995 and 1996. This eslimated net n-nrigratlon ligure ol 10,000 0ave the state the 15th a r o e s t n u m b e r o l n e t i r - m l 0 r a n l s i n tl r e n a t 0 f .

Slates that had tlre greatest nrmber oi nel n_

m gnnts were in the Soutr and wesi Flor da

( 9 3 , 0 0 0 ) G e o r q i a ( 6 9 0 0 0 ) N o r l h C a r o l n a ( 6 7 , 0 0 0 ) , Arizona (59,000), Nevada (42 000), Texas (42 000).

and Tennessee (41 000) other stales experrencing n e t i n - m g m t o n o i 1 0 0 0 0 o r m o r e p e o p e n c L l d e d C o l o r a d o 0 r e ! o i , W a s h i n g t o n , M i s s o u r , A r k a n s a s . S o u l h C a r o l n a V i f O i n a , a n d n d r a n a .

Slates that had tlre argest number ol net 0ut_

m g r a n l s i n c l u d e C a l o r n i a w l t h 1 9 8 , 0 0 0 m o r e o u t rn granls than in m granls and Nevr York, wlh 160 000 more out rn granls than in-m granls lll nols, NewJersey, Penfsyvan a, Connect crl, the Dislricl ol Columb a, Lou siana, N'lassachuselts, and Hawa all e x p e r i e n c e d n e t o u l - m i g f a l i o n e x c e e d n g 1 0 , 0 0 0 . Nevada, the faslesl !rowin! slate n lne nai0n d u r n g t h e 1 9 9 0 s . h a d t h e h !hest c f u d e n e l m q r a t o n r a t e l r o m 1 9 g 5 l o 1 9 9 6 . a t 2 7 . 7 % T h s w a s t w i c e l h e n t e € x p e r i e n c e d b y s o c o n d p a c e A r i z o n a , w l n a r a l e o l 1 3 . 6 % . 0 t h e r s t a l e s w i t h h i g l r c r u d e n e t m i g r a l i o n r a l e s l n c l u d e d G e o r g i a ( 9 . 6 % ) , N o r t h C a f o i n a ( 9 3%), 0 r e o o n ( 8 . 8 % ) , C o o r a d o 1 8 . 0 % ) , d a h o ( 7 . 9 % ) , l e n n e s s e e 1 7 . 8 % ) . F l o r i d a ( 6 . 6 % ) , a n d N e w H a m p s h r e ( 5 8%).

Ind afa s crude net m lrat on rate from 1995 to 1996 vr'as 1.8%, ranklng it as the 25th hlChesl n the nat on. Ne ghbor ng states and tlreir rates ncluded K e n t u c k y ( 1 . 9 % ) , [ ] l c h g a n ( 0 . 1 % ) , 0 h i o ( - 0 7%), a n d l l l l n o i s ( . 4 0%)

T h e D s t r c l o f C o l u m b l a l r a d t h e m o s t n e o a t v e crude net m gralion rate, at -24 2%, iollolved by Hawaii(-8.9%), New York (-8.8%), Calilori a ( 6 3%), and Alaska (-6 0%)

J o a n E a i n e y

B eseat ch D ilt clar, I n d B n a BDsiness nesearch Center, Kclle! Schaol ol Bustness

M i g r a l i 0 n B e l w e e n I n d i a n a a n d o t h e r S l a l e s T h € a r 0 e s t n u m b e f o l n ' m i q r a n t s t o In d a n a \ \ r e r e lforn neiOlrbor ng slales: I ino s (19,600), 0hi0

( 1 1 5 0 0 ) K e f l u c k y ( 9 . 4 0 0 ) . a n d [ , 4 i c h i 0 a n ( 9 , 1 0 0 ) . l n d l a n a a s o a t t f a c t e d l a r q e n u m b e r s o J n e \ \ r r s s d e n l s t r o m F l o r i d a ( 7 9 0 0 ) C a J o r n i a ( 7 , 5 0 0 ) T e x a s ( 6 , 4 0 0 ) , l o r e g f countries ( 3 700) T e n n e s s e e ( 3 , 0 0 0 ) . a n d P e n n s y v a n i a ( 2 . 7 0 0 )

Hoos ers mov ng auay lended l0 m 0rale l0 n e ! h b o r n q s t a l e s o r l o l h e S o u t h o r W e s t l l l i n o i s ( 1 2 , 2 0 0 ) 0 l r i o ( 1 0 0 0 0 ) F l o r d a ( 9 , 7 0 0 ) N 4 i c h q a n 1 9 , 1 0 0 ) , K e n t u c k y ( 9 , 1 0 0 ) T e x a s ( 6 , 2 0 0 ) , T e n n e s s e e ( 4 , 8 0 0 ) , C a l i f o r n a ( 4 1 0 0 ) N o n h C a r o l n a ( 3 300).

a n d G e o r 0 i a ( 3 , 2 0 0 ) .

T h e a r q e s l n u m b e r o f n d i a n a s n e t i n - m i g r a n l s w e r e l r o n l l l i n o i s ( 7 , 4 0 0 ) , C a l i f o r n a ( 3 4 0 0 ) l 0 r e q f c o u n t r e s 1 1 . 8 0 0 ) , 0 h i o ( 1 , 5 0 0 ) , N e l v Y 0 r k ( 1 , 0 0 0 ) , P e n n s y l v a n i a ( 7 0 0 ) , a n d v r g i n a ( 6 0 0 ) . s t a t e s t h a t a c c o u n t e d I o r l h e a r 0 e s t n u m b e r o l n e t 0 u f m q r a n i s f r o m n d i a n a w e r e T e n n e s s e e ( 1 , 8 0 0 ) , F 0 r d a ( 1 . 8 0 0 ) , A r i z o n a ( 1 , 0 0 0 ) , S o u t h C a r o i n a ( 7 0 0 ) , N o n h c a r o l i n a ( 7 0 0 ) , a n d G e o r 0 i a ( 5 0 0 ) ( s e e M a p 1 ) .

Ind ana saw large nurnbers oi n miorants lrom and out-migrants lo ihe slates of Kentucky, Texas and [/]ichigan, butlh s did not result in arge nuirbers ol nel ml0raals The state experienced llle net in- m !rat on lroflr Texas and Kenlucky. Abouttlre same number oi peop e moved lrom Ind anato [,4icl]igan as rnoved irom I\,4 chl0an to Indlana, result ng in net rnigration between lhe two states ofabout zero Indiana County-to.Counly lvligration

lvlap 2 shows net ml0rat of for Hoosler c0unljes.

Those exper encin0 the largesi numbers of nel n- m 0 r a n t s n c l u d e H a m l l o n ( 4 , 8 0 0 ) H e n d f c k s ( 2 , 1 0 0 ) , J o h n s 0 n ( 1 , 6 0 0 ) , a n d P o r t e f ( 1 , 3 0 0 ) . T h o s e w i t h

Crude Net Miqmll0n Bales lorSlales

The crude nel mgration mte is caLcLrlated as 10l0!'/s:

CNMR - (net rn gmtionlolaL populaiion) x 1,000 The rssull s a ne1 m qral0n rale per 1,000 p0pu ation and aligure lhata ows lor qeographc c0mpans0ns.

Howlhe lns oeleminos Miglalion lrom lls Files

Countyto-counly mhal 0n flow dala are doveloped by the Interna R"'venull So c0 bv malcning soc a sscurly numbss oi pr mary laxpayers irom one year to tho nerl Th€ mosl receni data lr0m t h e l 8 S l / v o r o 0 b h i n e d b y m a t c h i n g r e d e r a l l a x r e i u m s l k d n 1 9 9 5 ( i o r i h e v e a r 1 9 9 4 ) w i l h l a t retrrnsj ed in 1996 (lorthe year 1995).

w l r e n a s o c a s m w v n u m b e r m a l c l r l s l o u n d , i h € c o u n l e s 0 i r c s d e n c o l 0 r l 9 9 5 a l r d 1 9 9 6 arc compared lo delerm ne it they aro lhs sarne.1illre coLrnll/ addresses match,lhen lheiaxpa}'ers numberoipersonalsxompionsa.e couited as non_migranls." lthe

counry arldresses do nol rnalch lhen ihe laxpaver s nurnber0j personalexempiions afe counied as '0ul_miqranis tromlhe c0unly lisled 0n ihe relumllled in 1s95and as"in_n gmnls nt0the c0unty lisled an tlre ft1urn i led in 1996

oala are based on incomelax returnstrcr'rihe RS's nd vdua Master Flh. Tlral masler 1 le ncludes a record ior aach IFS Fornr 1 0 4 0 . 1 0 4 0 A , a n d 1 ! 4 0 E 2 n d i v i d u a k x r e l u t n l l e d b y c i l k e n s a n d residenl al ens. Aclual migmtion ilows may b0 underslated, slnc€tax reiurnsthai did n0t match based on social securil\l numb"'r ar"' not i0cLrded.l\4oieover,addilonalpooplanoirepresented nlhedalaset includetlrose noi requ red lo j le tax leiurns because lhe r nco.1re was belowthe required minimum i0riiling, pe0ple v/h0se 0nLv incomewaslrom socia s".curily payrnents, peopewlrose nc0fiewas primari y jrom a vesled nterest in a retirement p an, and mm$nnts

(10)

positive netmigmtion belween 500 and 900 included Illorgan, Hancock, Pulnam, Clark, Waftjck, and Starke.

Thosewiththelarqestnumberolnetout-migants wore [,larion (5,600] and take (2,700).

Hamllton Counly

Hamllton County hds been tho lastost growing Indiana counly in the1990s. Betwoon 1995 and 1996, il had In-migntlon 0f 15,000 and out-mlgration 0110,200 for a net in-migmtion estlmate 0f4,800 people.

Aboui 59% 0f those movino into Hamilton County were rrom oiior Hoosler colnties, wllh 38%

of tho in-mlgBnts comino from neighboring l4arion County.AboutS0% ot the pooplo moving outof Ham-

ilton County moved to olher Indiana counties, with 29% of the out-mioianls movingto l\4arion Couty.

Wlth 5,700 in"migrantslrom [rarion Countyand almost3,000 out-miqrantsto Marion County, the net in-migraiion of moro than 2,700 peopletrcm lllarion to Hamilton countlos account€d 10r58% 0t Hamilton County's tolal nel in-m igfatior figu ro.

The laruost numbor 0l in-mlorants lo Hamilton Countyfrom other statos wor€ from lllinois (520), 0hi0 (380), ltllch'gan {320), Califonia (310), Florida (150), and Texas (120). The largest numb€r of out"

mlonnts movlng to other stalet went t0 Teras (360), 0hi0 (240), Fio da(220),lllinob (170),Arizona (160), and Georoia (130).

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Indiana Migration 1995 to 1996

Migraton into and out of Indiana

n Nel is'donln: 7441lo 10s t00lo 100

Nsl Migmlion O!! '119t0-1830

(11)

ttdp2

lndiana Net Migration by County,

1995 to 1996

f] Ner In,a822ro 100 Pe6ois

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(12)

Stales that accounted lor lhe largest number of net in-migrafts (atleraccounting for outfow)to Ham- llton County included llinos (350), Callforfia (200), N4ichigan (200), and 0hio (150). Slates accountinq lor the largesl numbet oi netout-m grantsftom

Hamilton County included Texas 1240), Arizona (90), Florida (60), and Geofgia (60).

Marion Colnty

l\,larion Couf ty experienced modef ate population growth between 1990 and 1996, despile its negat ve net migration. Thh is because the co!ntys naiual

ncrease (birlhs m nus dealhs) exceeded ls nel out- miqation figure. Belween 1995 and 1996, [4arion Countywas eslimated lo have experienced in_migIa_

lion 0f37,800 people and oul-rnigration 0f43,400 peopk lor a nsl out-migration est male of 5,600.

About 54% 0lthe people moving irto l\4aion Co!nty w€reifom olher Hoosier couftiss, wilh 33%

of its total in"mignfh from its eighl surrounding cornties. Sixty percent olihe people mov ng 0!l weft to other ndiana counties, with 46% of ils tolal 0ul- mignnls moving lo one oflhe eght ieighboring c0!nres,

0ithe 20,000 people movlng ifom l\ilarion Co!ntyto a neiqhboring co!nty, the largest numbers of people endod up n Hamiilon (5,700), Hendficks (4,100), and J0hns0n (4,100) c0!nties.

[4a 0.] Countys n"migration from and out' migaton to olhof slaies was balanced, with appfoxi- malely 17,500 people movifg lrom lherc to other stales, and with ihe same n!mber ol peope movino lrom othersiates ifto the coufty. The largest number of in-mi0nnls from oiher states werelrom lLlinoh (1,600), Callorfla (1,400),0h o (1,400), Fl0 da (1,100), Texas (900), and [4ich gar (700). Tho laruest numberof oul-mlgrants ifom Marion counly moved to Florida (1,400),0hio (1,200), llinois (1,000), Texas (800), and Calilomla (800).

Statesthataccounted lorthe argest number 0t net if-m grants to i\llarlon counly inc uded ca ifornia (700), lllinois (600), and 0hi0 (300). Sialesihatac- co!nted forthe ar0est number oJ net o!l-migrants

fiom l\larion Countywere Soulh Carolina (400), Florida (300), and Nodh Carolina (200).

Lalo County

Like [4arior County, Lake County has grown slightly since the 1990 carsus, desp le its negative iet mlgration, due to natural increase. Between 1995 and 1996, it exper enced in-miqrat 0n of 14,000 and oul-miqra_

tion of 16,700, for a net out-rnioration est male of 2,700 people.

Lake Counly expe enced nel out-migration to other Hooser countes, nel in-m gration trcm the state ol l1 inois, and net oul-m gralion to other stales belween 1995 afd 1996. About 2,800 peop e moved fiom other lrdiana countes inlo Lak€ Counly, while 6,400 people moved from Lake Counlyto olher Hoo- sierco!nties, Jor a nel out-migal0n o13,600 people.

The lafgssl fumber of Hoosiels that moved belween Lake Counlyand other Ind ana counties weft to orlrcm Porl€r County,lhe neighbofto lhe east.

Sixteen hundred people, of57% oflho Hoosiefs who moved nto Lake County, were ifom PoderCouniy, whereas 3,300 people, or 5l% ofthe Lake County residents who rnoved lo other lrdiana counlies, ended !p in PoftorCounty. The resultwas net ni0Ta- tion from Lake to Poder Counly ol abolt 1,700 people.

Duf ng ihe sanre year,6,600 people moved irom llllnols to Lako County, whie 3,200 mov€d lfom Lake Counly to llnois. This resu led in a n€t In-migaton estirnah 013,400 peop e.

With netoul-m Oratlof 0f3,600 peopleto other lndiafa counues, and with fet in-mi0raton ol3,400 poop e from lllifois, the overallrnigration piclurefor Lako Counly h competed by looking ai rnigratiof eslimates beiween lhe county and states oth€rthan

llno s. Lake Coufty experienced netoul-m gralion wth other siates;iis n-migration est mah o14,600 ard oul-m oralion estimate oi 7,100 accounhd lor a net out-migalion ll0ure of 2 500 people. The laroest numbers ot net out-migrants hom Lake County were accounted for by the siates oi Florida (300), Texas (200),l\rlnnesota (200), Arizona (200), and Georgia (100).

(13)

Carcl 0. Rogsrs

Editor and lnlormation Services Di rectat, I ndiana Bu sine ss Research Centet Kelley School of Business, lndiana Unive$iu

the Census Bureau has developed to help elimirate, orat least reduce, the ditferentia undercount. The naton as a who e was undercounted by 1,6% in the 1990 census. A good question might beilfthey know how mafy peoplethey rnissed, why couldn'lthey countthem in the filsl place?We , some p€ople dont wanl lo answerthe census, This has become a Otow- ing pfoblem asthe proliferaUon ol mailafd telephone calls increaseslor many households. Some people don'lpafi cipah becalse theydon'twantto be

"tound," as it \{ere. And explaining lhatthe census is conl dential doesn't always convince p9ople. Altho!gh follow-up procedures arc used t0 qeta questionnaire backifom ev€ry holrsghold, there is only so much time arld moneythat can be spenitry ng t0 get people t0 answer tlte census,

Census 2000 Update

wo years away and the 2000 census ls al- readya politically char0ed one. Why is sanr- plilrg for non-response such a hol issue?

Sampling for non-resporse and integnted coven0e measurcment are hvo lechniques

what Can Indiana Do to G€l a Complele Counl in 2lm?

Loca communities cin pancoaie n LLICA-lhe Loca ljpdat€ ol Census Aadr6sai Tl's savolun- tary oppoftunityto checl he cen$s ddfess isllo ensurcthatevery housing onil6 ra!(,i+l'ar and evenlually rcceives a queslionnaire ln F*,1a.. :!ge the highesl elecled olliciaiin every cosrty. o! ior:

and township in lndiana received a letter ho.n up Census Burcar asking for padicipation. So hr.lst olthose officials have responded; of those, 53% h&!

indicaled theyw lparlicipate (see the map).

Communities can also crcale Complete Count committees, garnering suppod from qovernment, business, education, the media, and localcllizens to oettlre word oirtaboutthe census in 2000 and the importance offilling oLrtand returning the questionnaire. ll you wantlo know more abouttheselwo specific activities, pease coitact us atthe IBRC (317' 274-2979) or conlact the Census Bureau at 1-888' 688-6948 (tollfree).

The Census Bureau has senl lhe queslions for 2000i0 Congress. There willbe the 100% lom. The shorl lorm inc udes ssven qlostons, compared lo 13 in 1990. The long fom has 52 quesliofs, cornpared to 57 in 1990. The questionnaire its€lJ, as il stands in draftlorm, is a majof mprcvement over pastfofms ir tems of usor-friefdliness. The type is blgger, yoLr don't havoto soafch yourchld's backpack lor a #2 ponc to fillit oul, and tlre questions are easieTto urderstand. tr,lore lhan 300 millon quosllonna rcs w ll be printed. PrlntinO hasto bogin in April1999 n0rder forthe formsto be ready to mal out in lvlafch 2000.

Every one ot the 120 mi iof estimated househo ds in 2000 wllrcceive ihe mailing twce. Belleve il or not, this wastound lo be tar cheaper than tryin0 to send a second Jomr onlyio lhose households that have not rcsponded bythetargel date. To ensurc thateveryone has a chance to be co!nted, "Be Counled"lorms wi be wrdely avarable.

olhor Can60l l{awr

The American Community Survey has selecled 37 addltionalsites in which 10 coiducl lests in 1999.

Two oithose are in ndiana-l!'liamiand Lake counties. Public meet ngs aboul lhe teslsv/ere held in earlyJune and garnered ihe interesl ot citirens. business peope,lhe media, economic developeG. ulili tes, and olhers who need census-t/pe intormation on a more regu ar basis. lllunding conlinues for tltis s!rvey, cornm!nitiesacross lodianacould rcceive income, education levels. employmenl, commut ng, and othertypes ol data on an annualbasis, ratlrer than every 10 yeafs. The basic idea is to eveniually replacelhe long iorm ol the ten-year census ano provide infomalior on a more timely basis.

LUCA PanlclDanls hy Cot|nty

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0peratlon fftlli Tax Educalion Nqsl

00eaton IEIV is an un0rccedenled coalilion ofeconomic educators lrom ihe universilies ol Indiana.

operation lElll has no agenda and will make n0 rocommondalions or pruvide any endorsemenls.

operation IEIV willprovide neLrtral, non'partsan informalior tolhe cjlizens ol Indianaabouithe finances ol their slate and localgovernments. The goalof operalion lEll/ is to stimulale an iiformed discussion aboLrt financin0 state and local Oovenment activ ties.

The objecUvosaro to educate people of allages about:

. how Indiana stah and local goverrments raise and spend money;

. cufient issuos n Indiana and local I scal policy;

. alhfnatve means offinancing stah and localactivities.

,peration TEN is r,ol an atgarization, but an activity lnvolvin0:

> The Indlana Eusinoss Fos€arch Cenlor ( BRC) ln the Kelley School of Business at ndiana [Jniver- sity. For morc than T0yearsth€ lERC has provided economic and demographic analysislorthe peoplo and blsinossos of lndlafa. The Kelley Schoolislhe fiscalaoenl lor operatior lElll.

> Tho Indiana Counolllor Eoonomic Eduoolion (ICEE), a pa nerchip of 12 universlty centorc around Indlana, founded in 1954 and coordinated by Plrdue lJnivelsity. Each ye ils progams invol!€

m0Te Inan 5.uuu Ieacn€rs an0 Suu.uuu su0enls.

> Facully membeB oi Indlana lJniverclty, Purdus lJnivorsiiy, lUPUl, Ball Siate, Indiana State Univer- sly, lu Northwesl, and other institltions of highor earning work with ICEE on a reoular bass.

> ThE Conlerlor Uftan Pollcy andiha Envho[menl n the Schoolof Publ]c and Envirci mental Affairs at luPUl hasworked wilh local governments afd citizen 0ro!ps to increase awareness ot citical hsues throLrghout the l\,,lidwost.

> Tho C0oporallvo Exlonslon Soflrlco in tho SchoololAgficulture at P!dle Un versity willbe among tho load agencles conductifo public meelings in all 92 Indiana counli€s.

For more informaiion about how 0peration IE|t/works and what it can do jn yo!r communily,

call 81 2-855"5502

Contributions t0 0peration fF /may be made to the lU touodalion and senttoi lndiara Buslnoss Rosoarch Conlsr

501 N. Morlon She€l Suile 110

Bloomington, Indiana 47404

t l

(15)

ffi

: . 1 , - _ : . : .

County Profiles.

tind in.ome, population,

e.onomic structure of a

;acts lrom Uo toGt[ool:

Manufacturing generaGs 32% of lndiana's iob earnings' with the state ranking 8th in the nation in earnings from th€ production of nondurable goods.

Indiena ranks ftieh (l3th) in permitliling for single family homeq this is a state \ryhere 70% of Hoosiers 6re

Population growth of 2.6% ot oacurred in most Indiana counties in the 1990s. But which .ounties aren't growingl Find it in the Fa.tbook.

countt at a glance through tables lnd graPhs in a handt two-page fonnat lor each of the 92 counties and a profile ol the state.

County

Comparisons,

ljnderstand th€ siructure of a counry in tems of its people and e.onony through these .ounty-to-co!trtycoriPafsons. nanks ind trcnds show wher€ a countl has been and h.lpyou see where it niSht be headed. aps and graphs provide insights into count), hight

lndiana and the Nation,

Put Indi.na into rontext Yrith iti n€ighbors and the

nrtion with th€se cobparative t bles & graPhic Ot Indiana's 92 counties,43 hav€ a poPulation density of

lewer than 80 people per squar€ mile.

Income inareased in the maiority of lndiana's coonti€s (64) by at least 12.5% during the latest t€n year Period.

Support for printing Proided bf llorthem lndiana Public Senice Comparyl Hoosier Energy E.E.C. lnc., and Cinerg4tP5l lndianz

lhe Factbookis oroduced btr the Indiana Business Research Center at the

Indiana Univenity l(elley lchool of Busines for the Indiana Department of Commerce.

't2

(16)

lndlana 0uslnoS$

July 1998 Nonprotlt 0rganlzatlon

U.S. Posiage PAID

Bloomlnglon,Indlana Permit No,2

Indiana Busln6s6 B6soarch Conter Indiana Univ€rslty Rosoarch Park 501 N, N,lorlon, Sult6110 Bloominglon, lN 47404-3730

ADDFESS CORRECTION REOUESTED

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Indiana - Business