The Moderation Role of Dividend Per Share on the Relationship between Earning Per Share and Return on Equity on Stock
Prices
Muh. Nur a,1,*, Ummy Kalsum a,2, Mahmudin A. Sabilalo a,3, Laode Sahili a,4, Rince Tambunan a,3
a Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Enam Enam, Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia
1 muh.nur363@gmail.com* ; 2 umykalsumbppdn2014@gmail.com, 3 mahmudinstie66@gmail.com, 4laodesahili25@gmail.com,
5rincetambunanstie66kdi@gmail.com
* corresponding author
I. Introduction
The use of signaling theory in this study can be described that the company's financial statements are a source of information that can be a signal or sign for investors. Signal theory is the action of a company's management to provide an indication to investors about how management assesses the prospects for the company. Signal theory is used to explain that basically financial statements are used by companies to give positive or negative signals to users [1]. The annual report becomes information issued by the company and will be a signal for parties outside the company. Companies need to disclose financial statements openly and transparently so that their shares are bought by investors, because any information presented as an announcement will be considered a signal for investors to invest. [2]. Complete and accurate information can be used by investors in the capital market in analyzing and making investment decisions. If the information is positive, the market will react and there will be changes in the market related to stock prices.
Stock price assessment is very important and fundamental for investors before investing because stocks are one of the most promising types of investments for investors. The stock price is determined by the supply and demand for the stock itself. Shares are in the form of a piece of paper that explains that the owner of the paper is the owner of the company that issued the securities [3].
Shares can be defined as a sign of participation or ownership of a person or entity in a company or
ARTICLE INFO A B S T R A C T
Article history:
Received 31 Ags 2022 Revised 6 Sept 2022 Accepted 13 Okt 2022
This study examines and proves whether there is an effect of Dividend Per Share (DPS) in moderating the relationship between Earning Per Share (EPS) and Return on Equity (ROE) on stock prices in food and beverage sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2019-2021. This type of research is associative research. The sampling technique used is purposive sampling. The data used is secondary data in the form of financial statements. This data will be analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis method, namely descriptive statistical method used to analyze data for more than two research variables. To test the regression with moderating variables using the Moderating Regression Analysis (MRA) Test. Hypothesis testing used is t-test, F-test, and coefficient of determination (R2). This study produced four findings as stated in the research hypothesis. First, Earning Per Share (EPS) has a significant effect on stock prices. Second, Return on Equity (ROE) has no significant effect on stock prices. Third, the interaction variable Earning Per Share (EPS) with Dividend Per Share (DPS) is a moderating variable, so that DPS can strengthen the relationship between Earning Per Share (EPS) on stock prices.
Fourth, the interaction variable Return On Equity (ROE) with Dividend Per Share (DPS) cannot strengthen the relationship of Return On Equity (ROE) to stock prices.
Copyright © 2022 International Journal of Artificial Intelegence Research.
All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Earning Per Share (EPS), Return On Equity (ROE), Dividend Per Share (DPS), Stock Prices
limited liability company. Shares are in the form of a piece of paper that explains that the owner of the paper is the owner of the company that issued the securities. The portion of ownership is determined by how much investment is invested in the company [4].
The stock price of a company can also be influenced by the condition of the company or the company's performance. The better the company's performance, the more the company's profits will increase, and then it will increase profits for investors, resulting in an increase in stock prices [5].
Investors make investments with the aim of getting profits from the shares purchased, in the form of dividends and capital gains. Dividends are company profits that are distributed to investors, while capital gains are the difference in stock prices when selling and buying the shares [6].
Stock prices in the capital market will always change according to market conditions. Factors that affect stock prices include, firstly, the issuer's fundamental condition related to the condition of the company such as organizational management and corporate finance, and the law of supply and demand can also affect the stock price of buying and selling transactions. [7]. Regarding stock prices, the following are the phenomena that occurred in several food and beverage sub-sector companies during 2018-2020 as follows:
Fig. 1. The Phenomenon of Stock Price Movements (2018-2020) Source: Data processed, 2022
It can be seen in the table above that the value of changes in the company's changes are quite low, this indicates that the company's performance is not optimal enough in carrying out company activities, this will also certainly have an impact on investor assessment in assessing whether or not the company is a means of investing, of course this indicates that stock prices can be influenced by several fundamental factors such as earnings per share (EPS) and dividends per share (DPS). The company distributes dividends which is an indicator of the company's financial fundamentals, where these indicators are often used as a reference for making investment decisions in stocks. So before deciding on an investment to buy shares of a company, investors need a variety of information that will be analyzed in order to make the right decision. Two types of information are important signals for assessing the company's prospects, namely profits and dividends.
Describing the relationship between variables through signal theory, for investors, information about Earning Per Share (EPS) and Dividend Per Share (DPS) is a very basic need in decision- making needs. Such information can reduce the uncertainty and risk that may occur, so that the decisions taken are expected to be in accordance with the desired goals. To be able to invest in the Capital Market, an investor certainly needs information related to the company. One of them is the EPS information of a company which shows the amount of the company's net profit which is ready to be distributed to all shareholders [8].
Earning Per Share (EPS) is a ratio that provides information about the share of earnings for each share. The higher the value of EPS, the greater the profit provided to shareholders and the possibility of increasing the amount of dividends received by the company's shareholders [9]. Earning per share (EPS) or earnings per share is a ratio that shows the profit share for each share owned by the company. Earnings per share shows how well the company is making a profit. According to [8]
Earning per share is the ratio per share or also called the book value ratio is a ratio to measure the success of management in achieving profits for shareholders. In addition, according to [10] Earnings per Share is the portion of the company's net income which is allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. Based on the theory above, it can be concluded that Earning per Share is a ratio that
describes the company's ability to generate earnings per share obtained from the company's operational activities. If the company has the ability to generate profits, investors will be interested in buying the shares and will make the market price of a company increase [9]. High earnings per share reflects that the company is successful in managing its finances, so that it can distribute profits in the form of dividends and increase the interest of shareholders to invest [11].
According to signal theory, the relationship between EPS and stock prices is a positive relationship. The higher EPS value encourages investors to invest more capital because the yields delivered to shareholders also increase [12]. Increased profits have an impact on increasing share prices because investors have an increased interest in the company's shares. Research conducted by [13] which states that Earning Per Share (EPS) has a positive effect on stock prices. However, the results of this study are not in line with research conducted by [14] which states that the EPS variable has no effect on stock prices.
Return On Equity (ROE) is a ratio used to measure the ability of own capital to generate profits for all shareholders, for common stock and preferred stock. The higher the ROE value, of course, it will attract investors to invest in the company concerned because it indicates that the company has good performance and as a result the stock price will also increase. [3]. According to [15] revealed that an increase in ROE is usually followed by an increase in the company's stock price. The higher the ROE means the better the company's performance in managing its capital to generate profits for shareholders.
Dividend Per Share (DPS) is earnings per share which is distributed to a number of ordinary shareholders who are outstanding and held by the shareholders, where the dividends can be distributed in the form of debt securities, cash, assets and shares. [16]. Dividend Per Share (DPS) describes the dividend gain from each share, thus a high DPS indicates that the company has good opportunities. Dividend per share is a ratio that measures how much dividends are distributed compared to the number of shares outstanding in a given year. Dividends per share are direct cash returns to shareholders i.e., how much dividend each share holds for the accounting period. Based on the theory stated above, it can be concluded that the dividend per share is a ratio that describes the amount of dividend per share that will be distributed on the profits that have been obtained by the company in one accounting period to shareholders [17].
In this study, the object under study is a go public company in the food and beverage sub-sector, the main reason why the object of this research was chosen for the food and beverage goods sub- sector is because it has a very strategic role in the effort to prosper people's lives, where the product is indispensable for daily needs. -day. the food and beverage sector produces basic needs products that are needed by the community, with the high demand in the food and beverage consumption goods sector having an impact on the ability to generate optimal profits. So that investment in the consumer goods industry is a promising investment in Indonesia.
Fig. 2. Research Conceptual Framework ROE (X2)
STOCK PRICE (Y) EPS (X1)
DPS (M)
H1
H2
H3
H4
II. Method
This study uses a quantitative approach. The population in this study are food and beverage sector go public companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2019-2021, as many as 26 companies. The sampling technique in this study used a purposive sampling technique.
According to [18], purposive sampling is a sampling technique based on certain criteria. Based on the above criteria, of the 26 companies that went public in the food and beverage sector that became the population there were only 10 companies that met the criteria, but there were also companies whose data was damaged and excluded from the test, so the number of samples in this study was 10 x 3 = 30 data. sample company financial statements for the research period 2019 - 2021.
Table 1. Operational definitions and measurement of variables
Variable Definition Proxy Scale
Earning Per Share Earning per share is a ratio to assess the potential income received.
EPS = Earning After Tax Number of outstanding shares
Ratio
Return on Equity Return on Equity is an ability that shows how big the contribution of capital in creating net profit.
ROE = Earning After Tax Owner's equity
Ratio
Dividends per share
Dividends per share to assess how much total dividends are
distributed per share.
DPS = Cash Dividend Number of outstanding shares
Ratio
Stock Price The stock price is a price formed from the interaction of sellers and buyers of shares against the background of expectations of the company's profit.
Closing Price Ratio
a. Source: Data processed, 2022
This study uses multiple regression analysis (multiple regression method) and or what is commonly called or uses ordinary least square regression (least squares method), then the Interaction Test is carried out with Moderated Regression Analysis, namely the application of multiple linear regression where the equation contains elements of interaction ( multiplication of two or more independent variables) used to analyze earnings per share (X1) and Return On Equity (X2) as independent variables, dividends per share (M) as moderating variable on stock price (Y) as dependent variable. The multiple linear regression equation is as follows:
Y = α+ β1X1 + β2X2 + β3M + e Y = α+ β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X1*M + β4*M + e Information :
Y = Stock Price
X1 =Earnings per share X2 =Return On Equity M =Dividends per share
III. Result and Discussion
The value of earnings per share, return on equity, dividends per share, and stock prices in food and beverage sub-sector go public companies listed on the IDX for the 2019-2021 period can be seen in the following Fig.3:
Fig. 3. Earnings Per Share of Food and Beverage Industry 2019-2021 Source: Data processed, 2022
The highest level of earnings per share is in the company PT. Sekar Laut Tbk in 2021. This shows that the higher the value of earnings per share, the higher the share price. While the value of the lowest earnings per share is in the company PT. Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk. In 2020. This shows that the lower the value of earnings per share distributed, the stock price will be lower.
Fig. 4. Return On Equity of Food and Beverage Industry 2019-2021 Source: Data processed, 2022
The highest ROE level is in the company PT. Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk (MLBI) in 2019 reached an ROE of 24.67% This shows that the higher the ROE value is accompanied by the high closing share price in 2019 of Rp. 15,500. While the lowest is in the company PT. DLTA of 4.02%
in 2021.
Fig. 5. Dividends Per Share for Food and Beverage Industry 2019-2021 Source: Data processed, 2022
Based on graph 4 above, it can be seen that the highest level of dividend per share is in the company PT. Nippon Indosari Corporindo Tbk. In 2021. This shows that the higher the value of the dividend per share distributed, the more signal for investors to invest in shares. While the value of the lowest dividend per share is in the company PT. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. In 2019.
This shows that the lower the value of dividends per share distributed, investors will consider investing in shares. Because if the dividend distributed is high, it will increase the stock price, but on the contrary if the dividend distributed is low, then the stock will fall.
Fig. 6. Food and Beverage Industry Stock Prices 2019-2021 Source: Data processed, 2022
The highest level of share price is in the company PT. Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk in 2019 amounted to Rp. 15,500. While the lowest value is in the company PT. Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk in 2021 amounting to Rp. 147. Share prices in companies that go public in the food and beverage sub-sector each year have decreased and increased.
Table 2. Regression test results
b. Source: Data processed, 2022
The regression equation model that can be written from these results in the form of a standardized regression equation is as follows:
Y = α + β1X1 + β2X2 + e Y = 4.060 + 63,722X1 - 117,368X2 + e From the results of the regression equation above, it can be explained as follows:
1. The constant value of 4.060 indicates that if the independent variable is considered constant or equal to zero, then the stock price value is 4.060.
2. The regression coefficient of the earnings per share variable is 63,722 indicating a positive influence on the stock price variable, which means that if the stock experiences an increase in earnings per share (EPS) 1%, then the stock price tends to increase by 63.722 when other variables are constant.
3. The regression coefficient of the return on equity variable is -117,368 indicating a negative influence on the stock price variable, which means that if the stock has a 1% decrease in return on equity, the stock price will increase by -117.368 when the other variables are constant.
Then it is known that the coefficient of determination R2 = 0.228 or 22.8% the effect of earnings per share and return on equity on stock prices, while the remaining 87.2% is influenced by other factors not examined in this study.
Table 3. Moderation Test Results (MRA) Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardize
d Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant) 5964,733 1667,667 3,577 ,001
EPS 133,613 46,320 ,953 2,885 ,008
ROE 71,839 115,011 ,097 ,625 ,538
DPS -153,963 58,408 -,670 -2,636 ,014
Model Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant) 4060,255 1688,881 2,404 ,023
EPS 63,722 23,729 ,454 2,685 ,012
ROE -177,368 -125,091 -,159 ,938 ,356
R = 0.477 R2 = 0.228 FCount = 3,979 Sig = 0.031
EPS*DPS 3,485 1,293 1,072 2,694 ,012
ROE*DPS -3,119 9,751 -,144 -,320 ,752
R = 0.659 R2 = 0.433 Fcount = 4,789 Sig = 0.005
The Moderation Regression Analysis equation model that can be written from these results in the form of a standardized regression equation is as follows
Y = 5.964,73+ 133,61EPS + 71,83ROE - 153,96DPS + 3,485EPS*DPS - 3,119ROE*DPS + e
Discussions
A. The Effect of EPS on Stock Prices
Based on the results of his research, it can be concluded that there is a positive and significant effect between the X1 variable (EPS) on the Y variable (stock price), because the results show that tcount> ttable (2,685>1,985) with a significance level of 0.012 (<0.05), so the hypothesis The first (H1) is said to be right so that it is said that the level of Earning per share (EPS) will have an impact on increasing stock prices. This shows that earnings per share partially affect the stock price of publicly listed companies in the food and beverage sub-sector on the Indonesian stock exchange.
Earning per share is the net income per share of a company. Increased earnings per share illustrates that the company has succeeded in increasing investor prosperity and this will encourage investors to increase the amount of capital invested in the company and ultimately the increase in the number of requests for shares will encourage share prices to rise [19]. The results of this study are not in line with [14] which states that earnings per share have no effect on stock prices. So it can be concluded that the value of earnings per share affects the interest of potential investors in investing in shares.
B. The Effect of ROE on Stock Prices
Based on the results of his research, it can be concluded that there is a negative and insignificant effect between the X2 variable (ROE) on the Y variable (stock price), because the results show that tcount > t table (0.938 <1.985) with a significance level of 0.356 (> 0.05), so the first hypothesis (H1) is said to be rejected. The results of this study are in line with [3] and [9] that ROE has a negative effect on stock prices, this indicates that investors in investing in stocks do not consider ROE as a decision to buy shares. Investors tend not to use fundamental analysis in their decision making but to use reference groups, experience and follow the movement of speculation in investing, indicating that psychological factors from investors play an important role in making investment decisions. [20].
C. DPS moderates the relationship between EPS and stock prices
Based on table 2 shows that the t-count for the EPS*DPS variable is 2.694 with a significance value of 0.012. Because the significance value obtained is 0.012 < 0.05, the t value obtained is significant. This means that H3 is accepted, which states that Dividend Per Share (DPS) can moderate the relationship between Earnings Per Share (EPS) and share prices in companies engaged in Food and Beverage listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the period 2019 -2021. The findings of this study are not in line with the research [21] and research [22] that Dividend Per Share (DPS) cannot moderate the relationship between Earnings Per Share (EPS) and stock prices in companies engaged in Food and Beverage listed on the IDX in the period 2013-2017.
D. DPS moderates the relationship between ROE and stock prices
Based on table 2 shows that the t-count for the ROE*DPS variable is -0.320 with a significance value of 0.752 (>0.05). Because the significance value obtained > 0.05, the t value obtained is not significant. This means that H4 is rejected, which states that the Dividend Per Share (DPS) is not able to moderate the relationship between ROE and stock prices in companies engaged in Food and Beverage listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the period 2019-2021. This research is not in line with [23] that dividend policy strengthens the relationship between profitability and stock prices. Dividend policy strengthens the positive relationship Return on equity (ROE) to shares. ROE is a profitability ratio that describes the company's ability to generate net profit after tax by using its own capital. The higher the ROE, the higher the profit level of the owner of the company. The high
level of profit of the owner of the company will increase the company's EPS and can increase the company's ability to pay dividends.
IV. Conclusion
This study aims to determine the effect of EPS and ROE on stock prices, as well as the moderating effect of DPS on the relationship between EPS and ROE on stock prices. Based on the analysis of the data above, the researchers concluded that: EPS has a positive and significant effect on stock prices, ROE has a negative and insignificant effect on stock prices, DPS can moderate the relationship between EPS and Stock Prices, DPS cannot moderate the relationship between EPS and Stock Price
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