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MODERATION VARIABLES FOR STOCK RETURNS, TRADING ACTIVITY, AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

By:

Masno Marjohan Universitas Pamulang, Banten

E-mail:

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to determine the financial performance that influences transaction volume activity and the financial performance that influences stock returns as moderation in retail. The data used by the researchers is secondary data in the form of annual accounts of retail companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. This survey method, which targets 21 trading companies, uses multiple regression analysis methods. The two dependent variables in the analysis of financial performance have a negative impact on TVA and are not significant, but the intervening variables do not affect stock returns and do not have a large impact. Together or concurrently, they had no positive or insignificant impact on TVA, but the remaining 72.1% were influenced by other factors not examined in this study and together or concurrently had a positive effect on stock returns. had a significant effect, whereas the remaining 85.9% were affected. by other factors not considered in this study. The study combines financial performance with trading volume and stock returns to give investors a more comprehensive understanding of their stock investment decisions to achieve capital gains. Practical/political implications (optional): The results have practical and functional implications for investors, especially when analyzing purchase price decisions for selected stocks. Stock selection should be taken into account in investment analysis. When investors are not convinced that financial performance is a material factor.

This investor maximizes investment returns (capital gains) in the future.

keywords: Financial performance, trading activity, and stock returns

1. INTRODUCTION

At this time, the retail business has undergone a change, that is, there has been a shift from the concept of independent local shops or shops on the main street to the situation of national and international scale stores in the form of modern shopping centers, supermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores and so

on. Retail businesses that are not ready for the influx of new entrants with better and more attractive appearances, modern technology, and better management, are likely to lose the competition. In managing the retail business, it is not just opening a store and preparing complete goods, but more than that.

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Retail company rill sales index for 2017-2021

Figure 1.1 shows that the Rill Sales Index (IPR) fell 16.8% in 2020. This figure is worse than the 2019 IPR and even the lowest index in five years. The index reveals that the impact of the pandemic is impacting corporate sales.

Trading Volume Activity (TVA) reflects the survey's dependent variable, stock liquidity. The frequency of trading has a large impact on the number of shares outstanding, which indirectly affects the trading volume of the stock. This is due to high investor interest. Technical analysis is the technique of predicting the direction of movement of stock prices and other stock market indicators based on historical market data such as stock quotes and stock trading volume or trading volume activity (TVA) (Tandelilin, 2017).

Literature review and hypotheses financial performance

Financial performance is one of the most important things in the business world when it comes to companies, both internally and externally. Financial

reporting is an integral part of evaluating a company's performance.

A retail business is one of the most common types of businesses formed. This is because the mechanisms tend to be the simplest. Examples of retail stores include supermarkets, convenience stores, grocery stores, and online stores. Retail stores typically sell essential items such as groceries, appliances, and clothing.

According to Agnes Sawir (2005:

6) As explained before, financial indicators are necessary for all owners or managers of the company and investors to analyze the development of the business.

Munawar (2012:31) said its purpose was to measure the company's financial performance.

1. Know your liquidity level. This liquidity shows that the company can meet the financial obligations it needs to meet immediately after the invoice.

2. Knowledge of the degree of solvency. This solvency indicates a company's ability to meet its

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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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financial obligations in the event of liquidation in the short and long term.

3. Knowledge of profitability.

Profitability, also called profitability, indicates the ability of a company to generate profits over a period of time.

4. Know the steady state. This stability indicates the company's ability to conduct business stably given its ability to repay its debts in a timely manner and pay interest on its debts.

Volume activity

One indicator for studying investor behavior during an event is to look at trading volume. Stock trading volume (trading volume activity) is a description of a stock's liquidity. As trading volume increases, so does the number of shares traded. A stock that is actively traded in the market makes the stock liquid.

Trading volume is the sum of all trades made on the relevant market for the relevant security at that point in time and is the single most important factor influencing a security's price volatility. An important consideration in determining the direction of stock price movement is trading volume. When a security's price is not communicated to market operators, the trading volume serves as key information

to predict the future price of that security (Mahajan and Singh, 2018).

Stock return

The definition of stock yield is the difference between the selling price of a stock and the purchase price of the stock plus dividends. According to Hendra (2018) in his Hardiningsih, returns are the result of investments in the form of realized gains and investment returns. On the other hand, Irham Fahmi (2016:358) The definition of shareholder interest is the profit that companies, individuals, and institutions make as a result of the investment activities they carry out. In addition to the same goal, investors also have different investment goals of achieving short-term and long-term gains.

Yield is the expected return an investor expects to receive a profit yield, i.e. the expected return earned from an individual security (Ratih, 2015).

Hypothetical study

1. Effect of liquidity ratio on volume activity

H1: The current ratio has a significant impact on trading volume activity.

2. Effect of debt-to-equity ratio on trading volume activity

H2: DER does not affect volume activity

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3. Impact of return on equity on trading volume activity

H3: Return on equity has no significant impact on volume activity

Four. Impact of CR, DER, and return on equity on trading volume activity

H4: Volume activity is simultaneously heavily influenced by CR, DER, and return on equity.

5. Effect of Liquidity Ratio on Stock Returns

H5: Liquidity ratios have a large impact on stock returns.

6. Impact of capital adequacy ratio on shareholder returns

H6: Debt-to-equity ratio has a big impact on stock returns

7. Impact of Return on Equity on Return on Equity

H7: Equity returns are heavily influenced by equity returns

8. Impact of Volume Activity on Equity Returns

H8: Trading volume activity has a significant impact on stock returns.

9. Simultaneous impact of current ratio, debt-to-equity ratio, return on equity, and trading volume activity on return on equity H9: Current ratios, debt-to-equity ratios, return on equity, and trading volume

activity all have a significant impact on stock returns.

Research method

Population and study sample

The study used retail companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2017 to 2021. 85) is a survey sampling technique with specific considerations aimed at making the data subsequently obtained more representative of the sample of 21 trading firms. According to (Cooper and Schindler, 2014) there are two criteria.

First, the retail company is listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange and will operate from 2017 to 2021. Second, the retail business has financial statements that include: Completion of information from 2017 to 2021 on variables used in the study

Operational definitions and research variables

The study uses dependent variables in the form of trading volume activity, and retail firm stock returns, and independent variables in the form of he the DER, CR, and financial performance bounded by return on equity. The operational definitions and reporting variables used in this study are summarized in Table 1.

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From the table above, we can see that the mean (mean) of the current proportions of the independent variable (x1) has a mean of 2.201876 with a standard deviation of 2.418549. A standard deviation above the mean indicates large data variable variability or the presence of a relatively small liquidity gap (x1) between lows and highs. Independent variable DER

(x2) has a mean of 2.378366 and a standard deviation of 3.806713. A standard deviation above the mean indicates a relatively small (x2) difference between the variance of the large data variable or the lowest and highest DER.

The independent variable ROA (x3) has a mean of -0.014703 and a standard deviation of 0.489120. A larger standard deviation than the mean indicates a large data variable variance or a relatively small gap between the lowest and highest returns (x3) on an asset. The dependent variable TVA(y) has a mean of 0.019575 and a

standard deviation of 0.045588. A standard deviation greater than the mean indicates a large data variable variance or a relatively small gap between the lowest and highest TVA values (y). The intermediate inventory return variable (z) has a value of 0.251495 with a standard deviation of 1.127475. A larger standard deviation than the mean indicates that there is a large data variable variance or a relatively small gap between the stock's lowest and highest returns (z).

Results of regression analysis

Based on the above tests, a random effects model was chosen twice: the Hausmann test and the Lagrangian multiplier (LM) test. Fixed-effects models were chosen four times with Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests.

Meanwhile, the test common-effects model was selected once for the Lagrangian multiplier (LM) test.

Therefore, from the three models

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Hasil Analisis Deskriptif

X1_CURRENT_

RATIO X2_DER X3_ROE Y_TVA Z_CAPITAL_GAIN

Mean 2.201876 2.378366 -0.014703 0.019575 0.251495 Median 1.285592 1.379605 0.050374 0.002758 0.000000 Maximum 13.84073 23.41625 0.907435 0.290372 8.833333 Minimum 0.021326 -2.796868 -1.608946 0.000000 -0.880769 Std. Dev. 2.418549 3.806713 0.489120 0.045588 1.127475 Skewness 2.507442 3.320210 -1.742496 4.458549 4.958910 Kurtosis 10.20842 17.16437 6.940356 25.36297 35.55608

Jarque-Bera 321.2932 1019.686 115.2982 2415.071 4826.090 Probability 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000

Sum 220.1876 237.8366 -1.470285 1.957535 25.14951 Sum Sq. Dev. 579.0887 1434.616 23.68460 0.205749 125.8487

Observations 100 100 100 100 100

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(common-effects, fixed-effects, and random-effects models), we can conclude that the fixed-effects model better interprets regressions in panel data to

answer this survey. . Here are the results of panel data regression tests using the fixed- effects model in this study:

Yit = β0 + β1X1it + β2X2it + β3X3it + Uit ER = 0.024316 - 0.001628X1 - 0.000721X2 - 0.038012X3 + 0

1) The constant 0.024316 means that the liquidity ratio (X1), leverage (X2), return on equity (X3) and TVA amount (Y) is 0.024316.

2) Regression coefficient of - 0.001628 for variable liquidity ratio (X1) means that TVA (Y) decreases by -0.001628 for each unit increase in liquidity ratio (X1).

3) The regression coefficient of - 0.000721 for the variable Debt-to- Equity Ratio (X2) means that TVA (Y) decreases by 0.000721 for each unit increase in Debt-to-Equity Ratio (X2).

4) A regression coefficient of 0.038012 for the variable Return on Equity (X3) means that TVA (Y) increases by 0.038012 for each unit increase in Return on Equity (X3).

Uji Regresi TVA (Y) Tabel 4.2

Uji Regresi Data Panel Dengan Model Random Effect

Dependent Variable: Y_TVA Method: Least Squares Date: 11/09/22 Time: 15:44 Sample: 1 100

Included observations: 100

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

X1_CURRENT_RATIO -0.001628 0.001841 -0.884041 0.3789

X2_DER -0.000721 0.001440 -0.501043 0.6175

X3_ROE -0.038012 0.011117 -3.419343 0.0009

C 0.024316 0.007230 3.363273 0.0011

R-squared 0.141574 Mean dependent var 0.019575

Adjusted R-squared 0.114748 S.D. dependent var 0.045588 S.E. of regression 0.042893 Akaike info criterion -3.421048 Sum squared resid 0.176620 Schwarz criterion -3.316841 Log-likelihood 175.0524 Hannan-Quinn criteria. -3.378873

F-statistic 5.277532 Durbin-Watson stat 1.325073

Prob(F-statistic) 0.002063

The regression equation is as follows: Source: Eviews 9.0 . Data Panel Regression Output

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Yit = β0 + β1X1it + β2X2it + β3X3it + Uit ER = 0.024316 - 0.001628X1 - 0.000721X2 - 0.038012X3 + 0

1) A constant of 0.024316 means that for the current ratio (X1) the regression equation for debt is

Yit = β0 + β1X1it + β2X2it + β3X3it - β1Yit + Uit

ER = 0.223317 - 0.025465X1 + 0.004544X2 + 0.232879X3 + 3.926672Y + 0

1) The constant 0.223317 means that the liquidity ratio (X1), DER (X2), ROE (X3), and TVA (Y) have a stock return (Z) amount of 0.223317.

2) The regression coefficient of 0.02546 for the variable liquidity ratio (X1) means that the enterprise value (Z) increases by 0.02546 for

each unit increase in the liquidity ratio (X1).

3) A regression coefficient of 0.0045544 for the DER variable (X2) means that for each unit increase in DER (X2), enterprise value (Z) decreases by 0.0045544.

4) A variable return on equity (X3) regression coefficient of 0.232879 means that for each unit increase in return on equity (X3), return on equity (Z) decreases by 0.232879.

5) The regression coefficient of 3.926672 for the variable TVA (Y) means that for each unit increase in TVA (Y), the stock return (Z) increases by 3.926672.

Uji Regresi Return Saham (Z) Table 4.3

Panel Data Regression Test With Random Effect Model Dependent Variable: Z_CAPITAL_GAIN

Method: Least Squares Date: 11/09/22 Time: 15:54 Sample: 1 100

Included observations: 100

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

X1_CURRENT_RATIO -0.025465 0.048911 -0.520645 0.6038

X2_DER 0.004544 0.038139 0.119137 0.9054

X3_ROE 0.232879 0.311502 0.747601 0.4565

Y_TVA 3.926672 2.700192 1.454220 0.1492

C 0.223317 0.202233 1.104259 0.2723

R-squared 0.027916 Mean dependent var 0.251495 Adjusted R-squared -0.013014 S.D. dependent var 1.127475 S.E. of regression 1.134788 Akaike info criterion 3.139475 Sum squared resid 122.3356 Schwarz criterion 3.269733 Log likelihood -151.9737 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.192193 F-statistic 0.682042 Durbin-Watson stat 1.924735 Prob(F-statistic) 0.606099

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1. HYPOTHESIS TEST RESULT t-test

This test is performed by considering the probability of the p-value if the probability of the p-value is less than 1. If α(0.05) h0 is discarded. This means that variables have a large impact. On the other hand, h0 is accepted if the p-value probability > α (0.05). This means that the variable has no significant effect. The t- test results for this study are:

t-test for the dependent variable 1) Effect of current ratio on TVA

A regression test of the above panel data shows that the calculated variable Current Ratio (X1) is - 0.884041, while the t table is The value for N=100 is 1.98. So if -0.884041<1>0.05, H0 is accepted and H1 is rejected. We can say that the current ratio (X1) has no effect and is not important for TVA (Y).

2) Debt impact on capital adequacy ratio for TVA

Test results using regression analysis of the panel data above showed that the calculated result for the variable Debt to Equity Ratio (X2) is -0.501043, whereas the table value N = 100 is 1.98. So if -0.501043 < 1> 0.05 then H0 is accepted and Ha is rejected. We can see that the debt-to-equity ratio

(X2) has a small negative impact on TVA (Y).

3) Effect of return on equity on TVA k

Test results using regression analysis of the panel data above showed that the calculated t-value for table N=100 is 1.98, while the variable Return on Equity (X3) is calculated to be -3.419343. If H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted, ROA is -3.419343 1.98 and probability value 0.00 0.05 he has a significant negative impact on TVA.

t-test for intervening variables

a) How current ratios affect stock returns

Test results from regression analysis of the above panel data showed that the calculated t table value for N=100 is 1.98, while the variable Current Ratio (X1) is calculated to be -0.520645. So if - 0.520645 < 1> 0.05 then H0 is accepted and H1 is rejected. We can see that the liquidity ratio (X1) has no effect and is not related to the stock return (Z).

b) Impact of Debt/Equity Ratio on Equity Returns

In a test result of regression analysis on the panel data above, the calculated result for the

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variable Debt-to-Equity Ratio (X2) was 0.119137. In contrast, the t- score N=100 in the table is 1.98. In other words, if 0.119137<1>0.05 H0 is accepted and H1 is rejected, we can conclude that we are responsible. Capital adequacy ratio (X2) has no impact on equity return (Z)

c) Impact of Return on Equity on Return on Equity

Using a regression analysis of the panel data above, test results showed that the t table value for N=100 is 0.747601.1.98, while the calculated return on equity is (X3).

So if 0.74761<1>0.05 then H0 is accepted and H1 is rejected. Return on equity (X3) is ineffective and irrelevant to return on equity (Z).

d) Effect of TVA on equity returns In a test result of regression analysis on the above panel data, the calculated result for the TVA variable (Y) was 1.454220 and the N=100 t table value was 1.98. So if 1.454220<1>0.05 then H0 is accepted and H1 is rejected. TVA (Y) has no impact on stock returns (Z), nor is it likely to have a significant impact.

Test F.

This test can be performed by looking at the probabilities of the p-values.

H0 is rejected if the probability of the p- value is < α (0.05). This means that the independent variable influences the dependent variable simultaneously.

Conversely, h0 is accepted if the p-value probability > α(0.05). This means that the independent variable does not affect the dependent variable at the same time. The f- test results in this study showed a probabilistic f-test value of 0.00. Current Ratio (x1), DER (x2), and Return on Equity (x3), together or simultaneously, have a positive and insignificant impact on Return on Shares (z), since the values are 0.00 < 0> 0.05. I would say not given.

Coefficient of determination

The percentage influence of some independent variable on the dependent variable is calculated using the correlation coefficients of the corresponding goodness of fit of multiple linear lines to the goodness of fit asset using multiple free variables. in use. The results of the coefficient of determination check are:

1. Coefficient of determination test for TVA variables

You may know that the fitted value for r-squared is 0.279. This indicates that 27.9% of the current ratio (x1), DER (x2), and return on equity (x3) together or simultaneously have no positive and insignificant impact on TVA

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(y). The remaining 72.1% were affected by other factors not considered in the survey.

2. Coefficient of determination test for stock return variables

Based on the test results above, we find that the fitted value for r- squared is 0.141. This means that the 14.1% liquidity ratio (x1), DER (x2) and return on equity (x3) together or simultaneously have a significant positive impact on the return on equity (y), while the remaining 85.9% indicate that they are not affected by other factors that are affected. studied in this study.

3. CONCLUSION AND

SUGGESTIONS

The study analyzes the impact of financial performance on retailers' trading volume activity. The study uses dependent variables in the form of trading volume activity, and retail firm stock returns, and independent variables in the form of financial performance limited by CR, DER, and return on equity. This study used panel data regression using Evaluations9 software. Covered 21 retail companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2017 to 2020. Based on the coefficient of determination test of the TVA variables together or simultaneously,

there is no positive effect on TVA(y) and it is insignificant. The remaining 72.1% were affected by other factors not considered in this study. To determine the tested coefficient for the stock return variable, this was the joint or simultaneous positive significant effect on stock return (y), with the remaining 85.9% being the effects of other factors not examined in this study.

receive. For the dependent variables, liquidity ratio had no significant effect on his TVA, DER had a negative and insignificant effect on TVA, ROA had a large negative effect on TVA, and DER also had no effect on stock returns. I would say no. The intervening factor CR has a negligible impact on stock returns. The debt-to-equity ratio (X2) has no effect on stock returns.

Return on Equity has no impact on Return on Equity and is immaterial, while Return on Assets has a significant negative impact on his TVA. A limitation of this study is that the moderation used with respect to stock return member characteristics shares only the capital gains at the time of sale and thus could be developed more broadly for future research.

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