Semarang, Januari 2020 - Universitas Diponegoro

(1)

Judul Jumal Ilmiah (Artikel) Perulis Jumal Ilmiah/ Jumlah penulis

Stams Pengusul Idenfitas Jurnal Ilmiah

Kategori Publikasi Karya Ilmiah/buku

(beri v pada kategori yang tepat) Ha*sil Penilaian Peer Review ^'.

HASIL

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^SEJAWATSEBIDANG ATAU PEER REWEW

a.

^Nama^Jurnal

b.

Nomor ISSN

c.

^Volume,^no,

bulan, tahun

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e.

DOI artikel

0ika ^ada)

f.

Alamat web

KARYA

ILMIAH

: JURNAL

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Analysis of Company Characteristics of Firm Values: Profitability as Intervening Variables M. Chabachib, Hersugondo. Erna Ardiana" Imang Dapit Pamungkas/ 4 orang

Penulis Anggota

Int€xrational Journal of Financial Research 1v234ff23

Vol

ll,

^NoI (2020), hal6&'70 Sciedu Press

http ://www. sci edupress. com/ioumaVindex.pho/ij fr /article/v iew-

.fZ-l

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jurnal /16477/10237

Terindeks di Scopus (Q3), SJR 2018 0,92, H lndeks 17

Jumal ilmiah in+emasienal/lntemasional bereputasi**

Jurnal ilmiah nasional Terakreditasi

Jurnal ilmiah nasional/nas. terindeks di DOAJ,CABI. Copemicus**

Komponen Yang Dinilai

Nilai Maksimal Jurnal Ilmiah

Nilai Yang Diperoleh Infurna*ieu*U

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p1

Nasional Terakreditasi

n

Nasional Tidak Terakreditasi

a. Kelengkapan unsur isi (10%) 4"00

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b. Ruang lingkup dan kedalaman pembahasan (30%) 12.00 10.00

c. Kecuk-upan dan kemutahiran data /informasi dan metodologi (30%\

12,00 11,00

d. Kelengkapan unsur dan kualitas terbitan/iurnal (30%) 12.00 11,00

Total =

^(100%) 40,00 36"00

Nilai pensusul =36,00x40%/3=4,80 4,80

Catatan Penilaian oleh Reviewer :

l.

Kesesuaian dan kelengkapan unsur isi jumal Penulisan sudah sesuai dengan "Guide for Authot'' (Title, Introduction, Literatur Review and Hypotheisi Development Methods, Results and Discussion, Conclusion, References) dengan sistem Author.

Substansi artikel sesuai dan terkait bidang ilmu pengusul (Ekonomi/Man{emen). Format lengkap, ada benang merah dalam struktur penulisannya antara judul dan isi jumal (skor=4,00)-

2.

Ruane lingkuo dan kedalaman o€mbahasan: Substami artikel sesuai dengan ruang lingkup jumal (International Journal

of

Financial Research). Kedalaman pembahasan cukup baik (7 dari 21 bh rujukannyadilibatkan dalam proses membahas hasit) (skorl0,00).

3.

Kecukupan dan kemutakhiran data/informasi dan metodolosi: Data-data hasil penelitian sudah menunjukkan ada kebaruan infomrasi. Dari 21 buah rujukanny4 terdapat 16 buahpustaka acuan yang mutakhir (kurang dari 10 th terakhir). Sebanyak 16 dari 21 pustaka berupa Jumal (menunjukkan proses review dan kecukupan pustaka sudah memenuhi) (skor:11,00).

4.

Kelenekaoan unsur dan kualitas terbitan: Jumal ini tergolong J.Intemasional Bereputasi @ditorial board lebih dari ⁵^negara, Jumal terbit secaxa teratur 4 kali (quarterly) dalam satu tahun. Kontibutor lebih dari 3 negar4 ISSN: 1923-4023; E-ISSN:

19234031, terindeks di Scopus, ^proseseditorial sudahbaik) (skor-l 1,00).

Semarang,

Januari 2020 Peer Review,

NIP. t95l 0902 198103 1002

Unit Kerja: Departemen Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis Universitas Diponegoro

(2)

Judul Jumal llmiah (Artikel) Penulis Jumal Ilmiah/ Jumiah penulis

Status Pengusul Identitas Jumal Ilmiah

Kategori Publikasi Karya llmiah,&uku

(beri v pada kategori yang tepat)

LEMBAR

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bulan, tahun

d. Penerbit

^:

e.

DOI

artikel

^:

(ika ada)

f.

Alamat

web

^:

.iurnal

Analysis of Company Characteristics of Firm Values: Prohtabilif as Intervening Variables M. Chabachib, Hersugondo, Erna Ardiana- lmang Dapit Pamungkas/ 4 orang

Interndional Journal of Financial Reserch 19234M3

Vol

ll,No

1(2020) Sciedu Press

http ://www. sciedupress. com/j oumal/index.php/ij fr/article/v iew- n6477110237

g.

Terindeks di Scopus (Q3), SJR 2018 0,92, H Indeks 17

lumal ilmiah i*te+r+as'ie+ralltntemasional bereputasi* * Jurnal ilmiah nasional Terakreditasi

Jurnal itmiah nasionaUnas. terindeks di DOAJ'CABI. Copernicus**

Komponen Yang Dinilai

Nilai Maksimal Jurnal [|miah

Nilai Yang Diperoleh I*ternasi,epeY

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Nasional Terakreditasi

Nasional Tidgk Terakreditasi

a. Kelengkapan unsur isi (10%) 4.00

n

^3,50

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12.00 11,50

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12,00 ¹1,50

d. Kelengkapan unsur dan kualitas terbitarliurnal (30%)

12.00 I 1.50

Total :

(f00%) 40,00 38.00

Nilai pengusul= @A% x 38,00/3 = ^5.,062 5.067

Catatan Peniiaian oleh Reviewer :

l.

Kesesuaian dan kelenskapan unsur isi jumal: Penulisan publikasi sudah sesuai dengan "Instruction lbr Authors" ^padajumal terkait. Substansi artikel sudah sesuai dengan bidang ilmu pengusul (Ekonomi Manajemen). Format jumal lengkap dan stmktur penulisan baik

(skor:

^3,50).

2.

Ruang linekup dan kedalaman pembahasan: Substansi artikel sesuai dengan ruang lingkup jumal (Business. l\'la:ragernent and Acccrunting: Business and Iniernational Man*gement). Pembahasan baik dnn mendalam (1 dari

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(skor:

^11,50).

4.

Kelenskapan unsur dan kualitas terbitan: Jumal ini tergolong J.lntemasional Bereputasi terindeks di Scopus. Proses editorial sudah baik dimana Editorial board lebih dari 5 negara, Jumal terbit secarateratur ⁴kali (quarterly) dalam satu tahun.

Kontributorlebihdari 3negara, ISSN: 1923-4023;E-ISSN:1923-4031

(skor:

^11,50).

Peer

Review. \

\

I} II

Prof.Drs.

t*urLGhoruli,

^M.Com..

Akt.,

Ph.D.

NtP.

19580816 198603

i

002

Unit Kerja: Jurusan Akutansi Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis Universitas Diponegoro

(3)

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International Journal of Financial Research

Scopus coverage years: from 2018 to 2019 Publisher: Sciedu Press

ISSN: 1923-4023 E-ISSN: 1923-4031

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Home > Vol 11, No 1 (2020)

International Journal of Financial Research

International Journal of

Financial Research (ISSN: 1923-4023;

E-ISSN: 1923-4031) is an open-access and peer-reviewed journal published by Sciedu Press in Canada. This journal is published

quarterly (January, April, July and October) in both print and online versions. All publications are open access in full text and free to download.

This journal publishes original and leading research across all the major fields of accounting,

finance and economics, ranging from institutional & corporate finance,

accounting, insurance & risk management, monetary banking, stock exchange, to business economics, development economics, capital markets and more.

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Vol 11, No 1 (2020)

Vol. 11, No. 1, January, 2020

Articles

Interactions of Financial Assistance and Financial Reporting Competency: Evidence From Local Government in Papua and West Papua Indonesia

Pilipus Ramandei, Abdul Rohman, Dwi Ratmono, Imam Ghozali

PDFp1

The Effect of Financial Leverage on The Islamic Banks’s Performance in The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries

Abdesslam Menacer, Abdulazeez Y. H. Saif-Alyousfi, Nor Hayati Ahmad

PDF p13

Mudharabah Deposits Among Conventional Bank Interest Rates, Profit-Sharing Rates, Liquidity and Inflation Rates

Caturida Meiwanto Doktoralina, Fikki Mutarotun Nisha

PDF p25

Influence of Rational and Emotional Appeals on Purchasing Through Online: The Case on Social Media

Mohamammad Toufiqur Rahman, Tanjina Pial

p34PDF

Antecedent Variables and Consequences of Religiosity on Fraud Muhamad Taqi, Sabaruddinsah ., Tubagus Ismail, Meutia .

p43PDF

(8)

Impact of Microfinance on Poverty: Qualitative Analysis for Grameen Bank Borrowers

Mohammad Aslam, Senthil Kumar, Shahryar Sorooshian

p49PDF

Analysis of Company Characteristics of Firm Values: Profitability as Intervening Variables

M. Chabachib, Hersugondo Hersugondo, Erna Ardiana, Imang Dapit Pamungkas

PDF p60

Institutional Ownership, Productivity Sustainable Investment Based on Financial Constrains and Firm Value: Implications of Agency Theory, Signaling Theory, and Asymmetry Information on Sharia Companies in Indonesia

Riskin Hidayat, Sugeng Wahyudi, Harjum Muharam, Fatlina Zainudin

PDF p71

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in the Nigerian Banking Industry

Oparah Felix Chukwudi, James Tumba Henry

p82PDF

Predicting Time-Lag Stock Return Using Tactical Asset Allocation Trading Strategies Across Global Stock Indices

Fahim Afzal, Pan Haiying, Farman Afzal, Faisal Ghafoor Bhatti

p115PDF

The Determinants of Financial Inclusion in Egypt Abeer Rashdan, Noura Eissa

PDF p123 Environmental Performance and Firm Value: Testing the Role of

Firm Reputation

Khanifah Khanifah, Jaka Isgiyarta, Fitri Alfiana, Udin Udin

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Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in Thailand: A Cross-Region Analysis

Phouthakannha Nantharath, Sirisak Laochankham, Peerasit Kamnuasilpa, Eungoo Kang

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The Relationship Between Human Capital and Financial Development: A Case Study of Turkey

Mehmet Nar

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A Descriptive Analysis of IPOs Post Listing Liquidity in Malaysia Amal Mohammed Al-Masawa, Rasidah Mohd-Rashid, Hamdan Amer Al-Jaifi

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The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on the Profitability of Islamic Banks in UAE

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Academic Cheating and Characteristics of Accounting Students

Nur Sayidah, Sulis Janu Hartati, Muhajir Muhajir p189^PDF Remittances and Economic Growth Tie in Selected South Asian

Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Md. Nezum Uddin, Mohammed Jashim Uddin, Md. Joynal Uddin, Monir Ahmmed

p197PDF

Female Directors, Family Ownership and Firm Performance in Jordan

Zaid Saidat, Claire Seaman, Mauricio Silva, Lara Al-Haddad, Zyad Marashdeh

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Investigating the Efficiency of GCC Banking Sector: An Empirical Comparison of Islamic and Conventional Banks

Imran Khokhar, Mehboob ul Hassan, Muhammad Nauman Khan, Md Fouad Bin Amin

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Construction of Competitive Advantage Instrument in Jordanian SME Context Using Structural Equation Modelling

Khaled Alzeaideen

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Comparative and Demonstrative Study Between the Liquidity of Islamic and Conventional Banks in a Financial Stability Period:

Which Type of Banks Is the Most Liquid?

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Strategic Costing Models as Strategic Management Accounting Techniques at Private Universities in Riau, Indonesia

Evi Marlina, Hendri Ali Ardi, Siti Samsiah, Kirmizi Ritonga, Amris Rusli Tanjung

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Environmental Management Accounting, Islamic Social Reporting, and Corporate Governance Mechanism on Sharia- Approved Companies in Indonesia

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Windu Mulyasari, Sekar Mayangsari

Implementation of Social Culture in Corporate Governance: A Literature Study

Mukhtaruddin Mukhtaruddin, M. Adam, Isnurhadi Isnurhadi, Luk Luk Fuadah

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Countertrade Mechanism of Global Arms Trade: Case Study of Indonesia

Zainal Arifin, Agus Suman, Moh. Khusaini

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Predicting Likelihood for Loan Default Among Bank Borrowers

Mohammad Aslam, Senthil Kumar, Shahryar Sorooshian p318^PDF Capital and Liquidity Risks and Financial Stability: Pre, During

and Post Financial Crisis Between Islamic and Conventional Banks in GCC Countries, in the Light of Oil Prices Decline

Hamid Abdulkhaleq Hasan Al-Wesabi, Rosylin Mohd. Yusof

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Capital Flight and Domestic Investment in Nigeria: Evidence From ARDL Methodology

Lionel Effiom, Alfa Charles Achu, Samuel Etim Edet

p348PDF

Does Financial Instability of Conventional Banks Affect Financial Stability of Islamic Banks in GCC Countries?

Hamid Abdulkhaleq Hasan Al-Wesabi, Rosylin Mohd. Yusof

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Management Compensation, Gender Diversification, and Executive Preferences on Tax Avoidance of IDX Manufacturing Companies

Frans Sudirjo

PDF p373

The Effects of Financial and Political Risks on Economic Risk in Southern European Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

Dervis Kirikkaleli, Kelvin Onyibor

PDF p381

The Effect of Financial Ratios Derived From Operating Cash Flows on Jordanian Commercial Banks Earnings per Share

Laith Abdel Rahman Abualrob, Sanaa N. Maswadeh

PDF p394

Internal Controls and Performance of Selected Tertiary Institutions in Ekiti State: A Committee of Sponsoring Organisations (COSO) Framework Approach

Gideon Tayo Akinleye, Adebola Daniel Kolawole

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Mobile Money, Financial Inclusion and Digital Payment: The Case of Vietnam

Tran Hung Son, Nguyen Thanh Liem, Nguyen Vinh Khuong

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Advocacy of Competition in the Mechanism of State Regulation of the Economy

Olga Bakalinska, Olena Belianevych, Olena Honcharenko

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International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) Adoption and Implementation in Nigerian Public Sector

Ademola Abimbola O., Ben-Caleb E., Madugba Joseph U., Adegboyegun Adekunle E., Eluyela Damilola F.

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Inflation Thresholds and Stock Market Development: Evidence of the Nonlinear Nexus From an Emerging Economy

Noura Abu Asab, Alaaeddin Al-Tarawneh

PDF p447

Capital Market Determinants and Market Capitalization in Nigeria

Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero

PDF p462

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Editorial Team

Editor-in-Chief

Thomas Liaw, St. John's University, United States

Associate Editors

Michael Yu, University of West Georgia, United States Willie Earl Gist, Ohio University, United States

Editorial Assistant

Gina Perry, Sciedu Press, Canada

Editorial Board Members

Prof. Alexandre F. Roch, Ecole des sciences de la gestion, Université du Québec à Montréal, Canada

Mr. Alexandru Constangioara, Oradea University, Romania buthiena kharabsheh, Yarmouk University, Jordan

Carlos Rodriguez, University of the Basque Country, Spain

Dr. Chien-Ping Chen, University of Houston-Victoria, United States

Christopher K Coombs, Louisiana State University and A&M College, United States

Di Wu, California State University-Bakersfield, United States Dimitris Hatzinikolaou, University of Ioannina, Greece Eugenio D'Angelo, Pegaso Telematic University, Italy Francesco Paolone, Parthenope University of Naples, Italy Professor Frank Li, Western University, Canada

Hamid Sakaki, Central Connecticut State University, United States Ifuero Osad Osamwonyi, University of Benin, Nigeria

Dr. Iordanis Petsas, University of Scranton, United States Irene Campos-García, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Spain Dr. Ishaq Hacini, University of Mascara, Algeria

Jihong Liu, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, China Dr. John Sherwood Clements, University of Alabama, United States Julien Chevallier, University Paris Dauphine, France

Kaveh Dalvand, University of Delaware, United States

Dr Kim Man Lui, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong Liang Guo, California State University, San Bernardino, United States Luca Vincenzo Ballestra, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Italy Marco Mele Mele, Unint University, Italy

Prof. Maria do Céu Gaspar Alves, University of Beira Interior, Portugal Dr. Mingsheng Li, Bowling Green State University, United States Mr Mohamed Mahjoub Elheddad, University of Hull, United Kingdom

Dr. mohd syakir bin mohd rosdi, Center for Islamic Development Management Studies (ISDEV), Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia, Malaysia Nikolaos Philippas, University of Pireaus, Greece

Nosirjon Juraev, Louisiana State University, United States Paolo Agnese, University “LUISS Guido Carli”, Italy Petr Teply, University of Economics, Czech Republic

Dr Qian Guo, Birkbeck College, University of London, United Kingdom

International Journal of

Financial Research

(11)

Roland Füss, EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht EBS Business School, Germany

Dr. Saidatunur Fauzi Saidin, Universiti Putra Malaysia Mr Sajid Mohy Ul Din, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia Sebastiano Mazzu', University of Catania, Italy

Dr Seungho Baek, Brooklyn College of the City University of New York, United States

Dr Stelios Markoulis, University of Cyprus, Cyprus Susan Ji, Governors State University, United States

Szabolcs Blazsek, Francisco Marroquin University, Guatemala Dr. Taoufik Bouraoui, ESC Rennes School of Business, France Dr Tarek Chebbi, University of Sousse, Tunisia

Tarek Ibrahim Eldomiaty, Misr International University, Egypt Teshome Abebe, Eastern Illinois University, United States Tianna Yang, Central University of Finance and Economics, China Vadhindran Rao, Metropolitan State University, United States Walid Elhaj Mabrouk, University of Technology Malaysia, Malaysia Xinle Liu, JP Morgan, United States

Yaqin Feng, Ohio University, United States

Ying Wang, Montana State University-Billings, United States Dr Zhengfeng Guo, Vanderbilt University, United States Dr. Zi-Yi Guo, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., United States

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http://ijfr.sciedupress.com International Journal of Financial Research Vol. 11, No. 1; 2020

Published by Sciedu Press 82 ISSN 1923-4023 E-ISSN 1923-4031

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in the Nigerian Banking Industry

Oparah Felix Chukwudi

¹

& James Tumba Henry

²

1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria

2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria Correspondence: James Tumba Henry, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria.

Received: September 3, 2019 Accepted: October 11, 2019 Online Published: October 21, 2019 doi:10.5430/ijfr.v11n1p82 URL: https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n1p82

Abstract

This study examined the impact of monetary policy on financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry for the period 2008Q1 to 2016Q2, using an error correction model. Banking industry financial stability index (BIFSI) was computed within the study and was used as a measure of financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry. The study discovered that the impact of monetary policy on financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry was weak. It also revealed a significant long run equilibrium relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in the Nigerian banking industry with a speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium of 66.54%. It was concluded that open market operation and exchange rate channels are more effective channels of transmitting monetary policy to financial stability in the banking industry, than interest rate channel.

Keywords: financial stability, monetary policy, Z-Score, financial soundness indicators, monetary policy rate, deposit money banks, global financial crisis

1. Introduction

Regular financial stability assessment and the detection of early warning signals to impending risks to the banking industry are major tasks of central banks and other supervisory authorities. Therefore using monetary policy, the central bank aims at preventing costly banking industry crises and financial instability. Financial stability is generally defined as the ability of the financial system to withstand shocks, as well as imbalances, and still continue to adequately provide financial intermediation. The banking industry is a subset of the financial system hence, its ability to withstand both internal and external shocks has been a major concern to economists and regulators. The global experience however, shows that sometimes the banking industry was not able withstand shocks and financial imbalances. Such situations are referred to as financial instability.

Financial instability in the banking industry was manifest during the Great Depression of 1929 to 1933. Similarly, the recent global financial crisis which began in 2007 and became exacerbated in 2008 with the collapse of a US investment bank (Lehman Brothers) paralyzed the global financial system. Several bail-out packages by the government of some countries were needed to resuscitate the global economy. For instance, in the United States of America, $115 billion dollars was disbursed to eight banks as bailout funds in 2008 (Congressional Budget Office, 2009). France and United Kingdom also announced bailout plans of $500 billion and $850 billion respectively in 2008 (Congressional Research Service, 2010), and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bailed out eight distressed banks in the country to the tune of N620 billion in 2009 (CBN, 2009; Sanusi, 2010). Many economists however, believe that banking industry instability is part and parcel of business cycle which occurs due to unrealistic responses and biased expectations by market participants (Allen, Babus, & Carletti, 2009).

In Nigeria, different monetary policy approaches have been adopted during the various financial development eras of the banking industry in a bid to ensure financial stability. However, various cases of financial instability were witnessed in the industry within the different eras classified as the pre Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP)-1970 to 1985, the SAP (1986 to 1999) and the Millennium (2000 to 2016) eras.

The pre-SAP era (1970 to 1985) marked the period before the introduction of SAP in 1986. During this period, the

direct monetary policy approach was in use. This approach made use of sectoral allocation and credit ceiling tools in

(13)

The Determinants of Financial Inclusion in Egypt

Abeer Rashdan

¹

& Noura Eissa

¹

1

Faculty of Economics and Political Science FEPS, Future University in Egypt FUE, New Cairo, Egypt

Correspondence: Noura Eissa, Future University in Egypt FUE, Faculty of Economics and Political Science FEPS, 90th St, First New Cairo, Cairo Governorate 11835. E-mail: noura.eissa@fue.edu.eg

Received: August 27, 2019 Accepted: October 3, 2019 Online Published: October 21, 2019 doi:10.5430/ijfr.v11n1p123 URL: https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n1p123

Abstract

Recently, Egypt has prioritized financial inclusion in its monetary reform agenda. The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of financial inclusion in Egypt using the World Bank‟s Global Findex 2017 database to conduct a logistic regression. Empirical results prove that there is no significant relationship between gender and the level of financial inclusion in Egypt, whereas, richer, more educated and older individuals are more strongly included in the financial system. The results reveal that the main barrier to financial inclusion is actually a lack of money;

which hinders opening a formal account, savings account or credit account. Through possible policy measures, the paper recommends the need for a progressive approach to robust financial literacy and awareness in order for a positive economic growth role of financial inclusion to emerge in the Egyptian economy.

Keywords: financial inclusion, financial literacy, economic development, financial determinants JEL Classification: G1, G21, G28, J16

1. Introduction

Financial inclusion, an enabler of economic growth, is a policy priority for most governments with emerging economies. Financial systems are the basic building blocks that facilitate and maintain economic growth in any economy. Within a theoretical framework, financial inclusion targets the efficient allocation of capital funds by mobilizing savings and managing risks, thus decreasing the level of inequality and reducing poverty levels. Financial inclusion is recognized as one of the main pillars of the global millennium development goals, specifically in heavily cash dependent societies (Kapoor, 2013). The definition of financial inclusion can be extracted from the term itself, with “inclusion” meaning that an individual is included in the system; that the individual has an account at a formal financial institution, the opportunity to save and borrow money formally, contract insurance and use payment services. Financial inclusion can favour disadvantaged people, allowing them to increase their income (Bruhn and Love, 2014). For instance, access to financial tools empowers women, entrepreneurs involved in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), and individuals involved in the informal sector, allowing them to invest in their education or financial projects and fully utilize their resources (Demirguc-Kunt and Klapper, 2015). Financial inclusion gives people access to the financial tools that allow them to invest in their education or become entrepreneurs. Zins and Weill confirm that “in the absence of inclusive financial systems, poverty traps can emerge and hamper economic development” (2016, p.46).

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has played role in promoting and coordinating financial inclusion and considers it a strategic objective. In fact, financial inclusion is considered a “national priority”, as dictated by one of the agendas of Egypt‟s Sustainable Development Strategy (SDS): Egypt‟s Vision 2030 (Financial Inclusion in Egypt, 2017). The move towards financial inclusion is important since strong financial penetration is directly linked to lower rates of poverty, unemployment, tax evasion, and financial crime such as money laundering. The real productive capacity coming from neglected groups such as the informal sector, micro-businesses, the women‟s sector, and the uneducated sector, becomes visible in the financial system via financial inclusion. The Egyptian government‟s budget is, in return, not deprived of tax revenues coming from these businesses, which increases the number of banks‟

clients, whether individuals, families or businesses, strengthening the control of policymakers over their policies and

instruments such as interest rates. Financial inclusion could attract remittances, as it eases the transfer of funds from

abroad. The banks depend on financial inclusion, since banks require customers‟ funds for re-investment and bank

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http://ijfr.sciedupress.com International Journal of Financial Research Vol. 11, No. 1; 2020

The Effects of Financial and Political Risks on Economic Risk in Southern European Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

Dervis Kirikkaleli

¹

& Kelvin Onyibor

²

1

Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, European University of Lefke, Northern Cyprus, Turkey

2

Department of Economics, University of Manitoba, Canada

Correspondence: Dervis Kirikkaleli, Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science, European University of Lefke, Northern Cyprus, TR-10 Mersin, Turkey. Tel: 90-5488-637-770.

Received: October 27, 2019 Accepted: November 26, 2019 Online Published: November 29, 2019 doi:10.5430/ijfr.v11n1p381 URL: https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n1p381

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the effects of financial and political risks on the economic risk in Southern European countries. Quarterly data were employed, covering the period from 2000/Q1 to 2015/Q4. We performed the Pedroni Cointegration, Westerlund Cointegration, Common Correlated Estimated Mean Group (CCEMG), and Dynamic Common Correlated Estimated Mean Group technique (dynamic CCEMG). Our empirical findings suggest that (i) an improved financial environment is associated with less economic risk in the Southern European countries; (ii) political risk is harmful to economic stability.

Keywords: Southern European countries, economic risk, financial risk, political risk, dynamic CCEMG JEL Classifications: R11, C33, C58, P16

1. Introduction

Europe in general has been drastically transformed as a result of the financial crisis experienced during the early 2000s.

Among the affected areas of the world, Southern Europe is a region that has experienced negative effects following this crisis. It is undeniable that southern Europe has subsequently exhibited poor economic performance. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Malta have an estimated total population of over 140 million people, with an estimated combined GDP of $4.2 trillion. Pooled together, these countries would be considered as the world’s 10

^th

most populated country as well as the 4

^th

largest world economy after the US, China, and Japan.

However, the overall pooled value of these economies is still less compared to its value at the end of 2006 after inflationary adjustments, while a 70% increase in their combined national debt has also been observed since that time After the impact of the financial crisis, Southern Europe stands as the only world region not to have recorded any economic growth. This is in comparison to its neighbouring countries, which have grown significantly such as; UK (16%), Germany (16%), US (21%), Japan (6%), and China (153%). Southern Europe’s major problem is that it is lagging behind the world economies in terms of monetary policy and economic growth. The high level of synchronization in regard to the Central Banks’ policies was the primary factor that subdued the negative monetary policy extreme effect after the 2008-2009 global financial and economic crises.

The negative long-term over-spilling effect of this crisis on both economic and social environments has received increased attention among scholars and politicians. However, the effects of political and financial risks on economic risk in Southern European countries have not previously been the subject of in-depth investigation. This study aims to apply newly-developed panel-based econometric techniques to investigate the effects of financial and political risks on economic risk for Southern European countries while controlling for global economic uncertainty, which can also be regarded as global uncertainty, as well as the 2008-2009 global financial and economic crisis. Therefore, the primary goal of this study is to fill this gap in the economic and finance literature by establishing panel-based models. The study will likely open a new debate in the literature, and the findings of this study generate noteworthy implications for policy-makers in the region. In this study, Pedroni Cointegration, Westerlund Cointegration, and dynamic CCEMG techniques are all employed.

From the post-World War II period until the present time, the greatest challenge faced by the global economy and

particularly Europe has been the global financial crisis (Cassette and Farvaque, 2014). Furceri and Mourougane (2012)

(15)

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International Journal of Financial Research

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