IEGS
State of The Indian
Economy
Current state (2023- May)
measurement of the total amount of demand for all finished goods and services
produced in an economy;
expressed as total amount of money exchanged for those goods & services
Aggregate Demand
barometer that
incorporates metrics throughout the supply chain to give an
overview of the condition of the industry
indicators include cross-border
transportation costs, changes in shipping rates, airfreight costs, manufacturing data, and more
remained below avg.
since July ‘22
DOMESTIC ECONOMY ACTIVITY INDICATORS
twenty-seven monthly indicators representing industry, services,
global and
miscellaneous activities eco. activity resilient as per EAI
Assuming an implied GDP growth of 5.1% for Q4:2022-23, the EAI nowcasts GDP growth for Q1:2023-24 at 7.6 %.
eWay bill
volumes at 84.4 million in April 2023 (2nd
highest level
after Mar. 2023) eWay bill
generated when there is
movement of goods in a vehicle/
conveyance of value more than Rs. 50,000
Toll collections reached a record of ₹52 billion in April 2023, aided by an expansion of toll plazas under the FASTag
programme
Electricity generation also accelerated in April due to rising temperatures.
Automobile sales recorded a robust
expansion of 16.1% y-o-y in Apr ‘23. Electric vehicles sales crossed
the 1 lakh mark for the seventh consecutive
month in Apr ‘23.
Vehicle registrations moderated in Apr ‘23 as the implementation of the 2nd phase of BS VI norms led to
higher prices.
Daily avg. consumption of petroleum products fell 7.2% m-o-m in April
‘23 due to adverse weather conditions.
AUTOMOBILE SECTOR INDICATORS
LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS
All-India unemployment rate was at 8.1 per cent in April 2023, with a higher rate of unemployment being observed in urban areas
There was also a 2.2% point sequential rise in the labour
force participation rate (LFPR) to 42% (highest since Feb 2020)
The demand for work under the (MGNREGS) increased sequentially & y-o-y due to lower demand for labour for sowing in summer & revised wage rates under the Scheme.
India’s merchandise exports declined by 12.7% y-o-y to a 6-month low of
US$ 34.7 Bn.
Among the 30 major commodities, 19 accounting for 73.7% in the export basket recorded a y-o-y contraction in April.
The drag on exports from petroleum products, jewellery, engineering
goods, chemicals & RMG of all
textiles, was partly offset by growth in electronic goods, pharmaceuticals, rice, and oil meals.
Non-oil exports contracted for the fifth consecutive month.
Merchandise imports fell to a 20-
month low of US$ 49.9 Bn because of easing commodity prices and fall in demand for discretionary items.
23 major items accounting for 82.1% of the import basket registered
contraction.
POL, coal and chemicals dragged down overall imports whereas
machinery, iron and steel and pulses contributed positively.
GST collections (Centre + States) in April 2023 stood at ₹1.87 lakh crore (highest monthly
collection since the launch of GST in July 2017) and recorded a growth rate of 11.6% y-o-y.
Aggregate supply indicates an economy's production potential and ability to meet
demand, offering insights into economic growth and stability.
Aggregate Supply
Agricultural Produce
As per IMD, the SWM rainfall (Jun-Sep), to be
normal at 96% of LPA.
Actual - 94%
SWM brings 70% of rain that India needs to water
crops and replenish the reservoirs.
Southern Oscillation Neutral Condition
El Nino Condition
Last 4 El Nino Years SWM Rainfall - Below Normal Impact on reservoir levels which are critical for irrigation of Rabi crops.
Public Procurement of Rice during KMS(2022- 23) was lower by 1.8%
Public Procurement of Wheat during RMS(2023- 24) has surpassed total procurement of last year by 38.4%
Summer Season Rainfall was higher than normal in 2023 - Good for Zaid Crops and Reservoir
Levels.
As on May 2023, All India Water Storage - 34%.
Marginally lower than last year but 22.5% higher than 10 year average.
Agricultural Produce...
Rice- 3.1 times Wheat- 3.9 times
Wheat Mandi Prices - Moderate
Rice Prices- High Due to higher rainfall and hailstorms last year, delay
in harvesting Rabi Crops,
Market arrival of Wheat was late.
Industrial Production
Two Types of Classifications - Broad Sectors and Use-Based.
IIP grew by 5.1% in 2022-23 - Robust expansion in production of Electricity, Mining and Manufacturing.
As per Use-based Classification - Capital Goods, Infrastructure Goods and Primary Goods.
Consumer Durables and Non-Durables increased just by 0.5%
each.
Index Value of all Use-based categories except Consumer Durables surpassed pre-pandemic levels.
Purchasing Managers’ Index
Headline PMI for Manufacturing reached 57.2 in April 2023, with broad based
expansion in all sub indices.
Output in the service sector expanded at the fastest rate in nearly 13 years at 62 led by new business growth and favorable
market conditions.
Growth in Cargo Traffic decelerated to 1.3% due to contraction in Iron Ore, POL Cargos.
Annual Growth in Railway Freight Earnings also decelerated driven by decline in Food Grain carriage.
Transport Indicators
Measured Unorganised Sector
Nearly half of the measured economic 1/2 activity in India takes place in Unorganised or Informal Sector.
Unorganised Composite Coincident Index which tracks economic activity in this sector, points towards an increase in Unorganised Non-Agricultural Activity in 4th Quarter of 2022-23
Inflation is the increase in the general price level of goods and
services in an economy over a period of time
Inflation
Supply-enhancing measures (steps to
increase the availability of goods and services).
A favorable base effect (comparison to a lower
inflation rate in the previous year).
In April, inflation in the fuel and light group declined to 5.5%
from 8.8% in March
Monetary policy tightening (actions taken by the central
bank to control inflation).
This decrease in inflation was observed across various categories, including food,
fuel, and core items (excluding food and fuel).
CPI Inflation
This decrease was mainly due to a favorable base effect
(comparison to a lower inflation rate in the previous year).
Regional Distribution:
In April 2023, rural inflation (4.68%) was slightly lower than urban
inflation (4.85%).
Most states had inflation rates between 4-6%, with Tripura being an exception
with inflation exceeding 8%.
Core inflation
decreased to 5.1% in April from 5.8% in
March.
This decrease was also due to a favorable base
effect
Food inflation in April 2023 dropped to 4.2% from 5.1% in
March.
Fuel and Light Group Inflation:
In April, inflation in the fuel and light group declined to
5.5% from 8.8% in March.
CPI Inflation
Fuel Prices in Major Metros (May):
Retail prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG remained
stable in the four major metros.
Kerosene prices continued to decline.
High-Frequency Food Price Data for May:
In the first 12 days of May (May 1-12), cereal prices, particularly
rice, increased.
Pulses, especially tur dal, saw higher prices, while edible oil
prices decreased.
Among key vegetables, onion and tomato prices decreased,
but potato prices increased.
Annual Inflation
and momentum
Annual Inflation
and momentum
Among key vegetables, prices of onions and tomatoes registered softening while potato
prices increased
High frequency food price data for May (May 1-12) point to an
increase in cereal prices, mainly due to rice (chart 36a).
While pulses prices, especially tur dal, registered an uptick,
edible oil prices declined
Annual Inflation
and momentum
Input costs inflation measured by wholesale
price index (WPI) for industrial inputs and farm
inputs moderated further in April 2023 (Chart 37).
The decline in industrial inputs costs primarily reflected moderation in prices of non-
food articles, high speed diesel (HSD) and electricity while farm inputs cost largely moderated on the back of fall in prices of fertilisers, HSD and
electricity.
