Supplemental Digital Content for “Mortality, Disenrollment, and Spending Persistence in Medicaid and CHIP”
TABLE 1. Fit Statistics for Multinomial Probit Model
Statistic Value
Number of observations 141,851
Wald Chi-square (p-value) 55471.43 (p<0.001)
Log likelihood -80811.394
Akaike's information criterion (AIC) 161,796.8
Bayesian information criterion (BIC) 162,654.8
Source: NJ Medicaid Management Information System.
TABLE 2. Multinomial Probit Model Estimates Predicting Membership in the Persistently Extreme Spending Group*
Variable Coefficient Standard Error Z Statistic P-Value
Female -0.16 0.03 -6.06 0.00
Age (Reference: 19-39)
0-18 -0.34 0.04 -8.66 0.00
40-54 0.31 0.04 8.37 0.00
55-64 0.09 0.04 2.00 0.05
65-79 -0.53 0.08 -6.86 0.00
80+ -0.71 0.12 -6.10 0.00
Live in nursing facility 2.67 0.04 59.94 0.00
New enrollee -0.46 0.08 -5.91 0.00
CDPS diagnostic categories†
Developmental disability 2.74 0.03 85.54 0.00
HIV/AIDS 1.07 0.06 17.42 0.00
Cancer 0.19 0.06 3.35 0.00
Cardiovascular 0.02 0.03 0.70 0.48
Cerebrovascular 0.12 0.05 2.34 0.02
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Central nervous system 0.78 0.03 27.93 0.00
Type 1 diabetes 0.45 0.05 8.67 0.00
Type 2 diabetes 0.04 0.04 1.10 0.27
Eye disorders 0.26 0.05 5.38 0.00
Genital disorders -0.08 0.05 -1.56 0.12
Gastrointestinal 0.47 0.03 15.27 0.00
Hematological 0.61 0.05 13.24 0.00
Infectious diseases 0.22 0.05 4.59 0.00
Pregnancy -0.15 0.12 -1.19 0.23
Psychiatric 0.57 0.03 21.57 0.00
Pulmonary 0.24 0.03 7.80 0.00
Renal 0.58 0.03 17.73 0.00
Skeletal 0.35 0.03 12.29 0.00
Skin 0.24 0.04 6.81 0.00
Substance abuse -0.20 0.05 -4.33 0.00
Intercept -4.00 0.04 -105.67 0.00
Source: NJ Medicaid Management Information System.
*Reference group is the combined Some Moderate Spending/Disenrolled Group.
†CDPS: Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System.
TABLE 3. Multinomial Probit Model Estimates Predicting Membership in the Persistently High Spending Group*
Variable Coefficient Standard Error Z Statistic P-Value
Female 0.06 0.01 4.09 0.00
Age (Reference: 19-39)
0-18 -0.36 0.02 -16.18 0.00
40-54 0.22 0.02 11.01 0.00
55-64 0.14 0.02 6.36 0.00
65-79 -0.20 0.03 -6.53 0.00
80+ 0.62 0.03 18.99 0.00
0.06 0.01 4.09 0.00
Live in nursing facility 1.96 0.03 65.94 0.00
New enrollee -0.14 0.02 -5.62 0.00
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CDPS diagnostic categories†
Developmental disability 1.48 0.02 62.15 0.00
HIV/AIDS 1.50 0.03 47.28 0.00
Cancer 0.14 0.03 4.95 0.00
Cardiovascular 0.26 0.02 15.83 0.00
Cerebrovascular 0.20 0.03 6.30 0.00
Central nervous system 0.63 0.02 39.07 0.00
Type 1 diabetes 0.64 0.03 21.30 0.00
Type 2 diabetes 0.27 0.02 14.62 0.00
Eye disorders 0.07 0.03 2.37 0.02
Genital disorders -0.02 0.03 -0.76 0.45
Gastrointestinal 0.23 0.02 13.51 0.00
Hematological 0.21 0.03 6.95 0.00
Infectious diseases 0.09 0.03 3.13 0.00
Pregnancy -0.19 0.06 -3.43 0.00
Psychiatric 0.70 0.01 51.58 0.00
Pulmonary 0.27 0.02 17.53 0.00
Renal 0.56 0.02 28.16 0.00
Skeletal 0.28 0.02 18.36 0.00
Skin 0.14 0.02 6.50 0.00
Substance abuse 0.16 0.02 7.52 0.00
Intercept -2.52 0.02 -140.28 0.00
Source: NJ Medicaid Management Information System.
*Reference group is the combined Some Moderate Spending/Disenrolled Group.
†CDPS: Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System.
TABLE 4. Multinomial Probit Model Estimates Predicting Membership in the Decedent Group*
Variable Coefficient Standard Error Z Statistic P-Value
Female -0.25 0.02 -14.92 0.00
Age (Reference: 19-39)
0-18 -0.67 0.04 -15.60 0.00
40-54 0.60 0.03 20.60 0.00
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55-64 0.87 0.03 29.44 0.00
65-79 0.90 0.03 26.23 0.00
80+ 2.47 0.03 73.31 0.00
Live in nursing facility 2.19 0.03 76.79 0.00
New enrollee 1.27 0.02 62.75 0.00
CDPS diagnostic categories†
Developmental disability 1.03 0.04 25.68 0.00
HIV/AIDS 1.27 0.04 32.52 0.00
Cancer 0.90 0.03 31.34 0.00
Cardiovascular 0.02 0.02 0.79 0.43
Cerebrovascular 0.16 0.04 4.49 0.00
Central nervous system 0.54 0.02 25.62 0.00
Type 1 diabetes 0.45 0.04 12.33 0.00
Type 2 diabetes -0.03 0.02 -1.51 0.13
Eye disorders -0.30 0.04 -8.26 0.00
Genital disorders -0.35 0.04 -9.46 0.00
Gastrointestinal 0.27 0.02 12.86 0.00
Hematological 0.69 0.03 21.34 0.00
Infectious diseases 0.48 0.03 15.74 0.00
Pregnancy -0.14 0.09 -1.53 0.13
Psychiatric 0.31 0.02 16.88 0.00
Pulmonary 0.46 0.02 23.19 0.00
Renal 0.57 0.02 22.97 0.00
Skeletal -0.04 0.02 -2.20 0.03
Skin 0.29 0.03 11.00 0.00
Substance abuse 0.30 0.03 11.09 0.00
Intercept -3.34 0.03 -124.07 0.00
Source: NJ Medicaid Management Information System.
*Reference group is the combined Some Moderate Spending/Disenrolled Group.
†CDPS: Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System.
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