Uji Pemahaman Pekan 11 Kelompok 10

Use the seasonal dummy variable to make forecast for quarterly revenue in 2022.

Using the linear trend equation, what is the predicted yearly increase (decrease) of the revenue?

What is the revenue forecast for 2012 found by the linear trend equation? [t = 23]

What is an exponential trend equation?

I.

&, ^(d,=1 ,de⁼⁰ , da⁼0) ^: Ye ^: (bo ^+b,) but

02 ( di^{=0, dc:1} , d3^:0) ^: Yt ^{: (b0 +}bz) but Oz ^{(d,=0,de=0 , da= 1) :} Ye ^: (bo ⁺bs) but

Oy (di^{=0, dc=0 ,d3=D) : Yt : botbut}

b .

Yt

^{= bo + b..t}

y ^{: 642.792 + 60.496t}

: Setiap tahunaya ^{revenue akan} pertamban

Sebesar stopenya yaity ^{60.496 million} dollar

2 -

Yt

^{= bo + b..t}

-

y+ : 642^.792 + 60^.496(23)

-

y⁺⁼ 2034^.L

d^.

In _ye ⁼ Bo⁺ B^{,t + 3}

Forecast ^: It ^:

exp (both +

ji ^: exp6

⁽

^{.632 + 0.}0457 +

O

e) ^{I+ = exp(6,632 + 0,045(23) + 0,}

0692)

2

=2141, 754

I^{I CubicTrend,} Karena kita dupat ^melinat pada adjusted Ryang^{dimilipi pada setiap}trendy a^.

Adjusted R2 digunakan ^us membandingkan ^model forecasting polynomial ^mana _yy paling ^back like fungsi ^berbeda Orde (quadratic,cubic_.... ). Dimana Adjusted R2 cubic trend sebesar 92,03% ^lebihbesar daripada quadratic

trend yy ^{sebesar 91,22}%. Make persamaan yang paliny^{+It adalah cubic trend.}

9) Quadratic^trend

It ^{= b0 +bit +bet2}

- ⁼ 797,317⁺ 21,266(23) ⁺ 1,600(23)2 ⁼ 2188

Cubic trend

* ⁼ 640_,766 ⁺ 91_,726(23) ^-5_,748(23)2 ⁺ 0,215(23) ⁼ 2333, 677

h) Persamaan regress 49 paling It adalah cubic ^trend . Hal int dikarenatan cubic trend memiliki MAD dan MSE Paling ^kecil dibanding ^{an persamaan} regresilainnya^.

i) = ^{= 648,766 + 91,726(24) - 5,748(24)2 + 0,215(2413 = 2511},502