The export value of the agricultural sector from January to November 2021 accounts for 1.97% of Indonesia's total non-oil and gas exports. On the other hand, North Sumatra is one of the provinces that have people with income from farming products. If the farming community in North Sumatra can increase productivity for export, North Sumatra's gross domestic product income will increase.
Furthermore, agricultural exports in North Sumatra will have a direct impact on regional income and gross domestic product. The development of foreign trade in North Sumatra During 2010, North Sumatra's exports experienced an increase of 41.60 percent. North Sumatra's exports reached their highest value in 2011, which reached US$11.88 billion, an increase of 29.90 percent compared to 2010.
North Sumatra's increase in export performance is not unlike what has happened in several other Asian countries that are showing a slowdown due to the COVID-19 outbreak. 1473 From the description of the above table 3, it can be seen that the export of North Sumatra decreased from 2018 to 2020. Meanwhile, according to Ekananda, the exchange rate is a relative comparison of the price of a currency compared to other foreign currencies (Ekananda, 2014).
The amount of data used in this study consists of sample data from 33 regencies/cities in North Sumatra province, covering a period of 5 years from 2017 to 2021. 1481 rate (exchange rate) negatively affects export values in the province of North Sumatra. so that if the exchange rate (exchange rate) increases by 1 unit, the export value of North Sumatra province will decrease by -0.006464. These results indicate that if there are no independent variables consisting of gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rates and inflation, the value of North Sumatra province's exports as the dependent variable is 2.795550.
In the table of estimation results with the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) of the general effects model, the adjusted R S-squared coefficient of determination is 0.346795, which means that the variables gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate (exchange rate), inflation together they can explain the export value variable of North Sumatra province at 34.72%. These results indicate that if there are no independent variables consisting of gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rates, and inflation, the value of North Sumatra province's exports as the dependent variable is 2.649609. 1484 Province, so that if the gross domestic product increases by 1 unit, the export value of North Sumatra province will decrease by -0.007073.
In the estimation results table with the general effects model Random Effects Model (REM), the adjusted R S-squared coefficient of determination of 0.346795 means that the variables gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate (exchange rate), inflation together is able to explain the export value variable of North Sumatra province by 34.72%. Based on the results of the Chow Test analysis, the Joint Effect Model was selected, so the next step is to perform the Langrange Multipiler (LM) test. Based on the results of the Langrange Multiplicity Test analysis, the Random Effects Model was selected.
Hypothesis testing in this study using random effects model (REM) regression model estimation results.
1487 showed that the exchange rate variable (X2) has a positive regression coefficient with a value of b, which means that if the value of the exchange rate variable (X2) increases by 1 point, there will be an increase in the value of the export variable. (Y) of Based on the inflation variable (X3), the results of the regression test show that the inflation variable has a negative regression coefficient with a value of b, which means that if there is an increase in the value of the inflation variable (X3) by 1 point, the value of the export variable (Y) will decrease from 0.0080576. This shows that the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the exports of North Sumatra province. Thus, it can be concluded that the exchange rate variable has a negative effect on exports in North Sumatra province.
Based on the results of the simultaneous test, it can be seen that the regional gross domestic product (X1), exchange rate (X2) and inflation (X3) together have a positive and significant effect on the regional export of North Sumatra. From the results of the analysis, it can be seen that the significance value of the regional gross domestic product was 0.33645 > 0.05. So it can be seen that the exchange rate or the value of the currency affects North Sumatra's exports.
1492 Imports and inflation on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia, according to survey results. The exchange rate is one of the most important things in an open economy, as it has a very large impact on the current account balance and other macroeconomic variables. However, the research results are in line with the research conducted by Rebekah et al entitled The Effects of Exports, Imports and Inflation on the Exchange Rate of the Indonesian Rupiah as far as the research results are concerned.
From the analysis results, it is known that the probability (F-statistic) of the firm value variable is 0.002816 <0.05. Based on the results of the simultaneous test, it can be seen that Regional Gross Domestic Product (X1), exchange rate (X2) and inflation (X3) have a positive and significant effect together on Regional Exports of North Sumatra. The research that is consistent with this research is the research conducted by Rebekah, et al titled The Effects of Exports, Imports and Inflation on the Indonesian Rupiah Exchange Rate as per the research results.
Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on the factors that affect the growth of the agricultural sector in the province of North Sumatra. The results of the study show that labor force and agricultural imports have a positive and non-significant effect on the growth of the agricultural sector. Meanwhile, the area of agricultural land, agricultural exports, as well as agricultural investments have a positive and significant effect on the growth of the agricultural sector.
Increased area, exports and agricultural investment definitely have a good impact on the growth of the agricultural sector than farmers who have narrow land and low investment. Exports and agricultural investment definitely have a good impact on the growth of the agricultural sector than farmers who have narrow land and low investment.
