CRISIL Research ier report NRB Bearings Ltd 2015 Q3FY16

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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

NRB Bearings Ltd

Q3FY16 Results Update

Enhancing investment decisions

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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process – Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assi gned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five- point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL

Fundamental Grade Assessment

CRISIL

Valuation Grade Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

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Last updated: August, 2014

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NRB Bearings Ltd

Revenue declines owing to fall in exports

Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals) Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned) Industry Auto Components

April 07, 2016

Fair Value ₹135

CMP ₹130

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

NRB Bearings Ltd’s (NRB’s) Q3FY16 revenue and earnings were below CRISIL Research’s expectations. Standalone revenue fell 4.6% y-o-y to ₹1,588 mn mainly due to a decline in exports. EBITDA margin contracted by 552 bps y-o-y to 12.8% owing to a rise in employee cost as a percentage of sales. Subsequenlty, PAT declined 36.8% y-o-y to ₹78 mn. New initiatives, pick-up in rural economy and higher government spending on infrastructure are expected to drive the company’s growth. We maintain the fundamental grade of 4/5.

Revenue declined owing to fall in exports and slowdown in aftermarket segment Revenue growth was impacted by fall in exports revenue because of a) fall in rupee/euro currency exchange rate, and b) slowdown in geographies such as South America and Europe. Also, the company scaled down its expansion plans for the aftermarket segment amid intensifying competition. However, domestic OEM business (~65% of total revenue) posted healthy growth on the back of robust demand from the commercial vehicle segment.

New initiatives and expected pick-up in rural economy to drive growth

Uptick in the rural economy, on the back of a normal monsoon forecast and rural-focused schemes introduced by the government in the Union Budget, is likely to boost demand for two-wheelers, tractors and light commercial vehicles. Further, increase in allocation for infrastructure projects is likely to strengthen demand for heavy commercial and off-highway vehicles. These factors are expected to translate into a healthy order flow for NRB. Also, planned expansion of the aftermarket segment into new geographies and direct supply to defence and railway orders should support growth. We forecast revenue to grow at 15%

CAGR over FY16E-FY18P.

Steep rise in employee and raw material costs led to EBITDA margin contraction EBITDA margin contracted by 552 bps y-o-y owing to a steep rise in employee cost as a percentage of sales - up 327 bps y-o-y to 18.2%. This was due to the impact of higher provisioning on account of implementation of the revised Payment of Bonus Act. Also, raw material prices as a percentage of sales increased by 128 bps y-o-y owing to higher store and spares related expenses.

Fair value raised to ₹135 per share

We have rolled forward our estimates by one year to FY18. However, the effect of the same was partially offset by lower revenue and earnings estimates for FY16 and FY17. Resultantly, our DCF-based fair value has been raised to ₹135 per share. The fair value implies P/E multiples of 19.3x FY17E and 16.1x FY18E EPS. At the current market price of ₹130, our valuation grade is 3/5.

KEY FORECAST

(₹ mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Operating income 6,093 6,685 6,654 7,784 8,839

EBITDA 1,075 1,261 1,052 1,412 1,648

Adj net income 332 534 473 680 813

Adj EPS (₹) 3.4 5.5 4.9 7.0 8.4

EPS growth (%) (26.0) 60.8 (11.5) 43.7 19.6

Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.1

RoCE (%) 14.3 16.9 14.2 20.1 22.0

RoE (%) 15.8 22.3 17.4 22.2 23.1

PE (x) 37.8 23.5 26.6 18.5 15.4

P/BV (x) 5.7 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.6 12.4 14.2 10.6 9.2

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS

NIFTY/SENSEX 7546/24685

NSE/BSE ticker NRBBEARING

Face value (₹ per share) 2

Shares outstanding (mn) 96.9

Market cap (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 12,556/189 Enterprise value (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 15,311/230

52-week range (₹)/(H/L) 162/96

Beta 0.8

Free float (%) 44.7%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 59,222 Avg daily value (30-days) (₹ mn) 7.3 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

NRB 13% -8% 7% 0%

Nifty 500 1% -2% -7% -11%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT

Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected] Sayan Das Sharma [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

Valuation Grade

Fundamental Grade

Poor Fundamentals

Excellent Fundamentals

Strong Downside Strong Upside

58.2% 57.2% 57.2% 55.3%

41.8% 42.9% 42.9% 44.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15

Promoter Others

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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

Q3FY16 results summary (Standalone)

(₹ mn) Q3FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY15 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) 9MFY16 9MFY15 y-o-y (%)

Net sales 1,588 1,681 1,664 (5.5) (4.6) 4,868 4,994 (2.5)

Raw Material Cost 775 843 791 (8.1) (2.0) 2,431 2,358 3.1

Raw Material as % of sales 48.8% 50.1% 47.5% -136 bps 128 bps 49.9% 47.2% 272 bps

Other expenses 322 257 321 25.3 0.2 866 960 (9.8)

Employees Cost 289 273 248 5.9 16.3 829 744 11.4

EBITDA 203 308 304 (34.3) (33.4) 743 932 (20.3)

EBITDA margin 12.8% 18.3% 18.3% -558 bps -552 bps 15.3% 18.7% -342 bps

Depreciation 65 64 91 1.3 (29.0) 189 264 (28.5)

EBIT 138 245 213 (43.5) (35.3) 554 668 (17.1)

Interest and finance charges 33 34 40 (1.2) (16.3) 100 124 (18.8)

Operating PBT 105 211 174 (50.3) (39.6) 454 545 (16.7)

Other Income 4 26 2 (86.4) 59.1 41 28 45.5

Extraordinary Income/(expense) - (21) - NM NM (21) - NM

PBT 108 215 176 (49.7) (38.4) 473 573 (17.4)

Tax 30 59 52 (48.1) (42.0) 133 169 (21.1)

PAT 78 157 123 (50.3) (36.8) 340 404 (15.8)

Adj PAT 78 136 123 (56.2) (36.8) 361 404 (10.6)

PAT margin 4.9% 10.6% 7.4% -568 bps -250 bps 7.4% 8.1% -67 bps

No of equity shares (mn) 96.9 96.9 96.9 NM NM 96.9 96.9 NM

Adj EPS (₹) 0.8 1.8 1.3 (56.2) 3.7 3.7 4.2 (10.6)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Revenue decline and EBITA margin contraction… … led to fall in PAT

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

1,575 1,567 1,762 1,664 1,562 1,600 1,681 1,588

18.7%

19.1%

18.6%

18.3%

13.8%

14.5%

18.3%

12.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800

Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16

(₹ mn)

Revenue EBITDA Margin (RHS)

120 131 150 123 117 105 178 78

7.6% 8.4%

8.5%

7.4% 7.5%

6.6%

10.6%

4.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16

(₹ mn)

Adj. PAT Adj. PAT Margin (RHS)

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NRB Bearings Ltd

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Jan-14 Feb-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Mar-16

NRB Nifty 500

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Jan-14 Feb-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Mar-16

('000) (₹)

Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value NRB

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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards

Particulars Unit FY16E FY17E FY18E

Old New % change Old New % change Introduced

Revenues (₹ mn) 7,294 6,654 -8.8 8,278 7,784 -6.0 8,839

EBITDA (₹ mn) 1,321 1,052 -20.3 1,571 1,412 -10.1 1,648

EBITDA margin % 18.1 15.8 -229bps 19.0 18.1 -84bps 18.6

PAT (₹ mn) 572 473 -17.4 746 680 -8.9 813

PAT margin % 7.8 7.1 -74bps 9.0 8.7 -28bps 9.2

EPS ₹ 5.9 4.9 -17.4 7.7 7.0 -8.9 8.4

Source: CRISIL Research estimates

Reasons for changes in estimates

Line item FY16E FY17E

Revenues Lowered factoring in slower-than-expected growth in domestic OEM and export segments EBITDA margins Lowered factoring in impact of higher employee and raw material costs

PAT margins Lowered in line with EBITDA

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NRB Bearings Ltd

Valuation Grade: 3/5

We have rolled forward our estimates by one year to FY18. However, the impact of the same was partially offset by lower revenue and earnings estimates for FY16 and FY17, factoring in lower-than-expected growth. Resultantly, our DCF-based fair value has been raised to ₹135 per share. The fair value implies P/E multiples of 19.3x FY17E and 16.1x FY18E EPS. At the current market price of ₹130, our valuation grade is 3/5.

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

P/E – premium / discount to CNX 500 P/E movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0 50 100 150 200 250

Apr-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16

(₹)

NRB 6x 12x

18x 24x 30x

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

(₹ mn)

EV 4x 6x 8x 10x

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Premium/Discount to CNX 500 Median premium/discount to CNX 500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

(Times)

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev

Fair value raised to ₹135 per share

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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

CRISIL IER reports released on NRB Bearings Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation grade

CMP (on the date of report)

02-Jan-2014 Detailed report 4/5 ₹46 5/5 ₹36

07-Feb-2014 Q3FY14 result update 4/5 ₹46 4/5 ₹38

02-Jun-2014 Q4FY14 result update 4/5 ₹65 2/5 ₹85

01-Sep-2014 Q1FY15 result update 4/5 ₹104 3/5 ₹110

26-Dec-2014 Q2FY15 result update 4/5 ₹127 3/5 ₹123

30-Dec-2015 Detailed report 4/5 ₹127 3/5 ₹138

07-Apr-2016 Q3FY16 result update 4/5 ₹135 3/5 ₹130

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NRB Bearings Ltd

Annexure: Financials (Consolidated)

Source: CRISIL Research

Income statement Balance Sheet

(₹ mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E (₹ mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Operating incom e 6,093 6,685 6,654 7,784 8,839 Liabilities

EBITDA 1,075 1,261 1,052 1,412 1,648 Equity share capital 194 194 194 194 194

EBITDA m argin 17.7% 18.9% 15.8% 18.1% 18.6% Reserves 1,997 2,348 2,632 3,040 3,527

Depreciation 356 310 260 301 318 Minorities 24 29 34 38 43 EBIT 720 951 792 1,111 1,329 Net w orth 2,215 2,571 2,859 3,272 3,764

Interest 196 194 136 116 130 Convertible debt - - - -

Operating PBT 524 757 656 995 1,199 Other debt 3,162 3,273 2,473 2,473 2,573 Other income 30 45 56 24 18 Total debt 3,162 3,273 2,473 2,473 2,573 Exceptional inc/(exp) (2) (2) - - - Deferred tax liability (net) 123 120 120 120 120 PBT 551 800 712 1,019 1,218 Total liabilities 5,500 5,964 5,453 5,865 6,458 Tax provision 214 263 234 335 400 Assets

Minority interest 7 5 5 5 5 Net fixed assets 2,320 2,569 2,535 2,470 2,598 PAT (Reported) 330 532 473 680 813 Capital WIP 545 203 203 203 203 Less: Exceptionals (2) (2) - - - Total fixed assets 2,865 2,772 2,738 2,673 2,801 Adjusted PAT 332 534 473 680 813 Investm ents 2 2 2 2 2

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 1,450 1,642 1,635 1,913 2,172

FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Sundry debtors 1,904 2,120 1,956 2,288 2,599

Grow th Loans and advances 1,731 2,037 2,028 2,372 2,694

Operating income (%) 3.1 9.7 (0.5) 17.0 13.6 Cash & bank balance 56 278 81 37 56 EBITDA (%) 0.4 17.3 (16.6) 34.2 16.7 Marketable securities 1 1 1 1 1 Adj PAT (%) (26.0) 60.8 (11.5) 43.7 19.6 Total current assets 5,142 6,078 5,700 6,610 7,521 Adj EPS (%) (26.0) 60.8 (11.5) 43.7 19.6 Total current liabilities 2,520 2,901 3,001 3,434 3,879 Net current assets 2,621 3,177 2,699 3,177 3,641

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 13 14 14 14 14

EBITDA margin (%) 17.7 18.9 15.8 18.1 18.6 Total assets 5,500 5,964 5,453 5,865 6,458 Adj PAT Margin (%) 5.5 8.0 7.1 8.7 9.2

RoE (%) 15.8 22.3 17.4 22.2 23.1 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 14.3 16.9 14.2 20.1 22.0 (₹ mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

RoIC (%) 11.3 14.3 12.4 15.0 16.1 Pre-tax profit 554 802 712 1,019 1,218 Total tax paid (193) (266) (234) (335) (400)

Valuations Depreciation 356 310 260 301 318

Price-earnings (x) 37.8 23.5 26.6 18.5 15.4 Working capital changes (311) (334) 281 (521) (446) Price-book (x) 5.7 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.3 Net cash from operations 406 513 1,019 464 690 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.6 12.4 14.2 10.6 9.2 Cash from investm ents

EV/Sales (x) 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.7 Capital expenditure (698) (218) (227) (236) (446) Dividend payout ratio (%) 32.3 28.2 33.2 33.2 33.2 Investments and others 0 (0) - - - Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.1 Net cash from investm ents (698) (219) (227) (236) (446)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - - - - -

Inventory days 121 128 123 125 126 Debt raised/(repaid) 439 111 (800) - 100 Creditors days 76 74 74 76 76 Dividend (incl. tax) (125) (175) (189) (272) (325) Debtor days 107 109 101 101 101 Others (incl extraordinaries) 3 (7) - (0) 0 Working capital days 144 149 136 139 140 Net cash from financing 317 (72) (989) (272) (225) Gross asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 Change in cash position 25 222 (197) (44) 19 Net asset turnover (x) 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.1 3.5 Closing cash 56 278 81 37 56 Sales/operating assets (x) 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.2

Current ratio (x) 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 Debt-equity (x) 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7

Net debt/equity (x) 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 Quarterly financials (Standalone)

Interest coverage (₹ mn) Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16

EBIT/Interest (x) 3.7 4.9 5.8 9.6 10.2 Net Sales 1,664 1,562 1,600 1,681 1,588 EBITDA/Interest (x) 5.5 6.5 7.8 12.2 12.7 Change (q-o-q) (5.6) (6.1) 2.4 5.1 (5.5)

FY17E FY18E EBITDA 304 215 232 308 203

Per share Change (q-o-q) (7.4) (29.3) 7.8 32.9 (34.3)

FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E EBITDA margin 18.3 13.8 14.5 18.3 12.8 Adj EPS (₹) 3.4 5.5 4.9 7.0 8.4 PAT 123 117 105 157 78 CEPS (₹) 7.1 8.7 7.6 10.1 11.7 Adj PAT 123 117 105 157 78 Book value (₹) 22.9 26.5 29.5 33.8 38.8 Change (q-o-q) (17.5) (5.4) (9.8) 48.9 (50.3) Dividend (₹) 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.3 2.8 Adj PAT margin 7.4 7.5 6.6 9.3 4.9 Actual o/s shares (mn) 96.9 96.9 96.9 96.9 96.9 Adj EPS 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.6 0.8

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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

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