CRISIL's outlook on near-term rates

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CRISIL’s outlook on near-term rates

December 2019

Research

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Research

Analytical contacts

Jiju Vidyadharan

Senior Director - Funds & Fixed Income Research [email protected]

Richa Dhariwal

Associate Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research [email protected]

Ankit Kala

Associate Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research [email protected]

Dharmakirti Joshi Chief Economist

[email protected] Dipti Deshpande

Senior Economist, CRISIL Ltd.

[email protected]

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Research

Yield on the 10-year new benchmark government security (g-sec) rose from 6.45% at the beginning of November to a high of 6.57%, before coming down to 6.52% at mid-month and closing the month at 6.47%, within CRISIL’s forecast range of 6.35%-6.55%.

G-sec yields began November with an upward bias, due to

uncertainty about the US-China trade deal, a rise in crude oil prices and an increase in US Treasury rates. Fears about the possibility of fiscal slippage in India dampened the market participants’

risk appetite. Yields hardened further mid-month after Moody’s downgraded India’s rating outlook from ‘Stable’ to ‘Negative’, fuelling fears about FPI (foreign portfolio investment) outflows; the 10-year benchmark g-sec yield went up 12 bps to 6.57% from the beginning of the month on this. The 10-year yield ended the first fortnight at 6.52%, despite a higher CPI print at 4.62% (the highest level in the past 16 months) versus 3.99% in the previous month and above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort level of 4%.

Higher expectations about a rate cut by the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the upcoming policy cooled down yields.

Yields on g-secs remained stable within the 6.46%-6.51% range in the second half of the month. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the disinvestment of five PSUs, providing some cushion to the Central government’s strained revenues. The market’s mood turned downbeat ahead of the comment by the RBI governor Shaktikanta Das on the stressed fiscal positions of the Centre and states. Yields remained range-bound on continued expectations about a rate cut (because of poor GDP forecast estimates for the second quarter of fiscal 2020) and profit booking by market participants. However, they closed the month at 6.47%.

The spread over the new 10-year benchmark g-sec was 98 basis points (bps) for corporate bonds and 68 bps for SDL (state- development loan). CRISIL’s view for the 6.45% GS 2029 yield is 6.60%-6.80% for December-end and 6.70%-6.90% for February- end. We expect the spreads for SDLs and corporate bonds to remain steady over the next three months.

Executive

summary

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Research

On interest rates

One-month view

In December, yields are likely to be affected by fiscal

developments, monetary policy outcomes (Indian and global central banks), US-China trade war, minutes of the MPC’s meetings, crude oil prices, global interest rates and FPI flows.

Three-month view

In the three months through February, yields are likely to be affected by the expectations from the Union Budget for 2020-21 and the next MPC meeting, fiscal developments, global interest rates, US-China trade war, the rupee-dollar equation, and global central banks’ policy stance.

Framework for outlook

CRISIL provides its outlook on key benchmark rates for different debt classes – 10-year g-secs, SDLs, and corporate bonds. The outlook is arrived at by combining statistical models with inputs from our experts. The judgement incorporates our view on policy expectations, macroeconomic outlook, key events (Indian and global), and market factors (liquidity and demand/supply), among others. All yields quoted in the document are closing levels.

CRISIL’s

outlook

^Benchmark ^November30, 2019 (A) December 31,

2019 (F) February 29, 2020 (F) 10-year g-sec yield

(6.45% GS 2029) 6.47% 6.60%-6.80% 6.70%-6.90%

10-year SDL yield 7.15% 7.30%-7.50% 7.40%-7.60%

10-year corporate

bond yield 7.45% 7.60%-7.80% 7.70%-7.90%

Note: Levels and forecasts are for current benchmark/ on the run security (6.45% GS 2029)

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Research

Economic parameter Our view Impact on

yields GDP growth • We have revised down our GDP forecast to 5.1% for fiscal

2020 from 6.3% estimated earlier, given the sharp fall in growth in the first half of the fiscal and expectation of only a mild recovery in the second half.

• We believe the second half will see a mild pick-up, led by adequate monsoon and the support to the rural economy, some delayed impact of repo-rate cuts, and the spillover of recent pick-up in government spending. The effect of a low base will also help.

• GDP growth dropped to 4.5% on-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2020 from 5% in the previous quarter.

CPI inflation • CPI inflation is expected to pick up to an average of 3.6% in fiscal 2020, compared with 3.4% in 2019.

• The uptick is largely expected on higher food prices. How- ever, weak core and fuel inflation will limit the upside.

• CPI inflation rose to 4.62% in October from 3.99% in Sep- tember.

RBI’s monetary policy • We believe monetary policy will remain tilted towards a rate cut, given that the economy is likely to remain below potential over the next few quarters.

• Data surprises, of course, will hold the sway. Three developments to watch out for before the next monetary policy are:

(a) fiscal policy stance in the upcoming Budget; (b) developments on the food inflation front and the impact of telecom price increases; and (c) monetary transmission and credit growth.

• The MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.15% in its De- cember meeting.

Fiscal deficit

• The Central government has targeted a fiscal deficit of 3.3% of GDP in this fiscal, compared with 3.4% in the previous year. However, risks of fiscal slippage have risen, given slowing tax collections and weak GDP growth.

Achieving this fiscal target would require aggressive disinvestments.

• The fiscal deficit has already reached 102% of the full-year target in the first seven months of fiscal 2020. However, this is slightly lower than 103.9% in the same period last year.

Factors influencing outlook

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Economic parameter Our view Impact on

yields Crude oil prices • CRISIL Research expects crude oil prices to range in $63-

$68 per barrel in 2019, compared with $71.1 per barrel in the previous year.

• Brent crude oil prices averaged $62.7 per barrel in

November, 5.7% higher on-month, but 3.7% lower on-year.

Current account deficit

• Current account deficit (CAD) is expected to narrow to 1.4%

of GDP in fiscal 2020, from 2.1% of GDP in fiscal 2019.

• The easing is expected because of low crude oil prices relative to last year and weak domestic demand.

• CAD stood at 2% of GDP in the first quarter of fiscal 2020. Monthly trade data for the next quarter indicates a significant reduction in deficit.

US Federal Reserve’s stance

• S&P Global expects the US Fed to keep its policy rate on hold at 1.50%-1.75% through 2020.

• In its October meeting, the Fed had cut rate by 25 bps to 1.50%-1.75%.

Liquidity indicators

- Demand & Supply

Supply side

• Additional supply of government securities might be infused in the coming months to meet the fiscal gap Demand side

• PSU Bond ETF may increase demand for liquid AAA corporate bonds, which will be a part of the index constituents

• Demand for AA and lower-rated non-banking financial company (NBFC) and housing finance company (HFC) paper remains low. A vast difference in spreads is

observed between AAA-rated prime paper and lower-rated paper in these segments.

- Call rates/LAF (liquidity adjust- ment facility)

• Interbank call money rates remained below the RBI’s repo rate of 5.15% in the month on the back of comfortable liquidity in the system, which prompted the central bank to conduct frequent reverse-repo auctions and provide op- portunities to park idle cash. However, sporadic stress was witnessed in liquidity to meet the demand for Goods and Services Tax (GST) payments.

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Research

The 10-year g-sec yield remained range-bound between 6.45% and 6.57% in November, closing the month at 6.47%, 2 bps higher than the previous month.

Corporate bonds and SDLs ended the month at 7.45% and 7.15%, 14 bps and 4 bps lower than the previous month, respectively.

The spreads of SDLs and corporate bonds over the 10-year new government security narrowed 6 bps on-month for the 10-year SDLs and 16 bps for 10 year AAA-rated public sector corporate bonds in November.

November at a glance

Source: CRISIL Research

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

11.00%

30-Nov-11 30-Mar-12 31-Jul-12 30-Nov-12 28-Mar-13 31-Jul-13 29-Nov-13 28-Mar-14 31-Jul-14 28-Nov-14 31-Mar-15 31-Jul-15 30-Nov-15 31-Mar-16 29-Jul-16 30-Nov-16 31-Mar-17 31-Jul-17 30-Nov-17 28-Mar-18 31-Jul-18 30-Nov-18 31-Mar-19 31-Jul-19 30-Nov-19

10 year benchmark yields

10 year G-Sec 10 year SDL 10 year corporate bonds 6.42%

6.44%

6.46%

6.48%

6.50%

6.52%

6.54%

6.56%

6.58% 10 year G-sec benchmark yield

Possibility of fiscal slippage &

rise in OIS rates

India's outlook downgraded by Moody'S

Fiscal slippage concerns

Expectations of higher Q2 GDP numbers

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Research

Source: CRISIL Research

Average Trading Volume

In November, trading volume of certificates of deposits (CDs) and commercial paper (CPs) increased ~15% on-month (most volumes are observed in up to 1-month) and marginally for government securities. The average volume for T-bills declined ~23% on-month (buy-and-hold strategy is adopted by the market participants) and remained flattish for SDLs and corporate bonds. Average volumes of all products were lower than their 12-month average.

Systemic liquidity

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 12 Month- Avg Monthly Average Trading Volumes (Rs Cr)

SDL T-Bill CD

CP Corporate Bonds G-Sec (R.H.S.)

* Net liquidity is calculated as Repo+MSF+SLF-Reverse Repo

-350000 -300000 -250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0

01-Oct-19 07-Oct-19 13-Oct-19 19-Oct-19 25-Oct-19 31-Oct-19 06-Nov-19 12-Nov-19 18-Nov-19 24-Nov-19 30-Nov-19

Net liquidity injected [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*

(Rs Cr)

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• The banking system continued to register surplus liquidity over the past six months. November witnessed an average surplus liquidity of ~Rs 2,38,000 crore versus ~Rs 1,95,000 crore in the previous month.

• Liquidity has remained in surplus, as incremental deposit growth outpaced incremental credit growth and as foreign currency reserves increased on higher FPI inflow.

• Net liquidity in the system moderates during statutory tax payments, fortnightly reporting by scheduled commercial banks and ahead of festivities.

• Spreads for PSU rated companies continue to narrow for AAA, AA+ & AA rated curve and remain stable for AA- curve in the past 4 months

• Spreads for NBFC and HFC curve has only narrowed in the AAA segment and lower rated category spreads have not shown similar trend. AA- rated issuers continue to face higher cost of borrowing due to lack of risk appetite and fragile sentiments from market participants.

Spreads for PSU, NBFCs, and HFCs narrow for AAA and AA+ categories

Spreads over G-sec*

Rating Catego- ry

Date PSU / Cor-

porates NBFC Housing

Finance Companies

AAA 31-Oct-19 0.51% 2.51% 1.16%

30-Nov-19 0.40% 2.27% 0.87%

AA+ 31-Oct-19 1.45% 3.72% 3.36%

30-Nov-19 1.34% 3.17% 3.07%

AA 31-Oct-19 2.31% 5.56% 4.39%

30-Nov-19 2.10% 5.41% 4.12%

AA- 31-Oct-19 2.55% 6.50% 5.41%

30-Nov-19 2.66% 6.78% 5.17%

*Spreads are for five-year securities over annualised g-secs Source: CRISIL Research

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Research

The spread between yields on the 10-year new benchmark g-sec and the 10-year US Treasury narrowed to 469 bps from 476 bps in the previous month, due to an increase in the US treasury rates in November.

The average spread between the repo rate and the 10-year new benchmark g-sec was ~135 bps in November, higher than the 12-month average spread of 118 bps and the 10-year average of ~93

Spread over US Treasury yield narrows

Spreads over Repo rate narrows

Source: CRISIL Research Source: CRISIL Research

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

30-Nov-10 31-May-11 30-Nov-11 31-May-12 30-Nov-12 31-May-13 30-Nov-13 31-May-14 30-Nov-14 31-May-15 30-Nov-15 31-May-16 30-Nov-16 31-May-17 30-Nov-17 31-May-18 30-Nov-18 31-May-19 30-Nov-19

10 year benchmark yields

INR 10 year G-Sec US 10 year G-Sec

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

Historical Term premium

Term Premium10 year G-sec- Repo rate

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Research

Net Investments by FPIs

November saw an FPI outflow of Rs 2,358 crore in the debt market and a total inflow (including equity and hybrid) of Rs 22,999 crore.

FPI investors continued their buying streak in November in the equity market, but the trend reversed for the debt market. Major outflows were seen in the financial services sector, as per the data shared by NSDL (updated until November 15, 2019).

Source: CRISIL Research, National Securities Depository Ltd

(10,970) 43

3,414

(10,198) (9,978)

5,610 4,749

(1,301) (6,037)

12,002

(5,099) 1,111

8,319

9,433 11,672

(990) 3,670

(2,358)

-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000

FPI net investments in Debt (Rs Cr)

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Research

Key downgrades and upgrades in the past one month

Downgrades

Issuer name Old rating New rating

Essel Finance Business Loans Ltd. CRISIL B+ CRISIL D Aasan Corporate Solutions Pvt. Ltd. [ICRA]A+(SO) [ICRA]A-(SO) Piramal Realty Pvt. Ltd. [ICRA]A+(SO) [ICRA]A-(SO)

Gruh Finance Ltd. [ICRA]AAA [ICRA]AA

Yes Bank Ltd.-AT1 CARE A- CARE BBB+

Yes Bank Ltd.(Lower tier II) CARE AA- CARE A+

Bajaj Electricals Ltd. [ICRA]A [ICRA]A-

Peninsula Land Ltd. BWR BBB- BWR C

Vodafone Idea Ltd. CRISIL BBB+ CRISIL BBB-

Starlite Lighting Ltd. [ICRA]A(SO) [ICRA]A-(SO) Simplex Infrastructures Ltd. CARE BBB CARE BB+

Upgrades

Issuer name Old rating New rating

Kogta Financial (India) Ltd. CARE BBB+ CARE A- Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd. [ICRA]A [ICRA]A+

Jhajjar Power Ltd. IND A+ IND AA-

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Research

Index dashboard – November 2019

Index Yield*

(EOM) Yield*

(BOM) MD* MacD* 1-M 3-M 12-M 3Y 5Y

Composite Indices

CRISIL Liquid Fund Index 5.49 5.40 0.10 0.11 0.48 1.48 7.04 7.04 7.41

CRISIL Ultra Short Term Debt Index 5.84 6.06 0.37 0.40 0.57 1.78 8.21 7.56 7.87 CRISIL Low Duration Debt Index 6.50 6.60 0.81 0.87 0.56 1.94 9.00 7.65 8.25 CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund Index 7.13 7.12 1.92 2.05 0.68 2.31 10.38 7.30 8.26 CRISIL Medium Term Debt Index 7.78 7.76 3.19 3.41 0.94 2.78 11.71 7.29 8.79 CRISIL Medium To Long Term Debt

Index 7.28 7.33 5.23 5.51 1.21 2.27 12.64 6.72 8.87

CRISIL Long Term Debt Index 7.54 7.60 7.07 7.44 1.33 1.96 13.82 6.15 9.02 CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index 7.21 7.24 4.82 5.05 0.99 1.98 12.38 6.59 8.77 CRISIL Dynamic Debt Index 7.11 7.14 4.23 4.44 1.00 2.13 12.00 6.46 8.63 CRISIL Long Term Corporate Bond

Index 8.55 8.56 5.86 6.31 1.38 2.41 12.05 6.26 8.63

CRISIL Medium Term Corporate

Bond Index 8.00 7.95 3.13 3.36 0.93 2.83 11.60 7.20 8.79

CRISIL Short Term Corporate Bond

Index 7.11 7.20 1.20 1.29 0.88 2.59 10.78 8.04 8.62

CRISIL Corporate Bond Composite

Index 7.80 7.84 3.27 3.51 1.10 2.60 11.57 7.00 8.70

CRISIL Short Term Credit Risk Index 8.31 8.50 1.17 1.26 1.07 3.04 10.71 8.01 8.97 CRISIL Composite Credit Risk Index 9.02 9.13 2.81 3.04 1.20 3.00 9.40 6.94 8.82 CRISIL Banking and PSU Debt Index 7.01 7.14 2.99 3.21 1.24 2.54 11.44 7.72 8.76 Gilt Indices

CRISIL Short Term Gilt Index 5.85 5.90 2.51 2.59 0.64 1.85 10.72 7.34 8.48 CRISIL Medium Term Gilt Index 6.61 6.64 5.31 5.49 0.82 1.59 12.50 6.22 8.95 CRISIL Long Term Gilt Index 7.00 6.98 8.35 8.65 0.69 0.74 14.64 5.72 9.36 CRISIL Composite Gilt Index 6.74 6.74 6.66 6.88 0.73 1.03 13.14 5.95 8.96 CRISIL Dynamic Gilt Index 6.50 6.52 5.35 5.53 0.76 1.37 12.31 5.77 8.61 CRISIL 10 Year Gilt Index* 6.47 6.66 6.56 6.78 0.83 1.19 12.96 4.97 8.13 CRISIL Broad Based Long Term Gilt

Index 7.08 7.06 9.34 9.67 0.63 0.42 14.68 6.20 9.80

CRISIL Broad Based Medium Term

Gilt Index 6.66 6.68 5.44 5.63 0.80 1.63 12.96 6.95 9.37

CRISIL Broad Based Short Term Gilt

Index 5.74 5.82 2.14 2.21 0.68 1.85 10.32 7.23 8.34

CRISIL Broad Based Gilt Index 6.57 6.58 6.12 6.33 0.69 1.19 12.92 6.70 9.30 SDL Index

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Index Yield*

(EOM) Yield*

(BOM) MD* MacD* 1-M 3-M 12-M 3Y 5Y

CRISIL 10 Year SDL Index 7.18 7.20 6.95 7.20 0.78 1.57 16.41 6.78 9.64

Credit Indices

CRISIL AAA Long Term Bond Index 7.58 7.72 6.22 6.66 1.88 2.92 15.66 7.18 9.12 CRISIL AAA Medium Term Bond

Index 7.03 7.11 3.13 3.35 1.29 3.27 12.68 7.39 8.80

CRISIL AAA Short Term Bond Index 6.41 6.53 1.33 1.42 0.85 2.54 11.03 7.94 8.45 CRISIL AAA up to 1 Year Short Term

Bond Index 5.91 6.00 0.59 0.63 0.63 2.22 9.09 7.87 8.20

CRISIL AAA 1 to 3 Year Short Term

Bond Index 6.80 6.91 2.20 2.35 0.97 2.67 12.01 8.13 8.72

CRISIL Composite AA Long Term

Bond Index 11.59 11.11 4.96 5.47 -0.40 -0.05 1.86 4.06 7.35

CRISIL Composite AA Medium Term

Bond Index 11.03 10.65 3.11 3.37 -0.01 1.69 8.51 6.78 8.84

CRISIL Composite AA Short Term

Bond Index 8.74 8.75 0.88 0.95 0.92 2.67 10.18 8.16 8.88

CRISIL AA and AA+ Long Term Bond

Index 10.29 10.38 4.87 5.29 1.77 3.28 5.30 4.42 7.43

CRISIL AA and AA+ Medium Term

Bond Index 11.32 10.83 3.02 3.28 -0.36 1.49 8.41 6.61 8.48

CRISIL AA and AA+ Short Term

Bond Index 9.18 8.98 0.69 0.75 0.74 2.53 9.38 7.73 8.62

CRISIL AA and AA+ up to 1 Year

Short Term Bond Index 7.81 8.06 0.42 0.46 0.73 2.63 9.80 7.71 8.43

CRISIL AA and AA+ 1 to 3 Year Short

Term Bond Index 12.20 10.93 1.61 1.79 -0.80 1.20 7.75 7.15 8.16

CRISIL AA+ Long Term Bond Index 11.81 11.15 5.25 5.79 -0.83 -1.45 3.44 3.72 7.36 CRISIL AA+ Medium Term Bond

Index 14.02 12.17 3.24 3.51 -4.14 -3.42 4.34 5.70 7.89

CRISIL AA+ Short Term Bond Index 8.73 8.55 0.68 0.74 0.69 2.13 9.73 7.96 8.68 CRISIL AA Long Term Bond Index 9.54 9.84 4.93 5.34 2.45 4.35 3.33 4.22 7.44 CRISIL AA Medium Term Bond Index 9.93 10.07 2.95 3.20 1.44 3.69 10.52 7.39 9.18 CRISIL AA Short Term Bond Index 8.30 8.68 1.15 1.24 1.27 3.52 10.81 8.30 9.14 CRISIL AA- Long Term Bond Index 12.70 12.12 4.00 4.51 -1.48 0.77 1.89 4.80 8.42 CRISIL AA- Medium Term Bond

Index 9.26 9.82 3.31 3.64 2.64 4.46 7.85 7.42 9.78

CRISIL AA- Short Term Bond Index 9.42 9.47 1.07 1.17 1.07 3.03 10.35 8.90 9.87 CRISIL A Medium to Long Term

Bond Index 10.08 10.20 4.34 4.57 1.62 1.99 11.37 8.37 10.08

CRISIL A Short Term Bond Index 10.24 10.38 1.31 1.41 1.10 3.06 10.87 7.82 9.43

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Research

Index Yield*

(EOM) Yield*

(BOM) MD* MacD* 1-M 3-M 12-M 3Y 5Y

CRISIL Medium to Long Term Bank-

ing Debt Index 8.80 9.01 4.44 4.83 1.74 2.88 13.25 8.80 9.87

CRISIL Short Term Banking Debt

Index 8.64 8.96 1.83 1.99 1.53 3.45 11.75 9.42 9.25

CRISIL Medium to Long Term PSU

Debt Index 7.63 7.77 5.88 6.26 1.91 3.28 14.55 7.27 9.35

CRISIL Short Term PSU Debt Index 6.10 6.20 1.39 1.48 0.81 2.40 10.31 7.64 8.25 Money Market Indices

CRISIL Overnight Index 4.90 4.84 0.42 1.27 5.91 5.99 6.44

CRISIL 1 Month CD Index 5.13 4.98 0.06 0.07 0.44 1.39 6.56 6.62 7.03

CRISIL 1 Year CD Index 6.74 6.76 0.90 0.96 0.58 2.18 10.08 7.46 7.99

CRISIL Composite CD Index 5.48 5.59 0.24 0.25 0.50 1.60 7.71 7.13 7.55

CRISIL 1 Month CP Index 6.04 5.63 0.07 0.07 0.51 1.52 7.04 7.08 7.51

CRISIL 1 Year CP Index 7.29 8.39 0.86 0.93 0.88 1.94 9.83 7.83 8.31

CRISIL Composite CP Index 5.87 6.20 0.23 0.25 0.56 1.73 8.17 7.72 8.01

CRISIL 1 Month T-Bill Index 4.90 4.90 0.09 0.09 0.43 1.33 6.21 6.35 6.84 CRISIL 2 Month T-Bill Index 4.90 4.95 0.16 0.17 0.44 1.38 6.40 6.51 7.14 CRISIL 91 day T-Bill Index 4.85 5.01 0.23 0.25 0.47 1.44 6.75 6.63 7.03 CRISIL 182 day T-bill index 5.08 5.14 0.47 0.50 0.47 1.54 7.12 6.68 7.16 CRISIL 1 Year T-Bill Index 5.11 5.24 0.95 0.99 0.63 1.88 8.08 6.72 7.24 CRISIL Composite T-Bill Index 4.99 5.11 0.50 0.53 0.52 1.59 7.16 6.68 7.12 CRISIL Money Market Index 5.61 5.85 0.28 0.30 0.54 1.67 7.86 7.39 7.71 CRISIL Money Market Index-Insur-

ance 5.75 5.89 0.55 0.58 0.60 1.74 8.02 7.02 7.46

Dollar Indices

CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Dollar

Index -0.04 2.03 9.14 4.98 5.63

CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund Dol-

lar Index -0.35 2.36 7.19 5.68 5.14

CRISIL Liquid Fund Dollar Index -0.55 1.53 3.96 5.42 4.32

CRISIL Dynamic Gilt Dollar Index -0.27 1.41 9.08 4.18 5.48

CRISIL 10 Year Gilt Dollar Index -0.20 1.23 9.70 3.38 5.02

CRISIL 91 day T-Bill Dollar Index -0.55 1.49 3.67 5.02 3.95

CRISIL 1 Year T-Bill Dollar Index -0.40 1.93 4.96 5.11 4.15

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Index Yield*

(EOM) Yield*

(BOM) MD* MacD* 1-M 3-M 12-M 3Y 5Y

CRISIL FPI Dollar Index -0.03 2.06 9.16 4.75 5.73

Hybrid Indices

CRISIL Hybrid 25+75 - Aggressive

Index 1.53 7.68 11.01 12.10 9.08

CRISIL Hybrid 50+50 - Moderate

Index 1.35 5.76 11.56 10.34 9.10

CRISIL Hybrid 75+25 - Conservative

Index 1.17 3.86 12.01 8.50 9.00

CRISIL Hybrid 35+65 - Aggressive

Index 1.46 6.91 11.24 11.40 9.10

Index 1.24 4.62 11.84 9.24 9.05

Index 1.10 3.11 12.17 7.75 8.92

CRISIL Short Term Debt Hybrid

75+25 Fund Index 0.94 4.11 10.50 9.03 8.61

CRISIL Short Term Debt Hybrid

60+40 Fund Index 1.10 5.20 10.54 10.03 8.76

CRISIL Arbitrage Index 0.47 1.54 6.91 7.98 7.98

CRISIL Equity Savings Index 0.94 4.51 9.92 10.71 8.68

FPI indices

CRISIL FPI Index 7.22 7.25 4.81 5.05 1.00 2.01 12.41 6.36 8.86

Commodity Indices

CRISIL Gold Index -1.23 -4.21 25.66 10.10 8.25

*MD and MacD are as on the beginning of the month Returns for periods more than one year are annualised

* The 10 Year Gilt Index opening yield is for ISIN IN0020180454 and the closing yield is for ISIN IN0020190362 Returns for periods more than one year are annualised

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CRISIL Research, a division of CRISIL Limited (CRISIL) has taken due care and caution in preparing this Report based on the information obtained by CRISIL from sources which it considers reliable (Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. This Report is not a recommendation to invest / disinvest in any company / entity covered in the Report and no part of this report should be construed as an investment advice. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ distributors of this Report. CRISIL Research operates independently of, and does not have access to information obtained by CRISIL’s Ratings Division / CRISIL Risk and Infrastructure Solutions Limited (CRIS), which may, in their regular operations, obtain information of a confidential nature. The views expressed in this Report are that of CRISIL Research and not of CRISIL’s Ratings Division / CRIS. No part of this Report may be published / reproduced in any form without CRISIL’s prior written approval.

CRISIL's outlook on near-term rates

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