1 | C o m m o d i t y Pr o f i l e f o r W h e a t – A u g u s t - 2 0 1 7
(as on 17.08.2017) Commodity Profile of Wheat for August 2017
Contents
1. Wheat estimates for India ... 2
2. Wheat estimates for the World ... 2
3. India’s Wheat Production, Area under Cultivation and Yield... 3
4. Global Production ... 3
5. Major Exporters and Importers of Wheat ... 4
6. India’s Top 10 Export Destinations ... 5
7. Trade flow for Wheat ... 5
8. Domestic and International Price Movement ... 6
9. Minimum Support Price (MSP) ... 6
10.1 Wheat Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis ... 6
10.2 Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis ... 7
11 Future prices of wheat ... 7
12. Trade Policy ... ..8
13. Significant changes for the month………...8
2 | C o m m o d i t y Pr o f i l e f o r W h e a t – A u g u s t - 2 0 1 7
1. Wheat estimates for India(crop year 2016-17 and marketing year 2017- 2018)
(Quantity in Million Metric Tonnes) Table 1: Estimated Figure of Wheat Production, Trade, Consumption and Stock of India 2016-17 2017-18
Estimate##
Particulars/Year June,2017 Source
9.43 8.05 Opening Stock in Central Pool 33.44 DoFPD
97.44** 92.08 Production N.A DES
5.75* 2.09 Total Imports 0.38* DoC
112.62 102.22 Availability -
0.26* 1.26 Total Export 0.09* DoC
8.05 13.26 Ending Stock in Central Pool 32.27 DoFPD
104.31 87.70 Total Availability for Domestic Consumption
-
Sources: Department of Food & Public Distribution (DoFPD); Department of Commerce (DoC); Directorate of Economics & Statistics (DES); Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DoAC).
**As per 3rd Advance estimates for 2016-17 released on 09.05.2017.Availability: opening stock in central pool plus production plus Imports; Total Availability for Domestic Consumption: Availability minus (total export plus ending stock in central pool)
## For preparing estimates of 2017-18, opening stock in central pool is from Department of Food & Public Distribution (DoFPD) and Production, Imports, Exports and Ending Stock is last 3 years average.
*The figure of export and import is for the month of April - June, 2017.
It may be seen that FCI stocks ending in June, 2017 is 32.27 million MT against 30.18 million MT in the corresponding period of last year.
2. Wheat estimates for the World
(Quantity in Million Metric Tonnes) Table 2: Wheat Production, Trade, Consumption and Stock of the World
Particular/Year 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 ( Projected)
Production 738 754 732
Trade 166 175 170
Consumption 718 736 735
Carry Over Stock 225 244 241
Source: International Grains Council (IGC)
During 2015-16 and 2016-17, the world production has increased by 2.16 percent (from 738 million MT to 754 million MT) and world trade increased by 5.42 per cent, (from 166 million MT to 175 million MT) respectively, and consumption has increased by 2.50 percent (from 718 million MT to 736 million MT). As a result, change in carry over stock has increased by 8.44 percent.
3 | C o m m o d i t y Pr o f i l e f o r W h e a t – A u g u s t - 2 0 1 7 3. India’s Wheat Area and Production during 2006-07 to 2016-17
Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics
India’s wheat production has increased in last 10 years at CAGR of 2.46 percent
Area under wheat cultivation has also increased in last 10 years at CAGR of 0.77 percent.
4. Global Production
Source: United States Department of Agriculture Database.
As a country, China was the leading wheat producing country followed by India and Russia.
India’s share in global wheat production was recorded at 12.98 percent in the year 2016- 17.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Production(in Million Tonnes)
Area(in Million Hectare)
Figure1: Wheat Area and Production
Area Production
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Million Tonnes
Figure 2: Major Wheat Producing Countries
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
4 | C o m m o d i t y Pr o f i l e f o r W h e a t – A u g u s t - 2 0 1 7 5. Major Exporters and Importers of Wheat
Source: Comtrade
US was the leading wheat exporting country in the world followed by Russia and Australia in 2016-17.
India’s share in global exports was around 0.22 percent in the year 2016-17.
Source: Comtrade
As shown in the Figure 4, Egypt was the largest importing country in the world followed by Indonesia, Algeria and in Brazil 2016-17.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Million Tonnes
Figure 3 :Major Exporting Countries
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Million Tonnes
Figure 4: Major Importing Countries
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
5 | C o m m o d i t y Pr o f i l e f o r W h e a t – A u g u s t - 2 0 1 7 6. India’s Top 10 Export Destinations
Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S)
In 2016-17, India’s major export destinations were Nepal, Bangladesh, UAE and United Kingdom.
7. Trade flow for Wheat
(Quantity in million MT)
Table 3: India’s Wheat Trade During 2013-14 to 2016-17
Year Export Import
2013-14 5.56 0.01
2014-15 2.92 0.03
2015-16 0.61 0.51
2016-17 0.26 5.75
2017-18 (April-June) 0.09 0.38
Source: Depart. Of Commerce
India’s wheat export in 2016-17 has declined by 57% over the corresponding period of the previous year in view of surplus global stocks and higher domestic prices.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Value in Rs. Crores
Figure 5: Top 10 export Destinations
2015-16 2016-17
6 | C o m m o d i t y Pr o f i l e f o r W h e a t – A u g u s t - 2 0 1 7 8. Domestic and International Price Movement
Source: Agmark database (for Domestic Price); FAO database (for international Prices)
Domestic prices have been higher than that of International prices since April 2015 onwards.
9. Minimum Support Price (MSP)
(Price in Rs./Quintal) Table – 4: The MSP of Wheat for the last 5 years
Year 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Wheat 1350 1400 1450 1525 1625
Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP)
A secular increase of Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat is recorded. This figure has increased by 20.4 percent in the last 5 years.
10.1 Wheat Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis
(Quantity in ’000 tons) Table 5- Wheat arrivals in Major Domestic Mundis
Arrivals Apr-July, 2017-18 (Cumulative)
Arrivals April- June, 2017-18 (Cumulative)
Arrivals Apr- July, 2016-17 (Cumulative)
% Change Over Previous
Month)
% Change(Over
Previous Year)
Kanpur 11.10 6.64 9.66 67.13 15.00
Mathura 6.23 5.85 33.19 6.45 -81.23
Bhopal 3.39 3.08 4.27 9.75 -20.67
Indore 9.70 8.85 7.82 9.59 24.12
Khanna 8.81 7.22 10.47 22.03 -15.86
Nagpur 0.32 0.25 0.62 28.17 -48.06
Jalana 0.09 0.08 0.03 14.20 252.69
Source: AGMARKNET and Agriwatch,
5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 19000 21000
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 July-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17
Price in Rs./Tonnes
Figure: 6 Domestic Vs International Price Movement
International prices (US No 2, Soft Red Winter Wheat) Domestic Prices, All India Monthly Average(FAQ Variety)
7 | C o m m o d i t y Pr o f i l e f o r W h e a t – A u g u s t - 2 0 1 7
The cumulative figure for wheat arrival in major Mandis shows that Kanpur was leading in July 2017 and Mathura in July 2016.
So far percentage change of wheat arrivals in major domestic mandis in July 2017 over July 2016 is concerned; all the above mandis (except Kanpur, Indore, Jalana) showed a negative growth.
10.2 Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis
(in Rs/Quintal) Table 6: Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis
Name of market
Prices June,2017
Prices May,2017
Prices June,2016
% Change (Over Previous
Month)
% Change (Over Previous
Year)
Kanpur 1640.1 1860.3 1633.56 -11.83 0.40
Mathura 1628.92 1627.93 1627.7 0.06 0.07
Bhopal 1790.99 1820.89 1747.18 -1.64 2.51
Indore 1734.2 1655.5 1773.6 4.76 -2.22
Amritsar 1683.2 1600.5 1614.6 5.17 4.25
Khanna 2026.7 2064.6 2188.2 -1.83 -7.38
Nagpur 1672.7 1635.4 1787.5 2.28 -6.42
Jalana 1640.1 1860.3 1633.56 -11.83 0.40
Source: AGMARKNET and Agriwatch database
11. Futures prices of wheat
(Unit in USD/Ton) Table 7: Future price
Contract Month
As on (07 Aug 2017)
Week Ago (31 July 2017)
Month Ago (07 July
2017)
3 Month Ago (07 May 2017)
6 Month Ago (07 Feb 2017)
1 Year Ago (07 Aug 2016)
% Change
over previous
year
Sep-17 170.29 174.33 196.56 164.87 172.22 181.22 -6.03
Dec-17 180.3 183.61 204.92 172.4 178.28 189.12 -4.66
Mar-18 187.83 191.32 211.07 178.92 182.32 194.35 -3.36
May-18 192.79 195.73 214.1 183.15 184.71 196.28 -1.78
Jul-18 195.73 198.58 215.3 185.26 185.17 190.77 2.6
Sep-18 200.23 202.99 217.5 189.21 188.94 190.77 4.96
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
Future price for wheat is expected to decrease over the previous year as shown in the Table 7.
8 | C o m m o d i t y Pr o f i l e f o r W h e a t – A u g u s t - 2 0 1 7 12. Trade Policy
12.1 Export Policy: Export of wheat is free under the extant export policy of Government of India.
12.2 Import Policy: Import of seeds is restricted. Whereas, import of wheat for human consumption is permitted through State Trading Enterprises
Table 8: Import Policy HS code Item description Import policy Standard
Duty
Bound
Duty Applied duty 10011100 Durum wheat: Of seed
quality Restricted 100 100 50%
10011900 Other Durum wheat Free* 100 100 10%**
10019100 Other: Wheat of seed
quality Restricted 100 100 50%
10019910 Other wheat Free* 100 100 10% **
10019920 Meslin State Trading
Enterprises 100 100 10%
Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Department of Revenue, and World Trade Organization (WTO) database.
*Import of wheat (HS code- 10011900 and 10019910) made free till further order vide DGFT’s Notification No.35 Dated 8th October 2007
** Import duty on wheat has been reduced from 25% to 10% vide Notification No. 51/2016- Customs dt 23rd September, 2016.The Import duty on wheat was brought down to Zero vide Notification No. 60/2016- Customs dt 8th December, 2016.
Recently, Import duty on Wheat has been increased from Zero to 10% vide Notification No. 10/2017- Customs dt 28th March, 2017.
13. Significant Changes for the Month: NIL
Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from various sources believed to be reliable. This Department will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the uses of the information provided in the commodity profile.
