ACCENT JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ECOLOGY & ENGINEERING Available Online:www.ajeee.co.in Vol.02, Issue 012, December 2017, ISSN -2456-1037 (INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL )
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“IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT AND RICE PRODUCTION AND ON THE SMALL- MARGINAL PRODUCERS IN PUNJAB”
Srishty Kasana
Ph.D. Research Scholar, University of Delhi.
ABSTRACT Senstivity of Agriculture to the climate change is high because the climate of a region/country controls the nature and characteristics of vegetation and crop. Climate specifically applies to longer term changes, in contrast to the shorter fluctuations that last hours, days, or weeks and referred as weather. According to IPCC, climate change refers to a transformation in the state of the climate that can be recognised (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that continues for an extended period, typically decades or longer. The Punjab state is a major agricultural state which is important from national food security point of view as well. However, there has been a recent slowdown in agricultural growth and large scale degradation of soil and water degradation has been witnessed. The emerging ground water fall and other important climatic changes have the potential to adversely affect the production system of the state, which may further endanger the national food security objective.
Keywords: Small-Marginal, Producers
2 INTRODUCTION
According to IPCC, climate change refers to a transformation in the state of the climate that can be recognised (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that continues for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any alteration in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
Senstivity of Agriculture to the climate change is high because the climate of a region/country controls the nature and characteristics of vegetation and crop. Climate specifically applies to longer term changes, in contrast to the shorter fluctuations that last hours, days, or weeks and referred as weather. Climate change is a topic that naturally piques our curiosity (Ruddiman, 2001). As per Food and Agricultural Organization of United Nations (FAO), India stands to lose 125 million tonnes, equivalent to 18% of its rain-fed cereal production from climate change and its risks by 2015 which would cause a worldwide drop in cereal crops, put 400 million more people at risk of hunger.
(Mahdi, Dhekale, Choudhury, Bangroo, &
Gupta, 2015). Worldwide 80 per cent of the agricultural land area is rainfed which produces 65 to 70 per cent staple foods but 70 per cent of the population dwelling in these areas are poor due to little and variable yield.
India ranks first amongst the rainfed agricultural nations of the world in terms of both degree and value of produce. (Asha, Gopinath, & Bhat, 2012)
Climate change is a major challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for millions of people including the poor in India. Adverse impact will be more on small holding farmers. (Babu, 2015) WhyPunjab?
Punjab is the fore runner in the agriculture revolution in India that started in 1960s and relieved the country from importing food grains from abroad and making it a food secure nation. Punjab has experienced a dramatic improvement in its economy since independence, which is mainly agriculture and industry driven (Government of Punjab, 2012). PHD (Government of Punjab, 2012) reveals that Punjab in 2011, produced 17224 thousand tons of food grains which was 11.26% of the total food grains produced in India. Punjab ranks 2nd and 3rd respectively amongst all states in production of wheat and rice. The key crops are rice and wheat, and Punjab produced, 11.36% and 18.41% of total rice and wheat produced from the country.
Siddu, Vatta and Lall (2011) puts forward that the Punjab example is poignant given its significant regional impact and also its national importance from contributions to
national food security.
Fig 1: Trends of Wheat and Rice Yield in Punjab
Source: Annual Plan 2011-12, Government of Punjab (Government of Punjab, 2012)
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Table 1: Summary of the Agro-Ecological Zones of the Punjab
Source: Sidhu and Vatta (n.d)
Table 2 Coding for Size of holding in land records
Source: LRISD,NIC (Hqrs) Importance of Small and Marginal farmers:
It may be noted that Indian agriculture is the home of small and marginal farmers (80%).
Therefore, the future of sustainable agriculture growth and food security in India depends on the performance of small and marginal farmers. In 2010-11. Recent data for 2012-13 shows that the share of small and marginal farmers in land holdings was 83%.
Thus, the small holding character of Indian agriculture is much more prominent today than even before (Babu, 2015). The declining productivity of soil, depleting water table, is enhancing the requirement of farm inputs resulting in higher cost of production. The
Market Support Prices (MSP), are however not increasing in commensuration with escalating input costs. This is pushing marginal and small farmers into the debt situation. 65.4% of farmer households are under debt in the state.
One of the solutions suggested by the National Commission on Farmers headed by the noted farm economist, Dr. MS Swaminathan, is to make MSP equal to the cost of production plus 50% as profit. The commission further suggests farm labour to be treated as semi- skilled and the value of land to be taken into account while working out the cost of production.
Zone Provinces
Zone I
(sub-mountainous region)
Guradaspur, Hoshiarpur, Nawar Shahar, Rupnagar, Mohali
Zone II
(central region)
Amristar, Taran Taran, Kapurthala, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Fatehgarh Sahib, Patiala, Moga, Sangrur, Barnala
Zone III
(south-western region)
Firozpur, Faridkot, Muktsar, Bathinda, Mansa
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Table 3: Summary of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in Punjab in mid- century (2021-2050)
(Source: Government of Punjab, 2012) Trends in Punjab shows that the rise in
minimum temperature is much sharper than the maximum temperature, which has serious implications for winter crops. The average precipitation has declined and mean temperature has risen. The practice of flood irrigation of rice being grown at more than 2.7
million ha area has contributed towards more humid conditions during the months of June to September. The increase in relative humidity has created favourable conditions for the increased incidence of diseases and pest attacks (Siddhu, Vatta, & Lall, 2011).
Fig 2: Rainfall Scenarios 2015 (Regionwise Distribution)
(Source: Hindustan Times, June 4 2015)
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Fig 3: Impacts on wheat and rice
Source- Rao (n.d)
Ground Water Scenario: The Central Ground Water Authority (Government of Punjab, 2012) in 2011 vide public notice 2/2011 has
„Notified‟ 12 blocks of Punjab State as over exploited areas where ground water withdrawal is more than the average annual replenishment and have declining levels. In these areas restrictions have been imposed on
the construction and installation of new structures for ground water extraction without prior approval of the Deputy Commissioner.
Only bore wells with hand pumps and open wells without pumps extracting water for domestic use and drinking purposes have been excluded.
Fig 4: Trends in Average Annual Fall in Ground Water Table in Punjab
Source: Siddhu, Vatta and Lall (2011) The declining ground water has major
economic implications for Punjab farming. The
fall in the water table necessitates larger amounts of power required to lift the same
6 amount of power. It has resulted into a steady increase in the expenditure on irrigation (at 1981-82 prices) from Rs 446 per ha in 1989- 90 to Rs 819 per ha in 2004-05. In the drought year of 2002-03, this expenditure scaled the peak of Rs 1379 per ha. (Sidhu &
Vatta, n.d)
Tube Wells: The depletion of ground water may be attributed to the increase in the number of tube wells in Punjab. The area
irrigated by tube wells and wells has increased by 52.1% in 29 years period, between 1980-81 and 2008-09, while number of tube wells has increased about 112.7% during the same period. In order to save the groundwater resources the Government of Punjab has enacted “The Punjab Preservation of Sub Soil Water Act, 2009”. It prohibits farmers from sowing paddy nursery before May 10 and transplantation of paddy before June 10.
Table 4: Net area irrigated by tube wells and no. of tube wells in Punjab
Source: Government of Punjab, 2012.
Literature Review
Various studies have been conducted by social scientist, agricultural institutions and agencies which highlight the impact of climate change on agriculture.
Chowdhury and Khan (2015) examine the potential impact of climate change on the yield of three different rice crops (namely, Aus, Aman and Boro) in Bangladesh. In the study a multiple regression analysis using OLS method is employed to evaluate the climate- crop yield interrelations on the basis of country level time series data for the period 1972-2014. As per the results revealed, all the climate variables have had significant influence on rice yield over the period under study, but these effects differamongst three dissimilar rice yields, maximum temperature is statistically significant and negatively affect the yield of all three rice crops. In contrast, minimum temperature is highly significant
and have positive impact on the yield of Boro rice only. Rainfall is found significant for all rice yields with positive effects on Aus and Aman rice and contrary effects on Boro.
Humidity has a statistically significant effect on the yield of all three rice crops. Aggarwal et al. (as cited in Pathak, Aggarwal, & Singh, 2012) puts forward that climate change impact on the yield of rice in Punjab (India) has revealed that with all additional climatic variables remaining constant, temperature increases of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, would reduce the grain yield of rice by 5.4%, 7.4% and 25.1%, respectively.
Jalota, Ray and Panigraphy (n.d) reveals that impact of climate change on cotton-wheat will be more adverse than maize-wheat and rice- wheat systems in Punjab (India). The adverse effect of increased temperature was more for maximum temperature than minimum
7 temperature. Though increase CO2 would increase the crop productivity but the magnitude of increase in crop yields was less than that of decrease by the increased temperature.Karn (2014) examines the sensitivity of rice yield in Nepal to changes in climate variables and the magnitude of potential impacts on rice productivity in the future. Estimates reveal that a 1°C rise in day-time maximum temperature during the ripening phase of rice increases harvest by 27 kg. Ashfaq, Zulifar, Sarwar, Quddus and Baig (2011) measure the effects on wheat productivity in mixed zone of Punjab (Pakistan) province.As shown by the results just one degree centigrade upsurge in mean minimum temperature at sowing stage will rise wheat productivity by 146.57 kg ha-1. It was decided that the climate change is the major factor of wheat productivity at each stage of wheat growth.
Wang, Huang and Rozelle (2010) in their analysis show that the average impact of higher temperatures on crop net revenue is negative in China, but this can be partially offset by income gains resulting from an expected increase in precipitation. Moreover, the effects of climate change on farmers will vary depending on the production methods used. Vulnerability of rainfed farmers will be more to temperature upsurge than irrigated farmers, and the effect of climate change on crop net revenue differs by season and by region. Bhattacharya and Panda (2013) puts forward that there was reduction in yield with per°C increase in temperature and increase in yield with per mm increase in rainfall in West Bengal. Grain yield increase an average of 0.35 kg/ha with per mm increase in rainfall and decrease by 156.2 kg/ha per degree rise in mean temperature at that region.
Lobell (2015) reveals the following:
Increase in carbon dioxide will improve the water use efficiency of crops. In the U.S. this will help to reduce, but not eliminate, the negative effects of increased hot and dry conditions.
With the average 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit of warming expected by 2040, yields of wheat
and barley across Europe are expected to be more than 20 percent lower than they would be without warming.
In a study by Iqbal and Siddique (n.d), they study the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Bangladesh for the period 1975-2008 for 23 regions. First, the study relies on descriptive statistics and maps to explore the long term changes at both country and local level in climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine. Second, it uses regression models to estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity.
As per the results revealed, long term changes in means and standard deviations of the climatic variables have differential impacts on the productivity of rice and thus the overall impact of climate change on agriculture is not unambiguous.Birthal, Khan, Negi and Aggarwal (2014) analyse the changes in climate variables, viz. temperature and rainfall during the period 1969-2005 and has assessed their impact on yields of important food crops. Rise in maximum temperature was found to be adversely affecting the crop yields, a similar increase in minimum temperature had a favourable effect on yields of most crops, but it was not sufficient to fully compensate the damages caused by the rise in maximum temperature.
Pigeon pea, rice, chickpea and wheat were more vulnerable to rise in temperature.
Rainfall had a positive effect on most crops, but it could not counterbalance the negative effect of temperature. Siddqui, Samad, Nasir and Jalil (n.d) in their study focus on the impact of on changes in climate change indicators on production of four major crops in Punjab Province in Pakistan. The results show that in the short run the increase in temperature is expected to affect the wheat productivity but in long term the increase in temperature has positive affect on wheat productivity. Similarly, the increase in precipitation has negative impact in both short and long term. A rise in temperature is beneficial for rice production initially.
8 Ahmed and Schmitz (2011) introduce a set of control variables for irrigation and credit were introduce in their study to see if certain existing mechanisms and practices can compensate the losses induced by climatic variability and change. For this reason, the results of the utilized model framework indicate a relatively small negative effect of climate change on the food crop sector, as it is dominated by wheat, which is an irrigated crop in Pakistan. Thus, especially irrigated farming seems to be less affected by climate change.
Haris, Biswas, Chhabra, Elanchezhian and Bhatt (2013) deal with the impact of climate change on winter wheat and maize using the Infocrop model. Simulation studies were performed for different timeperiods using HADCM3 factors at four centres located in three different agroecological zones, with prevalent management practices. The results reveal that under changed climate, wheat yield decreased whereas the yield of winter maize increased due to warmer winters and enhanced CO2 compared to baseline.Yin, Tang and Liu (2015) in their study use the projections derived from four global gridded crop models (GGCropMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the yields of the major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat) in China. The results show that the potential yields of the crops would decrease in the 21st century without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. With the CO2 effect, the potential yields of rice and soybean would increase, while the potential yields of maize and wheat would decrease.
Kaur and Vatta (2015) conclude that depletion of groundwater led to frequent deepening and shift from centrifugal to submersible pumps.
The phenomenon of borewell deepening started in the 1980s and covered almost all the farms by 1995. Smallholders increasingly opted for sharing of electric motors due to rising costs. Sharing of motors adversely affected the timing and adequate access to groundwater. Farmers were opting for water saving practices but to a lesser extent.
Smallholders were reducing the area under rice crop.
Siddhu, Vatta, & Lall, (2011) puts forward that it is due to the reason that more than 97 per cent cultivated area in Punjab is irrigated, out of which more than three-fourths of the irrigation is sourced through groundwater resources. Indiscriminate pumping of groundwater for irrigation during less rainfall years not only depletes the groundwater table but also results into increased use of energy in the farming sector.
Asha, Gopinath and Bhat (2012) put forward that the climatic variation as occurrence of drought have significant impact on the production of Rainfed crops in Dharwad.
Vulnerability of small and medium rainfed farmers were high to climate change and to a greater extent the small and medium rainfed farmers adopted coping mechanisms for climate change compared to large farmers. As suggested by the study, the impact of climate change is intensifying day by day it should be addressed through policy perspective at the earliest to avoid short term effect such as yield and income loss and long-term effects such as quitting agricultural profession by the rainfed farmers.
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Fig 5: Predicted yield variations (% change) for all observations in South Asia
Source: Knox, Hess, Daccache and Ortola (2011) Erbs et al. (as cited in Takle,2011) studied the
impact of elevated CO2 and nitrogen availability on grain quality in wheat and barley. Results reveal that increasing CO2 to twice the pre-industrial level and decreasing nitrogen to half the adequate level reduced crude protein by 4 to 13% in wheat and 11 to 13% in barley.
Ninan and Badamatta (2012) estimate the impact of climatic variables on rice productivity in the rice-wheat cropping system of the Punjab. Aggregated time series data were used for rice crop. Cobb Douglas type production function was employed with rice yield as dependent variable and climatic factors as independent variables. Results showed that an increase in temperature by 1.5oC and 3oC would enhance rice yield by 2.09% and 4.33%, respectively compared to the base year regression estimates. However, an increase in precipitation by 5% and 15%
during September-October could adversely affect rice productivity by 5.71% and 15.26%, respectively.Aggarwal et al. (as cited in Aggarwal, Kumar and Pathak, 2010) reveal that an increase in ambient CO2 is usually considered beneficial as it results in increased
photosynthesis in several crops, especially those with C3 mechanism of photosynthesis.
However, despite these beneficial effects, the combined increase in temperature and variability of rainfall would considerably affect food production. Some studies indicate a probability of 10-40 % loss in crop production in India with increase in temperature by 2080–2100.
Some studies by the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (as cited in Aggarwal, Kumar and Pathak, 2010) indicate the possibility of loss of 4-5 million tonnes in wheat production with every rise of 1º C temperature throughout the growing period even after considering carbon fertilisation but no other adaptation benefits.Bhandari (2013) in his study confirms that maximum temperature and minimum precipitation have had adverse effects on the yield of rice and maize in Dadeldhura (Nepal). Temperature is statistically significant for the yield of all cereals whereas precipitation is statistically significant for the yield of maize and barley.
Finally, precipitation and temperature have a statistically significant effect on rice and maize yield.
10 Kumar, Aggarwal, Rani, Jain,Saxena and Chauhan (2011) assess the impact of climate change on major crops in ecologically sensitive areas, viz. the Western Ghats (WG), coastal districts and northeastern (NE) states of India, using InfoCrop simulation model, projected varying impacts depending on location, climate, projected climate scenario, type of crop and its management. Irrigated rice and potato in the NE region, rice in the eastern coastal region and coconut in the WG are likely to gain. Irrigated maize, wheat and mustard in the NE and coastal regions, and
rice, sorghum and maize in the WG may lose.
Adaptation strategies such as change in variety and alteredagronomy can, however, offset the impacts of climate change. Ouraich and Tyner (as cited in Hadid (n.d)) puts forward that in Morocco climate change will substantially alter regional production patterns and induce yield shocks (mostly negatively) while driving up commodity prices.
Agricultural production is projected to decrease by up to 5 percent in the worst case scenario.
Fig 6: Change Percent in Major Crop Production (excess or deficit) in Egypt by the year 2050 due to Climate Change
Source : Hadid (n.d)
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Table 5: Change in Average Temperature and Agricultural Output
(The above table is cited in Hadid (n.d) ) Conclusion:
The Punjab state is a major agricultural state which is important from national food security point of view as well. However, there has been a recent slowdown in agricultural growth and large scale degradation of soil and water degradation has been witnessed. The emerging ground water fall and other important climatic changes have the potential to adversely affect the production system of the state, which may further endanger the national food security objective. However, the risk in Punjab agriculture cannot be defined in a traditional manner as almost entire cultivated area is under assured irrigation. Thus, the impact of climatic extremes gets mitigated by increased dependence on ground water resources in the period of extreme events. (sidhu and vatta n.d) Importance of Punjab can not be ignored at any cost as this state plays an important role in providing wheat and rice and also in terms of food security aspect. How climate change is affecting the agriculture and farmers in this state is an area which is yet to be explored further in recent scenario. Small and marginal
farmers hold the largest stake and they are the one who are facing the impact of climate change indirectly as compared to large farmers because large farmers can cope up with the climate change effects by having improved and better technology.
The unconventional risks emerging in Punjab agriculture are rapid fall in ground water due to decline in rainfall, unfavourable changes in temperature during critical periods of growth of wheat and increasing incidences of insect- pest attacks on the cotton crop due to rise in humidity caused by continuous flooding of paddy fields. It has a significant impact on the cost of production of paddy and cotton due to increased expenditure on irrigation and insecticides and temperature is also expected to negatively influence the wheat yields.
Despite all this, the variability in yields of paddy and wheat is very low and their production still seems to be risk free. Cotton is an important crop where the production risk appears to have increased during the recent period. (ibid)
ACCENT JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ECOLOGY & ENGINEERING Available Online:www.ajeee.co.in Vol.02, Issue 012, December 2017, ISSN -2456-1037 (INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL )
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