VANAKALAM (KHARIF) 2022-23 PRE-SOWING PRICE FORECAST OF REDGRAM
Redgram Price pe r Quintal will be around Rs. 5800 – 6100 at the Time of Harvesting (January to February 2023)
Redgram is commonly known as Tur or Arhar in India and is the second important pulse crop in the country after gram (chana). The ability of redgram to produce high economic yields under soil moisture deficit makes it an important crop in rainfed and dry land agriculture. World major redgram producing countries are India (42.80 lakh tonnes), Malawi (4.24 lakh tonnes), Myanmar (3.39 lakh tonnes), Tanzania (1.36 lakh tonnes) and Haiti (1.23 lakh tonnes).
All India area under redgram reported during 2021-22 was 50.02 lakh ha (123.61 lakh acres) as against 48.18 lakh ha (119.05 lakh acres) during the same period in 2020-21. In India, major redgram producing states are Maharashtra 14.47 lakh ha (35.77 lakh acres), Karnataka 13.24 lakh ha (32.72 lakh acres), Madhya Pradesh 4.28 lakh ha (10.58 lakh acres), Telangana 3.09 lakh ha (7.65 lakh acres) and Uttar Pradesh 3.54 lakh ha (8.75 lakh acres).
According to Government 3rd advance estimates, all India redgram production in 2021-22 is at 4.35 million tonnes.
In 2021-22, redgram production has increased from 42.80 lakh tonnes to 43.50 lakh tonnes. Imports increased to 8.40 lakh tonnes from 4.43 lakh tonnes. Total redgram supply has increased to 62.81 lakh tonnes from 54.29 lakh tonnes including carryout stock of 7.06 lakh tonnes. Exports have decreased to 0.25 lakh tonnes from 0.35 lakh tonnes. Also consumption increased from 43.35 lakh tonnes to 43.50 lakh tonnes. This increase in total supply leads to increase in carryout stock to 19.34 lakh tonnes for the year 2022-23. India imported redgram from Mozambique (2.86 lakh tonnes), Tanzania (1.90 lakh tonnes), Myanmar (1.70 lakh tonnes), and Malawi (0.55 lakh tonnes) in year 2022 -23.
As expected, redgram cash market continued to trade weak and the pressure on price may continue. The low off take, closure of markets and around 8.4 LMT import during last financial year pressurized redgram markets. Import volume was recorded at 60,000 MT in the month of April. Notably, the extended timeline for redgram import for a year up-to 31st March -2023 has capped the upward movement in cash market. Regular supply from the overseas markets is expected now as per requirement throughout the year. With this changed import policy, stockiest may not hold their stocks for a longer time. It would ensure a regular supply from the overseas and local stockiest. Availability is good and the prices may decrease further as the import flow would continue.
In Telangana major redgram growing districts are Vikarabad 71606 ha (176943 acres), Narayanpet 45072 ha (111374 acres), Sangareddy 36439 ha (90043 acres), Adilabad 24477 ha (60483 acres) Mahabubnagar 10917 ha (26976 acres), Yadadri 9258 ha (22877 acres) and Kamareddy 7611 lakh ha (18806 acres). According to Telangana State Government 2nd advance estimates, redgram production in 2021-22 is at 2.28 lakh tonnes from 7.76 lakh acres with productivity of 294 Kg/acre.
The Agricultural Market Intelligence Ce ntre established under a research project for development of price forecasting mechanism in the Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad at Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University with the financial support of Agricultural Marketing Department, Telangana State has assessed 2022-23 vanakalam (kharif) pre-sowing price forecast of redgram. Under expected normal rainfall and crop area coverage, it is estimated that the redgram price per quintal will be around Rs. 5800-6100 at the time of harvesting (Jan to Feb
2023). This price forecast is based on the monthly modal price of redgram obtained for 20 years from Tandur regulated market using econometric models like ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA, ARCH, GARCH, and ANN and also the market survey.
