SUBJECT

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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 13.12.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 10.12.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 02 to 08 December 2021, has been 190% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 818% in East & North East India, - Higher by 636% in Central India,

- Higher by 85% in North West India, - Higher by 14% in South Peninsula.

 Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 October 2021 to 08 December 2021, has been 52%

higher than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 104% in North West India, - Higher by 69% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 34% in Central India,

- Higher by 12% in East & North East India.

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 28 MET sub-divisions constituting 75% of total area, - Normal in 03 MET sub-division constituting 10% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 15% of total area

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 133 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 172.46 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 108 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.71 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 133 major reservoirs as on 09 December 2021 was 133.76 BCM, which is:

- 98% of last year’s storage on the same day (09 December 2020) of 136.53 BCM.

- 117% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 114.60 BCM.

 During the current Rabi season 2021, (as on 10.12.2021), 513.25 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 503.63 lakh ha during 2020-21 during the same period.

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o Wheat: 248.67 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to 254.70 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year.

o Coarse Cereals: 35.46 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to 37.15 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year.

o Pulses: 129.74 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to 129.28 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year.

o Oilseeds: 88.50 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to 72.13 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year.

 As on 10 December 2021, during KMS 2021-22, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 223.49 lakh LMT as compared to 243.42 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2020-21. About 27.50 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.

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POST-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (October – December) during the week ending 08 December, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (02 December to 08 December 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 20 met sub-divisions, normal in 01 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions and 02 met sub-divisions received no rainfall. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 October 2021 to 08 December 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 28 met sub-divisions, normal in 03 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 05 sub-divisions.

(Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years (01 October 2021 to 08 December 2021)

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 October to

07 DEC 2016

06 DEC 2017

05 DEC 2018

11 DEC 2019

09 DEC 2020

08 DEC 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

03 01 08 12

01 07 12 20

00 01 05 06

11 12 06 29

03 08 08 19

19 09 03 31 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

10 14 - 00 24

04 12 - 00 16

09 21 - 00 30

06 01 - 00 07

10 07 - 00 17

05 00 - 00 05

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 44% (-) 10% (-) 49% 30% 5% 52%

Source: IMD

Region of India Week Ending (08.12.2021) Cumulative (01.10.21 to 08.12.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 3.5 1.9 85 LE 75.7 37.1 104 LE

Central India 14.0 1.9 636 LE 95.6 71.6 34 E

South Peninsula 13.3 11.7 14 N 434.6 256.5 69 LE

East & North-East 14.7 1.6 818 LE 174.7 155.8 12 N

Country as a whole 10.7 3.7 190 LE 168.7 110.7 52 E

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1.2 Weather Forecast

 A fresh Western Disturbance likely to affect Western Himalayan Region from the night of 13^th December.

 Light to moderate rainfall activity likely to continue over parts of south peninsular India during next 5 days.

Week 1(09 – 15 December)

 Light to moderate rainfall activity likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Kerala & Mahe during the week and over Odisha, South Interior Karnataka and Telangana during next 2 days. Isolated heavy rainfall activity is likely over south Tamil Nadu on 09^th December, 2021

 No Western Disturbance is very likely to affect Northwest India during next 4-5 days

 Dry weather very likely over most parts of Northwest & Central India during next 5 days.

 Light isolated to scattered rainfall/snowfall is very likely over Arunachal Pradesh and light isolated rainfall over Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 09^th to 11^th December, 2021.

Week 2 (16 – 22 December)

 No active Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India during week 2.

 Rainfall activity is likely to be below normal over the country except Arunachal Pradesh, where it is likely to be near normal.

Minimum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (09 - 22 December, 2021)

 Overall, these are likely to be normal to below normal over most parts of the country except parts of north Peninsular India & northeastern states, where these are likely to be above normal by 2-3⁰C.

 During the week 2, Gradual fall in minimum temperatures likely over the most parts of the country as compared to week 1. These are likely to be below normal by 2 to 3⁰ C over most parts of the country except northeastern states, where these are likely to be near normal.

 Cold wave in isolated pockets is likely over part of northwest India during week 1 &

week 2.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 09 December, 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 133 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 172.46 BCM, which is about 66.89% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 133 major reservoirs decreased to 133.76 BCM from the previous week’s level of 135.07 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 136.53 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 114.60 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 133 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 114 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 12 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 06 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 01 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 78 98 117

Last Week 78 97 115

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 79% on 09.12.2020, 85% on 09.12.2019, 60% on 09.12.2018 and 61% on 09.12.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2021 (As on 09.12.2021)

(In 000’ Tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.10.2021 4269 1460 656 2787 1729

Requirement for Oct. 2021 to March 2022 17901 5873 1687 6086 3012 Estimated Requirement during December, 21 3946 948 277 1109 529

Cumulative Receipt upto 09.12.2021 5968 2541 235 2240 1163

Cumulative Availability upto 09.12.2021 10237 4001 891 5027 2892

Cumulative Sales upto 09.12.2021 8962 3228 548 3101 1759

Closing Stock as on 09.12.2021 1275 773 343 1926 1133

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

 Incidence of flower thrips & leaf thrips in chilli from Andhra Pradesh & Telangana.

o Flower thrips & leaf thrips incidence is reported in Chilli crop at Moderate to Severe intensity (above ETL) in Krishna district from Andhra Pradesh and in Bhadradri kothagudem, Khammam, Mehabubabad & Warangal districts from Telangana & Flower thrips (Thrips parvispinus) are reported at High intensity (above ETL) from Ballary, Raichur & Chitradurga districts from Karnataka. Incidence of thrips is also reported in Kamptee block, Nagpur district from Maharasthra at Moderate to Severe intensity (Above ETL).

 Bacterial Streak incidence is reported in paddy at Trace to moderate intensity in Thanjavur district from Tamil Nadu.

V. Seeds:

 A requirement of 310.86 lakh quintals of certified/quality seed indicated by the State for Rabi 2021-22 in September, 2021. Against this, an all India availability of 333.75 lakh quintals certified/quality seed was reported. An overall surplus of 22.89 lakh quintals of seed is available for Rabi 2021-22.

 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Rabi crops for Rabi 2021- 22 except maize, buck wheat, peas, rajmash and lethyrus which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd., Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.

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VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 08 December, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Urad, Moong, Copra and Groundnut.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Barley, Masur, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, sunflower, Cotton and Jute.

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VII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2021-22) as on 10-12-2021

Table 7.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2021

% of Normal for whole

season

Last Year 2020

Wheat 303.06 248.67 82.1 254.70 -6.04

Rice 42.51 10.89 25.6 10.37 0.53

Jowar 31.75 20.49 64.5 22.30 -1.80

Maize 18.15 8.81 48.5 8.72 0.08

Barley 6.14 5.76 93.8 5.67 0.10

Total Coarse Cereals 56.05 35.46 63.3 37.15 -1.69

Total Cereals 401.62 295.02 73.5 302.22 -7.20

Gram 95.66 92.89 97.1 90.68 2.22

Lentil 13.90 14.89 107.1 14.20 0.69

Peas 7.98 8.60 107.7 9.06 -0.46

Kulthi(Horse Gram) 2.00 2.86 142.9 3.44 -0.58

Urad 9.07 3.70 40.8 4.15 -0.45

Moong 9.98 0.88 8.8 1.23 -0.36

Lathyrus 3.62 2.98 82.4 2.67 0.31

Others 4.44 2.93 66.0 3.85 -0.91

Total Pulses 146.67 129.74 88.5 129.28 0.46

Total Foodgrains 548.29 424.76 77.5 431.50 -6.74

Rapeseed & Mustard 61.55 81.66 132.7 65.97 15.69

Groundnut 7.05 3.00 42.5 2.58 0.42

Safflower 0.90 0.62 68.8 0.46 0.17

Sunflower 1.86 0.86 46.2 0.63 0.23

Linseed 2.53 1.92 75.9 2.08 -0.16

Total Oilseeds (Nine) 73.91 88.50 119.7 72.13 16.37

All Crops 622.20 513.25 82.5 503.63 9.63

Source: AS Division, DES

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VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 10

^th

December, 2021

Table 8.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes)

State Progressive Procurement as on

10.1 2.2021 In Marketing season

2021-2022

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Andhra Pradesh 1.26 3.12

Telangana 21.64 17.43

Bihar 1.37 0.41

Chhattisgarh 6.11 8.27

Gujarat 0.23 0.17

Haryana 37.05 37.60

Kerala 0.95 0.99

Madhya Pradesh 1.25 3.98

Maharashtra 0.69 0.59

Odisha 0.87 4.26

Punjab 125.19 135.86

Tamil Nadu 4.33 3.55

Uttar Pradesh 14.18 20.32

Uttarakhand 7.74 6.47

West Bengal

All-India 223.49 243.42

Source: Food &PD

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Annex-III/ P.I

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 09 Dec – 15 Dec, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL FWS SCT DRY DRY DRY DRY

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCT ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

7 ODISHA SCT ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

8 JHARKHAND DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

9 BIHAR DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

12 UTTARAKHAND DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

14 PUNJAB DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

16 JAMMU & KASHMIRANDLADAKH ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL DRY

17 WEST RAJASTHAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

18 EAST RAJASTHAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

21 GUJARAT REGION DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

25 MARATHAWADA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

26 VIDARBHA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

27 CHHATTISGARH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY

30 RAYALASEEMA SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL FWS^● ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL DRY DRY

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL DRY

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY ISOL ISOL SCT

35 KERALA & MAHE SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT

36 LAKSHADWEEP DRY SCT SCT SCT SCT DRY DRY

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 10 December – 14 December 2021:

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