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VANAKALAM (KHARIF) 2022-23 PRE-SOWING PRICE FORECAST OF RAGI Ragi Price per Quintal will be around Rs 2350 – 2700 at the Time of Harvesting

(October to November 2022)

Ragi is the most important small millet in the tropics covering 12% of global millet area. It is cultivated in more than 25 countries in Africa (Eastern and Southern) and Asia (from Near East to Far East), predominantly as a staple food grain. The major producers are Africa, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, China, Nepal and Japan besides large area in India.

The specialty of these tiny deep red pearls is the abundance of nutrients present in them.

Finger millet is a rich source of calcium, iron, protein, fiber and other minerals and is a gluten-free food. The cereal has low fat content and contains mainly unsaturated fat. It is easy to digest for people who are sensitive to gluten. It is considered as one of the most nutritious cereals.

In India during vanakalam (kharif) 2021-22 it has covered 10.35 lakh ha (25.57 lakh acres). The major ragi growing states in India are Karnataka 6.39 lakh ha (15.79 lakh acres), Orissa 1.31 lakh ha (3.23 lakh acres), Uttarakand 1.10 lakh ha (2.71 lakh acres), Maharashtra 0.73 lakh ha (1.80 lakh acres), Tamil Nadu 0.48 lakh ha (1.18 lakh acres) and Andhra Pradesh 0.22 lakh ha (0.54 lakh acres). According to the 3rd advance estimates for 2021-22, all India ragi production estimate is 16.4 lakh tonnes as against 20.4 lakh tonnes in 2020-21.

The area covered under ragi in Telangana during vanakalam (kharif) 2021-22 was 642 ha (259.80 acres). The major growing districts of ragi crop in Telangana are Mahabubnagar 110.07 ha (272 acres), Vikarabad 39.65 ha (98 acres), Wanaparthy 6.07 ha (15 acres), Rangareddy 26.30 ha (65 acres), Nagarkurnool 16.18 ha (40 acres) and Narayanapet 13.35 ha (33 acres). In 2021-22 as per the Telangana 2nd advance estimates ragi production is at 0.02 lakh tonnes.

The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre established under a research project for development of price forecasting mechanism in the Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad at Professor Jayashankar Telangana State Agricultural University with the financial support of Agricultural Marketing Department, Telangana State has assessed 2022-23 vanakalam (kharif) pre-sowing price forecast of ragi.

Under expected normal rainfall and crop area coverage, it is estimated that the ragi price per quintal will be around Rs.2350 - 2700 at the time of harvesting (Oct to Nov 2022). This price forecast is based on the monthly modal price of ragi obtained for 20 years from Mahabubnagar regulated market using econometric models like ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA, ARCH, GARCH and also the market survey.

Note: There may be any possible deviation of the actual prices from the predicted prices in light of tentative developments in the commodity markets such as change in international prices, export or import restrictions, etc. And these price forecasts are based on past market price data & different econometric models and that actual market price may not turn out to be the same as forecasted.

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