View of PANDEMIC, GLOBAL WARMING & CLIMATE CHANGE: A GEOGRAPHICAL STUDY

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VOLUME: 10, Special Issue 01, (IC-IESP-MULTI-2023) Paper id-IJIERM-X-I, January 2023 368

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INNOVATION IN ENGINEERING RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT ISSN: 2348-4918 Peer Reviewed and Refereed Journal

PANDEMIC, GLOBAL WARMING & CLIMATE CHANGE: A GEOGRAPHICAL STUDY Dr. J. L. Barmaiya¹, Rohit Agnihotri²

1Principal, (Department of Geography), Govt. Madhav Arts and Commerce College, Ujjain.

2Research Scholar (UGC NET JRF), Department of Geography, Govt. Madhav Arts and Commerce College, Ujjain, M.P.

Abstract - This study is a comprehensive & analytical study about the global warming, climate change and Pandemic. The Milankovitch cycle suggest that we are in the warming period coming out form Pleistocene Ice Age, so we worry about the warming but the rate of warming is our main concern. This present global warming is a combine effect of natural warming and man-induced warming& the rate of warming in comparison to the natural warming is much higher. This boosted rate of warming provides a favourable condition (temperature, precipitation, humidity &wind speed) for the emergence of various viruses, and changed a global scenario of virus origin. This study compares continent wise virus origin data, & discusses the tropical and temperate region wise changing human virus susceptibility, due to global warming and climate change.

Keywords - Global Warming, Climate Change, Milankovitch Cycle, Pleistocene Ice Age, Pandemic, Interglacial period.

1 INTRODUCTION

The little human history faced a several virus & pandemic attack. Earth is currently in an interglacial period (a period of milder climate between Ice Ages). Milankovitch cycles include the shape of Earth’s orbit (its eccentricity), the angle that Earth’s axis is tilted with respect to Earth’s orbital plane (its obliquity), and the direction that Earth’s spin axis is pointed (its precession). These cycles affect the amount of sunlight and therefore, energy, that Earth absorbs from the Sun. They provide a strong framework for understanding long- term changes in Earth’s climate, including the beginning and end of Ice Ages throughout Earth’s history. But Milankovitch cycles can’t explain all climate change that’s occurred over the past 2.5 million years or so. And more importantly, they cannot account for the current period of rapid warming Earth has experienced since the pre-Industrial period (the period between 1850 and 1900), and particularly since the mid-20^th century. Scientists are confident Earth’s recent warming is primarily due to human activities, specifically, the direct input of carbon dioxide into Earth’s atmosphere from burning fossil fuel¹ [NASA, Alan Buis].Thus the present Climate Change and Global Warming is a combine effect of natural warming and it boosted by the human activities. So, this warming is mainly human- induced warming.

The emergence of the Pandemic and their subsequent spread has caused an extremely significant impact on global health and economies. This boosted rate of warming due to global warming provides a favourable condition² (temperature, precipitation, humidity & wind speed) for the emergence of various viruses. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temperature trends and spatial patterns of Emerging Infectious Diseases.

1.1 Objective

1. To explain the global pattern of human virus origin, 2. To analyse the continental pattern of human virus origin,

3. To analyse & find out correlation between the global warming and emerging infactious disease (EID).

2 DATA & METHODOLOGY

This study utilize secondary data from various source such as newspapers (The Hindu, Dainik Jagran,), article posted on internet by the various scholar and teachers, various websites articles. World Health Organization report on pandemic and COVID 19, and Health Ministry reports on COVID 19.This study examines the relationship between the spatial

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pattern of the different categories of EID(extracted from artical²)events (zoonotic pathogens originating in wildlife and non-wildlife, drug-resistant and vector-borne pathogens, Supplementary) and decadal globalmean temperaturedata from National Climate Data Centre (ncdc) website.

3 RESULT & DISCUSSION

A. Patterns in human virus diversity& Global Scenario.

a) A pie chart showing the continent where human virus species were first reported(n ¼ 215, with four species not assigned to a continent).

From- Human viruses: discovery and emergence, 2012⁴.

b) Global richness map of the geographic origins of EID events from 1940 to 2004.

From- Global trends in emerging infectious diseases, 2008².

This both pie charts and diagram shows that the temperate region is more susceptible and vulnerable to virus attack.

B) Annual and Decadal global mean temperature and EID Events per decade.

In this below diagram we examine the relationship between the spatial pattern of the different categories of Emerging Infectious Diseases events (zoonotic pathogens originating in wildlife and non-wildlife, drug-resistant and vector-borne pathogens, Supplementary) and decadal pattern of temperature.

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From - Number of Emerging Infectious Diseases events per decade². EID events (defined as the temporal origin of an EID, represented by the originalcase or cluster of cases that represents a disease emerging in the human population) are plotted with respect to- a) pathogen type, b) transmission type, c) drug resistance and d) transmission mode².

C) The Recent Global Pandemic COVID-19

The SARS-CoV-2 which caused the COVID-19 pandemic originated in China, but interestingly, the neighbouring countries with relatively high environmental temperature (Taiwan, Thailand, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh) were relatively less affected than the neighbouring countries with low environmental temperature (South Korea, Iran, and Japan). Understanding the stability and transmissibility of viruses in different environmental temperature conditions is critical to recognize the transmission dynamics of a novel infectious agent including SARS- CoV-2 which caused the COVID-19 pandemic.SARS-CoV-2 may retain its infectivity up to 2 weeks at low temperatures and low humidity environment. This indicates that SARS CoV-2 may be a stable virus transmittable by indirect contact. Thus, contaminated surfaces may play a significant role in the transmission of infection in the hospital and the community. These contaminated surfaces affects by the Climatic condition⁵.

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4 CONCLUSION

The over 60 percent of species were first discovered in North America & Europe². The temperate region is most vulnerable to the human virus species first reported. On the basis of the pie diagram the temperate region consist of North America, Europe Australia, & some parts of Asia, Africa and South America, So temperate region are the main region of where the virus species originated.

This study demonstrated a significant correlation between global environmental temperature and spatial pattern of the different categories of Emerging Infectious Diseases events (zoonotic pathogens originating in wildlife and non-wildlife, drug-resistant and vector-borne pathogens, Supplementary)². This correlated study shows positive correlation in the rise of global mean temperature & the Emerging Infectious Diseases events. The Temperate region is favourable climate of human virus origin & due to the rise of global mean temperature this region spread northward, & further boosts the origin of viruses.

In the recent COVID-19 Pandemic, Asian countries with relatively lower environmental temperature (e.g. South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, and Iran) had more severe outbreaks than warmer countries (e.g. Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Thailand). In the further spread of COVID-19 also, other countries with low environmental temperature were severely affected in Europe (including Luxembourg, Italy, Spain, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the UK).

In the temperate region, temperature along with other environmental factors including humidity and ultraviolet radiation are also affected that further impacts on the human immune system, may become slightly impaired in cold weather as both vitamin D and melatonin are depleted due to shorter daylight⁵.

REFERENCE

1. Alan Buis, Why Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles Can't Explain Earth's Current Warming, 2020, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

2. Kate E. Jones, Nikkita G. Patel, et al, Global trends in emerging infectious diseases, 2008,Nature Publishing Group,DOI:10.1038/nature06536.

3. Khare Vijay, Politics of Climate Change & Global Peace & Security, 2021, Pentagon Press LLP.

4. Mark Woolhouse, et al, Human viruses: discovery and emergence, 2012, DOI:10.1098/rstb.2011.0354.

5. Mohammad M. Hassan, et al, Role of Environmental Temperature on the Attack rate and Case fatality rate of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic, 2020, DOI: 10.1080/20008686.2020.1792620.

6. Romm Joseph, Climate Change, What everyone needs to know, 2nd Edition, 2018, Oxford University Press.