F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS’ WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS’ WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi
Dated: 09.11.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 06.11.2020.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 29 October 2020 to 04 November 2020, has been 65%
lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 33% in East & North East India, - Lower by 97% in Central India,
- Lower by 79% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 62% in North West India
Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 October 2020 to 04 November 2020, has been 1% lower than LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 37% in Central India, - Lower by 91% in North West India - Lower by 3% in East & North East India - Lower by 1% in South Peninsula
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 12 MET sub-divisions constituting 31% of total area - Normal in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 13% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 16 MET sub-divisions constituting 50% of total area and - No rain in 03 MET sub-divisions constituting 6% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 05 November 2020 was 145.66 BCM, which is:
- 95% of last year’s storage on the same day (05 November 2019) of 153.79 BCM.
- 118% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 123.82 BCM
Rabi sowing has just started and till 06.11.2020, 100.93 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 84.97 lakh ha during 2019-20 during the same period.
All-India progressive procurement
As on 06 November 2020, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 158.36 lakh MT compared to 132.39 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.
POST-MONSOON STATUS: Monsoon Season (October - December) during the week ending 04 November, 2020
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (29 October 2020 to 04 November 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 05 met sub-divisions, large deficient in 17 sub-divisions and no rain in 14 sub- divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 October 2020 to 04 November 2020): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 12 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 16 sub-divisions and no rain in 03 sub-divisions. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (04.11.2020) Cumulative (01.10.20 to 04.11.2020) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 0.8 2.2 -62 LD 2.2 24.5 -91 LD
Central 0.1 4.3 -97 LD 77.0 56.1 37 E
South Peninsula 6.4 30.4 -79 LD 170.5 172.4 -1 N
East & North-East 11.3 8.5 33 E 128.9 132.7 -3 N
Country as a whole 3.4 9.5 -65 LD 80.7 81.5 -1 N
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 October to 04 November 2020
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 October to
04 NOV 2015
02 NOV 2016
01 NOV 2017
07 NOV 2018
06 NOV 2019
04 NOV 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 02 08 10
- 07 07 14
03 09 08 20
01 00 05 06
16 02 10 28
06 06 05 17 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
05 - 21 00 26
10 - 12 00 22
05 07 - 04 16
08 22 - 00 30
07 01 - 00 08
10 06 - 03 19
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 43% (-) 34% 0% (-) 51% 38% (-) 1%
Source: IMD
1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks Week-1: 05 - 11 November, 2020
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Kerala & Mahe; isolated to scattered rainfall over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 4 days.
Isolated heavy rainfall with moderate thunderstorm & lightning over Tamil Nadu during 06th - 08th November,2020.
Rainfall activity very likely to increase over Andaman & Nicobar Islands from 8th November, 2020 with possibility of isolated Heavy rainfall over Andaman Islands on 8th &
9th November, 2020
Cumulatively, below normal rainfall likely over south Peninsula, East & northeast India and Western Himalayan Region; Dry weather very likely over remaining parts of the country.
(Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 05 - 11 November, 2020 is given in Annex-III).
Week-2: 12 – 19 November, 2020
Slight increase in rainfall activity likely over extreme south Peninsular India. However rainfall activity likely to be below normal over remaining parts of south Peninsula and over East & northeast India; and near normal over Western Himalayan Region. Dry weather very likely over remaining parts of the country
Temperature
During week 1 & 2: (05 to 19 November, 2020)
Minimum temperatures are very likely to be below 12°C over most parts of northwest and some parts of adjoining central India during next 2 weeks.
However, these are very likely to be below normal by 2 to 4°C over most parts of the country except Jammu & Kashmir, where these are very likely to be near normal or above normal during next 2 weeks.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 05 November 2020)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 BCM, which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 145.66 BCM from the previous week’s level of 147.71 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 153.79 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 123.82 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 117 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage and 06 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 85 95 118
Last Week 86 96 117
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 90% on 05.11.2019, 67% on 05.11.2018, 68% on 05.11.2017 and 70% on 05.11.2016.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 31.10.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124
Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during Oct. 2020 3554 1555 337 1125 566
Cumulative Receipt upto 31.10.2020 3736 1116 352 1087 520
Cumulative Availability upto 31.10.2020 3967 1568 609 1517 644
Cumulative Sales upto 31.10.2020 3508 1118 323 975 527
Closing Stock as on 31.10.2020 459 450 286 542 117
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
However Leaf webber and Giant African snail reported at moderate intensity in 220 hectare area on Mulberry crop in Ramanagara district of Karnataka.
Pink boll worm reported at above ETL in 440 hectare area on Cotton crop in Chandrapur and Yavatmal districts of Maharashtra. Brown plant hopper reported at above ETL in 720 hectare area on Rice crop in Chandrapur district of Maharashtra.
V. Seeds Position:
Seed position is monitored regularly by Seed Division, DAC&FW through Video Conferencing. Total availability of certified/quality seed is 329.96 lakh quintals against the requirement of 292.63 lakh quintals for Rabi 2020-21 in the country. There is a surplus of 37.33 lakh quintals seeds.
VI. Mandi Arrivals and Price comparison with MSP (on 04 November 2020)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Moong, Groundnut, Safflower, Sunflower and Cotton.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Paddy, Barley, Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum Soyabean, and Jute.
MANDI FUNCTIONING & MANDI ARRIVALS
Wholesale mandis including Grain mandis and Fruits & Vegetable Mandis of the country have returned mostly to normalcy.
Import target of 2 lakh tones on Onion import has been decided and tender has already been floated for 15000 tones. In private sector 7000 metric tones Onion has been purchased and another 25000 tones of onion purchase is expected in next 15 days.
Import may be increased due to delayed harvest of Potato in the month of November.
Though sufficient stock for Potato is available for a month and further Early crops from Uttar Pradesh and Punjab can supplement for the next two months, a crunch in stock can be arise from 15th of January to 15th February, before arrival of new crops.
VII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2020-21) as 06-11-2020
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Rabi
Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2020
% of Normal for
whole season
Last Year 2019
Wheat 303.28 16.94 5.6 9.72 7.22
Rice 41.78 5.87 14.1 5.79 0.08
Jowar 33.40 6.51 19.5 9.36 -2.85
Maize 17.37 1.48 8.5 1.62 -0.14
Barley 6.38 0.61 9.6 0.44 0.17
Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 8.85 15.5 11.65 -2.80
Total Cereals 402.20 31.66 7.9 27.16 4.50
Gram 92.77 25.10 27.1 17.48 7.62
Lentil 14.24 3.70 26.0 1.96 1.74
Peas 8.74 2.86 32.7 1.42 1.44
Kulthi(Horse ram) 2.14 1.59 74.4 1.45 0.14
Urad 8.93 0.92 10.3 0.93 -0.01
Moong 9.86 0.11 1.1 0.20 -0.09
Lathyrus 3.98 1.24 31.1 0.52 0.72
Others 4.23 0.91 21.5 0.83 0.08
Total Pulses 144.88 36.43 25.1 24.79 11.64
Total Foodgrains 547.07 68.09 12.4 51.95 16.14
Rapeseed & Mustard 59.44 31.15 52.4 31.17 -0.02
Groundnut 7.24 0.66 9.1 0.71 -0.05
Safflower 1.15 0.05 4.2 0.10 -0.06
Sunflower 2.37 0.24 10.1 0.44 -0.20
Linseed 2.74 0.66 23.9 0.33 0.33
Total Oilseeds 72.94 32.83 45.0 33.01 -0.18
All- Crops 620.01 100.93 16.3 84.97 15.96
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 06
thNovember, 2020
Table 8.1: Rice
(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21 (October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on 06.11.2020
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 40.00 - -
Telangana 50.00 0.74 0.00
Bihar 18.00 - -
Chhattisgarh 60.00 - -
Haryana 44.00 34.72 41.19
Kerala 3.25 0.05 0.14
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 - -
Maharashtra 12.00 - -
Odisha 37.00 - -
Punjab 113.00 111.87 87.74
Tamil Nadu 17.00 2.92 0.24
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 4.42 1.68
Uttarakhand 6.70 3.36 1.27
West Bengal 23.80 - -
All-India 497.10 158.36 132.39
Annexe-III/p-1 Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 05 - 11 November, 2020 for 36 Met Sub- Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 05 NOV 06 NOV 07 NOV 08 NOV 09 NOV 10 NOV 11 NOV
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT● SCT● SCT● ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOLTS ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOLTS ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA ISOLTS ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
7 ODISHA ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
8 JHARKHAND DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
9 BIHAR DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
12 UTTARAKHAND DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
14 PUNJAB DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
16 JAMMU & K. AND LADAKH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
17 WEST RAJASTSAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
18 EAST RAJASTSAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
23 KONKAN & GOA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
25 MARATHAWADA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
26 VIDARBHA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
27 CHHATTISGARH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOLTS ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL FWS●●TS FWS●TS FWS●TS SCT●TS ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA SCTTS ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA SCTTS ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY
35 KERALA & MAHE FWS●TS SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS ISOL ISOL ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCTTS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL #HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/THUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 06 - 10 November 2020:
