بررسی توان اشتغال‌زایی بخش ساختمان در ایران

ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ

ﺍﺯ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻳ

ﻩﺩﺍﺯﺭﺎﺠﻧ ﺎﺿﺭ ∗

ﻦﻴﺴﺣ ﺪﻴﺠﻣ

∗ﺭﻮﭘ ∗

ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

۱۸ / ۸ / ۸۳ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

۱۴ / ۴ / ۸۴

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ

ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻳﺍﺯ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻌﺳ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ

ﺍﺯ ﻲﻳ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ

ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ

ﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺎ

. ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻪـﺑ

ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ

ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ,

ﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻩ

۸۲

‐ ١٣٥٣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ .

ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ

ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪـﻣ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ

ARDL) ( ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪ

ﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳ

ﻪ

ﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﺘﺒﺜﻣ ﻩ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ .

ﺢﻴﺤﺼـﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ

ﻱﺎﻄﺧ

ECM) ( ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ

ﺕﺪـﻣ ﻥﺎﺸـﻧ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ۴۹

ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ

ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺩ ﻱﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨـﺳ ﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ

, ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ

ﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺎﺗ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪ

ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺶﻴﭘ

ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .

ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ

ﺶﻴﭘ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ

ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﻻﺎﺑ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻥ ﻢﻬﺳ

ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ

ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ

ﺶﻴﭘ ﻞﻛ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ

ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ

ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ

.

ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL

,C2

,C22

,L1

.L13

ﻩﮊﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ :

ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ،ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ،ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ،ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ .

________________________________

________________________________

__

ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ∗ ﺖﻴﺑﺮﺗ ﺱﺭﺪﻣ .

∗

∗ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻴﻟ ﺱﺭﺪﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﺮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ، ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺲﻧﺎﺴ .

١

‐ ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ

ﻢﺸﭼ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻪـﺿﺮﻋ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ

ﻪﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺗ ﻪﻏﺪﻏﺩ ﻦﻳ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺰﮕﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻞﻳﺪـﺒﺗ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺰـﻳﺭ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﺑﻭﺭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺪﻋﺎﺼﺗ ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻮﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻭﺭ

ﺶﻴﭘ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻮﺳ

ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ , ﺍﺭ ﻲـﻤﻴﻈﻋ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺏﺬﺟ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻧ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺨ .

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻲﻤﻛ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﻖﺒﻃ

ﺖﺴﻳﺎﺑ ۳۸۲۵ ﻞﻐـﺷ ﺭﺍﺰـﻫ

ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻃ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ۲۹۰۰

ﺭﺍﺰـﻫ

ﻞﻐﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ١

ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸـﻛ ﻝﺎـﻌﻓ ﺖـﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻲـﻧﻭﺰﻓ

) ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ (

ﻲﻤﻗﺭ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺪﻫﺎﺷ ، ۳

/ ۱۲ ﺩ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭ

۱۳۸۳ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ

ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ١

/ ٩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ ١٣٧٥

ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﻲﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣﺎﻧ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ

ﺪﻫﺩ .

ﻞﺻﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ٤٣

ﺝ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ .ﺍ

. ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ

ﺭﺎـﻛ ﺕﺎـﻧﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ

ﻪﻤﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ

ﻪـﻤﻫ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻞﻳﺎﺳﻭ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻭ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ

ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻛ ﻪﺑ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﻮﺘﺳﺍ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻞﻳﺎﺳﻭ ﻲﻟﻭ ﺪﻧ .

ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ

ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺙﺍﺪـﺣﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻩﻭﻼـﻋ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻪﺑ

ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻞﺻﺍ

٣١ ﻲـﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻗ

ﺝ . ١ . ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻩﺍﺭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺙﺍﺪﺣﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺪﺑ٢

ﻭﺮﻓ ،ﺭﺩﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺎﻫ ﻩﺎـﮔﺩ

ﺎـﻫ

ﻭ ...

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻱﻮﻗ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺖـﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﺎـﻳ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ

ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺮﺴﺗ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

. ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ ﺖـﻣﺎﺧﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮕﺸـﻴﭘ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺍﺬـﻟ

ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣﺎﻧ ﺎﻨﮕﻨﺗ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺩﻮﺒﻤﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮﻠﺟ ﻭ

ﻱﺎﻫ

،ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﮔﺁ

ﻞﻴﺴﻧﺎﺘﭘ ﻭ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺭ

ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﺸـﻛ ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ

ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻴﻘﻓﻮﻣ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻭ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ

ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺰـﻳﺭ ﻪـﺑ

ﺭﺎﻤـﺷ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻭﺭ . ﻪﺑ ﻠﻏ ﻪﻣﺯﻻ ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺒ

ﻪﻧﺎﻫﺎﮔﺁ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃﺯﺍ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺎﻫ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻞﻴﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ

.

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١

‐ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ١٣٨٣

ﺮﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﻈﻧ ﻭ ﻪـﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪـﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎـﺳ ،ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻡﻮﺳ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ

ﺭﻮﺸـﻛ ﻱﺰـﻳﺭ

١٣٨٤ ﺹ ،ﻝﻭﺍ ﺝ ، ١٩٢

.

٢

‐ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻖﺣ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺎﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻞﺻﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﺩ

.

ﻘﻣ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻪﻟﺎ

ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻳ

ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .

ﻭ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ

ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ .

ﭙـﺳ ﺲ ﺮـﺑ ﺮﺛﺆـﻣ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺎـﺑ

ﻘﺗ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻛ

ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ

ﺎـﺑ ﺶﻴـﭘ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ

ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﻌﺳ ﻲﺗﺁ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺯﺍ

ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻲﻳ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .

٢

‐ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ

ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻤﻛ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﻭﺪﺗ

ﺪـﻨﻛ ﻪـﺿﺮﻋ ﻲﺿﺎﻳﺭ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﺻﻮﺼﺧ .

ﻪـﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ

 ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ

ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ

، ﻥﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪـﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻪﻛ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺷﻭﺭ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮﺷ .

ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ(C)

ﻪﺑ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺿﻭﺮﻔﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ(Q)

ﻡﺯﻻ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺳﺩ ﻞﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺩﻮﺸﺑ F.O.C

ﻲﻣ ١

ﺍﺭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪـﺑ

ﺖـﺳﺩ

ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ) ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻧx

ﻭ ﻩﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ r (

:

) ١ (

[

f x x x Q

]

x r L

x x x f Q t

s x x x f Q t

s

x r C

Min

n n

i i i

n n

n i

i i

−

−

=

=

=

=

∑

∑

=

=

) ,.

..

, , (

) ,.

..

, , ( .

) ,.

..

, , ( .

2 1 1

2 1 2

1 1

λ

________________________________

________________________________

__

1- First Order Condition (F.O.C).

⎪⎪

⎪⎪

⎪

⎩

⎪⎪

⎪⎪

⎪

⎨

⎧

=

− λ =

∂

∂

= λ

−

∂ =

∂

= λ

−

∂ =

∂

0 Q ) x , . . . , x , x ( L f

0 f x r

L

0 f x r

L

n 2

1 n n n

1 1

ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻩﺎﮕﺘﺳﺩ ﻞﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ

ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ .

) Q , r ,.

..

, r ( x x .

) Q , r ,.

..

, r ( x x

n 1 n n

n 1 1 1

∗

∗

∗

∗

=

= M

ﺮﻳﺩﺎــﻘﻣ ﺮــﮔﺍ ﻝﺎــﺣ

∗i

ﻪــﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪــﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎــﻫx

) ١ ( ﻫ ﻊﺑﺎــﺗ ،ﻢﻴــﻫﺩ ﺭﺍﺮــﻗ ﻪــﻨﻳﺰ

ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ :

) ۲

∑

(

=

=

= ⁿ

1

i i i 1 n

n

1,...,r ,Q) r x (r ,. ..,r ,Q) r

( C C

ﻕﻮﻓ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﻩﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ

ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺎـﻫ

ﻲـﻣ ﻢﻫﺍﺮـﻓ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻠﻣﺎﻛ ﻒﻴﺻﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﻭ ﺪـﻨﻛ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺹﺍﻮﺧ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ :

‐ ﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ .

‐ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ .

‐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻌﻘﻣ .

‐ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ،ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﻖﺘﺸﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺁ

ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ .١

ﺩﺭﺎﻔﺷ ﻢﻟ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺍ ﻲﻣ ٢

ﺍﻮﺗ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻥ

________________________________

________________________________

__

١

‐ ، ﻲﻠﻌﻣﻼﻏ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺟﺮﻓ “

ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ، ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ “

ﻭ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ، ،ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ

ﺩﺍﺩﺮـﺧ ،ﻡﻮـﺳ ﺪﻠﺟ ١٣٧٨

،

ﺹ ٢٧٩ 2- Shephard’s Lemma.

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺎﻫ

:

) ۳

∑

^∂ _∂ ( +

∂ =

∂

i n i i

n i

i r

Q r r r x Q

r r r x

C ( ,..,. , )

) , ,.

..

,

(₁ ¹

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ )

۳ ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ

١. ﺮـﻫ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺎﻫ

ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ

ﺪﻣﺁ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖﺳﺩ :

) ۴

) (

Q , r , ..

. , r ( x

x_i^d = _{i 1 n}

ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺎﺑ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎـﺳ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺺﻗﺎﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ

٢. ﺍﺬـﻟ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮـﮔﺍ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ

ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻞﻛ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ :

) ۵ ) (

Q , Pco , Kp , w ( C C =

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ w

) ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ

( Kp ، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ

ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺢﻟﺎﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ Pco ﻪﺑ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ Q

ﺰـﻴﻧ

ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ

،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ،ﺩﺭﺎﻔـﺷ ﻢـﻟ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

:

) ۶

) (

Q , Pco , Kp , w ( L L^d=

ﻪﻣﺯﻻ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻦﻜﻴﻟ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ

ﺮﻈﻧ ﻖﺑﺎـﻄﺗ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ،ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪـﻳ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻚـﻳ ﺮـﻫ ﺎـﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮـﻣ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺍﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ .

ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺬﻟ

________________________________

________________________________

__

١

‐ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩﺎﻳ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺏﺍﻮﺟ ﻢﻳﺮﺒﺑ ﺭﺎﻜﺑ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻟﻭﺍ ﻪﻴﻀﻗ ﺮﮔﺍ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ـﺑ ﺮـﻟﻭﺍ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﻫ

ﻪ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ :

) , , ..

. , ( ) , , . . . , (

1 1 1

1 1 1 1

...

. nX r r Q

r r X

r X

Q r r X X

n n

n i

n

∂ =

∂

∂

∂

=

+ +

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻄﻧﺎﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻨﮕﻤﻫ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ n .

2- Jozef Konings & Hartmat Lehmann.

ﻱﺮﻴﺧﺄـﺗ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺖﺸـﮔﺯﺎﺑﺩﻮﺧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻦﺘﺴـﺟ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ (ARDL)

ﺎـﺑ ١

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪ ١٣٨۲

ـ ١٣٥٣ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ

ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ

ﺍﺯ ﺶﻴﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻳ

ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ

.

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻧﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚـﻳ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ

ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻦﻴﻣﺄـﺗ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻴـﻟ ﻞﻜﺸـﻣ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻜ ﺕﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻆـﻔﺣ

ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺍﺭ

ـﺧ ﺍﻮ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫ .

ﻪـﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻃﺎـﺧ ﻦﻴـﻤﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﻲﻌﻤﺠﻤﻫ ﻢﻫ ﺎﻳ ﻮﻴﻳﺍﺮﮕﻤﻫ ﺎﻳ١

ﻲﻣ ﻚﻤﻛ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ

ﻳﺮﻴﮔ ﻢ ﻲﻧﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﺘﺑ ﺎﺗ ﻥﻭﺪـﺑ

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺏﺫﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺱﺍﺮﻫ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ .

ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ

ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳﺍﺮﮕﻤﻫ ،ﻲ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﻮـﻧ ﻂ

ﺮـﺠﻧﺮﮔ ﻭ ﻞـﮕﻧﺍ ،ﺮـﺠﻧﺮﮔ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻦﻴـﺷﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﺴﭘ ﻭ ﺱﻮﻴﻠﻴﺳﻮﺟ ﻭ ﻦﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﺟ ،ﻦﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﺟ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺪﺷ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺎـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎـﻳﻮﭘ ﺪـﻴﻛﺄﺗ

ﺯﺍ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻂـﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻚـﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺮـﺑ

ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ

.

ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻞﮕﻧﺍ

‐ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺮﺠﻧﺮﮔ ﺘﻣ ﺪﻨﭼ VAR

ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻦﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﺟ ﻩﺮﻴﻐ

ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺐﻳﺎﻌﻣ

ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ . ﻪﺑ ﻞﮕﻧﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻮﻃ

‐ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺮﺠﻧﺮﮔ

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ،ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﺎﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ

ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺮـﺑ VAR

ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ

،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻪـﺑ

ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺖﻳﺎﻋﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺍﺯﺁ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺩ .

ﻪﺑ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ

ﺮﻃﺎﺧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺕﻼﻜﺸﻣ ﻭ ﺐﻳﺎﻌﻣ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ

ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ

ﻱﺮﻴﺧﺄـﺗ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺖﺸﮔﺯﺎﺑﺩﻮﺧ (ARDL)

ﻦﻴـﺷﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﺴـﭘ )

١٩٩٩

٣( ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ .

ﻑﻼـﺧ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﺖﻳﺰﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱ ﻥﻭﺪـﺑ ،ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ

ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺎﭘ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻛ ﺭﺎ ﻲـﻣ ،ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺮـﺑ ﺖﺒﺴـﻧ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﻪﺑ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺝﺎﺘﻨﺘﺳﺍ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ .

ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺲﻜﻋﺮـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺮـﺑ ﻩﻭﻼـﻋ VAR

________________________________

________________________________

__

1- Auto-Regressive Distributed lag (ARDL).

2- Co-integration.

3- Pesaran & shin (1999).

ﺮــﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺩﺍﺪــﻌﺗ ﺖــﺳﺍ ﻦــﻜﻤﻣ ﻱﺎــﻫ

ﺪــﺷﺎﺑ ﺩﺎــﻳﺯ ﻝﺪــﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺖﺧﺎﻨــﺷ ﺖــﻬﺟ ﺍﺬــﻟ ١

) q ,.

..

, q , q , p (

ARDL _{1 2 n}

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺮﻴﺴﻔﺗ ﻢﻳﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ

:

) ٧ (

iq q 2 2

i 1 i i i i

p p 2 2

1

t t t

i i k

1 i

i t

L ..

. L L

) q , L (

L ..

. L L

1 ) p , L (

u w x

) q , L ( y

) p , L (

o −β −β − −β

β

= β

φ

−

− φ

− φ

−

= φ

+ δ′

+ β

=

φ

∑

=

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻭ ﺮﮕﻠﻤﻋ L

،ﻪﻔﻗ Wt

ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼـﺗﺮﻴﻏ )

ﻲـﻌﻄﻗ ( ﺮـﻴﻈﻧ

ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﻭ

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ y .

ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ

ﻭ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ xi

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ .

ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ARDL

) ۷ ( ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ

m , ..

. , 1 , 0 p = ﻭ

m , ..

. , 1 , 0 q_i =

ﻪﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ OLS ﻪﺑ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ

1

)k

1 m

( + ⁺

ﺭﺎـﺑ

ﻩﺩﺯ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ

(m)ﺎﻫ ﺗ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻖـﻘﺤﻣ ﻂـﺳﻮ ﻲـﻣ

ﺩﻮـﺷ .

ﻡﻭﺩ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻪﺑ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻖﻘﺤﻣ ﻲـﻣ

ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﺗ

1

)k

1 m

( + ⁺

ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻪـﺑ

ﻄﺑﺎـﺿ ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ ﻪ

ﻛﺁ ـﻴﻳﺎ (AIC)ﻚ ، ﺯﺭﺍﻮـﺷ

‐

ﺑ ﻦﻳﺰﻴ (SBC) ، ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻦﻴﺋﻮﻛ ـ ﻥﺎﻨﺣ

R2

ﺪﻨﻛ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ

٢. ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪ

ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﺮـﺿﺎﺣ

ﻪﺑ ﻄﺑﺎـﺿ ،ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻢـﻛ ﹰﺎﺘﺒﺴﻧ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻪ

ﻦﻳﺰـﻴﺑ ـ ﺯﺭﺍﻮـﺷ (SBC)

ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻞـﻤﻋ ﻙﻼـﻣ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺎﺿ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﻢﻴﻫﺩ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ ﺪﻨﻛ

.

٣

‐ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

ﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻖﻴﻘﺤ

ﻪﺑ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ

ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ARDL

ﺕﺪـﻣ

ﻲﻣ ﻢﻳﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ . ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺩﺭﺎﻔـﺷ ﻢﻟ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﺪﺷ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻭ

ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ

ﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ .

ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ

________________________________

________________________________

__

1- Sezgin.S & Yildirim.J, (2002).

٢

‐ ﺺﺻ ،ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ ،ﺪﻤﺤﻣ ،ﻲﺘﺳﺮﻓﻮﻧ ٩٦

ـ ٩٥ .

) ۷ ( ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ARDL

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ :

) ۸ (

)

, 0 ( iid

~ u u t Dum Pco

log Kp

log

w log Q

log L

log L

log

t 2 t q

j

q

j 4j t j

j j t

3

q

j 2j t j

q

j 1j t j

p 1 j

dt j d i

3 4

2 1

o o

o o

o

σ +

δ′

+ δ + β

+ β

+ β

+ β

+ α

+ α

=

∑ ∑

∑

∑

∑

= − = −

= −

= −

= −

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺑ

ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ(w)

ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ

ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ

ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ

ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﻦﻜﺴـﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ (Kp)

ﻪﺑ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﺟ .

ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ

ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺢﻟﺎﺼﻣ ﻲﺷﻭﺮﻓ (Pco)

ﻪﺑ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ

ﻦﻴﺸـﻧﺎﺟ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ

ﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮ

.

ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ

ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ،ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻢﻛ ﹰﺎﺘﺒﺴﻧ ﻢﺠﺣ

‐ ﺭﺎـﻴﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﻴﺑ

ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ

ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ

ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻕﻮﻓ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻪﺑ

ﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻴ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﺰﻤﺘـﺳﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺢﻟﺎﺼـﻣ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ،

ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ

ﻔﻗﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪ

ﻱﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺪﻧ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ .

ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ

ﻡﺮﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ

Microfit ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ :

) ۹

) (

4 3 ( )

4 3 ( )

7 6 ( ) 8 ( : ) (t

log 32 0 log 16 0 1 log

51 0 17 7 log

. .

.

W .

Q .

) ( L .

.

L^{d d}

−

− +

− +

= ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ

95 . 1 98

. 0

55 . 207 20

, 6 99

. 0

) 23 . 1 ( ) 6 . 7 ( )

7 . 2 ( )

8 . 6 (

02 0 06 0 1 log

03 0 32

0

2 2

=

=

=

=

−

−

+ +

−

−

−

D.W R

) ( F R

Dum .

t . ) ( Kp .

LogPco

. (ﻲﻠﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﮓﻨﺟﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ)

ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻃ ،ﺖﺳﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺑ

ﺰﺟ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻛ(Kp)

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺎﺑ

ﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ

ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻠﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﮓﻨﺟ ۶۵

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ

ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪـﻴﻘﺑ ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿ ،

ﺢﻄﺳ ٩٥ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ

ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺭﺍﺩ

2 . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻻﺎﺑ R

ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻞﻘﺘﺴـﻣ

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻲﺑﻮﺧ

ﺪﻨﻫﺩ . ﻲﻫﺍﻮﮔ ،ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻪـﻛ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ

) ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ

ﺭﺎﻛ ( ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﺩﺰﻤﺘـﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻚـﻳ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ

ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻥﺎﻨﻛﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ

ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ۳۲ / ٠ ﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺶﺸـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻨﭼ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ

ﺖﺒﺴـﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻪﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮـﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ،

ﻦﻜﻴـﻟ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻅﺎـﺤﻟ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ ﻱﻮﺤﻧ

ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ۱۶

/ ٠ ﺬـﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﺏ

) ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ (

ﺍﺭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻦﻤﺿ

ﻥﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ

ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻪﺑ

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻜﻴـﻟ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ

ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ .

ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ

ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺎﺳ ﺢﻟﺎﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ

ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﺭﺩ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻚـﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ

ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺢﻟﺎﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ

۳۲ / ٠ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ

ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ

ﺪﺷ . ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ

۵۱ / ٠ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﺖﺤﺗ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺗ

ﺮﻴﺛﺄ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ

. ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ

ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ

ﻲﻨﻓ ﺖﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺰﻴﭼﺎـﻧ ﺭﺎﻴﺴـﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ .

ﻪﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻕﻮـﻓ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻲـﻳﺍﺮﮕﻤﻫ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻪـﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ،ARDL

ﻁﻮﺑﻮﻣ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻪﺑ

ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ

ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ

ﻪـﺑ ﺖﻤـﺳ

ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﮔ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ .

ﻦﻳﺰـﻴﺑ ـ ﺯﺭﺍﻮـﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻖﺒﻃ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ

(SBC) ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺍﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

:

⎪⎩

⎪⎨

⎧

<

− α

≥

− α

0 1 :

H

0 1 :

H

1 1

1

o

ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺖﻴﻤﻛ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ

ﻪﺑ ﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺒ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ :

36 . 077 6

. 0

1 51 . 0 S

1 αˆ t

αˆ1

1− = − = −

=

ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺑ

ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺖﻴﻤﻛ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ

ﺮﺘﺴـﻣ ﻭ ﻭﺩﻻﻭﺩ ،ﻲـﺟﺮﻨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ١

ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ٩٥

ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ٢٧

/ ٣

‐ ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺩﺭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ

ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮔ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ .

ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻪﺑ

ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 5 . 9 ( ) 83 . 4 (

12 0 04

0

) 24 . 1 ( ) 07 . 4 ( ) 79 . 1 ( ) 67 . 2 ( ) 6 . 2 ( : ) (

66 0 log 05 0 log 66 0 log 34 0 8 4 1 log

t . Dum .

t

Pco . Kp .

w .

Q .

. L^d

+ +

−

−

−

−

−

− +

= ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ

ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻪﺑ

ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺰﺟ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﻥﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ٨٥

ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ

ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺢﻄ ۶۵

ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻪﻴﻘﺑ ،

ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ٩٥

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ

ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺭﺍﺩ .

ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻅﺎـﺤﻟ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ

،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻢﺋﻼﻋ ،ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻪـﺑ

ﻪـﻛ ﻱﻮـﺤﻧ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ

ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘـﺳﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺩ

ﺪﻫﺎﺷ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻢﻴﺘﺴﻫ

ﻪﺑ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ

ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ۶۶ / ٠ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ

ﻭ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ

ﺎﺸﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ

ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺢﻟﺎﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ

________________________________

________________________________

__

1- Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. and R. mester.

،ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪـﺑ

ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ۶۶ / ۰ ﻭ ۰۵ / ٠ ـﻛ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎ

ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻪـﺑ

ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ .

ﻚـﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻟﺎـﺣ ﺭﺩ

ﺎـﻳ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪـﺑ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ،ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﺗﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ۳۴

/ ٠

ﺩﻮﺑ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺪﻫﺎﺷ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺪﺻﺭﺩ .

ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮﺷ ﺖﺒﺴـﻧ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺶﺸـﻛ ﻪـﻛ

ﻪﺑ ﺍﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ (W)ﻲﻌﻗ

ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺢﻟﺎﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﺒﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﺢﻟﺎﺼـﻣﻭ

ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ .

ﺶﺸـﻛ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ

ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ

ـﺳ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮ

ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﭼ .

ﹰﻻﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﺖﺴـﻧﺍﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﻴﻟﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﺘﺑ .

ﻪـﺑ ﺩﺎـﻳﺯ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ

ﹰﺎﺘﺒﺴـﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﻚـﻳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ،ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗﻭ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ

ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻳﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻲﺻﻮﺼـﺧ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻦ

ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ

ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ،ﻥﺍﺮﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺩﺰﻣﺯﻭﺭ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ

ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﮔﺩﺎﺳ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺪﻗ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘـﺳﺩ

ﮒﺭﺰـﺑ ،ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ

ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺶﺸـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺗ

ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺪـﻣ

ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﻛ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ

.

ﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ (ECM)

ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ

ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺪﻣ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺕﺪﻣ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ،ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ :

95 . 1 D.W 90

. 0 R

62 . 37 ) 21 , 7 ( F 93

. 0 R

) 6 . 7 ( ) 4 . 3 (

t 06 . 0 Pco log 32 . 0

) 1 . 5 ( )

36 . 13 ( )

8 ( )

2 . 6 ( :

) t (

w log

∆ 32 . 0 Q log

∆ 16 . 0 18 . 7 ) 1 ( ECM 49 . 0 L log

∆

2 2

d

=

=

=

=

− +

−

−

− +

+

−

−

= ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ

ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﺘﻧﺍﺮﭘ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ t ﻪﺑ

ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ ﺀﺎﻨﺜﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ

ﻪـﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﻅﺎـﺤﻟ

ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ

ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﺭﺍﺩ

ﺭﺩ ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿ ﻪـﻴﻘﺑ ،ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻑﺬـﺣ ﻕﻮـﻓ ﺕﺪﻣ

ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ٩٥

ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﹰﻼﻣﺎﻛ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩ .

ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻥﺪﻧﺎﺠﻨﮔ

ﻮﻛ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻩﺎﺗ

ﻥﺁ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻪﺑ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﺎـﺷﺍ ،ﺎـﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼـﺗ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ

ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ۴۹

ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﺖﻤﺳ

ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .

ﻪﺑ ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﹰﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ

۲ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﻪﻟﺎـﺳ ﻲـﻣ

ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻪـﻛ

ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﺖﻋﺮﺳ .

ﻣﺯﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﹰﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺩﺰ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﮔﺭﺎﻛ .

ﻲـﻣ ﻲـﻓﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﺖﺷﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﺤﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑﺩﻭﺯ .

ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ

R2

ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ۹۳ / ٠ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ

ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ

ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﮔﺪﻨﻫﺩ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺪﻣ .

ﺶﺸـﻛ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ

ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻕﻮﻓ ﺕﺪﻣ

ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻚـﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻦﻳﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ،ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ

ﺕﺪﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺮﺑ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓﻼﺑ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ۳۲

/ ٠ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺳﺎﻛ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻪـﻛ

ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ

ﺒﻋ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﺎ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺪﻫﺩ

.

٤

‐ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ )

ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ( ،ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻳ ﻪﺑ

ﺶﻴـﭘ ﻪﺘـﺷﺬﮔ ﺪـﻧﻭﺭ

ﻲـﻨﻴﺑ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﺮـﺑ ﻭ