This working document has been prepared as part of the Modern Russian–Iranian Relations project of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). Initial progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and an imminent relaxation of sanctions against Iran open up new opportunities to deepen and strengthen ties between Russia and Iran. Russia's position has contributed significantly to recent progress in negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.
Russia and Iran cannot help but be alert to the involvement of several Caucasian states in building a bloc system.
Internal Factors in the Development of Russian–Iranian
The Factor of the Iranian Nuclear Problem in Bilateral
A Russian-Iranian tandem of sorts could presumably stabilize the situation in the Caucasus, an area in which both states are equally interested. It is concerned about its increasing vulnerability in the Greater Middle East as coalition forces withdraw from Afghanistan. Rouhani expressed plans to reach an agreement with the P5+1 negotiators on the Iranian nuclear program within three to six months.9 Ayatollah Khamenei endorsed the Iranian president's efforts to resolve the nuclear problem and appointed the team of 'nuclear vendors of criticism by Iranian radicals.10 Some changes may have occurred in the Iranian elite making it more inclined to compromise.
For the first time in ten years of international dialogue on Iran's nuclear issue, there was a glimmer of light.
How International Sanctions Affect Iran
Iran, on the other hand, wants Russia to stick to its firm position that problems with Iran's nuclear program should be solved exclusively by political means, while at the same time recognizing Iran's right to develop peaceful nuclear energy. Exports now stand at about 1 million bpd.24 In 2013, Iran's oil revenues are expected to be limited to only $30-35 billion – the lowest in ten years,25 which will cause a serious budget deficit for the country. In this regard, it is very likely that Ayatollah Khamenei's views on the role and place of Iran in the world community have changed somewhat.
Some believe that the Ayatollah advised President Rouhani and the Minister of Foreign Affairs before their September meetings at the General Assembly in New York and before Rouhani's phone conversation with President Obama,29 and that he approved all of Iran's new steps in solving the problem. the nuclear problem.
The Economic Aspect of Russian–Iranian Relations
The oil, gas and petrochemical industry is the backbone of the Iranian economy and the primary source of its budget. 48 Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation // Integrated Foreign Economic Information Portal: URL: http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/ir/ir_ru_relations/ir_ru_trade (in Russian). Nuclear energy is an area that promises cooperation, and Russia is interested in this segment of the Iranian market.
49 The following information on potential areas of Russian-Iranian trade and economic cooperation is based on materials from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation // Integrated Foreign Economic Information Portal. This is happening amid a general actualization of the geopolitical relevance of two continental powers – Russia and Iran – in the 21st century. Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution and the Iranian economy // Middle East Institute [website].
63 Analytical overview of the current state and development prospects of trade and economic relations between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and Iran // The Russian Ministry of Economic Development. 65 Analytical overview of the current state and development prospects of trade and economic relations between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and Iran // The Russian Ministry of Economic Development. State authority is based on the concept of velayat-e faqih - continuity of the rule of the imams, which is one of the cornerstones of Shi'ism.
66 Analytical overview of the status and prospects of the trade and economic relations of the Russian Federation with Iran. URL: http://www.iimes.ru/?p=5843 (in Russian). . the "righteous faqih") is the holder of the velayat-e (power) and acts as the spiritual leader of the Iranian Shiites. At the same time, he is the political leader of the government and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.70.
It is clear that most of the negative factors affecting the development of Russian business in Iran are objective.
External Factors in the Development of Russian–Iranian
The Influence of the Arab Spring and the Syrian Crisis
External factors in the development of Russian-Iranian relations .. lems in Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia encouraged Russia to take more interest in Iran. Overall, by saving Syria from military intervention, Russia and Iran have become de facto strategic allies in the region. The strategic partnership of the two countries seems natural, but bilateral relations show a deficit of mutual trust, and cooperation is increasingly limited by restrictions related to international sanctions against Iran.
The leaders of the two countries are faced with the choice of either maintaining parallel positions on key issues of international security in the region or form a common long-term platform for comprehensive strategic interaction. In September 2013, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, proposed to President Vladimir Putin more active "consultations between our countries on regional issues, especially in light of the sensitive situation in the Middle East".81
Afghanistan, Pakistan and ‘the 2014 factor’
It must be made clear that a collapse of Pakistan as a state will inevitably result in the 'atomisation' of Al-Qaeda and related groups. It appears that it is beyond the power of the United States to prevent such a downfall. With a total population of 193-195 million people, much of Pakistan's territory is outside the control of the central government.
Neither the authorities nor society have a clear understanding of the strategy and tactics in the war against terror in the country. Non-involvement of the army in the recent parliamentary elections suggests that the military elite lacks ideas, resources and capabilities. Therefore, regional security issues stemming from the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan call for cooperation, both in preventive diplomacy and in the military and technical.
Interaction should be encouraged in the energy sector, and in industrial and transport infrastructure, and cooperative ties should be restored. Iran has grown in importance as an important center of power in Central Asia, and also an increasingly active participant in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where it is represented as an observer nation along with Afghanistan and Pakistan. A possible future accession to the SCO as a full member could promote further rapprochement between Russia and Iran and open new prospects of joint action in solving the Afghan issue.
A number of terrorist organizations active in the North Caucasus have their militants trained in Afghan camps. Prospects for Russian-Iranian cooperation in the Caspian Sea We should also mention the Caspian Sea, where the positions are.
Prospects for Russian–Iranian Cooperation in the Caspian
Apart from bilateral efforts, the situation calls for multilateral cooperation in this vast region involving not only Russia and Iran but also China and India. This is the only way to protect Greater Central Asia from the threat of Islamic radicalism and political terrorism. It would appear that the nations of the region (and not only Russia and Iran) should make multilateral efforts using the following political statement: "Peace through joint development and the strengthening of cooperative ties in various spheres."
If history is anything to go by, close cooperation between Russia and Iran – a nation geographically, religiously, culturally and linguistically close to Afghanistan – appears to be a more reasonable way to resolve sensitive issues. For its part, Iran proposes to divide the sea into national zones under the sovereignty of the respective states, and to ensure freedom of navigation and consistent fishing regulations. Russia opposes the division of the Caspian Sea into national zones, territorial waters and fishing grounds, arguing that the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not apply to the Caspian Sea, which is a unique marine body of water.
Despite their differences, Russia and Iran share a desire to resolve the issue in the best interests of all riparian countries while preserving the energy and biological resources of the Caspian Sea.
China’s Regional Policy as an External Factor
In the medium term, it would be advisable to expand cooperation with Tehran within the framework of the SCO. The nature of the relationship and the scope of the key open questions remain practically unchanged. The current state of the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear program stems from the implementation of a program adopted in the 1970s under the rule of the Shah.
In addition, Iran's leadership expected the development of nuclear power to help raise the country's overall technological level. More precisely, this position was favored by the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mohammed Khatami. Most experts consider August 2005 to be a turning point in the development of the situation surrounding Iran's nuclear program.
Therefore, the victory in the June 2013 presidential election for the 'liberal pragmatist' Rouhani, who announced his intentions to reconsider Iran's nuclear program, seems quite reasonable. Failing to enrich uranium to more than 5 per cent. during the duration of the agreement period. 92 Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Moreover, the final settlement of Iran's nuclear program can only be achieved in the process of lengthy and difficult negotiations. The competition is likely to be unfair, with the governments of the above countries applying political and economic pressure. Iran's relations with the leading Arab states - Saudi Arabia and Qatar - must be viewed through the prism of the Syrian conflict.
At the same time, it is the most powerful proof of the extreme weakness of Tehran's current positions.
