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University of Tehran Press
Determination of Crisis Areas of Precipitation in Iran for Period of 2021-2040 by Climate Change
Saman Javadi1 | Hossein Yousefi2 | Ali Moridi3 | Hossein Khajehpour4 | Touraj Fathi5
1. Corresponding Author, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Iran. E-mail: [email protected]
2. Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran. E-mail: [email protected]
3. Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran. E-mail: [email protected]
4. Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Faculty of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. E-mail: [email protected]
5. Deputy of Soil and Water Conservation and Management, Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran. E-mail:
Article Info ABSTRACT
Article type:
Research Article
Article history:
Received: 7 June 2021 Received in revised form:
26 June 2021
Accepted: 28 September 2021 Published online: 2 July 2023
Keywords:
Iran, GCM, RCP2.6, RCP8.5.
The climate change effect on future precipitation (2040-2021) of Iran is investigated in this study. For this purpose, the results of three general circulation models (GCM) named GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5A-LR were analyzed for two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
CCT model and daily precipitation data of the base period (1986-2019) were used to downscale and bias correction of future daily precipitation data. According to the annual results, the weighted average of annual precipitation of rain gauges due to all scenarios except RCP8.5 in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model was increasing. The weighted average of seasonal precipitation in winter increased in all of the studied climate change conditions, but in other seasons the amount of precipitation decreased or increased. The highest increase in the weighted average of seasonal precipitation was in winter due to the RCP2.6 scenario and GFDL-ESM2M model (23 mm). The highest decrease in the weighted average of seasonal precipitation was in autumn due to the RSP8.5 scenario and IPSL-CM5A-LR (10.5 mm). Slight changes in mean precipitation, on the other hand, a sharp decrease in minimum precipitation (446 mm due to G3S4) and a sharp increase in maximum precipitation (233 mm due to G2S1), indicate the occurrence of severe extreme events (drought and flood) in the future.
Cite this article: Javadi, S., Yousefi, H., Moridi, A., Khajehpour, H., & Fathi, T. (2023). Determination of Crisis Areas of Precipitation in Iran for Period of 2021-2040 by Climate Change. Journal of Water and Irrigation Management, 13 (2), 311-322. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22059/jwim.2021.325229.881
© The Author(s). Publisher: University of Tehran Press.
DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.22059/jwim.2021.325229.881
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Table 1. Statistical period, GCMs and scenarios used in this research
ISI-MIP Institute Scenarios Period Parameter
GFDL-ESM2M NOAA/Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory RCP2.6, RCP8.5, and Historical 2021-2050 for RCPs and 1986-2005
for Historical Precipitation HadGEM2-ES Met Office Hadley Center RCP2.6, RCP8.5, and Historical 2021-2050 for RCPs and 1986-2005
for Historical Precipitation IPSL-CM5A-LR L’Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace RCP2.6, RCP8.5, and Historical 2021-2050 for RCPs and 1986-2005
for Historical Precipitation
Observed (Base period) - 1986-2019 Precipitation
e X !| .)? f 5 ( d) 4B j f Z&U 6 i U& T T & K
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Table 2. Different scenarios and their acronyms in this research Acronym Scenario
GCM
G1S1 RCP 2.6
GFDL-ESM2M
G2S1 RCP 2.6
HadGEM2-ES
G3S1 RCP 2.6
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GFDL-ESM2M
G2S4 RCP 8.5
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Figure 1. Long-term average of the annual precipitation variation due to climate change in Iran (GFDL-ESM2M)
Figure 2. Long-term average of the annual precipitation variation due to climate change in Iran (HadGEM2-ES)
Figure 3. Long-term average of the annual precipitation variation due to climate change in Iran (IPSL-CM5A-LR)
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Table 3. The seasonal and annual precipitation variation due to climate change
Seasonal precipitation (Future - Base period) (mm) Annual precipitation (Future - Base period) (mm) Winter Spring Summer Fall
G1S1
Average 23.0 4.8 -1.7 1.0 25.5
Maximum 81.2 24.9 18.5 67.4 163.4
Minimum -27.3 -13.5 -59.8 -26.4 -28.7
G1S4
Average 18.8 5.3 -2.2 7.3 30.5
Maximum 100.7 26.9 8.6 58.4 144.3
Minimum -18.9 -8.7 -97.9 -32.1 -70.3
G2S1
Average 20.5 -2.5 -0.6 21.8 44.6
Maximum 88.6 30.6 19.7 275.1 233.7
Minimum -37.4 -16.1 -113.7 -10.2 -13.0
G2S4
Average 11.9 -0.9 -0.2 9.9 23.4
Maximum 52.7 11.6 27.9 141.7 139.2
Minimum -31.6 -21.5 -94.4 -25.2 -79.8
G3S1
Average 8.9 20.7 -1.1 -10.2 42.6
Maximum 57.5 80.9 24.5 16.5 150.7
Minimum -34.6 -26.9 -221.1 -103.5 -328.1
G3S4
Average 8.9 7.0 -2.0 -10.5 -16.8
Maximum 77.0 54.1 51.0 16.8 125.5
Minimum -25.3 -16.1 -240.5 -139.3 -446.0
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