Content
¾
General information about power shortage in China;
¾
Primary methods for load forecast;
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Case study – Shanghai;
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Conclusion and discussion.
What can you imagine,
if there is power shortage?
What can you imagine,
if there is power shortage?
Status quo - 1
Figure 1. The growth rate of electricity consumption in China
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
Growth rate(%)
Status quo - 2
Figure 2. Capacity & its growth rate
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year
Capacity / GW
0 2 4 6 8 10
Growth rate (%)
Status quo - 3
Figure 3. The change of the electricity consumption elasticity
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year the electricity consumption elasticity
Status quo - 4
- 5. 00%
0. 00%
5. 00%
10. 00%
15. 00%
20. 00%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Tot al pr i mar y i ndust r y secondar y i ndust r y
t er t i ar y i ndust r y r edi ent i al
Figure 4. growth of electricity consumption by industry
Status quo - 5
90% of power in industry is consumed by manufacturing!
Figure 5. sub-industry analysis
ferrous metal chemical construction
material nonferrous
metal textile
transport equipment
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 50 100 150 200
Electricity consumption in 2002 (Gwh)
Increasing rate (%)
Reasons and the question
¾ Unmatched growth speed of electric power with demand increasing (less investment);
¾ Fast increasing air-condition load;
¾ High speed growth of industry and power consuming industry;
¾ Less rainfall to cause hydropower;
¾ High temperature; ……
So the question is:
Primary methods - 1
elasticity coefficient analysis
¾ E = Ky / Kx
Ky means the growth rate of electricity consumption;
Kx means the growth rate of economy.
NOT suitable for China (country level):
¾ The economy puzzle;
¾ The economic structure is not mature
Primary methods - 2
trend analysis
¾ Fitting a curve and
forecasting according to the target year 2010, or 2020, and so on.
¾ Linear model,
multinomial model, logarithm model, …
¾ Big difference exists in results from different models
electricity cosumption in China
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
Growth rate(%)
Primary methods – 3
regression analysis
¾ Variables selection, such as GDP, population, temperature, and so on.
¾ Regression:
The accuracy and effectiveness of data is also suspectable.
p p
x b x
b x
b b
y =
0+
1 1+
2 2+ … …
Primary methods – 4
grey theory
G(1,1) model:
a e u
a x u
i
x(1) ( +1) = ( (0) (1) − ) −ai +
i =0,1,2,…
Other methods & why?
¾ Neural network method;
¾ Software package with many parameters;
¾ ……
Then, the question changes to be:
Why we cannot forecast the load accurately?
Shanghai case study - 1
¾ The center of Yangtze Delta Area;
¾ Fast economy
developments, especially manufacturing;
¾ Belonging to East China Grid, which has 20 GW shortage (China total: 30 GW).
Shanghai case study – 2
economic background
60.3%
52.5%
51.4%
Percentage of total products exported
73.8%
18.5%
Increasing rate of electrical and 17%
mechanical products
29.25 16.83
14.21 Electrical and mechanical products
exported (billion US dollar)
11.8%
10.9%
10.2%
Increasing rate of GDP
625.08 540.88
495.08 GDP（billion Yuan）
2003 2002
2001
Shanghai case study – 3
electricity consumption classification
-38.80%
Agriculture
45.41%
Residential consumption
13.94%
Business
49.74%
Metal product industry
38.19%
Construction material
22.66%
industry
25.80%
Total
Increasing rate from the end of 2001 to the end of 2003
Shanghai case study – 4
general information of electricity consumption
1.32 17.40%
14.50 15.53%
74.60 2003
0.82 11.14%
12.35 8.89%
64.57 2002
0.59 9.8%
11.11 6.00%
59.30 2001
Elasticity of electricity consumption growth of
peak load Peak load
(MW) Increasing
rate Total
consumption (GWh) Year
Shanghai case study – 5
this summer
¾
Nearly 17 MW (peak load);
¾
About 8 MW (50%) of peak load comes from air-conditioner;
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1.3 air-conditioners per household;
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High temperature (over 35 ℃ ) for two
weeks.
Shanghai case study – 6
measures taken
¾ Propaganda for energy saving;
¾ Temperature limits for air-conditioners in public areas;
¾ Increase output of power plants during peak load time;
¾ Price regulation (higher time-related price);
¾ Brownout & blackout;
¾ Nucleation (artificial rain);
Shanghai case study – 7
the future
¾ The demand will increase fast and continuously because export pushes.
¾ Peak load regulation is very important (random factor)!
－gas-fired air-conditioner system is a good choice, but:
－who will pay？
¾ Long term strategy: nuclear power for East China (coal supply from west to east).
Conclusion & discussion -1:
¾ A theory question or a decision question?
－actual method taken in the report of East China grid
－Information dissemination
－power plant, grid, government & consumer (decision model);
¾ Pay more attention to details:
－investor’s action ;
－power shortage hint from periodical
－market is effective (futures?)
Conclusion & discussion -2:
¾ Adjusting the relationship between the period of this industry and the “Five-Years Plan”?
－ How about revising the plan for power industry annually?
¾ Shanghai is a future scenario for most seaside cities.
Power surplus for tomorrow ?
A difficult question is:
Thank you!
