Construction of a Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasting System for the Establishment of Higher Education Talent Policies ( Ⅰ )
Sang Don Lee, Eui Kyoo Lee, Nam Chul Lee, Sang Jun Lee, Kwang Pyo Hong, Chang Hwan Kim
There is a need to construct a manpower demand and supply forecasting system so that policies related to the higher education talent needed to bring about sustained growth may be formulated. A great contribution to mid to long-term national development can be made by establishing policies on higher education talent that are based on more reliable forecasting of manpower demands. In addition, such a system can also help to maximize the potential growth capacity of the national economy.
Manpower training should be implemented based on policies that reflect manpower demand and supply forecasts based on the actual state of manpower over the mid to long-term. The classification system for the training and utilization of human resources should be constructed based on sectoral characteristics.
This study seeks to identify policies that can help maximize the potential growth capacity of the national economy and sustained growth in the era of low fertility and an aging society by constructing a mid to long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting system that can facilitate the forging of policies on higher education talent.
The first year of this study revolved around the analysis of the current state and problems with higher education talent policies. Its purpose was to construct a long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting system that could help to facilitate the establishment of higher education talent policies which reflect the changes in the internal and external environments and the variability of the industrial structure and labor market. This should be achieved through the development of a macroeconomic econometrics model that reflects the characteristics and structure of the Korean education market.
During the second year, the main focus will be on the reform of the existing manpower demand and supply forecasting-related statistical infrastructure. Such a move is designed to improve the reliability of the mid to long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting model. Moreover, a new statistical infrastructure will also be constructed to expand the general utilization of the results of the forecasting model crafted during the 1st year. The overall purpose is to conduct manpower demand and supply forecasts for individual majors, with the main focus being on the higher education sector.
The purpose over the third and final year of the study is to set up a linkage system for sectional mid and long-term manpower demand and supply forecasts and to improve the compatibility between sections via forecasting in conjunction with a couple of selected core sections which are expected to lead growth in the higher education sector. Another aim is to build a sectional forecasting linkage system that brings together comprehensive higher education and core sections.
In terms of its scale, Korean higher education has achieved quantitative expansion.
However, problems associated with low college and university education competitiveness have recently emerged as major issues. These problems have been the result of the low competitiveness of their education and research from a qualitative standpoint. International research has revealed that the competitiveness of Korean colleges and universities remains weak, and that, most notably, their educational competitiveness is at a very low level.
Futurologists and educationists have predicted that various issues such as the polarization of society, energy/ environmental problems, and changing values will emerge alongside the most remarkable changes in South Korean society, namely the advent of low fertility and an aging society. These changes come as part of the continued spread of globalization and the scientific & technological revolution.
The cultivation of global creative talent has been emphasized from the vantage point that talent with global creativity will become the key manpower resources in the future society, and that global talent will play a leading within the national economy in terms of the industrial sector. The development of the right people and educational vision is required to ensure that the higher education sector can meet such demands. Korean higher education policies must be geared towards the development and training of talent with global capability.
This can be brought about by matching quantitative expansion with qualitative improvements, and providers with consumer-directed demand.
We established proposals and the suggested direction for the construction of the macroeconomic econometrics model (referred to hereafter as the “KRIVET econometrics model”). Based on investigations of the characteristics and problems with the model and comparative analyses of domestic and foreign studies on similar models, the following conclusions were reached with regards to the development of the KRIVET econometrics model.
First, there is a need to attain connectivity between domestic industries. Second, in terms of manpower demand and supply forecasts, there is a need to ensure that a greater degree of
reliability can be achieved in terms of prediction capability by properly reflecting the present Korean situation rather than relying too much on economic theory. It was based on this consideration that the grafting of the industrial connectivity analysis model onto the KRIVET econometrics model was conducted.
The KRIVET econometrics model crafted based on previously developed forecasting models consisted of six blocks. These were aggregate supply and demand, money and banking, overseas, wage prices, interest rates, exchange rates, and the education market. The blocks in turn consisted of 31 equations, 24 behavioral, 6 identities, and 1 equilibrium conditioning equations. These were defined as 30 endogenous and 42 exogenous variables.
Estimation over the first quarter to the third quarter of 1990 was first conducted with the KRIVET econometrics model, and then a historical simulation and turning point test was carried out to assess the stability of the forecast model.
The results of the model examination were determined to be reliable, a determination that was based on the fact that RMSPE for the major variables was less than 5 percent. While the KRIVET econometrics model has the advantage that it can estimate efficiently based on pretesting information in the form of a simultaneous equation, much time and effort is required to carry out the estimation because it consisted of dozens of structural equations.
As priority GDP estimation is required for manpower demand and supply forecasts for the higher education sector, this study estimated GDP by developing an AD-AS model that could be adjusted to reduce the KRIVET econometrics model, and carried out further estimation so as to maximize information pertaining to the KRIVET econometrics and reduced AD-AS models to ensure its increased reliability.
The development of the first KRIVET demand and supply forecasting model in 1998 has been followed by continuous improvements that have taken into account the strengths and weaknesses identified in domestic and foreign studies. However, there are many limits plus structural problems associated with the utilization of the existing model to establish higher education talent policies.
As such, domestic and foreign forecasts of manpower demand and supply were analyzed as part of the development of the manpower demand and supply forecasts needed to establish higher education talent policies. The divided models for demand and supply forecasting was developed based on still-usable data, basic statistics data-building, the structure of the labor market, and improvements drawn from previous analyses of possible problems during the process of forecasting.
Using the manpower demand and supply forecasting model, mid and long-term manpower demand and supply forecasts were conducted for the period 2011 to 2020 on 28 sections, with the scope limited to industries, jobs, and education levels.
Although overall supply forecasts couldn’t be carried out because the existing statistical infrastructure was inadequate, the study nevertheless forecasted the graduates from higher
education as part of its attempts to achieve the ultimate purpose, “Construction of a manpower demand and supply forecasting system for the establishment of higher education talent policies.” Additional studies will be carried out to improve this model through revision and supplementation based on this study and the carrying out of forecasts by manpower demand and supply majors via the adding of supply forecasts.
- Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasts by Industry
The total number of employed individuals, which stood at 23.829 million people in 2010, is forecast to increase by an annual average of 0.8% to reach 25.743 million people by 2020. Moreover, with the notable exception of the wholesale and retail sales, food service, and lodging industries, employment in the service industry is forecast to increase. Private and public service and business are expected to play a particular vital role in increasing employment.
- Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasts by Occupation
A rise in professional occupations is anticipated. This expected increase can be attributed to the growing need for professional manpower in the knowledge-based society of today and in particular within the service industry.
- Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasts by Education Levels
University or junior college graduates or higher are forecast to form a majority within all forms of employment. Thus, although there is a demand for labor possessing high school degrees, higher education talent constitutes the core manpower required in the present knowledge-based society.
- Forecasts for Higher Education Graduates
The number of individuals with a university degree or higher has continuously increased.
This has been the result of the fact that our society tends to prefer higher education graduates. However, the number of such individuals is expected to decline due to the drop in the youth population. College graduates will also decrease to some extent over the period of 2010 to 2020 as higher education becomes more widespread. Meanwhile, the number of those with a graduate school degree will increase at a little faster rate as graduate schools turn out an increasing amount of graduates.
- Reinforcement of the Competitiveness of Higher Education to Counter Low Fertility and Aging Low fertility and aging will bring bout a decrease in the productive population, an increase in the average age of workers, a drop in savings, investment and consumption, and a decline in economic dynamism and national competitiveness. The impact of this situation can only alleviated by bringing about a move away from the quantity of superior talent and towards the improvement of the quality of such talent. Policies which will help universities and colleges bring about structural reform and enhance their specialization and accreditation will need to be firmly implemented.
- Talent Policies Pertaining to a Creative Society
Policies to cultivate creative talent should be put in place as part of the preparations for the advent of a creative society in which the success or failure of the nation is predicated on creativity. 20% of workers in Korea can be classified as creative talent, a ratio that is behind 30% and 39% recorded by the U.S. and Ireland, both of which represent advanced countries. This suggests that a strong emphasis should be placed on the cultivation of creative talent at the national level.
- Talent Policies Related to the Revolution in Science and Technology
There is a need to expand the educational focus on technological convergence and innovation, and to invigorate industry-university(including colleges) technological advancement collaboration so as to actively cope with the rapid growth of future science technology. To this end, there is a need to develop curriculums that bring together various learning sectors and to invest in the expansion of fundamental study; reinforce research ventures and support for multidisciplinary research; and bring about innovation in the form of a talent-centered research administration system in which researchers’ autonomy and creativity are respected.
- Talent Policies Related to Economic Advancement
The knowledge service industry is forecast to emerge as a strategic sector at the forefront of national development. To this end, there is a need to open up new majors and to operate multidisciplinary curriculums to help facilitate the advent of manpower training convergence, compound sectors, and a service industry that can create significant added value.
- Higher Education Talent Policies in Conjunction with the Advent of a Multicultural Society and Globalization
The importance of creative talent cultivation as a means to enhance national competitiveness in a multicultural global society is expected to increase exponentially. This can be brought about through such steps as the attraction of greater numbers of foreign professors and students; the construction of a global talent network; the expansion of international exchanges; expansion of elite universities or colleges overseas; invigoration of the international education market for domestic universities or colleges; establishment of an international students administration system; and the construction of a qualitative management system for education.
- Improvements to the Infrastructure as Part of Efforts to Construct a Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasting System
The establishment of a mid to long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting system represents an essential element of any efforts to establish efficient, substantive talent policies for the higher education sector. There is a need to begin to construct a statistics infrastructure which can help to reinforce the links between education and the
labor market; expand the infrastructure and investigation of human resources demand and supply forecasts; place a premium on the expansion and application of improvements to demand and supply forecasting results; improve the level of quality of manpower demand and supply forecasts; ensure the periodical construction of forecasting systems; and to secure the necessary budget and manpower.
