Primary energy demand is expected to rise 3.3% in 2011 and 3.0% in 2012.
Primary energy demand from 2011 to 2012 is expected to become stabilized due to a slowdown in the nation’s economic growth.
* Economic growth rate assumption: (Year 2010) 6.2% →(Year 2011) 3.8% →(Year 2012) 3.7%
Notes: Values in parentheses refer to the year-on-year growth rate (%); p refers to tentative figures; e refers to forecasts.
Outlook on primary energy demand
3
Category 2011 2012
1/4p 2/4p 3/4p 4/4e Annual (e) First half of
the year (e) Second half
of the year (e) Annual (e)
30.4 28.8 32.2 31.5 122.9 60.8 64.6 125.4
(-0.8) (3.1) (6.4) (3.3) (3.0) (2.7) (1.4) (2.0)
24.2 22.3 25.8 25.0 97.3 47.4 51.0 98.4
(3.7) (2.6) (5.6) (2.7) (3.7) (2.1) (0.4) (1.2)
205.0 181.5 199.3 211.8 797.7 392.9 410.5 803.5
(3.1) (-6.2) (4.0) (0.7) (0.4) (1.7) (-0.2) (0.7)
116.3 97.7 108.7 122.2 444.8 214.9 225.8 440.7
(-1.2) (-12.3) (-0.1) (-2.1) (-3.8) (0.4) (-2.2) (-0.9)
12.2 7.3 6.3 10.6 36.4 20.2 18.0 38.2
(11.3) (9.1) (10.3) (9.4) (10.1) (3.4) (6.7) (5.0)
1.6 1.9 3.4 1.4 8.2 3.6 4.6 8.2
(27.2) (21.4) (44.5) (3.2) (27.0) (4.8) (-2.9) (0.3)
37.5 38.6 38.2 40.1 154.4 82.2 86.4 168.6
(4.0) (5.8) (1.7) (4.1) (3.9) (8.0) (10.3) (9.2)
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 6.2 3.3 3.4 6.7
(2.9) (0.8) (-3.9) (11.0) (2.7) (7.1) (6.7) (6.9)
72.2 61.9 65.1 72.3 271.4 138.3 141.3 279.6
(3.8) (0.5) (5.3) (3.7) (3.3) (3.2) (2.9) (3.0)
56.4 46.6 49.0 56.2 208.3 106.2 108.2 214.4
(4.6) (-0.3) (4.0) (3.3) (2.9) (3.1) (2.8) (2.9)
<TableⅢ-13> Outlook on primary energy demand
Coal (Million ton)
-Excluding coking coal
Oil (Million bbl) -Excluding naphtha
LNG (Million ton)
Hydro (TWh) Nuclear power
(TWh) Other (Million TOE) Primary energy
(Million TOE) Primary energy
-Excluding for raw materials
Major energy sources for power generation, including nuclear energy and LNG, are forecast to indicate a relatively high increase in demand, attributable to continually strong electricity demand and the operation of new nuclear power plants (Singori Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2, Sinwolseong Nuclear Power Plant Unit 1).
* Rate of increase in amount of nuclear power generation: (Year 2010) 0.6% →(Year 2011) 3.9% →(Year 2012) 9.2%
* Rate of increase in LNG demand: (Year 2010) 26.8% →(Year 2011) 10.1% →(Year 2012) 5.0%
Energy demand for raw material use (naphtha, coking coal) is expected to go up 4.6% in 2011 owing to an upswing in industrial production activities. Its level of increase will likely drop to 3.4% in 2012, reflecting a downturn in the petrochemical industry.
- Energy for raw material use is forecast to account for 23.3% of primary energy demand in 2012.
Forecasts on key energy indicators
The energy intensity (TOE/million won) is expected to improve from 0.252 in 2010 to 0.251 in 2011 and 0.249 in 2012.
- The energy intensity deteriorated temporarily in 2009 and 201027), but is expected to turn around and improve starting from 2011.
[FigureⅢ-3] Forecasts on the economic growth rate and primary energy demand increase rate
Per-capita energy consumption is forecast to rise from 5.37 TOE in 2010 to 5.54 TOE in 2011 and 5.70 TOE in 2012.
Notes: e refers to forecasts.
Category 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e
Economic growth rate (%) 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2 3.8 3.7
Primary energy consumption
3.8 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.1 7.9 3.3 3.0
increase rate (%)
Energy intensity (TOE/Million won) 0.264 0.256 0.247 0.246 0.248 0.252 0.251 0.249 Per capita consumption (TOE) 4.75 4.83 4.88 4.95 4.99 5.37 5.54 5.70
<TableⅢ-14> Key indices related to energy consumption
27) The deterioration of energy intensity in 2009 is a result of the rate of increase in primary energy consumption (1.1%) exceeding the economic growth rate (0.3%), owing to a rise in the energy conversion loss triggered by a sharp rise in electricity consumption and the operation of new facilities in industries that consume large amounts of energy. The worsened intensity in 2010 mainly resulted from a soar in energy consumption for industrial use, owing to a favorable turn in the economy and base effects, as well as a rise in energy consumption for cooling and heating purposes resulting from abnormal weather in the winter and summer.
[FigureⅢ-4] Forecasts on energy intensity and per capita consumption
Forecasts on primary energy demand by energy source
Coal demand is expected to increase 3.0% in 2011 and 2.0% in 2012.
- In 2011, coal demand is expected to show gradual growth of approximately 3.0%, attributable to a slowdown in coal consumption for power generation (no new facilities) and base effects from a high increase in coking coal consumption (22.6%) in the previous year.
- In 2012, coal consumption for power generation is expected to show little change since no new facilities were built. Coking coal consumption is expected to turn around and indicate an upward trend in 2012.
Oil demand is expected to indicate extremely gradual growth of 0.4% in 2011 and 0.7%
in 2012.
- In 2011, oil demand is expected to indicate little change despite a rapid rise (6.4%) in naphtha consumption for raw material use. This is owing to a considerable drop in demand for use as industrial fuel as a result of continued high oil prices and demand for heating in the residential and commercial sector.
- A 0.7% rise from 2011 is expected for 2012 to reach 803.5 million barrels, owing to recovery of demand for transport and a slowdown in the downward trend in fuel for industrial use.
- Demand for naphtha, which accounts for 42% of total oil consumption (as of 2010), is expected to post an increase rate of 2.7% in 2012 as it is forecast that the upswing in the petrochemical industry and petroleum refining will slow down.
LNG demand is forecast to record growth of 10.1% in 2011 and 5.0% in 2012.
- LNG demand for power generation, which accounted for 46% of overall consumption in 2010, is expected to rise 12.5% in 2011 and 5.1% in 2012, thus leading an overall increase in LNG demand.
- Demand for LNG for power generation is expected to indicate sound growth as it is forecast that there will be a rapid increase in electricity demand, notwithstanding the 3 million kW (three nuclear power plants) capacity expansion from the establishment of base-load power generation facilities from 2011 to 2012.
- LNG demand for power generation and demand for town gas production both go up in
case of an abnormal cold wave in the winter. For this reason, there is a need to thoroughly examine LNG supply and demand conditions in the winter.
The amount of nuclear power generation is forecast to go up 3.9% in 2011 and 9.2% in 2012 with the operation of new facilities.
- Following the operation of Singori Unit 1 in (February) 2011, commercial operation of Singori Unit 2 and Sinwolseong Unit 1 is planned for early 2012.
- At the end of 2012, there will likely be a substantial rise in the amount of nuclear power generation in tandem with facility expansion of around 2 million kW (10.7%) from the previous year.
Forecasts on percentage of total consumption taken up by each energy source
The percentage of total consumption taken up by oil decreased to less than 50% in 2002, and continued to go down. It is forecast to stand at 38.5% in 2011 and 37.7% in 2012.
The percentage of total consumption occupied by coal continually increased from 23.0%
in 2001 to 28.9% in 2010, gaining strength from a steady rise in coking coal consumption for industrial use and consumption for power generation.
- The percentage of total consumption occupied by coal will likely indicate a downward trend in 2011 and 2012 for the first time in the 2000s, owing to no additional construction of coal-based power generation facilities and a slowdown in the level of increase in demand for industrial use.
The share occupied by LNG has been continually rising in tandem with a steady rise in demand for power generation, resulting from limited expansion of base-load power generation facilities.
- The share occupied by LNG is expected to rise from 16.4% in 2010 to 17.8% in 2012 because not enough base-load power generation facilities will be built to address the increase in electricity demand in 2011 and 2012.
The share of primary energy occupied by nuclear power went up to 16.1% in 2005, and then continued a downward trend as no new facility expansions took place through 2010. The share occupied by nuclear power is expected to rise to 13.0% in 2012, as a result of the construction of Singori Units 1 and 2 (2 million kW) and Sinwolseong Unit 1 (1 million kW).
[FigureⅢ-5] Share of primary energy demand taken up by each energy source
