To develop an adequate course of action on this issue and to secure public support for it, it is necessary to understand the essence of the current conflict between the US and the DPRK. Russia has consistently supported the preservation of the non-proliferation regime and the denuclearized status of the Korean peninsula. The main demand from the US side is that the DPRK abandon its nuclear weapons program.
So far, we only know about the DPRK's nuclear weapons from the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, J. However, if this is true, why did the US wait nearly 8 years until August 2002 to the start of the construction of the atomic power station in the DPRK. Washington is refusing to hold bilateral dialogue with Pyongyang because, allegedly, the US honored its side of the FA, but North Korea did not.
The multilateral format is invoked to give the impression that the problem does not lie in the mutual claims between the US and the DPRK on quite concrete bilateral agreements, but in the DPRK's attempts to 'reach out' to the rest of the world. blackmailing'. The choice for a multilateral approach was partly motivated by domestic political considerations of the Bush administration. Pyongyang was apparently shocked by the lack of resistance from the Iraqi army.
Some Russian analysts see Moscow's absence in Beijing as a result of the US policy of pushing Russia out of the process of Korean settlement.
Major Players’ Positions
The impartial study of this unjustly forgotten document, as well as other US-DPRK agreements, proves that the current security demands of the DPRK to the US do not exceed the framework of the promises already made by the Americans to the country . During the current crisis, Beijing has repeatedly spoken in favor of maintaining the denuclearized status of the Korean peninsula. At the same time for China, due to its strategic, political and prestige considerations, the liquidation of the DPRK by force, possibly as a result of the US attack, would be absolutely unacceptable.
Loss of the DPRK would seriously undermine China's standing and international standing in Asia and around the world. Therefore, the US is trying to lure the Chinese with promises that after the DPRK's "disarmament" is completed, US forces will not be deployed in the North, but will be returned south of the 38th parallel, or that US attacks will only go north -Korea will be limited. nuclear facilities. In view of the specific interests on the Korean peninsula, Beijing seems to be seeking henceforth to mobilize all political and diplomatic methods available as well as the necessary economic resources to ensure the DPRK's survival.
In light of China's position, any military operation, especially ground forces by the US and its partners against the DPRK, remains highly unlikely, without which the goals of the use of force would be unattainable. The DPRK's position is dictated in the first place by the task of ensuring the physical survival of the regime in the international environment that has changed significantly after the September. At the same time, Pyongyang understands that the hasty and excessive openness of North Korean society to the modern world is dangerous for the foundations of the system that exists in the DPRK.
However, it would be premature to draw conclusions about the consensus of US and Korean positions on relations with the DPRK. At the same time, Japan agrees with the existing opinion in the region that the denuclearized status of the Korean Peninsula should be maintained in order to encourage North Korea to make market changes, and that it is desirable to achieve these goals in a peaceful manner without allowing North Korea's nuclear issue to become an "apple dispute' in Northeast Asia. Some people have expressed an opinion in favor of forming a united front with the US and its allies to show "collective rigidity" towards the DPRK and eliminate its nuclear ambitions.
Some observers believe that the DPRK, like in the early 1990s, is only bluffing to gain diplomatic concessions and economic benefits. However, the document does not mention anything regarding the cooperation of the two countries in the Korean problem.23. 23 Joint Communication of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China on the Situation on the Korean Peninsula, February 27, 2003 (http://www.mid.ru).
24 Joint Declaration of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, Moscow, May http://www.mid.ru). Russia's approach to solving the nuclear problem is determined by the fact that the Korean Peninsula directly borders the Russian Far East region.
Possible Scenarios
Attempts to impose Iraqi-style tailor-made inspections on Pyongyang may most likely be unacceptable to North Korea due to the country's long-standing xenophobia, lack of sufficient reliability in the face of the regime's leaders, security guarantees, and simply because the DPRK, unlike Iraq, did. don't lose a war. Verification of the end and physical dismantling of WMD programs in the DPRK is a bombshell that gives each of the parties concerned, the United States and the DPRK, first of all, an opportunity to suspend the realization of even the best possible solution. An alternative to a comprehensive solution is the military scenario to resolve the conflict between the US and the DPRK.
Development of events in Korea under this scenario is promoted by the reluctance of the Bush administration, and in the realization of its policy in the region, to take into account legitimate interests of the security of other states located there, including the DPRK take to meet universal norms. and principles of international law, including the UN Charter (unilateral sanctions, refusal to normalize bilateral relations, unwillingness to fulfill the United States' international obligations, preference given not to methods of diplomacy, but power politics when solving the existing problems becoming), the United States' refusal to fulfill its obligations under AF, Washington's desire to impose on Pyongyang pro-American parameters of international and domestic political behavior, and ultimately regime replacement. On the other side of the coin, it does not help to seek a compromise on the DPRK's determination to acquire at all costs such deterrent potential as impunity outside intervention in its internal affairs with the aim of liquidation of the current regime. Pyongyang believes that it is possible to achieve normalization of relations with the United States mainly due to the absence of.
An attack on the DPRK could become the worst nightmare that can only be imagined in Washington, as well as something that the Americans want to avoid most of all - resurrection of the Russia-China alliance, even if it would be vaguely similar to the alliance . between the USSR and the PRC in the 1950s. The US, in the event of conflict with the DPRK, cannot rule out the possibility that North Korea will cause unacceptable damage to US allies Japan and South Korea, which will almost certainly cause their serious objections, as well as to US troops which in these countries and probably to continental parts of the USA. In light of the above factors, the most likely situation remains the development of the situation under a protracted negotiation scenario with extensive use of traditional elements of a "carrots and sticks" policy by all parties involved with a gradual progress towards a comprehensive settlement.
With the exception of the US, all other parties involved, including the DPRK, are strongly in favor of political and diplomatic methods to resolve the problem. Secondly, the fate of the current and already almost forgotten 'quadrilateral talks' on the Korean question (US, China, DPRK, ROK) has shown that whenever an opportunity for progress on bilateral paths arises, the members of the dialogue readily forget multilateral dialogue. mechanisms. This would certainly be the case if the US were to take appropriate reciprocal steps, taking into account the DPRK's security concerns.
Even more fundamental is the problem of what the US really wants – preservation of the denuclearized status of the Korean peninsula or regime change. Among such unequivocal signals that do not require congressional approval, one example could be the removal of the DPRK from the list of states sponsoring international terrorism. Its success will largely depend on the US's ability to organize a new "coalition of the willing" and cooperation with China and Russia.
