How will the second term Obama administration's foreign policy unfold for the next four years. This chapter will provide a baseline analysis for the second term Obama administration's policy toward Northeast Asia.
Obama Administration’s Foreign Policy
Currently, the US economy is improving2 and the second term of the Obama administration's foreign. An important task for the foreign policy of the next Obama administration is to establish a grand strategy in the United States.
Obama Administration’s East Asia Policy: Pivot to Asia
Historically, the United States has enjoyed the hegemonic status in the Asia-Pacific region since the end. Since the Korean War in 1950, the United States and China have increased their influence in the Korean peninsula.
First Term Obama Administration’s Policy towards China
To co-exist as both an incumbent and a rising power, the United States encouraged China to follow international norms and laws. As part of an effort to encourage China to adhere to international norms, the Obama administration has sought to engage with China in multilateral institutions such as the United Nations (UN), the G-20, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). During the first term of Obama's presidency, the United States and China successfully cooperated in the United Nations Security Council as two permanent members to pass resolutions on sanctions against North Korea and Iran, although China opposed the proposed sanctions. led by the US.
In addition, "the Obama administration has raised the profile of the G-20 grouping of major economies, working with China in that environment to address global economic challenges."20 The United States has made an effort to resolve trade disputes to resolve with China by the rules and norms of the World Trade Organization. To increase the United States' visibility in Asia, the Obama administration worked to strengthen security alliances with Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand; developed relations with new emerging regional powers such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam; attended regional multilateral institutions such as the East Asia Summit in 2011. For the United States, Asia is a critical region for its economy, military and political interests.
Economic Interdependence between the United States and China
Although the United States has officially stated that the United States' "rebalancing" strategy is not aimed at any particular country, most observers state that the rebalancing strategy is at least partially a response to China's growing economic and military influence.22 There are two. the main areas of the rebalancing strategy towards China: economy and military areas. The volume of trade between the United States and China has increased dramatically since China became a member of the World Trade Organization in December 2001. Although the total volume of trade between the two countries has been steadily increasing, the United States' trade deficit with China has also increased dramatically. from
With the increase in trade volume between the US and China and the US trade deficit with China, trade disputes between two countries in the World Trade Organization (WTO) have continuously arisen. According to the data above, the second term Obama administration will pursue a more aggressive trade policy towards China compared to the previous term, although the US recognizes China's economic importance due to trade volume with China. In the State of the Union address in January 2012, Obama announced the creation of a trade enforcement unit to investigate "unfair trade practices in countries like China." And in talks with Hu Jintao at the March 2012 nuclear security summit, Obama noted that "there is a strong mutual understanding of the potential benefits of trade between our two nations in accordance with the international rules and norms." However, the Obama administration will not adhere to a strictly aggressive trade policy because it could lead to Chinese retaliation against US exports to and investments in.
Military Competition between the United States and China
The United States is also concerned about China's strong assertion of sovereignty over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea (SCS). Tensions in the SCS between regional states, including China, have emerged as a major security challenge for the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. In July 2010, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton explicitly stated that the United States had a "national interest" in the SCS.
In this situation, the United States tried to cooperate with China, which was believed to have powerful. And in the process of the six-party talks, China has supported UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea initiated by the United States aimed at North Korea's missile and nuclear tests. However, if the negotiations unfortunately end or fail to show constructive results, the US and China may lose a platform for security communication and cooperation.
Conclusion
In talks with Hu Jintao at the March 2012 nuclear security summit, Obama remarked that "I think cooperation and coordination between the United States and China on all of these issues is very important," Obama said, "not only for the interests of our two countries , but in the interest of the world."32 In the presidential debate on October 22, 2012, Obama said that "China is both an adversary and a potential partner in the international community if it follows the rules."33 President Obama's China policy was initially favorable , but it has become tougher.Specifically, the US will adopt a dual strategy against China, both economically and militarily.
On the economic side, the United States will adopt a competitive strategy to establish fair trade practices with China and a cooperative stance to avoid retaliation by China, which has the world's second largest economic market. In the field of security, the Obama administration will adopt a competitive deterrence strategy to prevent the rise of China's influence in the region. At the same time, the United States will continue security cooperation with China to resolve regional security issues such as North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
Prospects and Tasks of the U.S.-ROK Alliance
Key provisions of an agreement were documented as a road map for the alliance transformation and the two allies began their work on the behavioral factors of the alliance. In the second term Obama administration, the two allies should take advantage of the newly created 2+2 meeting to for-. The sinking of the ROK's Cheonan ship implies that the United States' nuclear deterrent capability is still valid to create an environment in which South Korea responds to North Korea's attack with conventional weapons.
On the other hand, the objectives of the United States regional MD system are to defend against missiles such as North Korea's Scud, Rodong and ICBM types and to provide full-range defense with lower, medium and high levels. South Korea should prepare for any issues regarding cost-sharing of the United States' defense costs, which were raised by the US Congress after a recent fiscal crisis. The Second Term Obama administration policy toward the Korean Peninsula and the U. has given a crucial task to strategically plan for cost-sharing of the United States' defense costs under Washington's policy of Rebalancing to Asia.
U.S.-ROK Alliance and China
Second, South Korea should strive for diversification of relations with China stemming from a solid foundation of the ROK-U.S. As seen during the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong incidents, the decisive role of the alliance comes to the fore in moments of crisis. The total production volume for the Chinese manufacturing sector registered 1,600 billion. USD in 2010, which is on the track of the USA, which only registered 100 billion. dollars more than China.
Finally, South Korea should find strategic commonality through the expansion of the Six-Party Talks. South Korea should develop a cooperative security mechanism that includes Northeast Asia, and this can be achieved through the expansion and development of the existing Six-Party framework. South Korea has aligned its goal of the Six-Party Talks to be the denuclearization of North Korea, but this goal needs to be reassessed.
Conclusion
In other words, South Korea should take a step aside to focus only on the North Korea nuclear issues in order to create a common understanding and policy goals in dealing with the North Korea issues and to prevent the Korean peninsula becomes a battlefield of diplomatic conflicts between China and the United States. Washington's commitment to a robust relationship with South Korea will most likely mean that the second-term Obama administration will adopt an engagement policy toward North Korea. The new South Korean government's policy towards North Korea will emphasize dialogue and cooperation with the North.
Although negotiations over North Korea's nuclear weapons program have consumed the past three administrations (the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations), there is no sign of a resolution. The policy of the United States toward North Korea is closely related to the security, political, and economic interests of the United States in Asia. The United States has a duty to protect its alliance partners, such as South Korea and Japan, from a North Korean attack.
The First Term Obama Administration’s Policy towards North Korea
That is to say, the prerequisite for the Obama administration's flexible engagement policy towards North Korea is North Korea's positive efforts towards denuclearization. The Obama administration suspended the 'February 29, 2012 US-North Korea Agreements' in which the US pledged to provide food aid. The US's foreign policy towards North Korea is also an extension of the US's global – East Asian – Korean strategies.
Like Iran in the Middle East, North Korea in Asia has gone head-to-head with the United States' policy of a 'nuclear-free world'. South Korea and the United States have cooperated closely on North Korea issues. It is true that such inconsistency in the policy of the United States against North Korean affairs has led to some dissonance between South Korea and the United States in dealing with North Korea.
The most important element of the US-ROK alliance, which is North Korea policy, does not appear to be in tension with the United States. China's Policy and Influence on the North Korean Nuclear Issue: Denuclearization and/or Stabilization of the Korean Peninsula?”. Korean Journal of Defense Analysis.
