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This paper investigates the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in each of five Central Asian countries from 1990 to 2014. 11 Table 2: Recent research works on decoupling analysis between environmental pressure and economic growth in Central Asia. 28 Table 9: Results of the analysis of the decoupling of energy consumption and economic growth in Tajikistan for the time period Tapio model and OECD model.

34 Table 12: Results of the analysis of the decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth across Central Asia from 1990 to 2014.

Introduction

Justification of the study

Description of the case study region

The considerable carbon intensity is due to the importance of coal in many post-Soviet republics, as well as the existence of energy-intensive industries. Global justice has two important indicators, namely energy consumption per capita and carbon emissions per capita; however, the difference in the above-mentioned two indicators between Central Asian countries is even greater compared to energy and carbon intensity. Two countries with extremely high TPES per capita (over 4 TOE/cap) are Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

These countries also have the highest CO2 emissions per capita, exceeding 10 t CO2, and most countries have CO2 emissions per capita below the global average of 4.4 t CO2 (the lowest is 0.4 t CO2 per capita in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the US ). region) [8].

Thesis organization and objectives

Carbon intensity of energy varies much less than other intensities and varies between 1.18 tonnes of CO2 per TOE in Tajikistan and 3.09 tonnes for Kazakhstan. Although there has been much on energy consumption or economic development of Central Asia in general, none of this has focused specifically on how growth rate of the environmental pressure relates to the growth rate of the economic drive. The aim of this work is to examine the energy dependence, energy security and economic development in Central Asia which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from 1990 to 2014.

This paper reviews recent advances that applied decoupling theory to analyze the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth to demonstrate the relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in five different Central Asian countries.

Literature review

Introduction

Recent research works

Before 2000, the relationship between the growth of the economy and energy consumption corresponded to the recession-decoupling condition resulting from a recession in an economy. Establishing related energy policies in the rest of Central Asia could put the above strategy into practice, but such research on other members of Central Asia is lacking. Moreover, the analysis of this article can be extended to other countries in Central Asia.

All data on CO2 emissions, energy consumption and GDP for each Central Asian country were obtained from the World Bank, while data on energy consumption were obtained from the Center for Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis. Both crises in the financial plan as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union led to a decrease in total carbon dioxide emissions from 1992 to 1998. Then, reforms in the economic market led to a slower increase in total carbon dioxide emissions in parallel with the growth of the economic sector. .

They identified four main factors of carbon dioxide emissions: economic activity effect, population effect, energy intensity effect and energy carbon structure effect. It has been investigated that carbon dioxide emissions caused by energy-related class have increased in 5 different countries of Central Asia. In contrast, energy-carbon structure effect and energy intensity effect were recognized as main two inhibiting factors of gas emission.

Due to the economic developments of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are highly dependent on high-carbon energies, these countries were recognized as the main contributors to the total emissions of carbon dioxide and t, respectively). Finally, the decoupling indices clarified the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth, highlighting the emergence of a "weak decoupling" between these two variables in Central Asia.

Table 2: Recent research works on decoupling analysis between environmental pressure and economic growth in Central Asia [16], [17]

Decoupling analysis model applied in recent research papers

The decoupling index method
The elastic analysis method

ΔGDP difference in GDP from base time to time n Eo total energy consumption. First, strong separation is associated with a reduction in energy consumption and an increase in economy. Second, strong negative decoupling is associated with an increase in energy consumption and a decrease in economy.

Third, weak decoupling implies an increase in both the economy and energy consumption, but the growth rate of energy consumption is lower than the growth rate of the economy. Fourth, expansive negative decoupling is associated with economic and energy growth, but the growth rate of energy consumption is higher than the growth rate of the economy. Fifth, weak negative decoupling involves a reduction in both the economy and energy consumption, but the growth rate of energy consumption is higher than the growth rate of the economy.

Sixth, recessionary decoupling represents the decrease in both the economy and energy consumption, however the growth rate of energy consumption is lower than the growth rate of the economy [21].

Table 4: The elasticity decoupling method [20]

Materials and Methods

Data and Variables

Methods

OECD decoupling Index
Tapio decoupling model

Med Tapio investigated the scope of European transport and sequestration standards for carbon emissions and developed an elastic analysis called the Tapio Segregation Model [23]. Fifth, weak negative decoupling implies a reduction in the economy and energy consumption, regardless of the growth rate of energy consumption. Sixth, recessionary decoupling implies a decrease in both the economy and energy consumption, but the growth rate of energy consumption is lower than the growth rate of the economy [10].

Results and Discussion

Approximate relationship analysis

Decoupling Analysis of Central Asia

Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

Note: ΔTPES, the changes in total primary energy supply (Mtoe); ΔG, the changes in GDP growth (billions of 2010 USD using PPPs); μ, the decoupling elasticity indicator for energy consumption and economic growth; RD, recessive decoupling; WND, weak negative decoupling; WD, weak decoupling; SD, strong decoupling; END, expensive negative decoupling; RC, recessive linkage; EC, expansive coupling and ND, non-decoupling; RD, relative decoupling; AD, absolute decoupling. Second, strong negative decoupling means a decline in the economy and an increase in energy consumption and occurred in 2001-2002. All these events caused the first two years of the studied time period to correspond to a decrease in both energy consumption and economy, in more detail energy consumption showed higher speed compared to the economic growth rate: weak negative decoupling except for 1993-1995.

The decoupling period covers the years 1997–2006: the relationship between energy consumption and the economy was initially in a state of strong decoupling, and then in a state of weak decoupling. The analysis of the decoupling of energy consumption and economic growth for Turkmenistan can be divided into two time periods. In the first time period, the years of relative, weak and strong decoupling were the most popular decoupling trend in the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.

In detail, the first two years of independence can be described as a decline in the economic sector and a decline in energy consumption, but energy consumption was lower than the economic growth rate corresponding to the relative decoupling. Here expansive strong decoupling stands for increase in both the energy and economic sectors, even more energy consumption is higher than economic growth. Decoupling analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and the economy in Uzbekistan showed two phases of change.

The first phase, the years between 1990 and 1998, was the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in all three negative decoupling states: expansive, strong and weak negative decoupling states. The second phase, from 1998 to 2014, saw the decoupling of energy consumption from economic growth mostly in two ways: weak decoupling and strong decoupling. Here, weak decoupling means an increase in both energy consumption and the economy with the difference in the rate of change in favor of the economy, while strong decoupling means an increase in the economy and a decrease in energy consumption.

Note: ΔTPES, changes in total primary energy supply (Mtoe); ΔG, changes in GDP growth (billion 2010 dollars using PPPs); μ, the elasticity indicator of the decoupling of energy consumption and economic growth; RD, recessive recessive; WND, weak negative detachment; WD, weak detachment; SD, strong detachment; END, expensive negative disconnect; RC, recessive linkage; EC, expansive union and ND, nondisjunction; RD, relative detachment; after Christ, absolute detachment.

Table 4: Results Decoupling analysis of energy consumption and economic growth in Kazakhstan for time period 1990-2014: Tapio model and OECD model

Decoupling Analysis of CO 2 emissions and economic growth across Central Asia

Background information on CO 2 emissions in Central Asia
Decoupling analysis between CO 2 emissions and economic growth across Central Asia

This paper presents a data-driven investigation of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Central Asia from 1990 to 2014. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was analyzed under two decoupling methods: the Tapio decoupling method and the OECD decoupling index method. For Kazakhstan, the results of the analysis of the decoupling of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth can be divided and explained in two stages.

For Kyrgyzstan, the results of the analysis of the decoupling of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth can be divided and interpreted into three stages. For Tajikistan, the results of the analysis of the decoupling of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth can be divided and interpreted into three stages. For Turkmenistan, the results of the analysis of the decoupling of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth can be divided and interpreted in two stages.

In the first phase from 1990 to 2001, relative, weak, and strong decoupling were the most popular decoupling trends in the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. For Uzbekistan, the results of the analysis of the decoupling of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth can be divided and interpreted into two phases. In the first phase from 1990 to 1998, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was in all three states of negative coupling: expansive, strong, and weak negative coupling.

Zhao, “The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and the development strategy of a low-carbon economy in Kazakhstan,” Journal of Arid Land , vol. Zhao, “The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and low-carbon development strategy.