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PT MIGAS HULU JABAR BUSINESS STRATEGY TO BECOME THE LEADING ENERGY REGIONAL OWNED ENTERPRISE (ROE) IN INDONESIA CASE STUDY: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS IN REFUSE DERIVED FUEL PROJECT

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International Journal of Business and Economy (IJBEC) eISSN: 2682-8359 [Vol. 4 No. 1 March 2022]

Journal website: http://myjms.mohe.gov.my/index.php/ijbec

PT MIGAS HULU JABAR BUSINESS STRATEGY TO BECOME THE LEADING ENERGY REGIONAL OWNED

ENTERPRISE (ROE) IN INDONESIA CASE STUDY:

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS IN REFUSE DERIVED FUEL PROJECT

Zaky Abdurrasyid Mubarak 1* and Maryat Nirwandi 2

1 2 Magister Business and Administration, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung City, INDONESIA

*Corresponding author: [email protected]

Article Information:

Article history:

Received date : 27 December 2021 Revised date : 6 March 2022 Accepted date : 8 March 2022 Published date : 9 March 2022 To cite this document:

Mubarak, Z. A., & Nirwandi , M.

(2022). PT MIGAS HULU JABAR BUSINESS STRATEGY TO

BECOME THE LEADING ENERGY REGIONAL OWNED ENTERPRISE (ROE) IN INDONESIA CASE STUDY: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS IN REFUSE DERIVED FUEL PROJECT. International Journal of Business and Economy, 4(1), 123-137.

Abstract: PT Migas Hulu Jabar (MUJ) is a Regional Owned Enterprise (ROE) that manages a 10%

participating interest (PI) in ONWJ. Challenges from the oil and gas business include the decline in the natural production of oil and gas wells. To compensate for this natural decline, MUJ is faced with the challenge of being able to develop the company to increase value, as well as the company's step to be able to create the business beyond the 10% PI through funding capabilities that come from the 10% PI income at ONWJ. One of the business developments that the company can carry out is New Renewable Energy (NRE). Through the assignment scheme, MUJ plans to carry out a construction project for the Greater Cirebon Regional TPPAS. This research contains making the right strategy by analysing internal factors using VRIO analysis and value chain analysis and external analysis using PESTEL analysis, porter's five forces model, and competitor analysis as tools at PT.

Migas Hulu Jabar is Indonesia's new oil and gas player.

This study focuses on corporate strategy and advances in theory and practice of Capital Budgeting Analysis (CBA) and their impact on investment decisions for the Greater Cirebon Regional TPPAS development project.

Before deciding on this investment, a feasibility study of

the project is carried out carefully to obtain optimal

analysis results that can provide many benefits for the

company. This study indicates that MUJ can grow as a

company and product diversification, one of which is

NRE. In addition, the Cirebon Raya Regional TPPAS

development project is financially feasible only in terms

(2)

1. Introduction

PT Migas Hulu Jabar is an ROE recipient of 10% PI at ONWJ. Oil and gas production data from SKK shows that oil and natural gas production will decline naturally. This will impact the 10% PI revenue sharing to MUJ ONWJ and MUJ.

Through funding capabilities that come from 10% PI income at ONWJ, MUJ is faced with the challenge of being able to develop the company to increase company value, as well as the company's steps to be able to build a business outside the 10% PI, including in the NRE sector.

1.1. Company Profile

PT Migas Hulu Jabar (Perseroda) or "MUJ" is a Regional Owned Enterprise (ROE) which is 100% owned by the West Java Provincial Government. MUJ has 2 (two) subsidiaries, namely MUJ ONWJ and ENM. MUJ ONWJ has a 10% Participating Interest (PI) management business in ONWJ, while ENM has business activities supporting oil and gas and other energy services.

1.2. Business Scope

Based on the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 37 of 2016 concerning the Transfer of 10% PI in the Oil and Gas WK, MUJ formed MUJ ONWJ to run a business in the 10% PI ONWJ WK. Following the mandate of the Ministerial Decree, MUJ ONWJ may not carry out other business activities other than managing 10% PI in ONWJ WK.

Therefore, MUJ finally formed another subsidiary to capture business potential beyond the 10% PI.

1.3. Business Issue

It is necessary to realize that the energy availability from oil and natural gas is depleting from day today. Sources of reserves that do not increase and increased consumption for the needs of commercial industries and households make MUJ need to consider alternative energy production to meet energy needs in West Java. The trend of the energy transition to environmentally friendly energy is one of the government's long-term targets to overcome the scarcity of energy sourced from fossils in the future. MUJ needs to offset the natural decline from production at ONWJ, which directly impacts PI's 10% revenue.

of Free Cash Flow to The Firm (FCFF) having a positive NPV. This payback period is shorter than the project life, an IRR greater than WACC, and a profitability index of more than 1. The project is not feasible from Free Cash Flow to The Equity (FCFE). Sensitivity analysis revealed several parameters with a high level of risk, including Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) availability, technology selection, RDF production, RDF price, and tipping fee.

Keywords: MUJ, Growth, Diversification, Refuse

Derived Fuel Project, Municipal Solid Waste, Capital

Budgeting Analysis.

(3)

2. Business Issue Exploration 2.1. Conceptual Framework

To make the conceptual distinction and find the organizing ideas as an appropriate solution, this document will be guided by a conceptual framework developed. The conceptual framework created as this document views and issues to be gathered and analysed as can be shown as follow:

Figure 1. Conceptual Framework

2.2. Internal and External Analysis

PESTEL analysis, Porter's Five Forces, and competitor analysis were conducted to analyze the external factors, while VRIO and VCA were undertaken to investigate internal factors.

2.2.1. PESTEL Analysis

The summary of PESTEL Analysis is as follows:

No. Politic Economic Sociocultural

1

Assignment of the Provincial Government to ROE as 100%

shareholder

Economic growth of 1.3% in 2022 to achieve an APBN deficit of <3% of GDP as mandated by Law 2/2020

Population growth in West Java

2

Tax Treatment Policy on Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities with Gross Split Production Sharing Contracts

The effect of inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate

The increasing demand for energy in West Java

3

Central and Regional Government Policies in achieving the energy mix target in 2025

Changes in world crude oil prices and the determination of the selling price of natural gas

The addition of a new economic area in West Java

4 World policy in the context of the energy transition to green energy

The amount of investment value for the oil and gas industry

The distribution of society in West Java, which is very spread out in various regions

5 Changes in the position of leadership in ROE every change of regional head

The paradigm of using new energy sources in the community is still lacking

The dominance of SOEs in energy management in West Java (example:

Pertamina and PGN)

Public and industry awareness about the

benefits of using green energy

(4)

No. Technological Environmental Legal 1

Optimizing the process of exploration and exploitation of oil and gas fields that require high technology

The impact of using fossil energy sources on the environment

Law No. 23 of 2014 concerning Regional Government

2

Rejuvenation of oil and gas field production facilities that require a large amount of capital

The relationship between population growth and global warming, increasing carbon

Government Regulation No. 54 of 2017 concerning ROE

3

NRE technology is increasing, but it needs financial and policy support to implement

Reducing carbon emissions and being environmentally friendly in the use of NRE

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 37 of 2016, MUJ has the privilege as an ROE to be able to participate in the management of 10% PI 4

EBT technology, which mostly comes from outside Indonesia

By using NRE, reducing pollution in the form of carbon dioxide gas in the area around the factory

Energy mix targets in the General National Energy Plan or RUEN and Regional or RUED

5 The impact of using batteries in NRE

that causes waste

Availability of legal permits for companies to run business in the energy sector

6 The suitability of the company's line of business is

running a business in the energy sector

7 Limited period of 10% PI contract in ONWJ

2.2.2. Porter 5 Forces Analysis

• Rivalry → Moderate. This competitive action can affect the company's efforts to adapt to the environment. Intense competition can be identified when competitors are few, no monopoly, the product is not diversified, and barriers to exit are low.

• Buyers → High. Buyers have a better bargaining position by lowering prices, setting quality standards for goods and payment schemes. This has an impact on the industry in the bargaining power of buyers.

• Suppliers → Moderate. The bargaining position of suppliers will be vital when there are few suppliers or unique products so that there are no substitute products.

• Threat of New Entry → Moderate. New entrants are a threat to existing players in the industry. Usually, new entrants offer better quality products but compete on price.

• Substitutes → High. Substitute products can have the same function as existing products and have advantages and a more competitive price.

2.2.3. Competitor Analysis

For the oil and gas supporting industry, there are 2 (two) major national companies already have a large capacity in running their business. In terms of business capacity, MUJ cannot be compared with PT Pertamina Drilling Service Indonesia (PDSI) and PT Elnusa because the two companies have been in the oil and gas supporting industry for a long time, while MUJ is just starting to explore the industry. There are several similar companies with a business capacity that is smaller or equal to the business capacity that MUJ runs, but because of the constraints in the availability of information sources related to these companies, the "big player" companies are used as comparisons to see the perspective of the company's capabilities.

To compete in this industry.

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2.2.4. VRIO Analysis

The summary of VRIO Analysis as follows:

Resource

Resource Characteristic

Competitive Implication Valuable Rareness Costly to

Imitate

Organized to Capture Value

Financial ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Sustained Competitive Advantage

Organizational ✓ ✓   Temporary Competitive Advantage

Physical ✓    Competitive Parity

Technological ✓    Competitive Parity

Reputation ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Sustained Competitive Advantage

Human Resource ✓ ✓   Competitive Parity

Innovation ✓ ✓ ✓  Unused Competitive

2.2.5. Value Chain Analysis

Competitive advantage is also derived from the configuration of resources rather than simply the uniqueness of those resources. Therefore, the analysis of the internal resources should investigate the linkage between resources and how they form part of a system to add value.

Value chain analysis will be used to analyse it.

PI 10% Value Chain

Partnership and

Cooperation Operation Monitoring Evaluating

% Cost

Very Important Important Important Important

50% 10% 20% 20%

Cost Driver

○ A good relationship with

PHE ONWJ ○ Entire operation

by PHE ONWJ ○ Changes in the value of oil

and gas production ○ Achievement of production targets in the field

○ A good relationship with

local government ○ The efficiency of operating

costs ○ Operational performance

achievement in the field

○ Representative Officer at

PHE ONWJ ○ Exchange rate changes

○ Changes in oil and gas prices

Link Between Activities

○ The management of the 10% PI operated by PHE ONWJ requires MUJ ONWJ to maintain good relations with stakeholders, both PHE ONWJ and the Regional Government.

○ In terms of direct coordination and monitoring, MUJ ONWJ plans to send a Representative Officer (RO) at PHE ONWJ, whose company will bear costs.

○ Although PHE ONWJ directly carries out oil and gas field operations, MUJ ONWJ has an indirect interest in being responsible for the ongoing operations in the region.

○ Several factors that affect the 10% PI income in ONWJ include changes in the value of oil and gas production, changes in the rupiah exchange rate, and oil and gas prices. This needs to be continuously monitored intensively.

Opportunities for Cost Reduction

○ The efficiency of the number of human resources placed in PHE ONWJ

○ Coordinate with City/Regency ROE in monitoring operations in the area so that cost-sharing occurs

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Supporting Energy Services Value Chain

Business Development

R&D - Investment and Partnership

Procurement and

Construction Commercialization Monitoring and Evaluation

% Cost

Very Important Very Important Very Important Important Important

25% 25% 25% 15% 10%

Cost Driver

Number of business potential that can be developed

Number of products R&D business potential feasibility

Availability of raw

materials ○

Pre-commercial preparation process

Monitoring process field review

○ Raw material prices

○ Work time

effectiveness ○ Operational

performance achievement in the field

○ The quantity and

quality of researchers ○ The quantity and

quality of workers

○ Tools and facility

availability ○ The value of the

project executed

○ Delivery of goods to

the job site

Link Between Activities

○ With the many potential businesses that can be developed, the demand for raw materials also increases. This, of course, will increase the company's costs.

○ The availability of researchers, tools, and facilities will accelerate the business development process. Of course, this will speed up business feasibility processing time, reduce costs, and increase revenue potential.

○ Most of the raw materials are imported products influenced by the rupiah exchange rate. If there is a change in the rupiah exchange rate, it will affect its costs.

○ The quantity and quality of workers significantly affect the effectiveness of the work. When work is carried out outside of work hours, it can cause decreased performance, increased costs, and reduced product quality.

Opportunities for Cost Reduction

○ Conduct project selection based on the priority scale of the feasibility study results.

○ Adjusting the number of researchers and their qualifications and supporting facilities related to the project.

○ Conduct training for workers to increase effectiveness and productivity at work.

2.3. SWOT Analysis

The SWOT analysis is a framework used to evaluate a company's competitive position, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The point of a SWOT analysis is to help the organization to develop a strong business strategy by considering all of strengths and weaknesses.

The following summarizes of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that gained form external and internal analysis as the industry key success factors:

No. Strengths Weaknesses

1 Strong capital capacity Don't have your own technology in business yet

2 Ownership of company assets Newly established company

3 Use of technology in HR management Lack of business portfolio 4 Pioneer of 10% PI implementation

5 100% shareholder Provincial Government 6 Have a strong network between ROE 7 Experienced workforce

No. Opportunity Threats

1 Provincial Government Assignments Limited period of 10% PI contract in WK ONWJ 2 Policy on Tax Treatment in Upstream Oil and

Gas Business Activities

Public and industry awareness about the benefits of using green energy

3 Local, Central, and World Government Policies in NRE

The impact of using fossil energy sources on the environment 4 Increased energy demand in West Java The impact of using batteries in NRE that causes waste 5 The addition of a new economic area in West

Java

SOE's dominance in energy management in West Java (example:

PERTAMINA and PGN)

6 NRE technology growth Private competitors who already have portfolios and experience

in similar industries

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3. Business Solution

Strategy formulation is the process of choosing the most suitable action for the realization of organizational goals and objectives to achieve the corporate vision. Formulated strategy for the business solution formula will be described more in this section by using EFAS and IFAS Analysis and the TOWS matrix.

3.1. Industry and Company Key Success Factor

Furthermore, the author can draw the main points for Industry Key Success Factor (IKSF) and Company Key Success Factor (CKSF). The IKSF and CKSF are included in the Competitive Profile Matrix (CPM). CPM is a tool that compares a company and its competitors and reveals strengths and weaknesses relative to competitors. Internal and external matrices are used to evaluate the company's internal and external environment. Focus Group Discussion in the management meeting determined the weight and rating for each internal and external factor.

Figure 2: Competitive Profile Matrix

The company is in quadrant VI, namely Growth and Build. The company has good internal capabilities and medium industry factors influence. So that the company can optimize the contribution of internal factors to develop.

3.2. TOWS Matrix

The SWOT analysis will be extending to the TOWS matrix where the strategy will be generated through each factor. TOWS matrix illustrates how the external factors facing a particular corporation can be matched with the company's strength and weaknesses to result in four sets of possible strategic alternatives. Basically, the TOWS matrix generates four alternative strategies, as follows:

Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities • Encouraging companies to carry out management consulting activities in the 10% PI process

• Encouraging the support capacity of the West Java Provincial Government to optimize the company's financial capabilities

• synergize with other ROE

• optimize the company's internal potential

• carry out business development in the NRE field

• Complete company legal documents

• Through Central and Regional Government regulations that give privileges to ROE, it can be the basis of encouragement for MUJ to be involved in energy sector business activities.

• Participate in the supply of energy in West Java from the smallest capacity to the largest capacity,

• Technology development within the company organization to capture business opportunities Threats • Company business development outside the 10%

PI

• Synergize with state-owned energy companies

or other private companies

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Strengths Weaknesses

• Through an assignment from the West Java Provincial Government, MUJ can provide cheaper alternative energy at a lower cost

• Through government assistance, encourage to socialize the benefits of using NRE in the community.

• Establish partnerships with companies that already have experience

3.3. Analysis of Business Solution

As a ROE that has been established for 7 (seven) years and has only been running its business for 2 (two) years since 2019, MUJ is still looking for a form of company to run its business.

Through the income obtained from the 10% PI, MUJ is still running a portfolio business in collaboration with strategic partners. One alternative business that MUJ can run is in the NRE sector. Waste to Energy is one of the business activities that MUJ can carry out in conjunction with the assignment plan from the West Java Provincial Government.

The waste problem is a common problem that needs joint solutions (government, community, and business entities) that are not burdensome, effective, and efficient. The West Java Provincial Government has established an integrated cross-district/city waste management in the Greater Cirebon Regional Waste Processing and Final Processing Site (TPPAS) as a solution to the regional waste problem. The waste originating from the three cities and regencies will be processed using Mechanical and Biological Treatment (MBT) technology which converts waste into Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF). RDF is used by cement factories as an alternative raw material to replace coal. The construction and management of TPPAS are planned to use the assignment scheme to the Regional Owned Enterprise (ROE). ROE will partner with technology support partners and funding to carry out the project. The assignment scheme to ROE is an acceleration of the process carried out. This study aimed to assess the financial feasibility of the Cirebon Raya TPPAS development project. This research emphasizes capital budgeting techniques to evaluate investment projects.

3.4. Financial Model 3.4.1. Key Assumption

The table below shows the critical assumptions used in this project:

Parameters Unit Value Parameters Unit Value

General Rate

Inflation Rate % 2,74% Tax Rate % 22,00%

Number of Days in a Year days 365,00 Provision Rate % 1,00%

Current Assets and Current Liabilities Short-Term Debt Interest Rate % 8,06%

Sales on Credit (percentage of Sales) % 50,00% Long-Term Debt Interest Rate % 10,75%

Purchasing (percentage of COGS) % 90,00% Long-Term Debt Tenor Years 20,00

Average Collection Period days 188,26

Average Age of Inventory days 3,51 Waste Treatment

Average Payment Period days 27,81 Quantity of MSW (average) ton/day 1.237

Accruals % 35,38% RDF Production Target % From

MSW 35,00%

Quantity of RDF Product (average) ton/day 433

Tipping Fee IDR/ton 325.000

RDF Price IDR/ton 386.000

(9)

3.4.2. CAPEX

The table below shows the Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) assumptions used in this project:

Parameters Unit Value

CAPEX

Mechanical and Electrical Equipment IDR 453.557.514.409

Civil Work IDR 105.611.100.000

Vehicle IDR 46.410.189.885

Land IDR 27.500.000.000

Intangibles IDR 39.669.525.380

Net Working Capital IDR 38.835.597.410

TOTAL IDR 711.583.927.084

3.4.3. OPEX

The table below shows the Operating Expenditure (OPEX) assumptions used in this project:

Parameters Unit Value

OPEX

Overhead Costs IDR/year 17.910.000.000

Fuel Costs IDR/year 16.756.262.752

Maintenance Costs IDR/year 17.808.706.074

Other Costs IDR/year 7.473.962.453

TOTAL IDR 59.948.931.279

3.4.4. Cost of Capital

The following table represents the assumptions and sources in calculating the cost of Capital:

Parameter Value Source

Unlevered Beta 0,81 Beta by Sectors, Aswath Damodaran (Waste Treatment) Risk Free Rate 6,95% IBPA 10 Years Government Bond Yield

Debt to Equity Ratio 233,33% Beta by Sectors, Aswath Damodaran (Waste Treatment) Levered Beta Project 2,28 Calculated

Total Equity Risk Premium 6,56% Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums, Aswath Damodaran (Indonesia)

So, that the obtained Cost of Equity is 21,57%.

3.4.5. Source of Fund

The total investment cost of the project is approximately IDR 733,20 billion, which includes predevelopment costs, construction costs and other fees such as financing fees. Construction costs assume to have contingency cost in-case of cost overruns during the construction phase of the project.

Source of Fund Weight Cost Value

Capital Structure

Long-Term Debt (after Tax) 70,00% 8,39% 513.307.950.952 Capital Contribution 30,00% 21,57% 219.989.121.836

So, the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) value for this project is 12,34%.

(10)

3.5. Capital Budgeting Analysis

The investment decision will be based on the required return criteria that have been stated on the investment policy. The investment should be profitable and gain a return since the decision has been made with the selected criteria.

The project investment analysis result as follows:

Investment Result

Unit Project Equity

NPV IDR 119.875.363.351,41 2.187.405.505,05

WACC: 12,34% Cost of Equity: 21,57%

IRR % 14,42% 21,74%

PP Years 7,85 5,79

PI 1,65 1,04

3.6. Risk Assessment

Figure 3: Sensitivity Analysis 131.59%

131.59%

-62.05%

38.78%

38.78%

-19.83%

-13.93%

-11.87%

-6.78%

0.00%

-131.59%

-131.59%

73.22%

-38.78%

-38.78%

19.83%

13.93%

11.02%

6.85%

0.00%

-150.00% -100.00% -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 100.00% 150.00%

Quantity Treatment Realization for Waste Tipping Fee per Unit Realization for Waste Long-Term Debt Interest Rate

Price per Unit Realization for RDF Quantity Sold Realization for RDF Fuel Cost

Overhead Cost Inflation Rate Debt Portion

Short-Term Debt Interest Rate

Project Sensitivity Swing for 20%

-20% Swing +20% Swing

(11)

Sensitivity analysis shows that the tipping fee and the amount of waste distributed to TPPAS are the most sensitive factors, with a swing of 131,59% when the parameter changes 20%. The tipping fee and the amount of waste distributed to TPPAS need to be confirmed with stakeholders through a cooperation agreement between local governments. Furthermore, the interest rate on long-term debt is a sensitive issue with a swing value of 62,05% and 73,22%.

This needs to be anticipated by providing funding options with optimal interest rates, including regional banks. In addition, the quantity of RDF production also needs to be considered because it has a high sensitivity value of 38,78%. This can be anticipated by selecting technology to produce the optimal amount of RDF. The price sensitivity value of RDF is also relatively high at 38,78%. An agreement with the off-taker regarding the selling price of RDF also needs to be agreed upon through long-term cooperation. Other parameters such as the portion of the debt, overhead costs, fuel costs, inflation rates, and short-term interest rates have a sensitivity value of less than 20% but need to be anticipated with mitigation. The following is a summary of the sensitivity analysis:

Parameter Value

(+20%) Value (- 20%)

Risk Treatment

1. Quantity Treatment

Realization for Waste 131,59% -131,59%

Ensuring the amount of waste to the Regional Government through an Agreement between the Regions 2. Tipping Fee per Unit

Realization for Waste 131,59% -131,59%

Providing the ability of the tipping fee value paid to the Regional Government through an Agreement between Regions 3. Long-Term Debt Interest

Rate -62,05% 73,22% Optimizing the interest rate value, one of which is collaborating with regional banks 4. Price per Unit Realization

for RDF 38,78% -38,78%

Ensuring the purchase price for RDF through a sale and purchase agreement with the offtaker

5. Quantity Sold Realization

for RDF 38,78% -38,78% Selection of appropriate technology to produce optimal RDF

6. Debt Portion -19,83% 19,83% Optimizing the portion of a debt that has a lower cost of debt

7. Fuel Cost -13,93% 13,93% Operational efficiency 8. Overhead Cost -11,87% 11,02% Operational efficiency

9. Inflation Rate -6,78% 6,85% - 10. Short-Term Debt Interest

Rate 0,00% 0,00% -

(12)

3.7. Investment Performance 3.7.1. Cash Flow

The cash flow projections for the entire concession period is shown in the table below:

3.7.2. Income Statement

The P / L projections for the whole concession period is shown below:

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Net Profit - (42.093.389.346,65) 24.064.097.186,20 42.299.122.211,07 45.068.432.313,02 46.743.866.971,78 48.506.588.869,69 50.365.890.823,37 52.332.093.685,16 54.416.658.058,77 56.632.308.062,66 Depreciation - 1.322.317.512,66 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 (Increase)/Decrease in Account Receivables - - (42.707.483.895,82) (2.513.745.009,63) (592.907.336,86) (588.935.304,25) (596.505.997,95) (604.174.012,03) (611.940.597,51) (619.807.021,54) (627.774.567,51) (Increase)/Decrease in Inventory - (137.207.925,45) (144.729.245,32) (7.727.467,78) (7.939.265,88) (8.156.869,05) (8.380.436,39) (8.610.131,36) (8.846.121,93) (9.088.580,64) (9.337.684,77) Increase/(Decrease) in Account Payables - 978.395.009,79 1.032.027.639,30 55.102.618,07 56.612.896,77 58.164.569,91 59.758.772,05 61.396.668,83 63.079.457,87 64.808.369,59 66.584.668,14 Increase/(Decrease) in Accruals - - 6.299.886.032,29 172.670.266,15 (4.181.682.414,62) 62.789.358,60 64.510.319,14 66.278.448,58 68.095.039,76 69.961.420,92 71.878.956,75 Total Cash Flow from Operating Activities - (39.929.884.749,64) 11.226.449.648,01 62.688.074.549,24 63.025.168.123,79 68.950.380.658,35 70.708.623.457,90 72.563.433.728,76 74.525.133.394,70 76.605.184.178,47 78.816.311.366,63 (Increase)/Decrease in Land (27.500.000.000,00) - - - - (Increase)/Decrease in Plant & Equipment - (619.449.698.142,29) (0,00) (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) (Increase)/Decrease in Intangibles (39.669.525.379,89) 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (Increase)/Decrease in Asset under Construction (117.161.289.884,55) 117.161.289.884,55 - - - -

Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities (184.330.815.264,44) (502.288.408.257,74) (0,00) (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) Increase/(Decrease) in Short-Term Debt - 39.729.131.261,22 12.492.242.694,12 (29.591.094.833,05) (22.630.279.122,29) - - - - Increase/(Decrease) in Current Portion of Long-Term Debt - 8.169.059.330,87 878.173.878,07 972.577.569,96 1.077.129.658,73 1.192.921.097,05 1.321.160.114,98 1.463.184.827,34 1.620.477.196,28 1.794.678.494,88 1.987.606.433,08 Increase/(Decrease) in Long-Term Debt 129.031.570.685,11 372.458.304.232,83 (9.047.233.208,94) (10.019.810.778,90) (11.096.940.437,64) (12.289.861.534,68) (13.611.021.649,66) (15.074.206.477,00) (16.694.683.673,28) (18.489.362.168,15) (20.476.968.601,23) Increase/(Decrease) in Common Stock 55.299.244.579,33 157.181.344.163,59 - - - - (Dividend Payment) - - - - Total Cash Flow from Financing Activities 184.330.815.264,44 577.537.838.988,52 4.323.183.363,25 (38.638.328.041,99) (32.650.089.901,20) (11.096.940.437,64) (12.289.861.534,68) (13.611.021.649,66) (15.074.206.477,00) (16.694.683.673,27) (18.489.362.168,15) Net Cash Flow - 35.319.545.981,14 15.549.633.011,25 24.049.746.507,24 30.375.078.222,60 57.853.440.220,72 58.418.761.923,22 58.952.412.079,10 59.450.926.917,71 59.910.500.505,19 60.326.949.198,48 Beginning Cash - - 35.319.545.981,14 50.869.178.992,39 74.918.925.499,63 105.294.003.722,23 163.147.443.942,95 221.566.205.866,17 280.518.617.945,27 339.969.544.862,98 399.880.045.368,17 Ending Cash - 35.319.545.981,14 50.869.178.992,39 74.918.925.499,63 105.294.003.722,23 163.147.443.942,95 221.566.205.866,17 280.518.617.945,27 339.969.544.862,98 399.880.045.368,17 460.206.994.566,65

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Net Profit 58.993.168.437,11 61.514.916.430,82 64.214.950.056,81 67.112.574.478,73 70.229.208.477,64 73.588.613.159,33 77.217.145.294,34 81.144.037.939,96 85.401.711.278,49 90.026.116.921,44

Depreciation 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36

(Increase)/Decrease in Account Receivables (635.844.535,35) (644.018.241,67) (652.297.020,01) (660.682.221,08) (669.175.212,91) (677.777.381,15) (686.490.129,24) (695.314.878,68) (704.253.069,23) (713.306.159,16) (Increase)/Decrease in Inventory (9.593.616,47) (9.856.562,86) (10.126.716,21) (10.404.274,05) (10.689.439,34) (10.982.420,56) (11.283.431,96) (11.592.693,61) (11.910.431,66) (12.236.878,43) Increase/(Decrease) in Account Payables 68.409.652,32 70.284.656,54 72.211.051,76 74.190.246,54 76.223.688,02 78.312.863,04 80.459.299,15 82.664.565,81 84.930.275,46 87.258.084,75 Increase/(Decrease) in Accruals 73.849.049,31 75.873.139,10 77.952.706,10 80.089.270,86 82.284.395,61 84.539.685,37 86.856.789,19 89.237.401,29 91.683.262,33 94.196.160,70 Total Cash Flow from Operating Activities 81.172.640.918,29 83.689.851.353,29 86.385.342.009,81 89.278.419.432,36 92.390.503.840,39 95.745.357.837,40 99.369.339.752,85 103.291.684.266,13 107.544.813.246,76 112.164.680.060,66 (Increase)/Decrease in Land - - - - - - - - (Increase)/Decrease in Plant & Equipment 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) (Increase)/Decrease in Intangibles (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) 0,00 0,00 0,00 (Increase)/Decrease in Asset under Construction - - - - - - - -

Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) Increase/(Decrease) in Short-Term Debt - - - - - - - - Increase/(Decrease) in Current Portion of Long-Term Debt 2.201.274.124,63 2.437.911.093,03 2.699.986.535,53 2.990.235.088,10 3.311.685.360,07 3.667.691.536,28 4.061.968.376,43 4.498.629.976,89 4.982.232.699,41 5.517.822.714,60 Increase/(Decrease) in Long-Term Debt (22.678.242.725,86) (25.116.153.818,89) (27.816.140.354,42) (30.806.375.442,52) (34.118.060.802,59) (37.785.752.338,87) (41.847.720.715,30) (46.346.350.692,19) (51.328.583.391,61) (56.846.406.106,20) Increase/(Decrease) in Common Stock - - - - - - - - (Dividend Payment) - - - - - - - - Total Cash Flow from Financing Activities (20.476.968.601,23) (22.678.242.725,86) (25.116.153.818,89) (27.816.140.354,42) (30.806.375.442,52) (34.118.060.802,59) (37.785.752.338,87) (41.847.720.715,30) (46.346.350.692,19) (51.328.583.391,61) Net Cash Flow 60.695.672.317,06 61.011.608.627,43 61.269.188.190,92 61.462.279.077,94 61.584.128.397,87 61.627.297.034,80 61.583.587.413,98 61.443.963.550,83 61.198.462.554,56 60.836.096.669,06 Beginning Cash 460.206.994.566,65 520.902.666.883,71 581.914.275.511,14 643.183.463.702,06 704.645.742.780,00 766.229.871.177,87 827.857.168.212,67 889.440.755.626,66 950.884.719.177,49 1.012.083.181.732,05 Ending Cash 520.902.666.883,71 581.914.275.511,14 643.183.463.702,06 704.645.742.780,00 766.229.871.177,87 827.857.168.212,67 889.440.755.626,66 950.884.719.177,49 1.012.083.181.732,05 1.072.919.278.401,11

2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Net Profit 90.290.548.126,63 100.538.917.978,37 101.241.538.202,17 101.930.791.490,80 102.605.892.090,50 103.266.027.320,05 103.910.356.763,40 104.538.011.439,32 105.148.092.947,38 105.739.672.589,58

Depreciation 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36

(Increase)/Decrease in Account Receivables (722.475.625,50) (731.762.964,23) (741.169.690,61) (750.697.339,35) (760.347.464,88) (770.121.641,64) (780.021.464,28) (790.048.547,98) (800.204.528,64) (810.491.063,24) (Increase)/Decrease in Inventory (12.572.272,60) (12.916.859,41) (13.270.890,82) (13.634.625,70) (14.008.329,99) (14.392.276,95) (14.786.747,30) (15.192.029,49) (15.608.419,84) (16.036.222,82) Increase/(Decrease) in Account Payables 89.649.695,75 92.106.857,16 94.631.365,61 97.225.066,99 99.889.857,77 102.627.686,39 105.440.554,73 108.330.519,49 111.299.693,78 114.350.248,61 Increase/(Decrease) in Accruals 96.777.933,77 99.430.469,31 102.155.706,80 104.955.638,90 107.832.312,86 110.787.832,06 113.824.357,54 116.944.109,55 120.149.369,20 123.442.480,13 Total Cash Flow from Operating Activities 112.424.579.789,42 122.668.427.412,56 123.366.536.624,51 124.051.292.163,00 124.721.910.397,61 125.377.580.851,28 126.017.465.395,45 126.640.697.422,26 127.246.380.993,24 127.833.589.963,62 (Increase)/Decrease in Land - - - - (Increase)/Decrease in Plant & Equipment 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 - 0,00 (Increase)/Decrease in Intangibles 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 - - - - (Increase)/Decrease in Asset under Construction - - - - Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 0,00 (0,00) 0,00 - 0,00 Increase/(Decrease) in Short-Term Debt - - - - Increase/(Decrease) in Current Portion of Long-Term Debt (56.846.406.106,20) (0,00) - - - - Increase/(Decrease) in Long-Term Debt (0,00) 0,00 - - - - Increase/(Decrease) in Common Stock - - - - (Dividend Payment) - - - - Total Cash Flow from Financing Activities (56.846.406.106,20) 0,00 - - - - - - - - Net Cash Flow 55.578.173.683,22 122.668.427.412,56 123.366.536.624,51 124.051.292.163,00 124.721.910.397,61 125.377.580.851,28 126.017.465.395,45 126.640.697.422,26 127.246.380.993,24 127.833.589.963,62

Beginning Cash 1.072.919.278.401,11 1.128.497.452.084,33 1.251.165.879.496,89 1.374.532.416.121,39 1.498.583.708.284,39 1.623.305.618.682,00 1.748.683.199.533,29 1.874.700.664.928,73 2.001.341.362.350,99 2.128.587.743.344,23

Ending Cash 1.128.497.452.084,33 1.251.165.879.496,89 1.374.532.416.121,39 1.498.583.708.284,39 1.623.305.618.682,00 1.748.683.199.533,29 1.874.700.664.928,73 2.001.341.362.350,99 2.128.587.743.344,23 2.256.421.333.307,85

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Net Sales - - 165.602.855.879,88 175.350.172.148,03 177.649.234.028,96 179.932.893.926,86 182.245.910.002,73 184.588.659.626,75 186.961.525.020,18 189.364.893.317,67 191.799.156.630,45 Cost of Goods Sold - 14.265.631.375,93 29.313.261.141,63 30.116.692.914,38 30.942.145.526,44 31.790.222.535,44 32.661.544.041,58 33.556.747.141,06 34.476.486.391,94 35.421.434.292,69 36.392.281.773,96 Gross Profit - (14.265.631.375,93) 136.289.594.738,25 145.233.479.233,65 146.707.088.502,52 148.142.671.391,42 149.584.365.961,15 151.031.912.485,69 152.485.038.628,24 153.943.459.024,98 155.406.874.856,49 G&A Expenses - 6.135.000.000,00 6.303.150.991,53 6.475.910.745,23 6.653.405.580,25 6.835.765.277,94 7.023.123.176,77 7.215.616.269,80 7.413.385.304,89 7.616.574.887,54 7.825.333.586,70 Maintenance Cost - 17.808.706.074,33 18.296.815.542,00 6.475.910.745,23 6.653.405.580,25 6.835.765.277,94 7.023.123.176,77 7.215.616.269,80 7.413.385.304,89 7.616.574.887,54 7.825.333.586,70 Depreciation & Amortization - 1.322.317.512,66 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 Interest Income - - - - - - - - - Others Cost - 7.473.962.452,75 7.678.812.362,62 7.889.276.896,03 8.105.509.941,26 8.327.669.604,42 8.555.918.325,05 8.790.422.994,94 9.031.355.080,11 9.278.890.746,21 9.533.210.987,33

Total Operating Profit - (39.531.654.962,92) 89.006.976.273,36 109.599.005.811,83 110.717.625.410,67 111.788.488.904,19 112.855.467.676,25 113.918.028.014,72 114.975.616.087,11 116.027.657.318,54 117.073.555.751,72 Interest Expenses - 2.561.734.383,72 58.155.569.624,39 55.369.361.951,48 52.937.583.983,72 51.860.454.324,98 50.667.533.227,94 49.346.373.112,96 47.883.188.285,62 46.262.711.089,34 44.468.032.594,47 Tax Expenses - - 6.787.309.462,77 11.930.521.649,28 12.711.609.113,93 13.184.167.607,42 13.681.345.578,63 14.205.764.078,39 14.760.334.116,33 15.348.288.170,42 15.973.215.094,60 Net Profit - (42.093.389.346,65) 24.064.097.186,20 42.299.122.211,07 45.068.432.313,02 46.743.866.971,78 48.506.588.869,69 50.365.890.823,37 52.332.093.685,16 54.416.658.058,77 56.632.308.062,66 Preferred Stock Dividend - - - - - - - - -

Earnings Available for Common Stockholders - (42.093.389.346,65) 24.064.097.186,20 42.299.122.211,07 45.068.432.313,02 46.743.866.971,78 48.506.588.869,69 50.365.890.823,37 52.332.093.685,16 54.416.658.058,77 56.632.308.062,66

(13)

3.7.3. Balance Sheet

The detailed balance sheet projections are shown in the table below:

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Net Sales 194.264.712.110,28 196.761.962.014,28 199.291.313.770,51 201.853.180.044,49 204.447.978.806,51 207.076.133.399,79 209.738.072.609,62 212.434.230.733,24 215.165.047.650,74 217.930.968.896,81 Cost of Goods Sold 37.389.738.703,73 38.414.534.406,41 39.467.418.196,04 40.549.159.924,26 41.660.550.543,14 42.802.402.683,53 43.975.551.249,29 45.180.854.027,68 46.419.192.316,63 47.691.471.569,09 Gross Profit 156.874.973.406,55 158.347.427.607,87 159.823.895.574,46 161.304.020.120,23 162.787.428.263,37 164.273.730.716,26 165.762.521.360,34 167.253.376.705,56 168.745.855.334,11 170.239.497.327,72

G&A Expenses 8.039.814.043,37 8.260.173.082,17 8.486.571.826,09 8.719.175.814,22 8.958.155.122,85 9.203.684.489,79 9.455.943.442,14 9.715.116.427,56 9.981.392.949,17 10.254.967.704,06 Maintenance Cost 8.039.814.043,37 8.260.173.082,17 8.486.571.826,09 8.719.175.814,22 8.958.155.122,85 9.203.684.489,79 9.455.943.442,14 9.715.116.427,56 9.981.392.949,17 10.254.967.704,06 Depreciation & Amortization 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 Interest Income - - - - - - - - -

Others Cost 9.794.501.758,30 10.062.954.110,73 10.338.764.332,64 10.622.134.092,00 10.913.270.584,21 11.212.386.683,56 11.519.701.098,91 11.835.438.533,61 12.159.829.849,76 12.493.112.237,04 Total Operating Profit 118.112.693.388,46 119.144.429.512,17 120.168.099.990,92 121.183.016.560,42 122.188.466.086,30 123.183.709.805,32 124.167.982.544,70 125.140.491.919,07 126.100.417.504,39 127.046.909.988,24

Interest Expenses 42.480.426.161,39 40.279.152.036,76 37.841.240.943,73 35.141.254.408,20 32.151.019.320,10 28.839.333.960,03 25.171.642.423,75 21.109.674.047,32 16.611.044.070,43 11.628.811.371,01 Tax Expenses 16.639.098.789,95 17.350.361.044,59 18.111.908.990,38 18.929.187.673,49 19.808.238.288,56 20.755.762.685,96 21.779.194.826,61 22.886.779.931,78 24.087.662.155,47 25.391.981.695,79 Net Profit 58.993.168.437,11 61.514.916.430,82 64.214.950.056,81 67.112.574.478,73 70.229.208.477,64 73.588.613.159,33 77.217.145.294,34 81.144.037.939,96 85.401.711.278,49 90.026.116.921,44

Preferred Stock Dividend - - - - - - - - Earnings Available for Common Stockholders 58.993.168.437,11 61.514.916.430,82 64.214.950.056,81 67.112.574.478,73 70.229.208.477,64 73.588.613.159,33 77.217.145.294,34 81.144.037.939,96 85.401.711.278,49 90.026.116.921,44

2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Net Sales 220.732.445.733,46 223.569.935.223,59 226.443.900.305,61 229.354.809.868,93 232.303.138.830,50 235.289.368.212,26 238.313.985.219,62 241.377.483.320,97 244.480.362.328,19 247.623.128.478,15 250.806.294.515,36 Cost of Goods Sold 48.998.622.055,10 50.341.599.541,97 51.721.385.993,14 53.138.990.286,19 54.595.448.950,45 56.091.826.924,99 57.629.218.337,20 59.208.747.302,85 60.831.568.747,99 62.498.869.253,45 64.211.867.922,43 Gross Profit 171.733.823.678,36 173.228.335.681,62 174.722.514.312,46 176.215.819.582,75 177.707.689.880,05 179.197.541.287,26 180.684.766.882,41 182.168.736.018,12 183.648.793.580,20 185.124.259.224,69 186.594.426.592,93 G&A Expenses 10.536.040.725,66 10.824.817.530,02 11.121.509.266,08 11.426.332.870,05 11.739.511.224,02 12.061.273.318,94 12.391.854.422,06 12.731.496.248,94 13.080.447.140,20 13.438.962.243,09 13.807.303.698,06 Maintenance Cost 10.536.040.725,66 10.824.817.530,02 11.121.509.266,08 11.426.332.870,05 11.739.511.224,02 12.061.273.318,94 12.391.854.422,06 12.731.496.248,94 13.080.447.140,20 13.438.962.243,09 13.807.303.698,06 Depreciation & Amortization 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36 22.682.651.931,36

Interest Income

Others Cost 12.835.529.386,17 13.187.331.667,03 13.548.776.311,75 13.920.127.602,83 14.301.657.066,33 14.693.643.670,43 15.096.374.029,41 15.510.142.613,18 15.935.251.962,67 16.372.012.910,96 16.820.744.810,59 Total Operating Profit 127.979.090.295,69 128.896.048.690,22 129.796.843.848,94 130.680.501.911,28 131.546.015.500,64 132.392.342.718,02 133.218.406.106,93 134.023.091.588,88 134.805.247.368,43 135.563.682.807,16 158.979.819.196,81 Interest Expenses 12.221.977.312,83 (0,00) - - - -

Tax Expenses 25.466.564.856,23 28.357.130.711,85 28.555.305.646,77 28.749.710.420,48 28.940.123.410,14 29.126.315.397,96 29.308.049.343,52 29.485.080.149,55 29.657.154.421,06 29.824.010.217,57 34.975.560.223,30 Net Profit 90.290.548.126,63 100.538.917.978,37 101.241.538.202,17 101.930.791.490,80 102.605.892.090,50 103.266.027.320,05 103.910.356.763,40 104.538.011.439,32 105.148.092.947,38 105.739.672.589,58 124.004.258.973,51 Preferred Stock Dividend - - - -

Earnings Available for Common Stockholders 90.290.548.126,63 100.538.917.978,37 101.241.538.202,17 101.930.791.490,80 102.605.892.090,50 103.266.027.320,05 103.910.356.763,40 104.538.011.439,32 105.148.092.947,38 105.739.672.589,58 124.004.258.973,51

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Cash 35.319.545.981,14 50.869.178.992,39 74.918.925.499,63 105.294.003.722,23 163.147.443.942,95 221.566.205.866,17 280.518.617.945,27 339.969.544.862,98 399.880.045.368,17 460.206.994.566,65 Account Receivables - - 42.707.483.895,82 45.221.228.905,45 45.814.136.242,31 46.403.071.546,56 46.999.577.544,52 47.603.751.556,54 48.215.692.154,06 48.835.499.175,59 49.463.273.743,10 Inventories - 137.207.925,45 281.937.170,77 289.664.638,55 297.603.904,43 305.760.773,48 314.141.209,86 322.751.341,23 331.597.463,16 340.686.043,79 350.023.728,56 Total Current Asset - 35.456.753.906,59 93.858.600.058,98 120.429.819.043,63 151.405.743.868,97 209.856.276.262,99 268.879.924.620,55 328.445.120.843,04 388.516.834.480,19 449.056.230.587,56 510.020.292.038,31 Land 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 Plant and Equipment, Net - 619.449.698.142,29 598.089.363.723,59 576.729.029.304,89 555.368.694.886,19 534.008.360.467,49 512.648.026.048,79 491.287.691.630,09 469.927.357.211,39 448.567.022.792,69 427.206.688.373,99 Intangibles, Net 39.669.525.379,89 38.347.207.867,23 37.024.890.354,56 35.702.572.841,90 34.380.255.329,24 33.057.937.816,58 31.735.620.303,91 30.413.302.791,25 29.090.985.278,59 27.768.667.765,92 26.446.350.253,26 Asset under Construction 117.161.289.884,55 - - - - - - - - - -

Total Fixed Asset 184.330.815.264,44 685.296.906.009,51 662.614.254.078,15 639.931.602.146,79 617.248.950.215,43 594.566.298.284,06 571.883.646.352,70 549.200.994.421,34 526.518.342.489,98 503.835.690.558,61 481.153.038.627,25 TOTAL ASSET 184.330.815.264,44 720.753.659.916,10 756.472.854.137,13 760.361.421.190,42 768.654.694.084,39 804.422.574.547,05 840.763.570.973,25 877.646.115.264,38 915.035.176.970,16 952.891.921.146,17 991.173.330.665,56 Account Payables - 978.395.009,79 2.010.422.649,09 2.065.525.267,16 2.122.138.163,93 2.180.302.733,84 2.240.061.505,89 2.301.458.174,72 2.364.537.632,59 2.429.346.002,18 2.495.930.670,32 Accruals - - 6.299.886.032,29 6.472.556.298,43 2.290.873.883,81 2.353.663.242,42 2.418.173.561,56 2.484.452.010,14 2.552.547.049,89 2.622.508.470,82 2.694.387.427,57 Short-Term Debt - 39.729.131.261,22 52.221.373.955,34 22.630.279.122,29

Current Portion of Long-Term Debt - 8.169.059.330,87 9.047.233.208,94 10.019.810.778,90 11.096.940.437,64 12.289.861.534,68 13.611.021.649,66 15.074.206.477,00 16.694.683.673,27 18.489.362.168,15 20.476.968.601,23 Total Current Liability - 48.876.585.601,89 69.578.915.845,66 41.188.171.466,79 15.509.952.485,38 16.823.827.510,94 18.269.256.717,11 19.860.116.661,86 21.611.768.355,76 23.541.216.641,15 25.667.286.699,11 Long-Term Debt 129.031.570.685,11 501.489.874.917,93 492.442.641.708,99 482.422.830.930,09 471.325.890.492,45 459.036.028.957,77 445.425.007.308,11 430.350.800.831,11 413.656.117.157,84 395.166.754.989,69 374.689.786.388,46 Capital Contribution 55.299.244.579,33 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 Retained Earnings - (42.093.389.346,65) (18.029.292.160,45) 24.269.830.050,62 69.338.262.363,64 116.082.129.335,42 164.588.718.205,11 214.954.609.028,48 267.286.702.713,64 321.703.360.772,41 378.335.668.835,07 Total Equity 55.299.244.579,33 170.387.199.396,28 194.451.296.582,47 236.750.418.793,55 281.818.851.106,57 328.562.718.078,34 377.069.306.948,03 427.435.197.771,40 479.767.291.456,56 534.183.949.515,33 590.816.257.577,99 TOTAL LIABILITY AND EQUITY 184.330.815.264,44 720.753.659.916,10 756.472.854.137,13 760.361.421.190,42 768.654.694.084,39 804.422.574.547,05 840.763.570.973,25 877.646.115.264,38 915.035.176.970,16 952.891.921.146,17 991.173.330.665,56

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Cash 520.902.666.883,71 581.914.275.511,14 643.183.463.702,06 704.645.742.780,00 766.229.871.177,87 827.857.168.212,67 889.440.755.626,66 950.884.719.177,49 1.012.083.181.732,05 1.072.919.278.401,11 Account Receivables 50.099.118.278,45 50.743.136.520,12 51.395.433.540,13 52.056.115.761,21 52.725.290.974,12 53.403.068.355,26 54.089.558.484,50 54.784.873.363,18 55.489.126.432,41 56.202.432.591,57 Inventories 359.617.345,03 369.473.907,89 379.600.624,10 390.004.898,15 400.694.337,49 411.676.758,05 422.960.190,01 434.552.883,62 446.463.315,29 458.700.193,71 Total Current Asset 571.361.402.507,19 633.026.885.939,14 694.958.497.866,29 757.091.863.439,36 819.355.856.489,47 881.671.913.325,98 943.953.274.301,16 1.006.104.145.424,29 1.068.018.771.479,74 1.129.580.411.186,39 Land 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 Plant and Equipment, Net 405.846.353.955,29 384.486.019.536,59 363.125.685.117,89 341.765.350.699,19 320.405.016.280,49 299.044.681.861,79 277.684.347.443,09 256.324.013.024,39 234.963.678.605,69 213.603.344.187,00 Intangibles, Net 25.124.032.740,60 23.801.715.227,93 22.479.397.715,27 21.157.080.202,61 19.834.762.689,95 18.512.445.177,28 17.190.127.664,62 15.867.810.151,96 14.545.492.639,29 13.223.175.126,63 Asset under Construction - - - - - - - - - -

Total Fixed Asset 458.470.386.695,89 435.787.734.764,53 413.105.082.833,16 390.422.430.901,80 367.739.778.970,44 345.057.127.039,08 322.374.475.107,71 299.691.823.176,35 277.009.171.244,99 254.326.519.313,63 TOTAL ASSET 1.029.831.789.203,08 1.068.814.620.703,67 1.108.063.580.699,45 1.147.514.294.341,16 1.187.095.635.459,91 1.226.729.040.365,06 1.266.327.749.408,88 1.305.795.968.600,64 1.345.027.942.724,73 1.383.906.930.500,01 Account Payables 2.564.340.322,64 2.634.624.979,18 2.706.836.030,94 2.781.026.277,47 2.857.249.965,50 2.935.562.828,53 3.016.022.127,69 3.098.686.693,49 3.183.616.968,95 3.270.875.053,71 Accruals 2.768.236.476,87 2.844.109.615,97 2.922.062.322,07 3.002.151.592,94 3.084.435.988,54 3.168.975.673,92 3.255.832.463,11 3.345.069.864,40 3.436.753.126,73 3.530.949.287,43 Short-Term Debt

Current Portion of Long-Term Debt 22.678.242.725,86 25.116.153.818,89 27.816.140.354,42 30.806.375.442,52 34.118.060.802,59 37.785.752.338,87 41.847.720.715,30 46.346.350.692,19 51.328.583.391,61 56.846.406.106,20 Total Current Liability 28.010.819.525,37 30.594.888.414,04 33.445.038.707,43 36.589.553.312,93 40.059.746.756,63 43.890.290.841,32 48.119.575.306,10 52.790.107.250,09 57.948.953.487,29 63.648.230.447,34 Long-Term Debt 352.011.543.662,60 326.895.389.843,71 299.079.249.489,29 268.272.874.046,77 234.154.813.244,17 196.369.060.905,30 154.521.340.190,00 108.174.989.497,81 56.846.406.106,20 (0,00) Capital Contribution 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 Retained Earnings 437.328.837.272,18 498.843.753.703,00 563.058.703.759,81 630.171.278.238,54 700.400.486.716,18 773.989.099.875,51 851.206.245.169,85 932.350.283.109,82 1.017.751.994.388,31 1.107.778.111.309,75 Total Equity 649.809.426.015,11 711.324.342.445,92 775.539.292.502,73 842.651.866.981,47 912.881.075.459,10 986.469.688.618,43 1.063.686.833.912,78 1.144.830.871.852,74 1.230.232.583.131,23 1.320.258.700.052,67 TOTAL LIABILITY AND EQUITY 1.029.831.789.203,08 1.068.814.620.703,67 1.108.063.580.699,45 1.147.514.294.341,16 1.187.095.635.459,91 1.226.729.040.365,06 1.266.327.749.408,88 1.305.795.968.600,64 1.345.027.942.724,73 1.383.906.930.500,01

2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Cash 1.128.497.452.084,33 1.251.165.879.496,89 1.374.532.416.121,39 1.498.583.708.284,39 1.623.305.618.682,00 1.748.683.199.533,29 1.874.700.664.928,73 2.001.341.362.350,99 2.128.587.743.344,23 2.256.421.333.307,85 Account Receivables 56.924.908.217,06 57.656.671.181,30 58.397.840.871,91 59.148.538.211,26 59.908.885.676,15 60.679.007.317,79 61.459.028.782,07 62.249.077.330,05 63.049.281.858,69 63.859.772.921,93 Inventories 471.272.466,31 484.189.325,72 497.460.216,54 511.094.842,24 525.103.172,23 539.495.449,18 554.282.196,48 569.474.225,97 585.082.645,82 601.118.868,64 Total Current Asset 1.185.893.632.767,70 1.309.306.740.003,91 1.433.427.717.209,85 1.558.243.341.337,90 1.683.739.607.530,38 1.809.901.702.300,25 1.936.713.975.907,28 2.064.159.913.907,01 2.192.222.107.848,73 2.320.882.225.098,42 Land 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 27.500.000.000,00 Plant and Equipment, Net 192.243.009.768,30 170.882.675.349,60 149.522.340.930,90 128.162.006.512,20 106.801.672.093,50 85.441.337.674,80 64.081.003.256,10 42.720.668.837,40 21.360.334.418,70 (0,00) Intangibles, Net 11.900.857.613,97 10.578.540.101,30 9.256.222.588,64 7.933.905.075,98 6.611.587.563,32 5.289.270.050,65 3.966.952.537,99 2.644.635.025,33 1.322.317.512,66 0,00 Asset under Construction - - - - - - - -

Total Fixed Asset 231.643.867.382,26 208.961.215.450,90 186.278.563.519,54 163.595.911.588,18 140.913.259.656,81 118.230.607.725,45 95.547.955.794,09 72.865.303.862,73 50.182.651.931,36 27.500.000.000,00 TOTAL ASSET 1.417.537.500.149,96 1.518.267.955.454,81 1.619.706.280.729,39 1.721.839.252.926,07 1.824.652.867.187,19 1.928.132.310.025,70 2.032.261.931.701,37 2.137.025.217.769,73 2.242.404.759.780,09 2.348.382.225.098,42 Account Payables 3.360.524.749,46 3.452.631.606,62 3.547.262.972,23 3.644.488.039,22 3.744.377.896,99 3.847.005.583,38 3.952.446.138,11 4.060.776.657,60 4.172.076.351,38 4.286.426.599,98 Accruals 3.627.727.221,21 3.727.157.690,52 3.829.313.397,32 3.934.269.036,22 4.042.101.349,07 4.152.889.181,13 4.266.713.538,67 4.383.657.648,22 4.503.807.017,42 4.627.249.497,56 Short-Term Debt

Current Portion of Long-Term Debt 0,00 - - - - - - - Total Current Liability 6.988.251.970,67 7.179.789.297,14 7.376.576.369,55 7.578.757.075,44 7.786.479.246,06 7.999.894.764,51 8.219.159.676,78 8.444.434.305,82 8.675.883.368,80 8.913.676.097,54 Long-Term Debt (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) (0,00) Capital Contribution 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 212.480.588.742,92 Retained Earnings 1.198.068.659.436,37 1.298.607.577.414,74 1.399.849.115.616,91 1.501.779.907.107,71 1.604.385.799.198,21 1.707.651.826.518,26 1.811.562.183.281,67 1.916.100.194.720,99 2.021.248.287.668,37 2.126.987.960.257,95 Total Equity 1.410.549.248.179,30 1.511.088.166.157,67 1.612.329.704.359,84 1.714.260.495.850,64 1.816.866.387.941,14 1.920.132.415.261,19 2.024.042.772.024,59 2.128.580.783.463,92 2.233.728.876.411,29 2.339.468.549.000,88 TOTAL LIABILITY AND EQUITY 1.417.537.500.149,96 1.518.267.955.454,81 1.619.706.280.729,39 1.721.839.252.926,07 1.824.652.867.187,19 1.928.132.310.025,70 2.032.261.931.701,37 2.137.025.217.769,73 2.242.404.759.780,09 2.348.382.225.098,42

(14)

4. Conclusion

By the equity and project scheme, the project has a positive NPV, the payback period is shorter than the project period of 30 years, IRR is higher than the WACC and Cost of Equity, and the PI is greater than 1. This project is feasible to run if the assumptions used in this study meet the minimum value or are not less than the value described.

Based on the sensitivity analysis, there are 5 (five) parameters have the most influence on changes in NPV, namely quantity of RDF, RDF price, tipping fee, waste quantity, and long- term debt interest rate. Quantity MSW and tip-ping fee are the most influential parameters on NPV. JCV can avoid this risk by confirming c

Referensi

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