China And East Asian Security in the post - cold war era

F Int Pnnrmg I C~IUWII P~rruma, 1999

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Kertas Kadangkala

Bil. 1

Occasional Paper No.1

Editor

Mohd Sarim Haji Mustajab

The Author :

Lai Yew Meng Is a lecturer in Contemporary Malaysia and

International Issues at the Centre for the Promotion of Knowledge

and

Language Learning. Universiti Malaysia Sabah. He holds a

Master's degree (M.A.) in International Political Economy from

the University of Warwick

and

a Bachelor of Arts (B.A.) in Political

Science from

the

National University

of

Malaysia.

Kerta.s

Kadangkala

Bil. 1 Occasional Paper No.1

CHINA AND EAST ASIAN SECURITY

IN THE POST -COLD WAR ERA

Kertas Kadangkala Bil. 1 Occasional Paper No.1

...

CHINA AND EAST ASIAN SECURITY

IN THE POST -COLD WAR ERA

LAIYEWMENG

Pusat Penataran fimu dan Bahasa

Centre for the Promotion of Knowledge and Language Learning

UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SABAH

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ClDNA AND ITS lAST ASIAN NEIGHBOURS

PREFACE

In the uncertain and volatile post-Cold War environment, the People's Republic of China (PRC) looms large In the security calculations of all of the East Asia regional actors.

Although the end of the Cold War brought fundamental shifts to the region, it has not altered the central role of China in the East Asian security architecture. Being a resident power with an Immense population, central geopolitical location, regional ambitions and vast economic and military potentials, China remains a major force affecting regional security. As China consolidates Its ·comprehensive-national-power", characterised by its burgeoning economy and defence budget, observers perceive that China could become East Asia's biggest security challenge in the coming millennium. This perception has been compounded by

Its

unpredictable behaviour, its Increasing assertiveness In foreign relations and

Its

blatant pursuit of disruptive agendas In light of growing regional Interdependence. The conjunction of its unpredictability and

Its

vast potential power has incurred a sense of uneasy ambivalence regarding China's emerging role In post-Cold War East Asia. The central theme of this paper focuses on China's pivotal role in post-Cold War regional security, highlighting its potential as a source of both security and insecurity. It analyses the·China Threar notion, Identifying the disturbing symptoms In contemporary Chinese foreign and defence policies,

Its

military build-up, and other Chinese-related security Issues which justify this provocative notion. It also exposes the Inherent weakness of the logic of interdependence in constraining and moderating Chinese behaviour, particularly on Issues conceming Chinese sovereignty. Furthermore, the paper emphasises China's inclination towards balance-of-power politics where its seeks to develop

Its

relative power vis-a-vis other regional players In order to be competitive, if not dominant In

the

evolving regional power-structure. China's regional relations In the 1990s Illustrate its unpredictable behaviour where its integrative policies of promoting peace and stability have been contradicted by

the

simultaneous pursuit of Its disruptive policy-goals In the region. Although Beijing desires to strengthen its diplomatic and economic relations with regional states, the People's Uberation Army's provocative defence policy and build- up, coupled with China's involvement In

the

region's most contentious security issues and its propensity to use force to facilitate its irredentist agenda, have undermined Its broader regional goals. Apart from exacerbating

the

·China Threar perception, China's growing economy and defence budget have equally raised concems as to whether a strong China would manipulate Its new-found power to reassert

Its

regional hegemonic aspirations.

Moreover,

its

recent

actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Illustrate its propensity to forego the benefits of deepening economic Interdependence with regional states to further its Irredentist goals. Based on contemporary developments, this paper suggests that China will be a major force In determining East Asia's security environment for the foreseeable future. China wiD become

the

key to regional stability if It remains dedicated to pursuing Integrative policies and maintaining a positive security role complementary to regional Interest.. Conversely, China

wi"

continue to pose a security threat to East Asia If it persist with Its be"lgerent attitude and its destabllising agendas. How this contradictory stance plays Itself out win have

a

direct bearing on the region's future predicament. Similarty, Beijing's regional bilateral and multilateral relations will carry corresponding implications to East Asian aecurity In

the

coming decades.

ACKN~DGEMENTS

. First and foremost, I thank GOD Almighty for his blessings and guidance throughout the writing of this paper.

Next, I would Uke

to

express

my

deepest gratitude

to

the following people and Institutions that have contributed significantly to the accomplishment and publication

of

this work.

My

mentor, Dr. Peter Ferdinand

of

the University of Warwick, England,

for

his insights and suggestions which ware vitaf In Improving

my

Ideas, perspectives and writing.

Prof. Dr.

P. Ramasamy of the National University

of

Malaysia (UKM'sla) who provided Invaluable comments which were no less crucfal In helping draw attention to and Improve on several points I had made In

my

^draft.

My

parents,

for

their love and encouragement. I owe an enormous debt

to

them. Most

of

all, to my wife, Maureen, whose love, understanding and emotional support kept me going during the crucial stages of this work.

I am grateful to En. Mustapha Abdul Mutallb and En. Ismail Ibrahim of the Unlversltl Malaysia Sabah for their expertise In preparing the maps and graphic designs, respectively. My gratitude also goes

to

my immediate superiors, Prof.

Mmet

Adam and Prof. Mohd. Sarim HJ. Mustajab of the Centre for the Promotion of Knowledge and Language Learning, Unlversltl Malaysia

Sabah,

for their advice and encouragement.

Finally, I am Indebted

to

the Centre

for

the Promotion

of

Knowledge and Language Learning (PPIB), Unlversltl Malaysia Sabeh

for

making aR this possible.

LalYewMeng

APEC ARF ASEAN AWACS BOP CBM CCP CIA CIS CSCAP

DMZ

EAEC EAEG EC FDI GATT GOP IAEA IISS IMF KMT MFN MTCR NIE NPT PLA PLAAF PLAN PRC R&D

RMA

RRU SDF SEA SEZ SIPRI SOE UNDP UNSC US USSR

WTO

ABBREVIATIONS

Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation ASEAN Regional Forum

Association of Southeast Asian Nations Air-bome Warning and Control Systems Balance-of-Power

Confidence-building Measure Chinese Communist Party Central Intelligence Agency

Commonwealth of Independent States

Council for Security Co-operation In the Asia Pacific Demilitarised Zone

East Asian Economic Caucus East Asian Economic Group European Community Foreign Direct Investment

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade Gross Domestic Product

International Atomic Energy Agency InternationallnstlMe for StrategiC Studies International Monetary Fund

Kuomlntang (Nationalist Party of China) Most Favoured Nation

Missile Technology Control Regime Newly Industrialised Economy Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty People's liberation Army

People's liberation Army Air Force People's liberation Army Navy People's Republic of China Research and Development Revolution In Military Affairs Rapid Reaction Unit Selt Defence Force Southeast Asia

Special Economic Zone

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute State-owned Enterprise

United Nation Development Programme United Nation Security Council

United States of America

Union of Soviet Socialist Republic World Trade Organisation

iii

Appendix 1 Appendix 2a Appendlx2b Appendlx3a Appendlx3b Appendix"

Appendix5a Appendlx5b Appendix6a Appendlx6b Appendix 7 Appendix 8 Appendix 9

APPENDIXES

Countries as a percentage of East Asia Asian 011 ProductIon, Consumption and Imports Asian Olllmportl

East Asia's Rising Defence Budgets (1990-1996) Defence Expenditure Trends In the

AsJa..Paciftc

Region China', Major Trading Partner, 1994 (unit: USS million)

China's Recent Acquisitions of Foreign Weapons and Technology MaJor Chinese Weapons Programmes Incorpotating Foreign Technology In 1997

Military

expenditure of Selected Asia-Pacific Nations, 1986.1990 and 1995 In USS at 1990 Prtces and Exchange Rates

Estimated Real Chinese

Military

Expenditure, 1986-1995

China's TerrltorIaC Claims In the East

and South

China Seas (Map) Anns Deliveries

to

China. 1987-1996

(constant

1995 USSm)

The

South China Sea Disputes (Map)

) ' ,

Iv

CONTENTS

Preface I

Acknowledgements Ii

Abbreviations ill

Ust of Appendixes Iv

Contents v

INTRODUCTION

1

CHAPTER

1

CHINA AND THE COLD WAR IN EAST ASIA

9

1.1

Regional Security Environment during the Cold War

9 1.2

China and the Cold War Balance of Power in East Asia

10 1.3

The Impact of Chinese Balance of Power Politics on

12

East Asian Security In the Cold War Era

CHAPTER

2

CHINA AND REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE

16

POST -COLD WAR ERA

2.1

East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era:

16

Uncertainties of Transition

2.2

China and the post-Cold War Balance of Power

18 2.3

China's Security Perceptions and National Interests

19 2.4

Restructuring of Foreign and Defence Policies

22 2.5

China's Challenge to East Asian Security: Perceived

25

Chinese Threats

2.6

Economic Interdependence: A Constraint to Chinese

32

External Behaviour?

2.7

Conclusion

35

CHAPTER

3

CHINA'S REGIONAL RELATIONS IN THE POST-

37

COLD WAR ERA: IMPACT ON SECURITY

3.1

Sino-Japanese Relations

37

3.2

Sino-Russian Relations

41

3.3

China and the Two Koreas

44

3.4

China and the Taiwan Question

47

3.5

China and the United States

51

3.6

China and Southeast Asia

55

3.7

Conclusion

60

CONCLUSION: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT

61

APPENDIXES

66

BIBLIOGRAPHY 76

v