Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE
Roxas Boulevard Corner Pablo Ocampo, Sr. Street Manila 1004
May 14, 2021
PRESS RELEASE
REF: USEC GIL BELTRAN Chief Economist
Department of Finance Email: [email protected]
DOF Bulletin on 2021-Q1 Economic Performance
· Year-on-year, the country’s economic output declined by nearly 4.2% in the first quarter of 2021. This rate of contraction is greater than the decline of 0.73% in the same quarter of last year but lesser than the contraction of 8.26% in the final quarter of 2020.
· From the expenditure side, household final consumption declined by 4.84%, capital formation by nearly 18.3%, and exports, by nearly 9%. Government consumption, however, increased by more than 16%, helping temper the overall decline in output. Government’s construction activities also rose to 26.2% as the infrastructure program gained steam again.
· From the supply side, all the three industrial sectors posted declines. Agricultural output declined by 1.22%; industry, by 4.73%, and; services, by 4.42%. Manufacturing finally managed to post positive growth of nearly 0.5% after four quarters of decline. The utilities sub-sector also continued to post positive growth (1.89%) along with financial services (5.18%) and information and communication (6.34%).
DOF View
· Quarter-to-quarter, the economy grew by 0.26% in the first quarter from last year’s final quarter, indicating recovery.
Recovery, however, continues to be threatened by risks posed by the virus. This health issue should be effectively addressed and it is encouraging that the much-needed vaccines have started arriving.
Table 1 Quarter-to-Quarter Growth Rates (%) Based on Seasonally-Adjusted Series
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Account 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing - 0.48 0.44 - 0.17 - 2.46 1.23 Industry - 6.50 - 17.53 8.44 6.69 - 0.42 Services - 3.86 - 16.03 9.67 3.48 0.44 GDP - 4.35 - 14.91 8.22 3.79 0.26 Household Consumption - 3.78 - 14.33 5.79 0.38 - 2.02
GNI - 2.08 - 15.04 9.04 0.95 2.25
Source: PSA
Table 2 Economic Growth and Sources of Growth by Expenditure
Expenditure Growth (%) Contribution to GDP Growth (ppts)
2020Q1 2020Q4 2021Q1 2020Q1 2020Q4 2021Q1
Household consumption 0.17 - 7.26 - 4.84 0.13 - 5.43 - 3.62 Government consumption 7.00 5.07 16.07 0.82 0.58 2.03 Gross capital formation - 12.08 - 32.19 - 18.29 - 3.06 - 8.98 - 4.10
Gross fixed capital formation - 1.96 - 30.01 - 20.23 - 0.49 - 8.23 - 4.99 Construction - 1.99 - 36.02 - 27.21 - 0.29 - 6.29 - 3.86 General government - 0.70 - 17.69 26.20 - 0.02 - 0.84 0.71 Corporations - 2.86 - 50.65 - 45.00 - 0.22 - 3.86 - 3.35 Households - 1.20 - 31.22 - 30.07 - 0.05 - 1.59 - 1.22 Durable equipment - 2.33 - 24.51 - 13.81 - 0.18 - 1.69 - 1.07 Exports of goods and services - 4.37 - 10.24 - 8.98 - 1.36 - 2.53 - 2.70 Exports of goods - 2.60 - 0.10 2.41 - 0.41 - 0.02 0.37 Exports of services - 6.17 - 24.95 - 21.03 - 0.95 - 2.52 - 3.07 Less : Imports of goods and services - 7.36 - 20.24 - 8.28 3.15 7.69 3.30
Imports of goods - 8.46 - 13.33 - 1.56 2.89 3.86 0.49 Imports of services - 3.03 - 42.41 - 33.24 0.26 3.83 2.81 Gross Domestic Product - 0.73 - 8.26 - 4.19 - 0.73 - 8.26 - 4.19 Net primary income from the rest of the world - 9.35 - 55.93 - 75.79
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Gross National Income - 1.61 - 12.11 - 10.93
Source of Basic Data: PSA
Table 3 Economic Growth and Sources of Growth by Sector
Industrial Sector Growth (%) Contribution to GDP Growth (ppts)
2020Q1 2020Q4 2021Q1 2020Q1 2020Q4 2021Q1
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing - 0.26 - 2.52 - 1.22 - 0.03 - 0.26 - 0.12 Industry - 2.50 - 10.56 - 4.73 - 0.77 - 3.33 - 1.43 Mining and quarrying - 21.27 - 16.38 - 0.95 - 0.22 - 0.12 - 0.01 Manufacturing - 3.32 - 4.87 0.46 - 0.68 - 0.95 0.09 Utilities 4.89 0.61 1.89 0.14 0.02 0.06 Construction - 0.26 - 26.85 - 24.17 - 0.02 - 2.27 - 1.57 Services 0.10 - 8.02 - 4.42 0.06 - 4.68 - 2.64
Wholesale and retail trade 1.39 - 3.99 - 3.88 0.22 - 0.74 - 0.63 Transportation and storage - 11.41 - 20.07 - 18.80 - 0.48 - 0.66 - 0.71 Accommodation & food service activities - 15.87 - 45.58 - 20.56 - 0.38 - 0.99 - 0.42 Information and communication 4.74 1.89 6.34 0.14 0.06 0.20 Financial and insurance activities 8.85 4.28 5.18 0.81 0.34 0.52 Real estate and ownership of dwellings - 2.88 - 14.95 - 13.17 - 0.19 - 0.84 - 0.85 Professional and business services - 2.46 - 8.90 - 6.53 - 0.14 - 0.52 - 0.36 Public administration 5.53 1.34 7.49 0.22 0.06 0.32 Education 1.31 - 12.27 - 1.00 0.05 - 0.42 - 0.04 Human health and social work activities 2.98 1.54 11.75 0.05 0.02 0.21 Other services - 9.82 - 43.44 - 38.00 - 0.25 - 1.00 - 0.88 Gross Domestic Product - 0.73 - 8.26 - 4.19 - 0.73 - 8.26 - 4.19 Net primary income from Abroad - 9.35 - 55.93 - 75.79
Gross National Income - 1.61 - 12.11 - 10.93 Source of Basic Data: PSA
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