DOF Economic Bulletin on Inflation Outlook for September 2018
·
In September, month-on-month (MOM) price increase decelerated from
0.9% in August to 0.6%. September year-on-year (YOY) inflation is seen at 6.4%, unchanged from August.
·
Price increases in food items are the main drivers of inflation. The decline
in power rates, however, moderated the inflationary pressure from non-food items.
Table 1 Inflation and Contribution to Inflation by Commodity
Inflation Rate (%) Contribution to Inflation Month-on-Month (%) Commodity Group
Sep- 17
Aug- 18
Sep- 18
Sep- 17
Aug- 18
Sep- 18
Jul- 18
Aug- 18
Sep- 18 All items
3.04 6.38 6.38
3.10 6.38
6.37 0.51
0.85 0.63 Food and non-alcoholic
beverages
3.29
8.48
9.28
1.30
3.38
3.70
0.90
1.62
1.35 Rice
0.69
7.03
10.00
0.07
0.71
1.00
0.57
2.12
2.86 Meat
4.10
7.58
8.24
0.26
0.49
0.52
0.91
1.06
0.09 Fish
9.39
12.39
12.27
0.54
0.75
0.75
0.08
1.69
0.74 Vegetables
5.18
19.21
19.40
0.16
0.58
0.60
5.56
4.93
4.29 Non-alcoholic beverages
1.13
11.55
11.93
0.03
0.32
0.33
0.68
0.59
0.44 Alcoholic beverages and
Tobacco
6.76
21.57
21.94
0.15
0.48
0.49
1.06
0.37
0.49 Alcoholic Beverages
2.96
6.54
6.66
0.02
0.05
0.05
0.59
0.37
0.34 Tobacco
8.84
29.14
29.55
0.12
0.43
0.44
1.24
0.39
0.54 NON-FOOD
2.84
4.18
3.73
2.70
2.42
2.16
0.18
0.27
0.21 Clothing and footwear
2.13
2.35
2.40
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.34
0.09
0.14 Housing, Utilities & Fuels
3.18
5.49
4.35
0.67
1.15
0.92
0.91
0.18
0.23 Housing Rent
1.72
3.14
2.78
0.23
0.41
0.36
0.44
0.26
0.28 Electricity, Gas & Other
Fuels
6.60
11.36
8.13
0.41
0.71
0.52
1.66
0.48
(0.11) Furnishings, household
equipment
2.07
3.45
3.48
0.06
0.10
0.25
0.60
0.26
0.21 Health
2.36
4.00
4.08
0.09
0.16
0.16
1.21
0.26
0.17 Transport
5.98
7.82
7.35
0.42
0.56
0.53
0.67
0.76
0.38 Operation of Personal
Transport
12.40
22.57
21.29
0.21
0.41
0.40
(0.80)
1.20
1.24 Transport Services
4.52
2.83
2.61
0.20
0.13
0.12
1.31
0.74
0.07 Communication
0.20
0.40
0.39
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.10
-
(0.01) Recreation and Culture
1.37
2.43
2.63
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.27
1.52
0.10 Education
2.13
(3.83)
(4.03)
0.08
(0.14)
(0.14)
(7.39)
0.09
(0.20) Restaurants & Misc.
Services
1.95
4.02
3.75
0.24
0.50
0.46
0.35
0.35
0.10 Catering
1.87
4.70
4.51
0.15
0.37
0.35
0.35
0.26
0.19
Table 2 Prices of Selected Commodities
Page 2 of 2 Sep-17 Aug-18 Sep-18
Meralco rate per kWH for 200KW/mo consumption 9.25 10.22 10.07 Meralco Generation Charge per kWH 4.54 5.35 5.27 Meralco Transmission Charge per kWH 0.73 0.70 0.67
Diesel (PHP/litre), NCR 33.65 46.80 48.55
Gasoline, RON 95 (PHP/litre), NCR 46.85 58.55 59.82 Sources of basic data: Meralco, DOE
