DOF Economic Bulletin - July Inflation
The inflation forecast for July is 5.3% YOY (year-on-year) or 0.17% MOM (month-on-month). Note that MOM declined from 0.6% in June to 0.17% in July.
By commodity group, MOM inflation for both food and non-food items declined with food declining to 0.04% from 0.74%
and non-food declining to 0.22% from 0.45%.
The only items which deviated from the trend are five items---tobacco which accelerated to 1.23%, housing, utilities and fuels which rose by 0.43% on account of the lagged impact of petroleum products on electricity prices, health which rose by 0.26% and 2 other items which rose slightly.
Table 1 Inflation Forecast by Commodity
Inflation Rate (%) Contribution to Inflation Month-on-Month (%)
Commodity Group Jul-17 Jun-18 Jul-18 Jul-17 Jun-18 Jul-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18Jun-18Jul-18 All items 2.40 5.23 5.31 2.34 5.21 5.35 0.70 0.52 0.52 - 0.60 0.17 Food and non-alcoholic
beverages 2.76 6.07 6.12 1.10 2.42 2.43 0.50 0.50 0.41 (0.08) 0.74 0.04 Rice 0.96 4.67 4.80 0.10 0.47 0.48 1.28 0.76 0.66 0.12 0.55 0.39 Fish 7.64 11.20 9.13 0.44 0.68 0.55 (0.15) - 0.92 (1.30) 0.54 (1.94) Vegetables (0.87) 8.63 11.85 (0.03) 0.26 0.35 (2.32) (2.01) (0.95) (0.74) 3.36 1.75 Non-alcoholic beverages 0.94 10.56 10.82 0.03 0.29 0.30 1.37 3.16 2.19 0.51 0.68 0.42 Alcoholic beverages and
Tobacco 6.80 20.78 21.43 0.15 0.46 0.48 5.34 2.39 1.31 0.81 0.59 0.99 Alcoholic Beverages 3.14 5.86 6.05 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.99 0.90 0.22 0.37 0.44 0.41 Tobacco 8.58 28.29 29.36 0.12 0.42 0.44 7.39 3.06 1.87 0.94 0.62 1.23 NON-FOOD 1.89 4.03 4.25 1.34 2.33 2.46 0.73 0.55 0.45 0.09 0.45 0.22 Clothing and footwear 2.32 2.18 2.31 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.26 0.17 0.26 0.17 0.17 0.21 Housing, Utilities &
Fuels 1.25 4.55 5.11 0.26 0.95 1.07 1.02 0.83 0.55 (0.18) 0.18 0.43
Table 2 Prices of Selected Commodities
Jul-17 Jun-18 Jul-18 Meralco rate per kWH for 200KW/mo consumption 8.25 9.88 10.19 Meralco Generation Charge per kWH 3.94 4.98 5.27 Meralco Transmission Charge per kWH 0.74 0.78 0.78
Diesel (PHP/litre), NCR 30.56 46.91 46.88
Gasoline, RON 95 (PHP/litre), NCR 43.37 57.84 57.51 Sources of basic data: Meralco, DOE
Electricity, Gas & Other
Fuels 1.74 9.37 10.77 0.11 0.59 0.67 2.26 2.21 1.67 (0.87) 0.10 0.95 Furnishings, household
equipment 2.36 3.02 2.85 0.07 0.09 0.41 0.44 0.61 0.26 0.17 0.17 0.18 Health 2.55 2.67 2.76 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.26 0.44 0.35 0.09 0.17 0.26 Transport 4.05 7.06 7.06 0.28 0.50 0.50 1.38 (0.29) 0.78 0.97 0.38 (0.10) Communication 0.20 0.40 0.42 0.01 0.01 0.01 - 0.10 - - 0.10 0.02 Recreation and Culture 1.65 1.36 0.72 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.18 0.09 Education 2.13 4.01 3.77 0.08 0.14 0.13 - - - - 3.75 0.02 Restaurants & Misc.
Services 1.67 3.57 3.58 0.21 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.63 0.36 0.36 0.27 0.19
