A special thanks to the Office of the National Security Adviser and the National Security Council. MICHAEL TAN; Executive Director of the Center for Integrative and Developmental Studies - Dr. It is a great honor to be invited by any institution belonging to the country's premier university – the University of the Philippines.
And so we ask how the Philippines navigates safely through the changing power dynamics and distribution in the context of the regional Indo-Pacific environment. Indeed, the National Security Policy 2017-2022 identifies great power rivalry and other threats to the hegemonic power of the United States. The Marawi incident exposed the gaps in border security in the southern triangle of the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.
It was in April 2012 that the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (UNCLCS) certified the Philippines' submission of an Extended Continental Shelf (ECS) in the Benham Rise region. Almost half of the population is dependent on agriculture, mainly in rural areas and among the poorest. There are some positive national security implications if our lawmakers address the immediate passage of the BBL.
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
Baviera argued that the current power shift is characterized by the rise of Asia and the decline of the influence of the US and Europe. Lallana began his presentation by posing the question, "How can ICT help the Philippines develop a way of doing things that will make it more successful than others?" According to him, the evidence of ICT as a strategy has already been adapted by the Philippines, as shown in the boom of the outsourcing industry, whose income recently equaled that of OFW remittances. Lallana asserted that ICT-enabled networks do not mean the end of the state, but its transformation.
Docena believed that climate change is one of the most important foreign policies of the Philippines, given the country's high vulnerability and its potential impacts on agriculture, on which the economy is heavily dependent. The ratification of the Paris Agreement in March 2017 by the Philippine government brought back old issues that were not fully addressed in the negotiations. Docena's take on climate policy: The first is to continue to champion the progressive liberal call to get the most out of the agreement by pushing for strong implementing rules and regulations (IRR).
Baviera was asked about her opinion on China's push to remove presidential term limits. This will certainly contribute to the acceleration of the shift of power in China, but it must be handled peacefully and responsibly, given the domestic opposition. The following questions were about the government's strategy regarding the ongoing territorial dispute in the South China Sea and Benham Rise.
When asked about her assessment of whether these strategies are aware of the change in power or whether she thinks the government is moving forward in the wrong direction, Dr. Baviera advises the Philippines on how to read this in the context of the shift of power. The document is also an attempt to reassure allies and partners that they are still present and that they know what they are doing and have assessed the situation.
Lallana responded to the question on the Philippines' independent ICT development, stressing that it cannot be decided by the market alone. Docena mentioned that the Philippines should not lose sight of the fact that even with the country's best efforts, as long as other countries continue to emit more, the Philippines' contribution would be very small.
REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT
In the past two years, there has been a lot of progress on West Philippine Sea issues. Batongbacal believes that the 2016 arbitration award will continue to be on the back burner for the foreseeable future. It's all part of some sort of naval deterrence strategy being pursued by the US, and it's only going to get more regular and nuanced.
All of this contributes to the US National Security Strategy's goal of maintaining free and open common domains, and SCS is one of the most common domains. The idea is to ensure that the region remains free and open due to the fear and concern that China is essentially moving towards a closed area of control surrounded by the two island chains. China regards the development of marine science and technology (MST) as one of the means to create and maintain maritime power.
Essentially, it gives up a significant part of the Philippines' unilateral ability to enforce law, as it allows Indonesian ships to operate in Philippine waters. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chartered in the 19th Party Congress that Xi Jinping is the living compass of the Party. In the maritime area, the national objective must be clear, it must be the preservation of the resources, so that they will continue to provide for the country.
His question related to the difference between the Cold War and the current situation between the US and China, stating that the shared economic interest of both countries is completely different from the economic exclusion system used by the US and the USSR. Regarding China's role, one audience member said that China may not be there to scare everyone. With the kind of president we have now, it's hard to hold him accountable or not.
What do you think of the difference between PRRD's bravery and his plan to plant the PH flag on Scarborough Shoal and the handshake. In particular, how such leaders complicate analysis and make decision-making captive to the whims of leadership.
DOMESTIC ENVIRONMENT
The headwaters of the Nile come from Ethiopia and go down to Sudan and Egypt. The biggest proponents of the liberal international order are now hiding behind protectionist measures, as jobs and manufacturing capabilities are being transferred to China. McKinsey estimates show that forty-five percent of the global working-age population is underutilized, either unemployed or underemployed.
The structure of the economy is changing, with the services sector continuing to be the main contributor to growth and industry slowly increasing its share of production. Citing the current government's Build-build-build infrastructure initiatives, Llanto said this government project will create a lot of employment opportunities just like MRT-7, but the country needs to do more to increase employment. The Philippines is not in the dense forest part of this network, but in the less well-connected periphery.
The challenge is to move to a denser part of the network, so there will be high added value and higher returns. The PRRD campaigned against the so-called “Imperial Manila” and seeks to establish a federal system under the slogan “Pagbabago;” anchored on addressing the issues of drugs, public order, the peace process, security and pro-poor rules, corruption and overall improved prosperity. The question arises of the legitimacy of the election process and the election victory itself.
The Philippines' adoption of the National Marine Policy (1994) shifted the development paradigm from a strong land-based economic framework to one that focuses on the maritime sector, and its contribution to economic development. Llanto responded by saying that there is a belated recognition of the importance of geography in the development plan, indicating recognition that the government has a lot of ground to cover. There have been investors willing to bet on renewable energy simply because of the economics.
Because of relative energy prices, in this conversation about global warming and climate change, there is a segment in society, domestically and abroad, that continues to push for renewables. The next question was about the possible outcomes in the merger of the BBL, federalism and the infrastructure program of the Duterte Administration ("Build, Build, Build").
RECAP AND REVIEW
PANEL CHAIRS FROM THE PREVIOUS SESSIONS
Commenting on the Philippine government's defense strategy, Naval noted that it must be justified in a coherent strategic policy. There is a need to seek the continued commitment of regional powers for the security of the region. Manufacturing is critical if the country is to raise the productivity and income of the vast majority.
Regarding the global political situation, he mentioned the rise of a new hegemony that is China. One of the issues raised during the Open Forum was the need to include geography in the development plan. A question was raised about how the country's archipelagic character has been integrated into its strategic planning.
The forum ended by summarizing some of the most pressing challenges we face. Along with that are the mechanisms for growth of trade, and the guarantor of the framework was the US Navy. It's because of American hegemony, and that's why we have to recalibrate a little bit."
The Philippines is less than three percent of the Chinese economy, which will double in the next seven years. Some of the steps include the following: (1) elementary and secondary school mathematics and science education; (2) higher education in STEM; (3) development of science and engineering skilled workforce; (4) R&D at academia, industry and government; and (5) knowledge transfer and application from R&D to the economy. Ong explained that the main concern is the miscalculation of the US, as it is not really much about real war.
For the first twenty-five years, after the opening, most of the Chinese stayed there. In Siy's opinion, it is part of the culture and politics in the Philippines. Ong replies that in the context of the current engagement with China, this does not prevent the Philippines from approaching the issue from a legal perspective.
Finally, an audience member highlighted the importance of institutions for development.
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