Contents
FOREWORD IX
PREFACE Xi
SUMMARY 1
1 Global Trends in Tobacco Use 13 Rising consumption in low-income and
middle-income countries 13 Regional patterns in smoking 15 Smoking and socioeconomic status 15 Age and the uptake of smoking 16 Global pattems of quitting 17
2 The Health Consequences of Smoking 21 The addictive nature of tobacco smoking 21 The disease burden 22
Long delays between exposure and disease 23 How smoking kills 24
The epidemic varies in place as well as in time 25 Smoking and the health disadvantage of the poor 25 The risks from others' smoke 26
Quitting works 27
3 Do Smokers Know Their Risks and Bear Their Costs? 29 Awareness of the risks 30
Youth, addiction, and the capacity to make sound decisions 31 Costs imposed on others 32
v
VI CURBING THE EPIDEMIC
Appropriate responses for governments 34 Dealing with addiction 36
4 Measures to Reduce the Demand for Tobacco 37 Raising cigarette taxes 37
Nonprice measures to reduce demand: consumer information,
bans on advertising and promotion, and smoking restrictions 45 Nicotine replacement therapy and other cessation interventions 53
5 Measures to Reduce the Supply of Tobacco 57
The limited effectiveness of most supply-side interventions 57 Firm action on smuggling 63
6 The Costs and Consequences of Tobacco Control 67 Will tobacco control harm the economy? 67
7 An Agenda for Action 79
Overcoming political barriers to change 81 Research priorities 81
Recommendations 82
APPENDIX A TOBACCO TAXATION: A VIEW FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 87
APPENDIX B BACKGROUND PAPERS 89
APPENDIX C ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 91
APPENDIX D THE WORLD BY INCOME AND REGION (WORLD BANK CLASSIFICATION) 95
BIBLIOGRAPHIC NOTE 101
BIBLIOGRAPHY 105
INDEX 119
FIGURES
1.1 Smoking is increasing in the developing world 14 1.2 Smoking is more common among the less educated 17 1.3 Smoking starts early in life 18
2.1 Nicotine levels climb rapidly in young smokers 22
CONTENTS VIl
2.2 Education and the risk of smoking-attributable death 26 2.3 Smoking and the widening health gap between
the rich and the poor 27
4.1 Average cigarette price, tax, and percentage of tax share per pack, by World Bank income groups, 1996 39 4.2 Cigarette price and consumption go in opposite trends 40 4.2.a Real price of cigarettes and annual cigarette consumption
per capita, Canada 1989-1995 40
4.2.b Real price of cigarettes and annual cigarette consumption per adult (15 years of age and above),
South Africa 1970-1989 40 4.3 A strong warning label 48
4.4 Comprehensive advertising bans reduce cigarette consumption 51
5.1 Tobacco smuggling tends to rise in line with the degree of corruption 64
6.1 As tobacco tax rises, revenue rises too 73 7.1 Unless current smokers quit, tobacco deaths will rise
dramatically in the next 50 years 80
TABLES
1.1 Regional patterns of smoking 15
2.1 Current and estimated future deaths from tobacco 23 4.1 Potential number of smokers persuaded to quit, and lives saved,
by a price increase of 10 percent 43
4.2 Potential number of smokers persuaded to quit, and lives saved, by a package of nonprice measures 54
4.3 Effectiveness of various cessation approaches 55 5.1 The top 30 raw-tobacco-producing countries 59 6.1 Studies on the employment effects of reduced or
eliminated tobacco consumption 70
6.2 The cost-effectiveness of tobacco control measures 77
BOXES
1.1 How many young people take up smoking each day? 19 4.1 Estimating the impact of control measures on global tobacco
consumption: the inputs to the model 43
4.2 The European Union's ban on tobacco advertising and promotion 52 6.1 Help for the poorest farmers 71
7.1 The World Health Organization and the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control 83
7.2 The World Bank's policy on tobacco 85
