F ( F ) .. 2544

(1)

.. 2544

486,502 ! 239,588 " 246,914 !#

$ 49.25 " !#$ 50.75 % &'(

% )$ ( )$ *$ )$)$) 97,435 !#$

20.03 & $* 389,067 !#$ 79.97 ' % )$

( !"#$) %.&. 2544

& : +

(2)

% ! ( !"#$) %.&.2542

60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80- 84 85- 89

$ !

( ) !"#

$.&.2542

*!+, 492,607 2 3 243,111 2 +!

249,496 2 6 !"# 25-45 $ 3 !"#8" 9 ! 8 !"#

":8 ;

- 30000 - 20000 - 10000 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000

0–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64

& : +

(3)

( / .)

!" 20,566 38.75

!" 38,557 48.04

!" 48,815 49.37

!" 52,885 59.38

!" 59,716 70.19

Lorenz Curve and calculation of population Concentration index : Phrae Provience

40 60 80 100

( % )

Phrae

''( $)*#+

#,-$ '+ )''( $)*#+ (Lorenz Curve) Lorenz Curve #+$#$." / $#' 0 1 .

" $( ,)*#+2 "''.

#+ " . $#+ .) . !" " $ "$)*#+2 ' *)*#+#+ &$$$)*#+/)*#+ ,#3 /(4"/

!" 59,716 70.19

!" 60,285 147.22

!" 83,609 166.49

!" 128,128 231.86

492,561 0

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

/01234 ( % )

(4)

' 56 Input Evaluat

Observed First Ratio of First Difference Ratio of Log

Year Population Difference Difference Logarithm of Logs Differences Reciprocal

*1000 (Linear) (Mod. Expo) (Geometric) (Gompertz)

Yt Y

t*

=Y

t

-Y

t-1

Y

t*

/Y

t*-1

L

t

=Log Y

t

L

t*

= L

t

-L

t-1

L

t*

/ L

t*-1

R

t

=1/Y

t

2536 491.19 2.691253053 0.002035855

2537 494.36 -3.996 2.694038931 -0.006279838 0.002022838

2538 493.51 21.074 -5.273773774 2.693291557 0.032139906 -5.117951261 0.002026322 2539 494.19 26.722 1.268007972 2.693895711 0.037605994 1.170071663 0.002023505 2539 494.19 26.722 1.268007972 2.693895711 0.037605994 1.170071663 0.002023505 2540 494.64 63.470 2.375196467 2.694286599 0.078100527 2.076810627 0.002021685 2541 495.72 25.645 0.404049157 2.695238193 0.027961920 0.358024728 0.002017260 2542 492.61 6.985 0.272372782 2.692500579 0.007314128 0.261574595 0.002030016 2543 489.59 6.072 0.869291339 2.689832539 0.006259540 0.855814995 0.002042525 2544 486.50 13.130 2.162384717 2.687084630 0.013234734 2.114330041 0.002055490 Mean 19.888 0.29678981 0.02454211 0.24552506

SD. 20.543 2.58568240 0.02623383 2.47834189 Adj. SD. 1.033 8.71216707 1.06893102 10.09404879

),,#, ' 56 ,,

Linear Model )+25678580489

:8 ; 778< Liner Model 3 Eror 9>

2346?5@75778<2A1<677

(5)

' 56 % .&.2536 - 2556

!7 ' 56 ,, Linear Model )+35 ( +$$"+$ * ' 56 ( 0 1 ." ( 35(

$)++$8$2 #+!#7! ( "/ $$1!+9)+"# #. ) .$ .

Year Index Y X (y=a+bx)

2536 -4 494700 2537 -3 494145 2538 -2 493589 2539 -1 493034 2540 0 492478

400000 420000 440000 460000 480000 500000 520000 540000 560000 580000 600000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 C /.D.2536 - 2556

( )

Phrae

"/ $$1!+9)+"# #. ) .$ . )+/)*#+& 39!#+' ,1(') '0"#.#+

!,-

2540 0 492478

2541 1 491923

2542 2 491367

2543 3 490812

2544 4 490256

2545 5 489701

2546 6 489145

2547 7 488590

2548 8 488034

2549 9 487479

2550 10 486923

2551 11 486368

2552 12 485812

2553 13 485257

2554 14 484701

2555 15 484146

2556 16 483590

(6)

& 39! Location Quotient

. ,- -% 641 , 8,177 -

1,075,764,182 ) ./& ) - & %/ *& ))&0

Northern Phrae Location Nonbasic Basic

Sector GDP GDP Quotient Income Income

Yi Xi Xi/X1/Yi/Y1

Agriculture 49145 1335 0.8977 1335 0

Crops 36876 926 0.8299 926 0

Livestock 5495 186 1.1186 166 20

- & %/ *& ))&0 (") 1 *&$'%#

310,891 + ,) ! *&$'%#

308,221 + %# 1,290 + %#+

1,380 + *$&" * %# %#, $2 & $* & % ') 34 $0$+ #*

#5 # % %

$$+ !# 6 7 18$ $-*(

.. 2543 '$ 0$96:2 ( GPP ) 13,080 $#) '$

0$96:2 ;$& 25,497 )

Fisheries 981 20 0.6737 20 0

Forestry 192 6 1.0327 6 0

Agricultural services 2444 47 0.6355 47 0

Simple agri.processing products 3157 150 1.5702 96 54

Mining and quarrying 14158 36 0.0840 36 0

Manufacturing 32069 194 0.1999 194 0

Construction 20719 819 1.3063 627 192

Electricity and water supply 5055 155 1.0133 153 2

Transportation and communication 14963 487 1.0756 453 34

Wholesale and retail trade 42987 1842 1.4161 1301 541

Banking,insurance and real estate 13086 415 1.0480 396 19

Ownership of dwellings 13328 576 1.4282 403 173

Public administration and defence 11763 510 1.4328 356 154

Services 27669 1195 1.4273 837 358

Total 294087 8899 7352 1547

(7)

Location Quotient (LQ)

!' 6'!,-#& 39!(#1!+$!7 Location Quotient (LQ) * 1 ."

( !#+#1!+' !' "( ! Simple agri.processing products Public administration and defence Ownership of dwellings

Services Wholesale and retail trade Construction

Livestock Transportation and communication

Banking,insurance and real estate Forestry Electricity and water supply ( !#+' , ! )*#+ )0+ ("( !

Agriculture Crops

Fisheries Agricultural services

Manufacturing Mining and quarrying

(8)

'!,-#& 39!()*#+

Components of Shift - Share Sector

Economic P-Shift D-Shift Total Growth

Agriculture 0.005664262 0.0904 -0.0973 -0.0013

Crops 0.005664262 0.1250 -0.1197 0.0109

Livestock 0.005664262 -0.1037 -0.0593 -0.1573

2 ), 18

%*&#< Shift-Share Analysis 0$= %0$

&$%() (%%%#&

& ' $% (

Livestock 0.005664262 -0.1037 -0.0593 -0.1573

Fisheries 0.005664262 0.3958 0.1279 0.5294

Forestry 0.005664262 0.5459 -0.4746 0.0769

Agricultural services 0.005664262 -0.1263 -0.0349 -0.1556

Simple agri.processing products 0.005664262 0.0015 0.0583 0.0655

Mining and quarrying 0.005664262 0.0415 -0.0716 -0.0244

Manufacturing 0.005664262 0.0933 -0.0310 0.0679

Construction 0.005664262 -0.5374 -0.0720 -0.6037

Electricity and water supply 0.005664262 0.1255 -0.0503 0.0809

Transportation and communication 0.005664262 -0.0331 0.0811 0.0536

Wholesale and retail trade 0.005664262 -0.1535 -0.0203 -0.1681

Banking,insurance and real estate 0.005664262 -0.3455 0.2064 -0.1335

Ownership of dwellings 0.005664262 0.1530 -0.0142 0.1445

Public administration and defence 0.005664262 0.2166 -0.0045 0.2177

Services 0.005664262 0.2272 -0.1682 0.0647

Total 0.005664262 0.7162 -0.7442 -0.0223

& ' $% ( P-shift !) , D-shift !$))

%0$&

9(7'&- *&

!%&$ %(

) $(%6 (

#&> (%%' +#% Fisheries $ Simple agri.processing products ./&'

(90$% 1 #&

(9)

XY Plot '76 P-shift , D-shift

0.0000 0.1000 0.2000 0.3000

D- Sh ift

-0.6000 -0.5000 -0.4000 -0.3000 -0.2000 -0.1000

-0.6000 -0.4000 -0.2000 0.0000 0.2000 0.4000 0.6000 0.8000

P-Shift

D- Sh ift

Agriculture Crops Livestock

Forestry Agricultural services Simple agri.processing products

Manufacturing Construction Electricity and water supply

Wholesale and retail trade Banking,insurance and real estate Ownership of dwellings

Services

(10)

# $ 7 ! *

4" )*#+4"% .&. 2541 5 1,506,769 " ) $ 36.87 ()*#+#* :0+/4", 5 4!,(4; "$)#+' " " , " , " ,

" $$ , "; , " / '$/!"#( #& ! , #++$,. 4" #< 6! 6 #" (4 9, =4/ 1 " 47 !"1#$"#))*#+4$. 4"

=4/ 1 " 47 !"1#$"#))*#+4$. 4"

" , #,!8 ') ('1.!, '1.!,(0* ,

. !< 6! 6"#" ! 8., " ! 3>

4##47 !(0* 4 /)& 39!##

* *7 !#+' ( " *$ /*#+ #+. ' ( *!#)(8*( $"#!&) #.

(#!&(.-(#$ /*#+ " -$6 .-' , !-'

# 3 $*$; 2 #+"*$ * ( *1(

* ( * (* $ (!*

(11)

!&

$169' ))3 *# ;?'3*))-"# *# $16*&%

& !$#$ 9' !9' %/(# 9 #(?'#$(

?' 9 % )+# ! 3 ?' *

? & * / *?19 -69' '- 6 39.8 .$ . ( *

1

?@ & 6 * - / *-$ ( * 3 &- $ 63

0.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 125.0 150.0 175.0 200.0

T U" VW

X T Y

ZY "T [U

\T T

U T

Z ] V T

^_!` (.) U_" (cC)

& : -- .

?@ & 6 * - / *-$ ( * 3 &- $ 63 +# 6 396.9 $$

? & ( *? / *- 9<2 ( *? -69' &- 6

11.5 .$ .

(12)

7 5-'

&(9' 9 5 * 9 * 9 9 9' $ 9# 0$ & 5,961,600 $')2

( +@@4 190,126,441 ,$2/&, 0'#(#+@@4 126,852 &03

&03

(/1 2544 , 346 ' 4,738 82,136 , /1 1 1 $ 2 /1/1 2 )- /1 4 ./& !%

% $ $ ,# ;$ $ $)9=-2

dX (346 )

dXeYY (1 )

X (2 )

[eYXeY (2 ) [UeY ( 4 )

1&03#+$$ .

& :

(13)

7 5-'

7 5.(

) 6 2544 ,)$8)$ 8 ,)$ 5 121 $- 9 125 )-$ &"+# 2 68 2 21

)$ 819 0'#)$ 80 &

&

( #$ 98.0 )*-< 304 A2 64 91- 1,148 '

$ 6 1,560 ' #$ 2.0 )**& 2 $$ ,)22 16 1

8 5

121 125

df d [X TU^g"

1, ! 7 5.( #+

$$ .

& :

304 64

16 1

!hW d[WTW

&1#+$$ .

& :

(14)

!' 6&$()*#+

600 600 600 600 600 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 300 300 300 300 300 300 400 200 200 200 200 200300 400 100 100 100 100 200300 400 100 0 0 100 200300 300 200 100 0 0 100 200300 300200 200 100 0 0 100 200300 300200 100 100 300200 100 0 0 100 200 200 200 200 100 0 100 400 300200 100 0 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 400 300200 100 100 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 500 400 300200 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 500 400 300 300200 200 100 100 0 0 100 100 200 200 600 500 400 400 300200 200 100 100 0 100 100 200 200300 500 500 500 400 300 300200 100 100 0 100 100 200 200300 300 400 400 400 400 300200 200 100 0 0 100 200 200300 300 300 300 300 400 400 300200 100 100 0 100 100 200300 300 400 200 200300 300 300 300200 100 0 0 100 200 200300 400 100 100 200 200 200 200 200 200 100 0 100 100 200300 300 400 200 100 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 200 200300 400 400

200 200 100 100 100 300 200 100 100 0 100 200 300 200 100 0 0 100 200 300 200 100 0 100 100 200 200 200 100 0 100 100 200 100 100 100 0 0 100 200 100 0 0 0 100 100 200 200 100 100 0 0 100 200 200 300 200 200 100 0 0 100 200 300 300 300 300 300 200 200 100 0 0 100 200 200 200 200 200 200 400 300 200 100 100 0 100 100 200 200 100 100 100 100 400 300 200 100 0 0 100 200 200 200 100 0 0 100 500400 300 200 100 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 400 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 100 0 100 100 0 100 300 300 300 300 200 100 0 100 100 100 0 100 0 0 100 200 200 200 200 200 200 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 100 100 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 0 100 100 0 100 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 100 100 100 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100 200 100 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 0 0

Factor 1 :

$

2 9%*& ,

B%/ ' 4 B#*

8$#+ 1 *$

Factor 2 :

200 100 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 200 200300 400 400 300200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 200300 300 400 400 300200 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 200300 400 400 500 400 300200 200 200 200 200 100 0 0 100 100 0 100 200 400 500 600 500 400 300 300 300 300200 100 100 0 100 100 100 0 100

600 500 400 400 400 400 300200 100 0 0 100 200 100 0 700 600 500 500 500 500 400 300200 100 100 100 100 200 700 600 600 600 300200 200

700 700 300

100 100 100 0 100 100 100 200 100 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 100 200 200 200 100 0 100 100 200 200 100 100 100 200 100 0 0 100 100 100 200 300 200 100 100 100 200 200 200 200 200 200 100 100 100 0 100 100 200 200 200 300 200 200 200 200 200 300 300 300 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 200 200 200 300 300 300 300 300 300

100 0 0 100 100 0 100 100 100 200 300 400 400 400 400 100 0 0 100 100 100 0 0 0 100 200 300 400500

100 0 100 100 100 0 100

100 100 100

1400 1400 1400 1400 1400 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1200 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1100 1200

900 900 900 9001000 1100 1200

800 800 800 9001000 1100 1200

700 700 700 800 9001000 1100 1200 1200

600 600 700 800 9001000 1100 1100 1200 1200 1200

500 500 500600 700 800 9001000 1000 1100 1100 1100 1100 1200

400 400 400 500600 700 800 900 9001000 1000 1000 1000 1100 1100

300 300 400 500600 700 800 800 900 900 900 9001000 1000 1100

200 200 300 400 500600 700 700 800 800 800 800 900 9001000

100 200 300 400 500600 600 700 700 700 700 800 800 9001000

0 100 200 300 400 500 500600 600 600 600 700 700 800 9001000

100 0 100 200 300 400 400 500 500 500 500600 600 700 800 9001000

100 0 100 200 300 300 400 400 400 400 500 500600 700 800 900 100 100 0 100 200 200 300 300 300 300 400 400 500600 700 800 900 100 0 0 100 100 200 200 200 200 300 300 400 500600 700 800 200 100 100 0 0 100 100 100 200 200 200 300 400 500600 700 800 400 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 0 100 100 100 200 300 400 500600 700 800 500 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 100 0 0 100 200 300 400 500600 700 600500 400 400 300 300 200 200 200 100 100 100 0 100 200 300 400 500600 700 600 600500 400 400 300 300 300 300 200 200 100 0 100 200 300 600 700 800 700 600500 500 500 400 400 400 300 300 200 100 0 100 200

800 700 600 600 600500 500 500 400 400 300 200 100 100 100 900 800 700 700 700 600 600 600500 500 400 300 200 200 900 800 800 800 600 600500

900 900 600

700 700 700 700 700 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 200 200 200 200 200 300 300 200 100 100 100 200 300 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 300 400 300 200 100 100 100 200 200 300 400 400 500400 300 200 200 100 100 100 200 300 300 300 400 500 500400 300 300 200 100 0 100 200 200 200 300 400 500400 400 400 300 200 100 100 100 100 100 200 300 400 600 500400 300 300 300 200 200 200 100 0 100 200 300 600 500400 300 200 200 200 200 200 100 100 100 200 300 700600 500400 300 200 100 100 100 200 200 200 200 200 300 700 700600 500400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 300 300 300 300 600 600 600 500400 300 200 100 100 100 200 300 400 400 400 500 500 500 600 500400 300 200 200 200 200 200 300 400500 500 400 400500 600 500400 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 400500 300 300 400500 600 500400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400500 200 200 200 300 400500 600 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 100 100 100 200 300 400500 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 200 100 0 100 200 300 400500 600700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 300 200 100 100 100 200 300 400500 600700 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 400 300 200 200 200 200 200 300 400500 600700 800 900 900 900

400 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 400500 600700 800 9001000

500400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400500 600700 800 500 500 500 500 500 500 500

600 600 600

Factor 3 : +@ Factor 4 : &

&&(

8$#+ 1 *$

( k=10 W=2 Xmax=600 Xmin=0)

8$#+ 2 *

( k=10 W=1 Xmax=500 Xmin=0)

8$#+ 3 *+@

(k=10 W=1 Xmax=1400 Xmin=0)

8$#+4 *& &

(k=10 W=2 Xmax=1000

(15)

!&$()*#+

0$ 29%*&=

*&+# 9+ B5&

%/

- *&& 9 &-') 6$&

! *& +#) 6 . . *

*&& 9 &-

*&& 9$

*&& 9#

! *& +#) 6 . . *

$ .

- *&& 9$ +#*&) 6)5%

95 +# . . * .$ . $ .

- *&& 9#7+#) 6 .

$ . . * $& 9 +%

*&& 9#

*&& 9#&-