Chih-hung LIU
Deputy Director General, Bureau of Foreign Trade Ministry of Economic Affairs
Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Economy and Society
The 35th Pacific Economic Community Seminar
27 October 2020
I Overview of COVID-19
II
III
IV
Global Economic and Trade Performance
Impact on the Global Economy and Trade
Chinese Taipei's Performance and Measures
Outline
2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
2020/1/20 2020/2/20 2020/3/20 2020/4/20 2020/5/20 2020/6/20 2020/7/20 2020/8/20 2020/9/20 2020/10/20
x 10000
x 10000
Accumulated deaths
Deaths and confirmed cases continue to rise.
COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc on global health
I. Overview of COVID-19
COVID-19 in China COVID-19 spreads internationally Restrictions begin to be lifted
Source：WHO.
Accumulated Confirmed Cases
3 Accumulated
Confirmed Cases Accumulated
deaths
3.1
1.4 2.1 1.6 3.5 2.9 3.3 3.6 2.5 3.3 4.2
1.7 2.0
2.9 3.9 3.6 4.1 4.0 1.7
-1.7
4.2 3.1
2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.5 3.2 2.6
-4.5 12.5
0.7 7.6
0.1 13.9
19.4
4.8 3.4
-1.3 4.1
12.5
-3.8 4.4
16.9 21.5
14.0
15.2 15.3
15.7
-22.4 21.4
20.5
1.2 2.2 0.6
-12.6 -3.1
10.8
9.9
-2.6
-10.8
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20(f)
Chinese Taipei joined APEC (1991)
Chinese Taipei a GATT observer (1992)
4
Recent Changes
II. Global Economic and Trade Performance
Real GDP growth(%) Merchandise trade volume growth(%) WTO established
(1995)
1997 Asian Financial
Crisis
Dot-com bubble (2000) September 11 attack (2002)
Financial crisis 2008-
2009
European
debt crisis Trump ’ s
“ America First ” campaign
wins election
COVID-19
61.9 62.0
53.0
57.9 56.0
46.9
42.4 41.5
47.4
40.0 37.7 37.2 39.0
32.9 61.9 56.8 55.6
55.6 51.7 44.4 42.9 42.5
42.3 38.8 37.6 34.9 34.0 31.7
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Singapore Chinese Taipei
Vietnam Malaysia S.Korea The Philippines
Germany France Hong Kong United Kingdom
Japan China India USA
304.0
210.6 194.3
100.6 99.8
69.3 63.6 45.9 40.7 39.5 30.5 28.4 27.4 19.5
0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0
Hong Kong Singapore Vietnam Chinese Taipei
Malaysia Germany S.Korea France The Philippines
United Kingdom
China India Japan USA
Dependence on goods trade of major countries in 2019 (%)
Dependence on Goods Trade
Industrial Value Chains
Participation in value chains (%)
5
2010 2015
Trade Dependence and Value Chains
II. Global Economic and Trade Performance
Source: IHS Markit. 2020.09; DGBAS, Executive Yuan, Chinese Taipei. Note: * Forecast by DGBAS, Executive Yuan, Chinese Taipei.
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Forecasts for Major PECC Countries
Estimated economic and trade performance of major PECC countries
II. Global Economic and Trade Performance
PECC Economies
Economic growth Trade Growth
Forecast of 2020 Forecast of 2021 Forecast of 2020 Forecast of 2021
World -4.81 4.34 -10.93 9.20
Australia -4.88 1.66 -3.64 9.44
China 1.69 7.07 -5.11 6.55
Hong Kong -7.64 4.00 -2.65 8.10
Indonesia -3.37 3.39 -8.38 6.93
Japan -5.74 2.20 -13.42 11.89
Malaysia -8.60 4.59 -14.58 7.97
The Philippines -8.16 7.72 -23.96 10.34
Singapore -9.51 2.61 -18.97 2.82
S. Korea -1.12 2.11 -11.03 9.66
Chinese Taipei 1.56* 3.92* -0.60* 6.48*
Thailand -7.79 4.41 -10.57 -1.16
USA -4.04 3.48 -11.67 12.52
Vietnam 1.13 5.47 6.49 10.32
Unit: ％
Restaurants closed
S U P P L Y D E M A N D
Factories
closed Reduced demand
for crude oil
Less tourism and business
activities Fewer cargo
freights
Suspended work, increased
unemployment Supply chain restructuring
Decrease in consumption
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III. Impact on the Global Economy and Trade
COVID-19 negatively impacts global supply and demand
8
More focus on resilient and secure supply chains
Source：WTO Secretariat estimates.
Digital industries(ICT, electronics) & med biotech show positive growth COVID-19 Widens imbalance between industries
III. Impact on the Global Economy and Trade
Year-on-year growth in world manufactured goods trade by product, 2020Q2
9
flexible and resilient manufacturing industry
IV. Chinses Taipei's Performance and Measures
Laptops
24.0%
Semi- conductors
22.3%
Servers
39.0%
purifiers Air
8.2%
Electric bicycles
18.1%
investment incentives
outstanding trade performance
cooperation with like-minded partners.
Three major investment programs
FDI in Chinese Taipei strengthens its supply chain
Strengthening foreign economic and trade ties
Green and renewable energy
Promoting Chinese Taipei's Economic and Trade Model
IV. Chinses Taipei's Performance and Measures
10
Thank you
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