Evaluating of Population Transition and Economic Dimensions Recovering from COVID-19 in Jordan

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Volume 12

Issue 9 Sep. 2023 Article 14

2023

Evaluating of Population Transition and Economic Dimensions Evaluating of Population Transition and Economic Dimensions Recovering from COVID-19 in Jordan

Recovering from COVID-19 in Jordan

A. Jubran

Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Administrative Sciences, Zarqa University, Zarqa, Jordan, [email protected]

Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.aaru.edu.jo/isl Recommended Citation

Recommended Citation

Jubran, A. (2023) "Evaluating of Population Transition and Economic Dimensions Recovering from COVID-19 in Jordan," Information Sciences Letters: Vol. 12 : Iss. 9 , PP -.

Available at: https://digitalcommons.aaru.edu.jo/isl/vol12/iss9/14

This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Arab Journals Platform. It has been accepted for inclusion in Information Sciences Letters by an authorized editor. The journal is hosted on Digital Commons, an Elsevier platform. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected],

[email protected].

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Inf. Sci. Lett. 12, No. 9, 2061-2072 (2023) 2061

Information Sciences Letters

An International Journal

http://dx.doi.org/10.18576/isl/120913

Evaluating of Population Transition and Economic Dimensions Recovering from COVID-19 in Jordan

A. Jubran^*

Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Administrative Sciences, Zarqa University, Zarqa, Jordan Received: 30 Jun. 2023, Revised: 12 Jul. 2023; Accepted: 20 Aug. 2023

Published online: 1 Sep. 2023.

Abstract: The study evaluates the population shift towards decreased growth rates in Jordan, considering factors such as migration and the COVID-19 pandemic, since the announcement of the population opportunity in 2009. Economic measurement methods were used to identify the factors and their role in slowing down population growth over time. The study found that an increase in the children category by 1% leads to a 1.05% increase in the dependency rate, indicating a variation in the effect of demographics on dependency rates. The study also found that the COVID-19 crisis had a 0.05%

impact on the actual dependency rate, which is declining slowly over time.

Keywords: Population Gift, Real Dependency Rate, Population Structure, Slowing Population Gift, Labor Market.

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• ا ﻻ ﺳ 3ﻬ ﻼ ك . وﻓ ), ﺎ }ﺄﺗ ﻲ أ ﻫ , ﻬﺎ :

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، ﻋ

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ﺔ }ﻘ Œ ن@

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را ﺳ ﺔ ﻣﻘ ﺎﺑ ﻞ ﻋ

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ا ت ﻓ ﻌﻠ )ﺔ ﻟ ﻠ#

را ﺳ ﺔ ﺗﻘ

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ا ت [ 15 ] . ﻓ@

ﻓ

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، ﺗﻘ

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<

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@ذ ج ا ﻟS ,

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اﻟ ,3

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´ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﻣ L3 6

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ﻞ د ﯾSﺎ ر ﻣS ﻔ

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` ﺎﻩ ا ﻟ

<

' ) ﺢ .

4 . اﻋ ﺎد ة اﻟS

# y, ﺎ } Œ , T ا ﺣ ﻼ ل ا ﻟ

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5 . ﺗﻐ )) . ﻧ ,

… ا ﻻ ﺳ 3ﻬ ﻼ ك ا ﻟ,

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@ ع ﺑ

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@ ل ا ﻟ ﻰ ا ﻻ ﺳ 3ﻬ ﻼ ك ا ﻟS

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،

اﻟﻔ qﺎ ت ا ﻟﻌ , .D ﺔ ﻓ ﻲ ا ﻟﻬ .م ا ﻟ 6 Lﺎ ﻧ ﻲ

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، ﺗ O ﻔ)

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* ا ﻻ ﺳ 3ﻬ ﻼ ك ا ﻻ ﻋ 3"ﺎ f ﻲ

، و{

ﺎﻟ3 ﺎﻟ ﻲ

ﺗ O ﻔ)

¨ ﺿ ﻐ

… ا ﻻ ﺳ 3ﻬ ﻼ ك ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﻣ

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1.5 ¯

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ﻣ

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• ا ﻟ.

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ƒ L ﻞ 8"

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ﻣ T 6.7

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ل ﻋ ﺎم

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و 8 ,ﺎ ﺗ

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ﺎ ﺣ

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ﺟ G و ل 2 : ا ﻟﻔq ﺎ ت ا ﻟﻌ , .D ﺔ و ﻣ ﻌ

# ﻻ ت ا ﻻ ﻋ ﺎﻟ ﺔ) 1997 – 2021

[15] ( .

t Year 0-14 15-64 65+ Dependency Ratio RatioDependencyReal

1 1997 1936140 2545640 118220 0.8070112 1.110994397

2 1998 2002920 2631890 120940 0.80697142 1.110947916

3 1999 1940940 2827210 131850 0.73315742 0.960585321

4 2000 1923372 2792775 131139 0.73565217 1.011184443

5 2001 1971288 2862350 134406 0.73565217 1.03476222

6 2002 1927044 2992526 178430 0.70357751 1.011307571

7 2003 1976940 3070010 183050 0.70357751 0.992488319

8 2004 1984850 3161850 203300 0.69204738 0.983642881

9 2005 2041429 3256435 175136 0.68067227 0.972620034

10 2006 2088800 3326400 184800 0.68350168 0.957560097

11 2007 2234072 3590255 230067 0.68634094 0.940553443

12 2008 2169129 3480010 229257 0.6891894 0.934924856

13 2009 2117423 3466988 238501 0.67953047 0.928278386

14 2010 2017331 3351007 235355 0.67224151 0.911133152

15 2011 2332480 3714790 201730 0.68219469 0.931337183

16 2012 2382325 3794375 211300 0.68354472 0.917476903

17 2013 2437340 3881870 210790 0.68217895 0.924689874

18 2014 2489775 3964950 213600 0.681818181 0.800816164

19 2015 3278337 5926580 353683 0.612835733 0.742835665

20 2016 3360714 6074760 362526 0.612903225 0.765903225

21 2017 3448179 6232860 371961 0.612903225 0.793903225

22 2018 3535987 6391580 381433 0.612903225 0.798903225

23 2019 3630576 6543480 390498 0.614516129 0.805516129

24 2020 3716264 6699720 399820 0.61436657 0.841366570

25 2021 3798030 6851020 407950 0.613920263 0.851920263

اﻟ]

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•. ا ﻟ"ﺎ ﺣ

› ﻓ ﺄ ن أ زﻣ ﺔ 8

@ ر وﻧ ﺎ) Covid-19 ( وأ زﻣ ﺔ اﻟﻠ

`

@ء ا ﻟ 6

@ gر syr) ( 8ﺎ ن ﻟ ﻬ ,ﺎ ﺗ ﺄﺛ) .ا ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ا ﻟﻔ . ﺻ ﺔ،

و{

ﺈ ﺿ ﺎﻓ 3ﻬ ,ﺎ ﺗ

<

"

ﺢ ا ﻟ, ﻌﺎ دﻟ ﺔ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ا ﻟS '

@ ا ﻵ ﺗ ﻲ :

و{

3ﻘ

#ﯾ . ا ﻟ, ﻌﺎ دﻟ ﺔ y

‡ .D ﻘﺔ ا ﻟ, .{

ﻌﺎ ت ا ﻟ

<

ﻐ .

• ) OLS ( 8 ﺎﻧ e ا ﻟS3 ﺎﺋ ﺞ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ا ﻟS '

@ ا ﻵ ﺗ ﻲ :

ﺟ G و ل 3 : ﻧ 3ﺎﺋ ﺞ ﺗ ﺄﺛ) . ا ﻟ, 3ﻐ ) .ا ت ا ﻟ, 6 3ﻘﻠ ﺔ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ا ﻻ ﻋ ﺎﻟ ﺔ

Dependent Variable: LOG REAL

DEPENDENCY

Method: Least Squares Date: 02/22/23 Time: 18:06

Sample: 1 25

Included observations: 25

Huber-White-Hinkley (HC1) heteroskedasticity consistent standard errors and covariance

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

LOG(BABY) 1.051634 0.243578 4.317440 0.0003

LOG(WORKING) -1.116154 0.309266 -3.609047 0.0018

LOG(OLD) 0.115570 0.098965 1.167789 0.2566

COVID 0.052810 0.017404 3.034419 0.0065

SYR -0.082369 0.030849 -2.670023 0.0147

R-squared 0.893640 Mean dependent var -0.087627

Adjusted R-squared 0.872368 S.D. dependent var 0.110322

S.E. of regression 0.039413 Akaike info criterion -3.452570

Sum squared resid 0.031068 Schwarz criterion -3.208795

Log likelihood 48.15713 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.384958

Durbin-Watson stat 1.252760

أ

• ﻬ . ت ﻧ 3ﺎﺋ ﺞ ا ﻟ

`

# و ل ) 3 ( أ ن ﺗ ﺄﺛ) . ا ﻟﻬ )L ﻞ ا ﻟ 6 Lﺎ ﻧ ﻲ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ا ﻟﻔ . ﺻ ﺔ 8ﺎ ن ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ا ﻟS '

@ ا ﻵ ﺗ ﻲ :

) (2 O)

W, B, f(P, Dep =

) (3 O

α W α B α P α

Dep =

₁

+

₂

+

₃

+

₄

) (4 log(O)

α log(W) α

log(B) α

log(P) α

log(Dep) =

₁

+

₂

+

₃

+

₄

) (5 Syr

α Covid α

log(O) α

log(W) α

log(B) α

log(P) α

log(Dep)

6 5

4 3

2 1

+ +

+

=