QUOC PHONG. QUAN Slf NXjdC NGOAI
^ TRIEN VONG VE HIEN THtfC HOA THOA THUAN HAT NHAN CUA l-RAN
Thiiu tudng, PGS. TS. Li VAN CUONG Vi^n Chiin lu^ vk Khoa hgc Cdng an, B^ Cdng an
Ngky 24-11'ZQ13, rih&m PS+I^ vk /-ran Ok i^t dtrpe Thda thu$n t?m thdi ve ctiuong trtnh hat nhkn giy tranh cki cOa Td-hS-ran. Dky Ik buwc <Ji?( phi quan trgng m& ra iriin vgng mdi trong tiin fririh dkm pttkn giira ckc bdn. Tay nhidn, di di din thda thu$n cuoi ciing giSea phurmg Tay va I-ran, van cdn chkng tkedng dki dky chQng gat, thkch ihO-c.
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I-ran - bdn c d Idn cfta My, Nga va• Trung Q u I c
Ndm d Tdy Nam A - d n Oflng, cd trft lupng d i u md, khi dot ldn hdng d i u t h l gldi, Igl dn ngft eo bien Hoflc-mOt - noi cfl khoang 40% lupng dau md thuong mgi todn the gidi eOng 80% dau md xult khau cua cdc nude VOng \^nh Pflc-xleh vd biln Ca-xpi di qua, l-ran ed vj fri dia chlnh tri, dja chien lupc quan trpng cua khu vyc Tdy Nam A • Tmng Odng vd U i l gidi. Khflng nhftng the, I- ran cdn Id cfta ngd thufln Ipi nhlt di vdo khu vyc Tmng A - Cdp-ca-do - "qua tim" cOa lyc dja A - Au vd cQng Id noi hiem y l u , d l t i n thuong nhlt ddi vdi an ninh qudc gia cOa Nga vd ca khflng gian hdu Xd-vilL Vi fril, dd tft ldu, 1-ran frd thdnh tdm dilm chO y cOa cdc cudng qudc trfln t h l gidl; frong dd, cd ba nudc My, Nga vd Tmng Qudc d i u tranh thO ldi kflo 1-ran v l phia minh. I- ran trd thdnh bdn c d ldn vdi ba "ngudi choi": My mflt bfln vd phia bfln kia Id Nga vd Tmng QuIc.
D l i vdi My, neu tranh thu dupe I-ran se khdng c h l dypc con dudng lien vdo Tnjng A - Cdp-ca- do vd lay dd ldm bdn dgp de can Ihjflp vdo cdng viflc nfli bfl cOa Nga vd Tmng Q u I c .
Nhdn rd muu d l dd, Nga vd Tmng QuIc dd, dang d l y mgnh hpp tdc vd ludn sdt cdnh bfln
nhau trong nhilu ITnh vyc, citng nhau ddi phd vdi My. Tuy vfly, gifta Nga vd Tmng Qudc cung cfl mdu thuan ve Ipi ieh d Trung A - Cdp-ca-do nfln bfln cgnh viflc thOc d l y hpp tdc, hai nydc cQng dm tham kiem d e ldn nhau vd franh gidnh dnh hudng tgi khu v y c c h i l n lupc ndy. Cdc nhd phdn tich cho r i n g , trong "cuflc d ndy". My cd ve d m
"qudn fring", Nga d t h l bj dflng d l i phd (dO y l u Id vdi My), cdn Tmng Qudc cfl cdch di khde - sft dyng con bdi kinh te d l chiem ITnh vung Tmng A - Cdp-ca-do vd tung budc Idch vdo mflt cdch
"lich sy". Nhu vfly, cupc tranh gidnh anh hudng vd chi phdi d l i vdi khu v y c Trung A - Cdp-ca-do dang Idm cho Tfl-hfl-ran cd sftc h i p d i n idn doi vdi ba cydng quoc hdng d i u t h l gidi vd buflc hp phai dau tri, d i u lyc linh lodn tftng "nudc di", n h l m gidnh frie cfl Ipi khi vdn d ldn I-ran budc vdo giai dogn lodn cue.
2. My vipa can d y , chong phd, vft'a xoa diu, loi kflo I-ran
Ngay sau chien franh t h l gidi l l n thft nhlt (1914 - 1918) k i t thOc, My dd d l mdt toi l-ran, nhyng phai 35 ndm sau Oa-sinh-ton mdi chlnh
1 - Nh6m dim phan g&m 06 rni6c: Anh, Phap. My, a, Trung Qu6c vA Due.
TAP CHl QUOC PHdNG TOAN DAN Sd 5/2014
tiiirc can d y vdo nudc Cflng hfla Hdi gido ndy.
Ndm 1953, C o quan Tinh bdo Tmng uong My (CIA) dd nhOng tay thyc hifln cuflc ddo chinh Igt dd chinh quyen dupe ldng ddn Pa-la-vi, dyng Ifln chinh quyen phan ddn chO vd mat Iflng ddn M6- sa-dlch d 1-ran, K l tft ddy, ngudi dSn 1-ran thit hfln My, coi My Id "quy sa tdng" khflng dfli frdi Chung Dflc biflt, ndm 1979, vdi cuflc Cdeh mgng Hdi gido logi bd chlnh quyln thdn My M6-sa-dlch thdnh cflng vd s y kien sinh vifln nudc ndy bdt gift 66 ngudi My tgi Tfl-hfl-ran ldm eon tin, quan hfl My - l-ran dd roi vdo trgng thdi ddi dau cdng thing. Vdi vj the node ldn. My rat mudn trftng phgl l-ran, nhyng chua Hm dupe nguyfln cd thda ddng. Chi d i n khi (thdng 8-2002) mflt to chftc d l i tflp luu vong d nudc ngodi to cdo Tfl-he-ran bl mflt xdy dyng d c co sd Idm gidu u-ra-ni vd Id phdn ftng nude ndng Na-tan, A-rdc thl chuong frinh hgt nhdn bj nghi ngd cua l-ran trd thdnh vln d l an ninh n i l d m , tdi c u i n s y quan tdm cua cflng dong quoc te vd ddy chinh Id co hfli d l My can thiflp vdo quIc gia Hoi gido ndy, Tuy nhifln, sau nhftng gl d i l n ra d Ap-ga-ni-xtan (ndm 2001) vd 1-rlc (ndm 2003), sy can d y cOa My vdo l-ran chu y l u thdng qua ddm phdn, trong thdi gian ddi vd s u dyng cdc tang, n l c trftng phgt. Giai dogn dau (tu ndm 2003 - 2005), My khdng ra mdt md dftng sau d i l u khien, hflu tfiu§n cho Anh, Phdp, Dftc tryc tiep ddm phdn vdi l-ran nhung khdng mang Igi k i t qua ndo.
Giai dogn hai (tft ndm 2006 - 2013), My tryc tiep tham gia vd hinh thdnh co c h l ddm phdn P5+1 vdi l-jan, nhung sau nhilu vdng ddm phdn. d nhieu dja d i l m khde nhau, vdi nhieu phuong dn dypc cdc bfln dua ra. k i t qua vdn hodn todn be tdc. T i l p dd. My vd phuong Tdy tdng cudng cdc bifln phdp frftng phgl, cdn Tfl-hfl-ran cfl phan ftng ngdy cdng quylt liflt vd khflng ngftng md rflng, ndng cao khd ndng ky thuflt - cflng nghfl Idm gidu u-ra-ni. C u l l ndm 2011, 1-ran cflng b l dS ldm gidu dupe 70 kg u-ra-ni d d p dfl 20%;
nghifln cftu, che tgo thdnh cdng mdy ly tdm t h l hfl Uift 3 vd cd k l hogch ldp ddt 60.000 chile cho edc ca s d hgt nhdn cua nudc ndy. Thdng 10-2012, Tfl-hfl-ran tuyfln b l , n i u ddm phdn vdi
P5+1 khdng lien frien thi nudc ndy se day mgnh ldm gidu u-ra-ni d d p dfl 60%. Cftng vdi cdc dflng thdi tren cua 1-ran, Hfli ddng Bao an Lifln hpp qudc (dudi sy tdc dflng cua My vd phuong Tdy) da lifln t i l p thdng qua cdc nghi quyet 1737 (ndm 2006), 1747 (ndm 2007) vd 1929 (ndm 2010) frftng phgt 1-ran M? vd Lifln minh chdu Au (EU) cung don phuong dp ddt them nhieu bifln phdp trftng phgt ngdi nghflo trfln nhieu ITnh vyc;
trong dfl, trpng tdm Id bao vdy, cam vfln ve kinh t l md trpng diem Id hgn c h l viflc san xual, xult khau dau md cua 1-ran.
Theo ddnh gid ciia cdc nhd quan sat, myc dich cdc bifln phdp tarng phgt cOa My vd phuong TSy n h l m tSm cho nen kinh le cua l-ran suy yeu vd syp dd, tft dfl se gSy hflu qua n$ng ne ddi vdi ehinh quyen Tfl-hfl-ran trfln hai khia cgnh. ThO- nhit, ldm chdm qud trinh phdt trien Idm gidu u-ra-nl, tftc Id kflo ddi Uidi gian dk 1-ran cfl the sd hftu vu khi hgt nhdn Thir hai, ldm cho nhdn ddn 1-ran b i t blnh, xd hfli r l l logn, tgo cdc cuflc b i l u tinh, bgo logn chdng doi vd Iflt do chlnh quyen 1-ran dyong nhiflm (nhu phifln ban
"MOa xudn A-rSp"); hodc chl It cung buflc nydc ndy phai dieu chinh chinh sdch d l i ngogi doi vdi My vd phuong Tdy. Song, dieu My vd phuong Tdy mong muon dS khdng xdy ra, thflm chl, Oa- sinh-ton d n ldm vdo tiie tien thodi ludng nan.
Trong dd, viflc trftng phgt kinh te l-ran khdng nhftng khdng khult phyc dupe chinh quyen T6- hfl-ran, md cdn Idm cho Idng d m thO My cOa ngudi ddn nudc ndy tdng cao. Ddi vdi I-ran, do quylt tdm frieo d u l l chyong trinh phdt trien hgt nhdn nen bj My vd phuong Tdy tdng cydng mftc dfl trung phgt, gdy thiflt hgi Idn cho n i n kinh t l nudc ndy. Ndm 2012, thu nhflp chO y l u tft x u l t khiu dau md cOa l-ran dd giam 40% (so vdi ndm 2011); Igm phdt tdng hon.20%, ddng tien mat gid trfln 80%; ttilt nghiflp gia tdng, ddi sdng cua dgi da s i ngydi ddn gflp nhieu khd khSn. Trong khi dd, n i u tiep tyc phdt trien chyong trinh hgt nhdn, nudc ndy vfta phat chi phi t i n kdm, vfta b| cflng d i n g qudc te cd tflp, thdm chl cdn phai doi mSt vdi mflt cuflc tan d n g qudn s y tft bfln ngodi.
Hon nua, cho dit l-ran che tgo dupe vQ khi hgt
TAP CHl QUOC PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 5/2014 77
nhdn till trong thdi gian ngdn cung chua the trd thdnh cuflng qudc hat nhdn cua khu vyc, trdi tgi cdn kich thich cdc nudc ldng gieng nghifln cftu phdt tnen vu khi buy diflt, ldm cho uu t h l hgt nhdn cua nudc ndy, du cd cung It phdt huy tdc dyng. Sau thdi gian ddi tinh todn, cdn nhdc "Ipi, hgi" d Oa-sinh-lon vd Tfl-hfl-ran dd quyet djnh di dfln mdt Thda thufln tgm thdi (ngdy 24-11- 2013) ve chuong frinh hgt nhSn gSy tranh edi cOa l-ran d l budc vdo mdt giai dogn mdi sdng sua hon.
3. Trien vpng hifln t h y c hda Thda thugn hgt nhan cOa l-ran
Theo nfli dung co ban cua Thda thudn tgm thdi (ngdy 24-11-2013) thi 1-ran chIm dirt viflc ldm gidu u-ra-ni d p dfl trfln 5%; cho phflp cSc thanh sdt vifln cOa Co quan ndng lupng nguyfln t u qudc te (IAEA) thanh sdt tat ca cdc co sd hgt nhdn bj nghi ngd cOa nudc ndy. Odi Igi, My vd phuong Tdy khflng dp thflm cdc bifln phdp trftng phgt mdi; ddng thdi, tftng budc gd bd cdc Iflnh trung phgt dang dp ddt trong khi 1-ran vdn bdo luu quyln ldm gidu u-ra-ni vl muc dich hfla binh, Ody Id budc dflt phd quan trpng trong ddm phdn v l chuang trinh hgt nhdn bj nghi ngd cOa Tfl-hfl- ran sau hon 10 ndm b l t l o
Thda ttiufln ndy dupe ngudi 1-ran md ta Id mflt k i t qua "dfli bfln cOng cd Ipi". Bdi, l-ran s§
gidm bdt khd khdn v l kinh t l , d n My cd d i l u kifln d l gidm sdt chuong frinh hgt nhdn cua Tfl- hfl-ran vd It ra cung d l y Ifti, Idm chflm kha ndng l-ran sd hftu vQ khi hgt nhSn. Tuy nhifln, d n thay rdng, dSy mdi chi Id thda friufln tgm thdi, d u a cd gi chdc c h i n , chi d n mflt so xual nho cQng cfl fril d i n den d l vd. Nhd nghifln cftu Va-ll Ndt, Hiflu tmdng trudng Ogi hpc Gidn Hop-kin (My) dy bdo ring, kha ndng dgt dypc thda friufln cull cOng v l chyong trinh hat nhdn cOa l-ran Id 50% vd thdch friftc khflng chi d i n tft mflt bfln md ndm d v l hat phia. Vi phia Mp, d hai d n trd Idn xuat phdt d tft frong vd ngodi nudc. Ct trong nude, gidi bao thO trong qudc hfli nydc ndy ddi hdi d i n h quyln cua T i n g friong B. O-ba-ma kidn quylt khflng nhypng bfl tm-dc l-ran. Cf ngodi
nudc, cdc ddng minh chu ehot d Tmng Oflng, nhlt Id l-xra-en vd A-rap Xfl-Ot lufln "tiing bic, tieng chi" vdi My ve Thda thudn tgm thdi ngdy 24-11-2013, tiiam chl cPn dpa don phuong ddnh dfln phu d i u vdo cdc co s d hgt nhdn cOa 1-ran Ve phia l-ran, d n trd cQng khdng he nhd khi mdi ddy (ngdy 09-4-2014), Dgi Gido chu A. Kha-mo-ni ndi r i n g : cac hoat dflng nghifln cftu vd phdt tnen hgt nhdn cOa 1-ran cOng nhu cdc thdnh tyu hgt nhdn nudc ndy dgt duoc se khdng bao gid ngftng lai Mdt khde, cdc cuflc ddm phdn ve chuong trinh hgt nhdn cua Tfl-hfl-ran cQng cd nguy co gdp trd ngai do anh hudng cua cuflc khOng hoang d U-crai-na ddn tdi s y ddi dau ldn nhlt gifta Nga vd phuong Tdy k l tft sau chiln tranh Ignh.
Theo ede chuyfln gia phdn tich qudc l l , mgc do My vd 1-ran cdn thieu ldng tin ddi vdi nhau, nhung dudi gdc dfl Ipl Ich chiln lupc (cd trudc m i l vd Idu ddi) hai bfln deu cfl nhu cau hpp tdc.
Vdi 1-ran, chuong trinh hgt nhdn chi Id mflt van de trong nhieu v l n de tn?ng y l u cOa d l t node.
O l l u quan trpng Id, Te-hfl-ran can nhanh chdng ndng cao sftc mgnh t i n g hpp de trd thdnh cudng quoc cua khu vyc. Ban thdn l-ran cung h l l u ring, neu mgnh len till ca My, Nga, Tmng QuIc, An Dfl, EU vd Nhdt Ban deu m u l n hpp tSc vdi Tfl-hfl-ran vd nhy t h l hp mdi ndng cao dypc uy tin trong khu vyc. Vi till, nhieu kha ndng l-ran se c h i p nhfln Idm gidu u-ra-ni d d p dfl dudi 5%
vd cho phdp IAEA thanh sdt mpi co s d hgt nhdn cua nydc ndy. M$t khde, My cQng m u l n nhanh chdng blnh thydng hda quan h$ vd tien ldi hpp tdc chgt che vdi 1-ran, nhdm tftng bydc lien vdo Tmng A - Cdp-ca-do vd v u o n sang Tdy Tgng, Tdn Cyong cOa Trung QuIc d l thyc hifln myc tiflu chiln lupc. N i u ldp lufln trfln cfl co sd thl kha ndng dgt dupe thda thufln cudi cOng gifta P5 + 1 vd I-ran v l chuong trinh hgt nhdn cOa Tfl-hfl- ran se c6 nhieu triln vpng. nhung cOng phai trai qua khflng It d f l n g gai, t h d d friftc. Dy lufln qudc t l dang ky vpng vdo s y nS lyc h i t minh cua cdc bfln nhlm b i l n nguy co xung dflt thdnh CO hfli mang Igi hda binh, an ninh. thjnh vypng cho khu vyc vd t h l gidi •
TAP CHl QUOC PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 5/2014