Tap san so 02/2013 N g h i e n c i h i t r a o doi i'^. J-i. }3
NHAN OINH SO BQ XU THE THCfl TIET MUA MLTA LU N A M 2013 dTiNH DAK NONG
G Idhdi Q/\f^ ^^uyg - ^ ^ i n h hinh han hdn frdn dja bdn Tdy Nguydn ndi chung vd tinh Ddk Ndng ndi rieng dd vd dang 4 I didn ra gay gdt frSn dien rdng, gdy ra sy thilu hut nghidm frpng ngudn nudc phuc vy ndng
^ • ^ n g h i f p , thuy lgi, thfly difn, phuc vy ddi sdng nhan dan vd cac nganh kinh td khac. Trong bdi nay, chflng tdi thdng tin tdi ban dpc mdt sd net dac tnmg vd tinh hinh thdi tilt frong thdi gian vua qua va xu thl diSn bidn cfla chflng frong thdi gian sap tdi.
l . M p t s d d a c t n m g v l tinh hiuzh thdi tilt tfl thang 11 ndm 2012 din nua ddu thang 3 ndm 2013 Dac tiung ndi bat nhdt v l hf thdng hodh luu chi phdi thdi tiet tfnh Ddk Ndng frong thdi gian qua
la sy hoat ddng d pha trung gian cfla hifn tugng Enso. L Mua mtia nam 2012 d hdu hit cdc khu vyc tiong tinh dSu kit thuc phd bidn vao tiidn dau tiiang'
10 (khoang tfl ngay 10 din 15), sdm han trung bmh nhilu nam (TBNN) khoang 15 ngdy. D^c biet tfl dau thdng 11 nam 2012 din nfla ddu thang 3 nam 2013, tien dia ban tinh Ddk Ndng phd biln khdng mua hoac cd mua lugng nhd khdng ddng ke, da xuat hifn khd han, dac bift trdm frpng d cac khu vuc trong tinh dnh hudng nghiem frpng den sdn xuat ndng nghifp vd ddi sdng nhan dan.
Bdng 1: So lieu mua (mm) cdc thdng tgi mpt so dia diem dBdkNdng
Dia diim
Dak Nong
BJkMil
Cir Jut
Diic Xuyen
Dac tnmg
Luang raua So voi TBNN
Lugng mua So voi TBNN
Lugfng mua So vai TBNN
Lugng mua So vai TBNN
Thang 11-2012
149.4mm 188.6%
17.1mm 18.3%
16.4mm 20.2%
33.3mm 40.3%
Thang 12-2012
0.0mm 0.0%
0.5mm 2.5%
0.0mm 0.0%
0.0mm 0.0%
Thing 01-2013
2.3mm 14.6%
0.7mm 22.4%
0.0mm 0.0%
14.6mm 964.2%
Thang 02-2013
0.5mm 1.3%
0.8mm 12.1%
0.0mm 0.0%
0.0mm 0.0%
Tdng cong
152.2mm 99.3%
19.1mm 15.5%
• 16.4mm 16.3%
47.9mm 44.6%
Qua bang 1 chflng tdi cd dugc mdt buc franh toan cdnh khd ddy du ve tinh hinh mua cfla edc khu vuc d tinh Dak Nong frong cac thang mfla khd, hinh dnh dd cd thl dugc tdm tdt bang mdt sd kit ludn sau: tdng lugng mua d cdc nai phd biln dat thdp hon so vdi TBNN. So vdi TBNN binh qudn dat 44%; so vdi cimg tiidi ky nam trudc dat 40%.
[IS) J So-KH&CN >
Vlinh Bik None I
Nghien cuu trao doi Tap san so 02/2013
Biiu ddphdn bd lugng mua cdc thdng tgi mptsd dia diim aDdkNong:
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Tfl nhflng kit qud tinh todn vd phdn tich cdc hf thdng thdi tilt, trong thdi gian cdn lai cfla mua khd lugng mua d edc nai tiong tinh phd bidn d mure thap hon TBNN, ndng ndng xuat hifn va xdy ra nhidu dgt k^o ddi. Tinh fr^g ft mua vd khd han xdy ra gay gSt hon, rdng hon vd cd khd ndng din nfla culi thdng 4 vd ddu thdng 5/2013 sd ddn dugc cdi thifn. Tinh hinh mua it vd khd h^n trong thdi gian edn lai cfla mfla khd nhilu khd ndng xdy ra trdn difn rf ng, nhu cdu dflng nudc tang ldn, chflng ta cdn chfl df ng phdng chdng thih trang thilu nudc vd khd han trong thdi gian tdi.
Nln nhift df trung binh cdc thdng vfla qua tien pham vi toan tinh phd bidn cao hon TBNN, d$c bift cdc thdng II, 12/2012 nln nhift df cao hon nhilu so vdi TBNN (phd bidn tfli - 2"C).
Tfl nhQng phdn tich nhu tren, mfla mua ket thuc sdm, lugng mua ft cf ng vdi nln nhift df cao, nSn khd h^n Id dilu khdng the tidnh khdi.
2. N h ^ djnh sa bf tinh hinh thdi tiSt mfla mua lu ndm 2013
Tdng hgp cdc phuang phdp dy bdo, khd ndng diSn bidn thdi tidt trong cdc thdng tiep theo va miia mua lfl ndm 2013d tinh Ddk Ndng nhu sau:
- Nua cudi thdng 3 lugng mua d mue thdp han gid tii TBNN, thdng 4 d mflc cao hon TBNN (mua sd tap trung nhieu vdo cudi thdng 4/2013).
- Thdi k^ chuydn mfla vao trung tudn thdng 4. Cd khd nang mfla mua d Tay Nguydn ndi chung vd tinh Ddk Ndng ndi riSng din sdm hon so vdi binh thudng (khodng cudi flidng 4 vd ddu thdng 5/2013).
- Lugng mua mua mua lu ndm 2013: nua ddu mfla lugng mua phd bien cao hon gia tri TBNN;
nua cudi mfla (tfl tiidng 8 - 10/2013) d muc xdp xi vdi TBNN eflng thdi ky.
Ddu ndm 2013, bdo vd dp thdp nhift ddi da xudt hifn rat sdm d phfa Nam Biln Ddng; dilu ndy cho thdy, frong mfla mua lu ndm 2013, tinh hinh flidi tiet tren ph^m vi todn tinh s6 cd didn biln phflc t9p. cdn chfl df ng d l phdng bdo manh gay mua ldn sinh ra lu quet, s^t Id ddt d cdc khu vyc, d|ic bift tai cdc khu vyc trung thip./.
/^ SIT KH&CN \ _
^tinh Pgk N6n&y~