te va tac dpng cua no den nen Icinh te Viet Nam
D A N G THI PHlTCiNG H O A
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6ng Nhdn ddn te cua Trung Qudc vda daOc ehdp thudn dOa vdo gio tien te cua Quy Tiin ti qud'c ti'cung vdi dong dd la My, ddng Euro, yen Nhdt vd bdng Anh, bat ddu cd hieu lOc td 1-10-2016. Bdi viet daa ra ddnh gid ban ddu ve tdc dong co theco di'n kinh te'Viet Nam.TitldKtaxNhdn ddn te, quyin riit t}dn dqc biM, chinh sdc^
X, G i d i t h i e u
Ngay 30-11-2015, Quy T i l n td qudc te (IMF) tuyen bd ddng Nhdn ddn td (NDT) eua Trung Qudc du d i l u kidn d^ dUa vao gid t i l n td qud'c td', cdn dUde gpi la q u y i n n i t vdn dac bidt (SDR). Hai tidu chf de dUdc dUa mot ddng t i l n quoc gia vao gid t i l n te dU trQ quoc te' la nU6c p h a t h a n h dong t i l n do phai la mdt nUdc xud't kh^u Idn va d i n g t i l n dd phai dUde tt^ do sd dung (tu do sxi dung chU khdng phai la tii do ehuyen ddi). Cac ehi sd'ehinh dd do ludng k h a nang tU do sd dung eua mot dong t i l n bao gom ty le cua dong t i l n nay dUdc sii dung trong dii trfl ngoai hdi cua cac ngan hang t r u n g Udng (NHTW) t r e n toan the' gidi, tai san nd n g a n hang qud'c t l , chUng khoan nd toan c l u va khd'i lUpng dUde sd d i ^ g trdn cac thi trUdng ngoai hd'i. Day la ddt thay ddi d a n h mue SDR d i u tien cua IMF ke t d n a m 1999, th6i did'm dong Euro thay t h d ddng mac DUc vk dong franc P h a p .
Hidn tai gio t i l n td qud'c te'' gdm 4 loai t i l n td la ddla My, Euro, yen N h a t va bang Anh.
k e td ngay 1-10-2016, NDT se trd t h a n h d6ng t i l n thU 5 trong gio SDR vdi ty trong tUdng dng l l n lUdt Id 42% (USD), 3 1 % (EUR), 11% (CNY), 8% (JPY) va 8% (GBP).
Trpng so' dong t i l n se a n h hudng dd'n lai s u a t vay t i l n tii IMF.
Vide IMF da quyd't dinh thdm dong NDT vao gid t i l n dU trii qud'c te' t h e hien mpt dau mdc quan trong trong su hdi nh^p cua Trung Qud'c vao hd thdng tdi chinh toan c l u .
2. M o t so' c a n cii ly t h u y e t
Nhin t u mdc 30-11-2015 tr^ lai lich sd v a n dung chinh sdch dong NDT cua T n m g Qud'e, ca n h a n ngudi vie't nhin n h a n chinh sach cua Trung Qud'c chia t h a n h 2 glEU doan ldn: chfnh sach ddng t i l n yd'u dd qudc te' hda h a n g hda Trung Qudc, khi siic m a n h thUdng m a i tdi h a n thi chuyen sang chinh sach dong tien manh.
V6i n h d n g ddng vdn ngan h a n sud't n h i l u t h a p ky qua, Trung Qudc duy t n nhflng bien p h a p kiem soat chat che. Chinh sach md ciia
Dang Thi Phuong Hoa, TS., Vifin Kinh t^ Viet Nam.
1. IMF khdi d6ng xem x6t SDR vao nam 1969, nham thiic ddy thanh khodn to^n cSu. Tuy SDR v^ mat ky thuat kh6ng phai 1& m6t d6ng ti^n, song no cho phep cdc nut^c thanh vifin IMF dang nam giu' c6 quy^n si^ dung bat ky d6ng ti^n nao trong gio ti^n tfi n&y nhim dap ihig nhu c^u cin can thanh todn. Co quan quyft dmh tfii cao ciia IMF Id H6i d6ng thdng ddc bao g6m m6t nhom cac bp tnrdng tli chinh va lanh dao ngdn hdng Trung Utmg tCf 188 qudc gia thdnh vifin. H6i ddng thdng ddc chon ra mfit ban ehdp hSnh g6m 24 gidm ddc di^u hdnh c6 nhifim vu dai difin va thuc thi hdu he't cdc quy^n han c6a Hfii dfing. Hfii d6ng thdng d6c hpp mat 200 Idn mfii nam va thucmg ra quy€t dinh dua trfin d6ng thuan chii khfing phai dudi hinh thiic bo phifi'u chfnh thiic. Mark Sobel, giam ddc di^u hdnh ngudi My. nim giii quy^n bo phifi'u cao nhdt vdi 17%.
Nh6m 7 qu6c gia di6u hinh ndm giQ t6ng cfing 43%, trong khi d6, Trung Qudc chi nim gift 3,8%.
Nghiin cOu Kinh tff sff 451 - Thing 12/2015 23
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d i l n r a d i n d i n tU n a m 1978, T r u n g Qudc v l n gan nhU khdng c6 sU t h a m gia cua nhflng n g a n h a n g nUdc ngoai. Den cudi n a m 2007, 193 n g a n h a n g nU6c ngoai t h a m gia vao linh vUc dich vu t a i chinh cua T r u n g Qudc thi cung chi chid'm mdt thi p h i n ra't nho, khoang 2,4% tdng t a i san cua n g a n hang^.
Tren thi trUdng chflng khoan h a n g A, n h a d i u t u nUdc ngoai bdt d i u dUdc t h a m gia tii n a m 2002 nhd vao chUdng t r i n h QFII. Cudi n a m 2007, h a n mdc QFII b mflc khoang 10 ty USD, khoang 3% gia t r i vd'n hda giao dich trdn thi trUdng chflng khoan.
Mdi n h a d i u tfl nfldc ngoai chi dfldc m u a 10% cd phieu cua cae cdng ty nidm yet. 0 thi trfldng trdi phid'u cua T r u n g Quoc, sfl t h a m gia cua nfldc ngoai cdn hi h a n chd' hdn. Nam 2007, nhflng n g a n h a n g nflde ngoai cl Trung Qud'c chi gifl 0,5% Ifldng t r a i phie'u dang lUu hanh^.
Mpt trong nhflng h a u q u a cua chinh sach kiem scat k h i c nghiet va vai trd h a n che' cua d a n h muc d i u tfl nfldc ngoai la t h i trUdng vd'n cua T r u n g Qud'c tfldng dd'i nhd so vdi GDP, dac bidt so vdi cac nude edng nghiep^. Vi t h i t r u d n g vdn tUdng dd'i nhd ndn nhflng khoan vay n g a n h d n g chie'm 70 - 90% t r u n g gian tai chinh d thdi ky trfldc k h u n g hoang^. Sii p h a t trien h a n chd' cua thi trfldng nd va thi trfldng vd'n p h a n a n h mdt thfle te' la he thd'ng ngan h a n g n h a nfldc mpt minh mdt san dd'i vdi ca ngUdi gdi vk ngudi di vay, ddng vai trd q u a n trpng do'i vdi md h i n h t a n g trU6ng cua T r u n g Qudc.
Co 2 ly do: thd nhdt, viec mb rdng tdi k h o a n vd'n c6 ihi d i n den nhflng ddng vd'n d a u cd khie'n cho ty gia trci ldn bd't dn va kho kiem soat hdn. Su dn dinh cua ty gia NDT (thfldng la bi d a n h gid tha'p) cung vdi lao dpng gia re la nhflng n h d n to chinh m a n g Iai ldi n h u a n cho linh vflc xua't k h a u cua T r u n g Qud'c. Tha hai, vide ap d a t kiem soat vd'n tao r a ddng vd'n dau vao cho cac n g a n h a n g qud'c doanh, bdi vi cac hd gia dinh se cd it sfl lUa chpn hdn trong vide gdi tiet
kidm ngoai trfl viec d i n gdi d ngan hang nay^. Sii kiem s c a t dong vdn r a cung han che' ldi n h u a n tfl bdn ngoai cua cac quy dau tfl ldn b T r u n g Qud'c. Hdn nfla, sfl thie'u hut eua t h i trfldng cd phieu co t i n h thanh k h o a n cao va t h i trfldng t r a i phie'u lai cang t a o d i l u kidn cho ddng t i l n tiet kidm chay vdo cac n g a n h a n g do thie'u di n h d n g cd h6i d a u t u n g d n h a n . Cud'i eung, cac ngan hang nfldc ngoai chie'm mot t h i p h i n rd't nho nen c a n g khie'n ddng t i l n tiet kiem chay vao cac n g a n h a n g qud'c doanh. Ke't qua Id cac ngan h a n g qud'c doanh T r u n g Qud'c s6 hflu luon ngudn vd'n gid re de cung ca'p nhflng khoan vay lai s u a t tha'p cho cac doanh nghidp nha nfldc^. Sfl bao hp cua Chinh p h u da tao ra ldi n h u a n ldn cho n g a n h n g a n hdng nay ndn vide ndi long k i e m soat von la de doa ldi n h u a n va sfl tdn t a i eua nhflng ngan haiig qud'c doanh vi nd gay a n h hfl6ng x^u dd'n n g u I n vd'n gia re dd'i vdi cdc doanh n g h i d p n h a nfldc, ddc bidt la nhflng doanh
2. Hope, N. and Hu, F. (2006), Reforming China's banking system: How much can foreign strategic investment help? In: J. Aziz, S. Dunaway and E.S. Prasad (eds.) China and India: Learning from Each Other Reforms and Policies for Sustained Growth. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, pp 33-83.
3. Hansakul, S., Dyck, S. and Kem, S. (2009), China's financial markets - A hiture global force? Frankfurt, Germany: Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank Current Issues, 16 March.
4. Nam 2003, thi trucmg trdi phi^u cfing ty cua Trung Qudc chi chi^m chua de'n 1% GDP, so vdi 6 My la 140%
v l EU Id 85% (Ji va Thomas, 2005). Vfin h6a trung buih trfin thi trudng trong khoang thdi gian til nam 1998 d^n nam 2007 1145,65 GDP dTrung Qufic, so v6i 19,1% d&
voi Nhat Ban v l 140,4% 6 My (Wu v l cfing su, 2010).
5. Thomas, S. and Ji, C. (2006), Banking on reform.
The China Business Review 33(3): 20-26.
6. Prasad, E.S. (2009) Is Ihe Chinese growth miracle built to last? China Economic Review 20(1): 103-123.
?. Sender, H. (2013), Chinese seek change as continuity rules, Financial Times, 19 March, http://www.ft.eom/intl/cms/s/0/8107d8e6-90ac-Ue2-a45 6-00144feabdc0.html.
24 Nghiin cdu Kmh Iff sff 451 - Thing 12/2015
n g h i e p cd t y le d i u tfl cao^ N a m 2006, d o a n h n g h i e p thudc sd hflu n h a nfldc chi chiem 8% so' d o a n h nghidp s a n xud't nhflng c h u n g ddng gdp 36% td'ng gia t r i s a n xud't gia tdng^. N e u h o a t ddng d i u tfl cua nhflng d o a n h nghidp ndy hi de dpa bdi s u t a n g chi p h i vd'n t h i md h i n h t a n g trfldng cua T r u n g Qudc cd le se t h a y doi d a n g ke.
Bdn c a n h nhflng n h d m ldi ich, vide kiem soat vd'n giup cho n h a nfldc cd t h ^ duy t r i mflc k i e m s c a t nhd't d i n h dd'i vdi n e n k i n h te. T a i k h o a n vd'n co t i n h md hdn cd t h e d i n d e n l u o n g vd'n ldn chay r a ngoai vk k h u n g h o a n g n g a n h a n g . Nhflng viec k i e m soat vdn c u n g khie'n eho cac quoc gia di ehdch k h d i eac c h i n h sach vi md, t h i c h l va t a i c h i n h t h e o hfldng tfl do hoa. Bang each k i e m soat vd'n, d mdt mflc dp nao dd, T r u n g Qud'c cd t h d k i e m soat va dinh hfldng ddng vdn ndi dia cung nhfl kich thieh t a n g trfldng k i n h te^°. Nhflng lflc Ifldng n a y theo q u a n d i l m eua G r a m s c i a n , trfldc khi k h u n g h o a n g t a i e h i n h todn c l u d i l n r a , da h i n h t h a n h len lien m i n h nhflng t h a n h p h a n k h a c n h a u t r o n g xa hdi dfldc td chflc ve m a t c h i n h t r i m a n g tfl tfldng ba chu^^
Lien m i n h n a y nhd thd' ma kidm ldi cflng nhfl u n g ho h i n h thfle k i l m soat vdn eua T r u n g Qudc.
Sfl ndi long k i l m soat vd'n, t u y nhien, da d i n d i n didn r a trfldc k h u n g hoang, t a n g d a n va d a t de'n td'c dp nha't d i n h s a u k h u n g h o a n g . D a u tidn, ddng vd'n nUdc ngoai vao t h i t r u d n g t a i c h i n h T r u n g Qud'e t a n g len dang k l . U y b a n D i l u tiet chflng k h o a n T r u n g Qud'c tid'n h d n h mcl rdng QFII vdi h a n mflc t a n g d a n tfl 10 ty len de'n 150 t y U S D vao t h a n g 7 - 2013, chfldng t r i n h mdi R Q F I I cho p h e p ngfldi nfldc ngodi d i u tfl vao t h i trfldng chflng k h o a n T r u n g Qud'c vdi h a n mflc t a n g tfl mflc b a n d i u la 20 t y CNY len mflc 294,4 ty vao t h a n g 10- 2 0 1 4 ' - .
M a t k h a c , ddng vd'n r a cua T r u n g Qud'c c u n g t a n g ldn. H a n mflc d i u t u cho p h e p t a n g tfl 42,17 ty USD vao n a m 2007 ldn tdi
87,373 ty U S D vao t h a n g 10-2014'^ Mdt ddi mdi nfla la chfldng t r i n h Qualified Domestic Limited P a r t n e r cho p h e p cac quy d i u tfl nfldc ngoai k h a i t h a c n g u o n tid't kidm cua T r u n g Qud'c t u y vdi mfle t r i n k h a tha'p (khoang 5 ty USD). H a n mflc m u a ca n h a n d cdc s a n giao dich nfldc ngoai t d n g ldn vao n a m 2007 tfl mflc 20.000USD Idn de'n 5 0 . 0 0 0 U S D "
T r u n g Qud'c can t h a y ddi md h i n h t a n g trfldng de tie'p t u e t a n g trfldng k i n h t e . Hdn niia, md hinh t a n g trfldng c i n Ifldng dU trfl ddla ldn ndy phai dfldc thay ddi de chdng lai su chi phdl cua dong ddla My. Khung hoang eho tha'y sii dd bi tdn thUdng cua Trung Qudc. De thach thfle sfl ehi phdi cua dong ddla My thi Trung Qud'c c i n mdt dong tien dfldc qudc td' hda va dfldc cha'p n h a n trdn toan the' gidi. D i l u ndy yeu c l u phai cd thi trudng tai chinh tU do, phat t r i l n sau va t h a n h khoan dong thdi phai md cda hoan toan thi trudng vd'n. Tuy nhidn, nhU t r i n h bdy b phia trdn, vide ndi long tai khoan vd'n lai xung dot vdi md hinh tdng trUSng theo hudng d i u t u vd xudt k h i u .
Nhom thfl nhdt va la lflc Ifldng ehinh dflng dang sau sfl m6 cfla tai khoan vdn la mdt nhom chu trfldng cai each kinh te', dae bidt la chuydn gia ky thuat, chuydn gia hpc thuat, chuydn gia p h a n tich ddc lap t r o n g n h d m cd'va'n v l cac 8. Yao, K. (2013), Analysis: China central bank takes lead in economic reform push. Reuters, 24 February
9. McNally, C A . (2012), Sino-capitalism: China's reemergence and the intemational political economy.
World Politics 64(4): 741-776.
10. McNally, C A . (2012), da dSn.
11. Gill, S. (2003), Power and Resistance in the New World Order. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan,
12. China-XBR (2014b), R Q F n total quota:
RMB278.6bn. China-XBR, 30 October, http://china- xbr.com/ xbr-quota-data/rqfii
13. China-XBR (2014b), da din.
14. Ji B. (2011), SAFE denies increased c ^ cm individual foreign exchange buys. People's Daily OnUne, 16 March.
http://english.people.com,cn/90001/90776/7322208.html
Nghiin ciiu Kinh tff sff 451 - Thing 12/2015 2 5
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va^n d l qud'c gia. Ho p h i n ldn la dflde dao t a o cl phfldng Tay theo trfldng p h a i kinh t l t a n cd dien, chi phoi cac k h o a kinh te cua cac trfldng dai hoc d T r u n g Quoc vk bd p h a n l a n h dao^°. Muc dich chinh la khien cho n i n kinh te trong nfldc m a n g n h i l u t i n h dinh hudng t h i t r u d n g hdn, t h u h u t dupc n h i l u ddng von quoc te' vd d a n theo nhflng tieu chudn cua qudc td'. Cd q u a n q u a n trong trong n h d m cac ehuyen gia ndy la Ngan h a n g N h a n d a n T r u n g Qude (PBOC), CO a n h hfldng nha't trong cae va'n de kinh te' cua nhflng n a m cuoi thdp nien 1990. Vide chuyen ddi tien t e va tU do hoa tai khoan vdn khdng chi n h u la mdt muc tidu, ma cdn la sflc ep t h a y ddi md h i n h tdng trfldng npi dia. Tfldng tfl n h u vide Trung Qude gia n h a p WTO vao n a m 2001, cac n h a cai each trong nU6c dung cdng cu ben ngodi de tao sflc ep khien cac t h e iflc trong nfldc ba't dac di phai cha'p n h d n tfl do hda trong nfldc b mflc dp rdng hdn'^.
Nhdm thfl h a i u n g hd viec tfl do hda tfl b a n t a i chinh la nhdm ngfldi giau cd d T r u n g Qudc. Nhfl da ndu d trdn, d i u tU cua doanh nghidp n h a nUdc Id phu thudc vao nguon vdn gia re tfl n g a n h a n g n h a nfldc, m a ngudn vdn gia re co dfldc la nhd vao lai sua't tha'p tfl lUdng ldn t i l n giii cua cdc hd gia dinh. Rd r a n g r a n g t i n g ldp giau cd cua T r u n g Qud'e thUcfng ed q u a n hd c h a t ehe vdi Chinh phu, vi vdy tfl lau da tim kiem ldi n h u ^ n cao hdn t r e n von'^. Khoang 1% cac hd gia dinh sd hflu tfl 30 den 50% cae khoan t i l n gdi n g a n h a n g , ndn ddng l u a n c h u y i n vdn cua nhflng ngUdi giau cd cung cd t h e cd mdt tae ddng d a n g ke den n e n kinh te T r u n g Qud'c. Trong ba't cfl t i n h hudng nao, nhflng ngfldi T r u n g Qudc giau cd cung se khdng bang long vdi viec ldi n h u d n thd'p hodc a m t r e n vdn, viec di chuyen vdn r a nfldc ngodi (du hdp p h a p h a y b ^ t h^p phap) dfldc xem nhfl la mot trong nhflng chien Iflde de cd t h e dat dflde ldi n h u a n cao hdn'®.
De vfldt q u a sfl p h a n doi t r o n g nfldc, bien
p h a p qudc t e hda ddng NDT dflde diing nhu la mpt ke hoach n h d m ba chu the' gidi thdng qua day m a n h tfl do hda t a i k h o a n vd'n'^.
Tie'p theo, vide tfl do hda t a i k h o a n vd'n dfldc cho la se t a o r a sflc dp t h a y doi md h i n h t a n g trUdng tfl diia vdo xua't khau s a n g dUa vdo tidu t h u trong nudc. Thi t r u d n g hda va sii p h a t tridn cua thi trudng vd'n di cung vdi sfl md eda dfldc ky vpng la c i n t h i e t de giai quye't vd'n de nhfl ba't binh ddng t h u n h d p va d n h i l m mdi trfldng. K l hoach 5 n a m l l n thfl 11 va 12 d i u xem viec chuyen dd'i tai k h o a n vdn la mdt muc tidu chinh saeh. Hdi n g h i l a n thfl ba vdo thang 11 - 2013 da k h a n g dinh, chuyen ddi dong NDT cd t h e d a t dfldc vdo ndm 2020^°. Ve m a t cam kd't chinh tri, n h i e m vu chuyen doi t a i khoan vdn da rd r a n g .
T h a n g 1-2007, l l n d i u tidn T r u n g Qudc da thfle hidn viec p h a t h a n h t r a i phieu bdng ddng NDT r a nfldc ngoai t a i Hong Kdng vdi t e n gpi c h u n g la " t r a i p h i e u Dim
15. Wu F., Pan R, and Wang, D, (2010), Renminbi's potential to become a global currency. China & World Economy 18(1): 63-81,
16. Subramanian A. (2011), The yuan: the proposer's opening remarks. The Economist, 20 September, http://
economist,coni/debate/days/view/756
17. Lardy N, and Douglass P. (2011), Coital Accouni Liberalization and the Role of the Renminbi. Washington DC: Peterson Institute for Intemational Economics.
Working paper series 11-6.
18. Oiancellor. E. (2011), China investors: Beware of inequality. Financial Times, 5 June, http://www,ft.com/
intl/cms/s/0/b254e632-8elO-l IeO-bee5- 00144feab49a.html
19. Otero-Iglesias, M. and Vermeiren, M, (2015), China's state-permeated market economy and its constraints to the internationalization of the renminbi.
IntematiOTal Politics 52(6): 684-703.
20. Li, F. and Zhou, X. (2013), PBOC will 'basically' end normal yuan intervention: Zhou. Bloomberg, 19 November, http://www.bloomberg.com/news^l3- lI-19/pboc-will-basically-exit-nonnal-yuanintervention- zhou-says.hlnil.
Nghiin aiu Kinh tff sff 451 - Thing 12/2015
S u m " ^ \ d a y la bfldc t h d n g h i e m d a u t i d n cua T r u n g Qud'c vd t h i trfldng t r a i phie'u Dim S u m da thfle sfl h o a t ddng tich cUc k h i T r u n g Quoc cho p h e p cac n h a d i u tU nUdc ngoai md t a i k h o a n b a n g dong N D T t a i Hdng Kdng vk dflde tfl do dd'i ngoai t e . N a m 2010, n h d m t a o t h u a n ldi cho ede cdng t y n u d e ngoai giao dich thUdng m a i b a n g d i n g NDT d i u tfl trb l^i t h i trfldng T r u n g Qud'c, T r u n g Qud'e cho p h e p cac cdng t y T r u n g Qudc va mdt so edng ty nfldc ngoai dUdc p h a t h a n h t r a i phie'u b a n g ddng NDT. Mc Donald's da trd t h a n h cdng ty nude ngodi bdn ngoai T r u n g Qud'c d a u tidn p h a t h d n h t r a i p h i e u Dim S u m " . De'n t h a n g 10-2014, cac e h i n h p h u nUdc ngoai c u n g dUdc p h e p p h a t h a n h t r a i phie'u b ^ n g dong NDT. Do t r a i phid'u n a y p h a t h a n h t h e o l u ^ t Hong Kdng, cae n h a d a u tfl nflde ngodi k h d n g lo l a n g v l t i n h t r a n g t h i e u cac quy dinh p h d p ly m i n h bach cua t h i trfldng t a i c h i n h T r u n g Qud'c.
Hdn nfla, lai sua't p h a t h a n h t r a i phid'u t r e n t h i t r u d n g Hong Kdng tha'p hdn t r o n g ndi dia T r u n g Qud'c, khid'n cac cdng ty p h a t h a n h cua T r u n g Qud'c cd t h i v a y vdn tfl nfldc ngoai vdi gia re d l d i u tfl, gop p h i n gia t a n g thfldng m a i q u a bidn gidi.
T h a n g 9-2013, T r u n g Qud'c k h d i ddng t h i d i l m k h u vflc tfl do thUdng m a i (FTZ) ThUf^ng H a i . T r u n g Qud'c cdn sd d u n g ddc k h u thUdng m a i tfl do Thfldng H a i de t h d nghiem phfldng p h a p tiep can d i u t u nudc ngoai mdi. Cac d o a n h n g h i e p h o a t ddng bdn t r o n g FTZ cd moi t r u d n g d i u tfl cdi md, g i n n h u k h d n g gidi h a n v l ddng vd'n luu t h d n g . C h i n h vi the', viec t h i diem n a y dUdc xem n h u qua t r i n h t h i n g h i e m de di tdi h i n h t h a n h t h i trUdng t a i c h i n h tU do cho T r u n g Qud'e. Dd Id mdt t r o n g nhflng ed sd q u a n t r p n g d l ddng NDT d a p flng cae ydu c l u bid'n ddng dfla t r e n t h i trfldng, ehfl k h d n g p h a i do n h a nflde can t h i e p .
Mpt t r o n g cae no lflc eua T r u n g Quoc n h a m t h u c d^y giao dich d i n g NDT t r e n p h a m vi quoc t e Id ChUdng t r i n h K i t nd'i
t h i t r u d n g chflng k h o a n ThUdng H a i va t h i t r u d n g chflng k h o a n Hdng Kdng. Chfldng t n n h nay cho phep cac cdng ty dau tfl va mdi gidi cd the giao dich eac chflng khoan nidm yd't t r e n hai thi trfldng. Thi trUdng chflng khoan k i t noi ndy dflng thfl hai t h e gidi v l mflc vd'n hda ciing nhfl sd edng ty nidm yet vk dflng thfl ba the gidi v l doanh thu. Ngdy 18- 11-2015, tai Dflc, t r u n g t a m giao dich chflng khodn niem yet bang dong NDT dau tidn b ben ngodi bien gidi Trung Qud'e da di vao hoat dpng. He thd'ng nay tao ed hpi cho eac n h a dau tfl todn c l u tid'p can vdi khoang 200 danh muc chflng khoan bao gIm t r a i phid'u va quy ETF^^
B a n t h a n c h i n h sach ty gia m a T r u n g Qud'e d a n g thfle hidn cung p h u c v u cho muc tidu bien dong NDT t h d n h mdt dong t i l n t o a n c l u . Mue t i e u n a y dfldc t a n g td'c m a n h me s a u cudc k h u n g h o a n g t a i c h i n h t o a n c l u ^ \ Md dfl dia rdng eho ddng N D T va tao vi t h e ngfldi chdi ldn t r e n t h i trfldng, T r u n g Qudc d a n g d u n g a n h hfldng t a i c h i n h lam n e n t a n g q u y i n lflc d l n d n g cao vi the' t o a n eau. Khi cac cUdng qud'c khac, n h u My va C h a u Au, d a n g suy ye'u v l t a i ehinh, q u y i n lUc t a i c h i n h ed t h e t r d n e n rd't q u a n t r p n g t r o n g nd lUc n a n g t a m a n h h u d n g cua T r u n g Qud'c. Viec s d d u n g dong NDT dUdc md rdng, q u a n h e k i n h tl"
qudc td' se can b a n g hdn.
21. Trdi phieu do Ngdn hing phdt tri^n Trung Qudc phdt hanh v6i ten goi 11 Dim Sum (Diem tam). Tfin duoc dat theo mfit loai hinh dm thuc Trung Qudc bao gfim rd't nhilu mon an nhe, thucmg phuc vu bQa sdng.
22. De'n h^t nam 2014, thi phdn trdi phi6u Dim Sum theo nha phdt hinh nhu sau: Trung Qudc luc dia (49%); H6ng Kfing (20%); Dire (4%); Han Qu6c (4%);
My (3%); cdc nudc khdc (20%). Sri Lanka la nudc m6i nhit dang cdn nhdc phdt hanh trdi phi^O Dim Sum trong nim 2015. (Ngudn: Hifip hfii cdc thj tnrdng tdi chinh vd chihig khodn Chdu A, ASIFMA),
23. http://cafef,vn/tai-chinh-quoc-te/nguoi-duc-chap-ca nh-uoc-mo-quoc-te-hoa-cua-nhan-dan-te-2015111817234 5663,chn.
24. Martin Feldstein (2013), China's new path.
Project Syndicate 29-3-2013.
Nghiin Cliu Kinh tff sff 451 • Thing 12/2015 27
Dong Nhan dan te ..
H I N H 1: C h a n g d i f d n g g i a n h a p t h i tvvliSng q u o c t e c u a N D T Bi^n ddng cua NDT tai Trung Qn6c so vdi USD td nam 1994
' • • 4 ' - « 6 ' » « ' « 7 ' » a ' - » ' t » ' o i ' t a ' - M 0^ x» -oe -07-06 • • M ' I O * -n ' - o ' - u ' - w ' - t t * Ngudn: Bloomberg,
4. Thufc t r a n g g i a o d i c h t h a n h t o a n b d n g N D T t r e n t h e gidi
Cac q u a n chflc T r u n g Qud'c ludn tich cflc tim kiem vai trd 16n h d n trdn t r u d n g qudc td eho d i n g NDT, Chinh p h u T r u n g Qud'c ludn thuc giuc eae Quy t i l n td qud'c td' tuyen b d dong NDT cung nhU ddla My, Euro, b a n g Anh va dong y e n Nhdt la ddng t i l n dfl trfl chinh thfle cua I M F . Ve m a t v a n dpng h a n h lang, n a m 2009, B i c Kinh da t h a n h cdng t r o n g viec dfla dng Chu Dan, tflng gifl ehfle Phd thd'ng dd'c Ngan h a n g T r u n g fldng T r u n g Qud'c, vao vi t r i Phd tong gidm dd'e IMF. Ben canh do, Trung Qude eung cac t h a n h vidn cdn l a i trong nhdm BRICS (Braxin, Nga, An Dp, Trung Qud'c, Nam Phi) hinh t h a n h n e n Ngan h a n g P h a t t r i l n Mdi de canh t r a n h vdi I M F . Ngodi r a , Trung Qude cung cd n h i l u bien p h a p gay sflc dp vdi IMF va My nhU t h a n h lap Ngan h a n g Cd sd h a t a n g C h a u A (AHB), Ngan h a n g P h a t trien mdi cua cac nudc BRICS (NDB), t r a n h t h u sii u n g hd eua My qua chuye'n t h a m cua dng Tap Can Binh vao t h a n g 9-2015.
Hien n a y cd hdn 1.000 n g a n h a n g tai 100 nUdc ed t h i t h a n h toan b a n g dong NDT tai T r u n g Qudc d a i luc va Hong Kdng - tang k h o a n g 20% so vdi 2 n a m trudc. Mac dd k h o a n g 70% hoat ddng t h a n h toan dong NDT d i l n r a t a i Hong Kdng n h u n g ed hdn 10 t r u n g t d m t h a n h toan hfl trfl khdc da dfldc t h i e t l a p t r e n t o a n the' gidi trong thcli gian g a n ddy, t r o n g dd cd Kuala Lampd (Malaixia), Xi't-ni (Uc) va Bdng Kd'c (Thai Lan).
T r u n g Qude eung N g a n h a n g Trung fldng Anh, Ngan h a n g T r u n g Udng C h a u Au va h a n g chuc n g a n h a n g t r u n g Udng khac da ky thoa t h u a n h o a n d l i t i l n t e . Mdt sd n g a n h d n g va t r u n g t a m t a i chinh khac eflng dang pha'n da'u t r d t h a n h t r u n g tam giao dieh dong NDT. T r u n g Qud'e ddng thcli p h a t t r i l n cac t r u n g t a m giao dieh ding NDT b nflde ngodi. S a u chuyen t h a m Anh vao 11-2015 c u a dng T a p Can Binh, PBOC va BoE da t a n g kich cd c u a cac hdp dong h o a n dd'i t i l n t e t i i 200 ldn 350 ty CNY.
Tong s d nfldc d a cung T r u n g Qudc ky cac hdp dong h o a n ddi t i l n td da len tdi g i n 30
2 8 Nghiin cOU Kinh tff sff 451 - Thing 12/2015
nfldc. c a c t h a n h t o a n b a n g d i n g NDT t a n g d i u d a n . T r o n g t h a n g 8-2015, Ifldng giao dieh d nfldc ngoai t h a n h t o a n b a n g ddng NDT t a n g 50% so vdi cung ky n a m ngoai va t a n g 20% so vdi t h a n g 7-2015, l l n d a u t i e n vfldt 1 t r i e u giao dich t r o n g mdt t h a n g .
5. T a c d o n g b a n d a u d ^ n V i e t N a m D i n g NDT cua T r u n g Qud'c vao gid SDR se tac ddng da c h i i u ddi vdi cdc t h i trfldng t a i chinh, vdi c h i n h T r u n g Qud'c va vdi Viet N a m . TrUdc m a t , sfl kien ndy vfla h i e n thfle hda cd hdi, nhflng vfla d a t r a t h d c h thfle ldn lidn q u a n dd'n n g h i a v u thi trUcJng, budc T r u n g Qudc p h a i t u a n t h u nguydn t i c bdt can thidp vao t h i t r u d n g hdn, ndn dong NDT t r o n g thdi gian tdi se linh hoat hdn theo quy ludt cung c l u t h i t r u d n g . I M F se can n h i l u cd sd t i n cdy hdn de bao d a m t y gia hdi doai e h u l n va lai sud't d i n g NDT se dfldc ap dung. Hdn nfla, I M F cung se yeu e l u PBOC k i l m chd can thidp t i l n te. N h u vdy, r a n g bupe n a y iam cho bid'n dpng NDT de tidn lidu hdn. Kich b a n t h u d n c h i i u la n h u vay. T r e n thfle t e , k i n h t l T r u n g Qud'c dang t r o n g giai doan d i l n bie'n kho lfldng, xud't k h i u suy giam va k i n h te t a n g cham lai. Thdi gian de'n 1-10-2016, tae ddng tfl nhflng b i l n ddng n h i l u tidu cflc hdn tich efle cua n i n k i n h t e T r u n g Qud'c cd t h e budc Chinh p h u T r u n g Qud'c p h a i ed nhflng dieu ehinh k h d n g ed ldi cho p h i n cdn lai cua thd' gidi.
Vdi Viet N a m , trfldc tien p h a i k h d n g dinh, viec ddng NDT vdo gid SDR ehde c h i n ed tac ddng dd'n cac vd'n d l nhfl xua't n h a p k h a u , hoat ddng nhfl du lich, nd nUdc ngoai, t h a m chi la ty gia. N h i n mdt each e h u n g nha't, t r e n t h i trUcJng t i l n td, t u y eung mpt gid, n h u n g sflc a n h hfldng cua eac ddng tien (ddla My, y e n N h a t , dong E u r o , b a n g Anh) hidn eung k h a c n h a u . Viet N a m hidn t a i vfin c h u t r o n g giao dieh qud'e t l b a n g cac dong t i l n kia, n h i l u nha't la b a n g ddla My. T h a n h t o d n b i n g dong NDT mdi chi chid'm 2-4% t i n g gia t r i thfldng m a i cua
Viet Nam^^. T u y nhidn, vdi quy md thUdng m a i gifla h a i nUde vdo k h o a n g 60-65 t y U S D / n a m va cdn t i l p t u e gia t a n g t h i chdc c h i n ty t r p n g giao dich b a n g d i n g NDT cung se t a n g d a n t r o n g q u a n h e thUdng m a i vdi T r u n g Qud'c h a y cac k h o a n v a y nd, ODA tfl T r u n g Qud'c. Vdi ddng vd'n n g a n h a n , mflc d a u tfl cua T r u n g Qude vdo t h i trfldng chflng k h o a n Viet N a m k h o a n g 6-7 ty USD^^. d a n h gia v l tac ddng b a n d i u chfla d a n g kd.
Nhap k h a u tfl Trung Qud'c dang chiem tdi 25% tdng gia tri nhdp k h i u cua Viet N a m ndn vide dong NDT t a n g gia ed t h e a n h hfldng ra't ldn tdi kinh td' trong nfldc. Nguydn n h d n n h a p sieu tU Trung Qude ed t h e thd'y la ehung t a le thudc qua nhieu vao vide vay vd'n tfl cac quy hd trd xud't k h i u cua hp. Cu t h e nhfl d nganh dien, chung ta vay vdn eua hp d l xdy n h a may dien thi khi do b i t budc ehiing ta phai Id thudc vao edng nghe, may mde thid't bi, n h a n edng tfl hp. O n g a n h det may, chung ta le thudc qua n h i l u vao nguyen vdt lieu tfl hp vi gia ra't re m a cha't Ifldng b mflc dp cd the cha'p n h d n dfldc nen khdng dd ddng t h a y t h e n h a p sidu tfl nguon ndy. Vdi vide Viet Nam neo ty gid dong Viet Nam vao dong ddla My, nhdp sidu chu yd'u tfl T r u n g Qud'c, ddng Viet Nam xua't hien k h a n a n g t a n g gia kep. Mpt so'doanh nghiep xua't nhdp k h a u Vidt Nam cd giao dieh vdi Trung Qud'c nhflng bang ddng ddla My, sd' khdc bdng ddng NDT hoac ca hai, nhflng sau dd lai chuyen dd'i mpt p h i n sang ddng ddla My.
Nhflng hdp dong cua hp hien nay la nhiing hdp dong da ky trfldc khi dong tien Trung Qud'c dfldc dfla vdo gid SDR nen hidn tai chfla hi anh hfl6ng n h i l u . Ne'u cd, a n h hfldng nhieu nha't la b chi phi quy ddi.
25. http://www.phapluatplus,vn/nhan-dan-te-la- dong-tien-du-tru-imftac-dong-khong-lon-den-viet- nam-dl669.html
26. http://thoibaonganhang.vn/nhan-dan-te-trong- ro-sdr-tac-dong-the-nao-42795.htm!
Nghiin cdu Kinh iff sff 451 - Thing 12/2015 2 9
Dong Nhan dan te ,
Song, ke tfl thdi diem n a y , cd t h i t r o n g q u a n hd ddi tac gifla h a i nflde ndi c h u n g vk vdi eac doanh nghiep cd giao dich trflc t i e p ndi rieng, T r u n g Qud'c se d l xua't t h a n h toan b i n g ddng t i l n cua hp n h i e u h d n . Vi vay, doanh nghiep eiing p h a i t i n h t o a n de lfla chon ty Id giao dich b i n g tflng loai ngoai te, k i l m sodt rui ro cua t y gia dong NDT va trfldc m i t la t r a n h ehi phi c h u y i n doi tfl loai tien n a y s a n g loai t i l n k h a c . Vdi dae t h u thfldng m a i gifla Viet N a m vk T r u n g Qud'c, trfldc day, dong NDT ed t h e d u n g n h i l u trong cdc giao dieh bidn gidi, nay se t a n g t i n h ehinh d a n h t r o n g cac giao dich trong nfldc.
Lien q u a n dd'n nd nfldc ngoai cua Vidt Nam, nd bang ddng SDR k h o a n g 20% - 25%^^ Vide NDT vao SDR se tac dpng dd'n ed ehd' IMF cho cae qud'c gia vay, c l u ve NDT trong eae k h o a n vay eua cae qud'e gia se t h a y dd'i, kdo theo t h i gid cua dong NDT va lai sud't vay nd b d n g SDR cua Viet Nam.
6. T h i e t h a y Itfi p h u t h u o c v a o sfl l i n g p h d c u a V i d t N a m
Tfnh dd'n t h a n g 12-2010, ed cd'u nd cdng nflde ngoai Viet N a m la J P Y (38,8%), SDR (27,1%), USD (22,2%) vk EUR (9,2%)'^ Nhfl vdy, vdi sfl kidn NDT vao SDR, n e u Viet Nam ap d u n g che' dp ty gia neo theo gid t i l n te vdi bien dp dao ddng rdng dflde d i l u chinh dinh ky (Basket, B a n d a n d Crawl Regime)^^ giup dong bd ty gid giao dich cua cac ben, phia d o a n h n g h i e p Viet N a m khdng p h a i t i n h cheo q u a ddng ddla My.
Dm vdi vide n h a p k h a u hang hda Trung Qud'c ndi chung, Vidt Nam c i n phai t a n g cudng truyen thdng v l cdc mat h a n g nguy hidm, doc hai. Ben canh dd c i n t a n g cfldng xdy dung cac hang rao ky t h u a t de nhflng hang kdm cha't Ifldng khdng vao dflde thi trfldng; hd trd eac doanh nghidp trong nflde day manh san xud't eac mat hang cha't Ifldng cao phuc vu nhu cau trong nfldc^". Viet Nam phai chuyen d i n vide nhdp k h i u tfl Trung
Qud'e sang n h a p k h i u tfl cac thi trudng khac de giam phu thudc. Vidt N a m da ky 10 Hi^p dinh tfl do thfldng mai, Hiep dinh dli tac k i n h td' xuyen Thai Binh dfldng vdi 12 nudc, day la cd hoi r a t ldn dd giam nhdp sieu t^
Trung Qudc. Va'n de thfl h a i va cung quan trpng hdn la phai d i y m a n h san xua't nguyen p h u h e u tfl trong nfldc, to chflc iai san xuat kem theo ed che chinh sdeh ho trd.
Qudc t e h o a ddng NDT ed tae dpng den sfl di c h u y i n l u d n g vd'n d i u tfl kdo theo nhflng hd luy k i n h t e ne'u Vidt Nam khong ed sfl k h a t k h e t r o n g lfla chpn. Cu the, khi dong Viet N a m yd'u di so vdi dong NDT, d a u tfl nfldc ngodi vao Vidt Nam se tSng ldn t r o n g dd cd l u d n g d i u tfl cua Trung Qud'c b nhflng n g d n h cdng nghidp ca'p thip vdi muc dich t a n d u n g n g u I n t a i nguyen va lao ddng gia re. Ddy la xu t h e d i u tu c h i n h cua T r u n g Qudc s a n g eae nflde khac.
Vay n e n canh t r a n h t r o n g nfldc rd't c6 thi se ngay cang ap lflc hdn. Vidt Nam cin c6 bidn phap r a soat eac dfl a n d i u tU FDI vao Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi, dac bi$t la cac du I n d i u t u FDI tfl Trung Qud'c vk H^ng Kdng. Thfle te cho t h a y cac doanh nghidp diu t u nudc ngodi cua Trung Qud'c tai Viet Nam ddng gdp ngan sach khdng 16n, tid'n dd tri§n khai du dn cham va cdng nghd tha'p. LUa ehpn t a n g dU trfl h a y thda thudn vay va n h a n vien trd cua Trung Qud'c b i n g dong NDT can phai dUde can n h l e ky.
27, http://www.phapluatplus.vn/nhan-dan-te-la-dong -tien-du-tru-imftac-dong-khong-lon-den-viet-nam-dl 669.html
28, VO Dinh dnh, chuyfin d^ Chinh sdch ty gid cua Trung Qufic vl goi J chinh sdch cho Vifit Nam
29, Nguyen Van Tign (2009), Gido trinh tli chfnh qufic t€. Xudt ban ldn thli 3, Nxb Thfing kft.
30, Le Ddng Doanh (2013), Pham Thi Hodng Anh va c6ng su (2013), "Cdn cdn thuong mai Viftt Nam - Trung Qudc (TQ) trong bdi canh qudc t€ hda nhdn ddn te (CNY)", Hoc viftn Ngdn hing - Hd Ndi.
30 Nghiin cdu Kinh tff sff 451 • Thing 12/2015
HINH 2: Phu thuoc nhap khau vao Trung Quoc
Ngudn: Bdo cdo cua nhdm tdc gid CIEM.
Khdng chl ddi phd vdi nhflng t h a y dd'i tfl Trung Qud'c, m a tfl thdi diem nay, b a n t h a n eac doanh nghidp Vidt N a m cang phai chu ddng hdn nfla, s a t t h i trfldng hdn nfla, theo
ddi sdt cac dien bie'n thi trfldng hang hda vk tien td de lfla chpn loai t i l n giao dich, dieu chinh h a n chd rui ro t i l n td trong mpi giao dich xua't n h a p k h i u . / .
Nghiin ciiu Kinh iff sff 451 - Thing 12/2015 31