ANH HU'dNG riy QUAN TR! LQI NHUAN D^N HIEU QUA KINH DOANH: BANG CHIFNG TU" CAC CONG TY NIEM Y^T
TREN SAN CHLPNG KHOAN VIET NAM
Pham Nguyin Dinh Tuin, Tran Thi Bich Duyen, Tran Xuan Quan, Trudng Dgi hpc Quy Nhon Ngay nhan bai: 22/10/2019
Ngay nhan bai sua: 16/11/2019 Ngay duyet dang: 22/11/2019
Tdm tdt: Muc tiiu ciia nghiin cieu nhdm ddnh gid dnh hudng ngdn hgn vd ddi hgn tir hdnh vi qudn tri Im nhuan cda ngudi qudn tri din hiiu qud kinh doanh duac do ludng qua ty sudt lai nhuan trin tdng tdi sdn cua cdc cong ty niim yit trin thi trudng chirng khodn Viet Nam. Nghien cieu xdy dipig mo hinh dH lieu bdng dpng khong cdn bdng vdi 5.014 quan sdt tie nam 2009 den ndm 2018. Phuang phdp udc luang md mem tdng quat duac sie dung di gidi quyet vdn de npi sinh trong mo hinh nghien cuu. Kit qud cuoi ciing cho thdy qudn tri lai nhudn dua tren ca sd don tich cd tde dpng tich cue den hieu qud kinh doanh ddc biet Id trong ddi hgn. Tuy nhiin, tde dpng ndy khong xudt phdt tir dnh hudng true dip tu viec diiu chinh tdng lai nhuan md gidn tiip thong qua cdc yeu to khong quan sdt duac nhu ddnh gid tie nhd ddu tu, thi trudng hoac cdc ben lien quan. Nguac lai, hieu qud kinh doanh chiu dnh hudng xdu cd trong ngdn vd ddi hgn neu ngudi qudn tri diiu chinh tdng lai nhuan thdng quo viec dua ra cdc quyet dinh kinh te nhu ndi long dieu khodn na, gidm gid bdn mpt cdch tiiu cue hodc tdng sdn xudt nhdm gidm gid thdnh dan vi sdn xudt.
Tie khda: qudn tri loi nhudn, hiiu qud kinh doanh, phuang phdp mo mem tdng qudt.
THE EFFECT OF EARNINGS JMANAGEMENT ON FIRM PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF VIETNAM
Abstract: The primary of this study is to examine the short-run and long-run effects of earnings management on firm performance of listed companies in Vietnam. We use the generalized method of moments approach with unbalanced panel data to solve endogeneity problems in the research model Data is collected for seven industries with 5.014 observations from 2009 to 2018. Consistent with the previous research, we find discretionary accruals have a positive impact on firm performance, especially in the long-run. However, this impact does not come from the direct effect of the adjustment to increase earnings but indirectly through unobservable factors such as assessments from investors, markets or related parties. Conversely, firm performance is adversely affected both in the short-run and long-run if the manager adjusts to increase earnings by making real activities manipulation such as more lenient credit terms, aggressive price discounts or overproduction.
Keywords: eamings management, firm performance, generalized method of moments.
1. Loi md dau
Quan tri Igi nhuan co thd duge hieu la vide ngudi quan tri thay ddi chi tieu Igi nhuan kd toan (tang hoac giam) so vdi mire Igi nhuan dat dugc d miic boat dpng thdng thudng ciia doanh nghiep. Dieu nay cd the duge thyc hidn thdng qua vide van dung linh hoat chinh sach ke toan, phuong phap hoac udc tinh ke toan dk dieu ehinh Igi nhuan. Ben canh dd, vide dua ra eae chinh saeh nhu ndi long ng, giam gia manh de gia tang khaeh bang, san xuat thai qua san pham nham giam gia vdn hang ban hoac cat giam qua miic cac ehi phi tiiy y cua doanh nghiep ciing co tac dgng l^m tang Igi nhuan trong ky. Nhu vay, vdi mue tieu thay ddi Igi nhuan, ket qua tir hanh vi quan tri Igi nhuan gian tiep thay ddi ehi tidu ty suat sinh ldi tren tdng tai san - vdn thudng duge sii dyng dd danh gia bieu qua kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. Trong mdi quan he nay, nhidu nghien euu trdn the gidi nhu Jones (1991);
Kothari va edng su (2005) eho thay anh hudng cimg chieu tir quan tri Igi nhuan dya tren cd sd ddn tich den bidu qua kinh doanh va ngugc lai nghien cuu eua Rovchowdhury (2006) lai eho thay anh hudng ngugc chieu. Kdt qua nay cung duge nhieu nghien euu tai Viet Nam chiing minh, nhung chii yeu la danh gia thdng qua quan tri Igi nhuan dua vao ca sd ddn tich nhu Nguvdn Ha Linh (2017): Pham Thi Bich Van (2017).
c a c nghidn ciiu kd tren da ed nhiing ddng gop nhdt dinh trong viec xem xet mdi quan he giiia quan tri Igi nhuan den hieu qua kinh doanh nhung van cdn dd lai khoang trong trong nghien cuu. Thii nhat, hau hdt cac nghien cim tren the gidi va tai Viet Nam ehu ydu su dung bidn ROA (ty sudt sinh ldi tren tdng tai san) - dai dien cho bieu qua kinh doanh trong edng ty nhu mpt bien kidm kiem soat trong md hinh ban la danh gia anh hudng ngugc lai tu qimn tri igi nhuan. Thii hai, phan Idn cae nghien cihi vd ehu de nay deu su dung rad binh hdi quy binh phuang nhd nhat (ordinary least squares - OLS) hoac md binh hdi quy tuyen tinh ap dyng eho dii lieu bang tmh (anh hudng ed dinh - fixed effects model
- FEM, anh hudng ngdu nhidn random effects model - REM). Cac phuang phap nay thudng khdng khde phuc dugc hien tugng phuang sai sai sd thay ddi (beteroseedasticity) va tdn tai van de lien quan den bien ngi smh (endogenous variable) trong md hinh nghien euu. Thii ba, xudt phat hi viee ehu ydu sir dung eae phuang phap udc lugng ke tren, ket qua do ludng ehi the hien anh hudng ngan ban.
Tir dd, nghien ciru dugc thyc bien nham danh gia anh hudng tir quan tri Igi nhuan den hieu qua kinh doanh thdng qua chi tieu ty suat sinh Idi tren tdng tai san tai cae cdng ty niem ydt fren thj trudng chumg khoan Viet Nara. Ve mat phuang phap, nghien ciiu eiing eo ddng gop khi sii dyng phuang phap udc lugng md men tdng quat (general method of moments - GMM) nhdm khde phuc nhiing ban chd eua phuang phap OLS, FEM, REM da kd tren.
Ngoai ra, vigc xay dyng md hmh dii lieu bang dpng (dynamic panel data) cho phep nghien euu cd ddng gdp quan trgng khi ddng thdi xac dinh he sd anh hudng ngan ban (short-run effects) va anh hudng dai ban (long-run effects) tir quan tri Igi nhuan trong gia dinh cac dieu kien khac khong thay ddi. Phan con lai ciia nghien cuu dugc td ehiic nhu sau. Npi dung thu hai trinh bay tdng luge cac nghien cuu cd lien quan va phat trien gia thuyet nghien ciiu. Phuang phap nghien cuu dugc trinh bay d ngi dung tbii ba. Ngi dung thii tu trinh bay ket qua nghien ciiu. Cudi cung la ketluan.
2. T6ng quan nghien cmi va xay d ^ g gia thuyet
Hidu qua kinh doanh va vide do ludng bieu qua kinh doanh la van de quan trgng trong vide danh gia boat dgng ciia mgt doanh nghiep. Theo do, hieu qua kinh doanh c6 thd duge do ludng bdi nhieu chi sd khac nhau, nhu: ROA - ty suat sinh ldi trdn tdng tai san, ROE - ty suat sinh ldi tren von chu sd hiru, ROS - ty sd sinh loi trdn doanh thu tbudn...
Tuy nhien, trong bdi canh nghien ciiu ve mdi quan he vdi quan tri Igi nhuan, Kothari va cdng su (2005) cho rang nen lya ehgn chi tidu
S6 17 thang 03 nam 2020 Taip chi Tai chinh - Quan tri kinh doanh
ROA nhdm ban che van dd ve phuang sai thay ddi.
Mdi quan h? giiia hanh vi quan tri Igi nhu^n va bi?u qua kinh doanh dugc dd cap nhieu tir eae nghien emi tren thd gidi. Theo dd, quan tri Igi nhuan lam thay doi chi tieu Igi nhuan va tir do tae dpng den hieu qua kinh doanh ciia doanh nghidp. Tuy nhien, phy thude vao each thirc quan tri Igi nhuan cua ngudi quan tri, cac tac dgng nay la khae nhau den hieu qua kinh doanh. Trong mdi quan be ddi vdi quan tri loi nhuan dua vao ca sd ddn tich, nghien euru cua Jones (1991); Kothari va edng su (2005) eho thay mdi quan h? eung chidu giira ROA va quan tri Igi nhuan. Cung vdi do, McNichols ("2000) con cho thdy quan tri Igi nhuan dya tren ca sd ddn tich edn cd tac ddng tieh cue Idn bidu qua kinh doanh eua doanh nghiep trong dai ban. Tuy nhien, cac ket qua nay lai khdng thd dugc ly giai bdi cac ly thuyet hien cd. Sy didn giai dugc chdp nhan trong giai doan nay la do ydu td sai lech tir viec do ludng quan tri Igi nhuan trong cac md hinh hien thdi. Ly giai eho tac dgng tir quan tri Igi nhuan dya vao co sd ddn tich ddn hidu qua kinh doanh chi thyc sy duge chap nhan sau cac nghien ciiu nhu Lee va eong su (2006).
Theo dd, van de ndi sinh xuat bidn trong md hinh nghidn ciiu, vl du nhu gia cd phidu - dai dien eho phan irng cua thi tmdng trudc Igi nhuan dugc bao cao trong Bao cao tai chinh se c6 anh hudng tich cue ddn co hgi eiia doanh nghiep trong tuang lai. Va do dd, trong mdi quan he nay anh hudng hi cac bidn ehua dugc kham pha bdt nam h-ong phdn du eiia md hinh se CO tac ddng ddng thdi ddn hidu qua kinh doanh va quan tri doanh nghiep. Ddi vdi anh hudng tir quan tri loi nhuan thdng qua cac quydt djnh kinh td, Rovehowdhurv (20061 cho rang day la sy danh ddi giira tidm nang phat tridn trong tuong lai cho muc dich tdi da gia tri d hien tai. Theo dd, vide ndi ldng tin dyng co thd tang lai nhuan nhung kem theo la su gia tang cae khoan ehi phi xu ly ng xdu trong tuong lai; san xudt san phdm du thira tae ddng
tidu eye ddn ehi phi tdn trir, xu ly hang tdn kho; cdt giam ehi phi nghidn eim va phat tridn giup doanh nghidp tang ddng tidn nhung cd thd anh hudng xdu ddn kha nang boat dpng kmh doanh trong tuang lai; hoac cdt giam cae ehi phi ban hang va quan ly doanh nghiep cd thd din ddn su bdt man trong nhan vien. Nhu vay, day la "eon dai hai ludi" khi ed thd giiip tang loi nhuan song lai anh hudng xdu ddn hieu qua kinh doanh tuong lai ciia edng ty.
Mae dii v§y, cac nghidn ciru trdn thd gidi ehu ydu dung d vide ban luan anh hudng hon la thyc hien kidm chiing thuc nghidm. Tai Viet Nam, nghien ciru anh hudng bi quan trj Igi nhuan den hieu qua kinh doanh vdn edn ban ehd. Theo dd, eae nghien ciru chu yeu sii dung bidn ROA nhu mgt nhan td anh hudng den hanh vi quan tri Igi nhuan, co thd xem mgt sd nghien euu cua Nguvdn Ha Linh (20171: Pham Thi Bich Van (20171. Mgt vdn dd nua xudt phat tir vide chu ydu lya ehpn phuang phap udc lugng dii lieu bang tTnh khdng giai quydt dugc van dd npi sinh xuat hidn trong md hinh nghidn cuu. Ngoai ra, eae nghien ciiu ca trdn the gidi lln tai Viet Nam chu ydu hudng den do ludng anh hudng ngan ban thay vi do ludng anh hudng dai ban tir quan tri Igi nhuan den hieu qua kinh doanh.
Tu cac van de tren, nghien eiru nay duge thyc hidn nham danh gia anh hudng ngan ban va dai ban tir quan tri Igi nhuan den hidu qua kinh doanh cua eae edng ty niem yet trdn thi trudng chiing khoan Viet Nam. Gia thuydt nghien ciiu dupe xay dyng lien quan den radi quan he giua quan tri Igi nhuan va hieu qua kinh doanh nhu sau:
Gid thuyit HI: Quan tri l^ nhudn dvea trin ca sd don tich co tac dpng citng chieu din hi$u qua kinh doanh cua cong ty niem yet tgi Viet Nam.
Gid thuyet H2: Quan trf lai nhuan thdng qua cdc quyet dinh kinh ti co tde dpng nguac chieu den hieu qud kinh doanh cua cong ty niem yet tgi Viet Nam.
S6 17 thang 03 nam 2020
3. Phircmg phap nghien cihi Hoc luong GMM gia dinh ring khong co sir tii 3.1 Mo binh nghieit cuu tucmg quan bac 2 cua phan du. Vi vay, chung D6 danh gia anh huong tit quan hi loi nhuan ** '=^" *V'= ^ e n ki6m tra tu tuong 'I'f" 5 ° " * den hieu qua kmh doanh, nghien cuu xay dung * ^ ' * P^*" sai so qua kiem dmh Arei
flO/lit = a + eROA,t-i + hEMu + p^Control^, + i:^
m
md hinh nghien ciiu nhu sau:
Trong do: i la cong ty trong mdu nghiin ciru, t Id thdi diim quan sdt dupe thu thdp tic 2009 den 2018; ROA Id ty sudt sinh ldi trin tdng tdi sdn; EM Id hdnh vi qudn tn lai nhudn duac the hiin qua bdn biin dgi diin lan luat Id DA. Ab_CFO, AbPROD vd AbJGA;
Control la tap hap cdc biin kiim soat bao gom: Size (logarit tong tdi sdn), CS (ty li no phdi trd tren tong tdi sdn), Marcap (gid tri thi trudng tren tdng tdi sdn).
Md hinh nghien cuu (I) dugc xay dyng tren ca sd eau tnic dii lieu bang dgng (dynamic panel data). Theo dd, bien tre cua bidn phy thuge ROAii_^ dugc bd sung vao ve phai cua md hinh nghien ciru ddng vai tro bien giai thieh anh hudng tir bieu qua kinh doanh trong qua khii len hien tai.
3.2 Van de npi sinb trong mo hinh ngbiea ciru
Trong md hinh du lieu bang ddng, nhu md hinh (1), van de ndi sinh xuat phat tir viee dua bien tre ROA^^-i lam bien giai thieh. Vt ROAjt la rapt ham cua Ejt nen ROAit_i cung la rapt ham ciia EH. Dieu nay dan den tuang quan giira phan du e^ den bien dpc lap ROA,[._.i va do do cac ude lugng se bi thien checb. De giai quyet van de npi sinb ddi vdi dir lieu bang ddng, phuang phap GMM dugc de xuat bdi Lars Peter Hansen tii nam 1982. Viec sir dung udc lugng GMM se cho phep khae phue ca vi pham phuong sai thay ddi va bien ndi sinh nen ket qua ude lugng liic nay se khong ebech, vimg va hieu qua nhat (Roodman. 2009), Phuang phap GMM c6 bai dang udc lugng thay thd idn nhau la ude lugng GMM sai phan (D-GMM) va GMM he thdng (S-GMM). Ddi vdi kdt qua udc lugng tir GMM can phai thyc hien kidm dinh Arellano-Bond va Hansen.
Bond duac dd xudt uong nghien ciiu eua Arellano va Bond (1991). Theo do, udc lugng GMM yeu cdu cd sy ty tuang quan bac 1 AR(]) va khdng cd sy ty tuong quan bac 2 - AR(2) cua phan du. Gid thuyit null Id khong cd su tie tuang quan bdc 1 hodc bdc 2 cua phdn du. Nhu vay, chung cdn mudn bac bo gia thuydt null d kiem dinh AR(1) nhung lai muon chdp nhan gia thuydt null d kiem dinh AR(2). Kiem dinh Sargan/Hansen nham xac dinh tinh phii hgp cua cac bidn cdng cu trong md binh GMM. Day la kidm dinh rang bude qua raiic (over-identilying restrictions) cua md binh vdi Gid thuyit null Id biin cdng cu Id ngogi sinh, nghia la khdng tuang quan vdi sai sd cua md binh.
DB udc lugng kdt qua hdi quy trong phan mdm Stata 14.2, cau lenh "xtabond2" (xem Roodman (20091) se dugc su dung. Mac dinh cua cau lenh se cho ket qua ude lugng theo S- GMM, va tiiy ehgn "nolevel" se eho ket qua udc lugng D-GMM. Vide lua ehgn ehgn udc lugng hai budc vdi tiiy ehgn "twostep" hieu qua ban so vdi udc lugng mpt budc trong vide khae phuc phuang sai thay ddi va tu tuong quan.
3.3 Anh hudng ngdn hgn vd ddi hgn trong mo hinh nghien cieu
Anh hudng ngan han tu quan tri Igi nhuan Idn hidu qua kinh doanh la be sd P thu dugc tir viec thue hien udc lugng md binh (I) theo phuang phap GMM. Ket qua nay tuang ddng va thudng dugc phan tich bdi cae nghien ciiu sir dung du lieu cheo hoac dit lieu bang tinh trong hdu hdt cac nghien ciiu trudc day vd quan tri Igi nhuan ndi chung va trong mdi quan he vdi hieu qua kinh doanh ndi rieng nhu Kothari va cone su (20051: Nguvdn J I a Linh (2017)....
S6 17 thang 03 nam 2020 Tap chi Tai chinh - Quan tri kinh doanh
Anh hudng dai h^n Uong md hinh dir lieu bang ddng dugc xae dinh hi edng thiie sau (xem Papke va Wooldridee (2005)1:
long — run effects =
1-e
(2)Trong dd, he sd p tucmg irng thu dugc tir udc lugng GMM theo tir bien ddc lap, he sd 6 tuang irng vdi bien ROAit-_i, Theo dd, anh hudng dai h^n cho thay tac ddng tir quan tri Igi nhuan trong nam hidn tai den bleu qua kinh doanh eae nam trong tuang lai.
3.4Duli^u nghien cuu
Tdng the dii lieu dugc thu thap tit danh sach cae edng ty niem yet tren san chiing khoan Viet Nam tu nam 2007 ddn nam 2018.
Nghidn ciiu loai trir cac cdng ty boat ddng trong ITnh vuc tai chinh, ngan hang va cac cdng ty khdng dii dir lieu de tinh toan gia tri cae bien trong md binh tuang irng tir 7 nam trd len. Cudi cung, du lieu dugc xay dyng thanh bp mau nghien ciru vdi 5.014 quan sat tit nam 2009 den nam 2018 vdi phan bd theo nganh idn lugt la; Cdng nghidp - 46,63%, Cdng nghe Thdng tin - 3,55%, Duge phdm va Y td - 3,95%, Dich vu Tieu dimg - 9,47%, Hang Tidu dung - 15,6%, Nguyen vat lieu - l4,18%o, Tien ich Cdng ddng - 6,62%.
3.5 Bo ludng qudn tri lai nhuan Ddi vdi hanh vi quan tri Igi nhuan dya tren
ca sd don tieh, nghien cim xera gia tri bidn ddn tich cd the didu chinh duge (DA) dai didn cho kdt qua didu chinh Igi nhuan (tang ndu mang dau duang va giam ndu raang ddu ara).
Tuong Ur cae nghidn ciiu trude day, bidn DA duge xac dinh la phan du trong md hinh Jones (19911:
TAit 1 7 ^ = a o + ai-T
„ A5„ PPE., (^^
Quan tri Igi nhuan thdng qua quydt djnh kinh te duge do ludng bdi md hinh cua Rovehowdhurv (20061. cu thd nhu sau:
- Trong trudng hgp ngudi quan tri dua ra cac chinh sach ban bang nham tang doanh thu nhu ndi ldng danh gia tin dung cho khach hang hoac giam gia hang ban trong ky, ddng tien tir boat dpng kinh doanh tucmg quan vdi doanh thu se co sy sut giam so vdi cac edng ty trong nganh. Va do dd, gia tri Ab_CFO dai didn eho ddng tien tit boat dpng kinh doanh bat thudng se ed gia tri ara va vdi gia tri eang Idn thi cang cho thay tac dgng tir chinh saeh eua ngudi quan tri den chi tieu Igi nhuan eang cao. Bien Ab_CFO theo dd dugc xae dinh la phan du tir md hinh (4) nhu sau:
Bang 1: Thong ke md ta c^c bien trong md hinh
Bi^n ROA(%)
DA (%) Ab_CFO (%)•
Ab_PROD (%) Ab_SGA (%)•
Size (ty d&ng) C S ( % ) Marcap (ty d^ng)
GialriAbCFO Quan sat
5.014 5.014 5.014 5.014 5.014 5.014 5.014 5.014 vaAbJG/
Trung blnb
7,22 -0,33 -0,37 -0,31 -0,23 1.863 51,01 1.775
^gc nhdn
S $ l£ch chuan
0,12 0,2 0,22 0,26 0,12 82 0,31 181 m(-l).
Nho nhat -62,46 -91,23 -88,09 -103,19 -59,02 2 0,66
0 2 5 "
2,13 -7,07 -8,26 -9,47 -3,06 197 33,63 58
Trung vi
5,51 -0,58 0,28 0,33 1,7 482 53,45
164 75"
10,3 6,32 7,83 8,81 4,64 1.34 9 68,2 438
nhat 81,22 97,84 91,56 317,5 28,48 96.480 96,93 215.27 2
So 17 thang 03 nam 2020
= <^o + aij 1 i t - 1 + ft
+ f.t
(4)
- Voi dirong hop nguoi quan tri cong ty dua ra chinh sach san xuat thai qua se din d6n t6ng chi phi san xuit trong ky tang len. Tuong quan voi nganh, biSn Ab^PROD dai dien cho chi phi san xuat bit thucmg tai cac cong ty nay se tang cao va do do bien dugc xac dinh la cung chi6u voi muc do hanh vi quan tri igi nhuan. Bian Ab_PROD trong nghien ciru dugc xac dinh la phan du tir mo hinh (5) nhu sau:
- Doi voi truoTig hgp ngucri quan tri dua chinh sach cjt giam chi phi tuy y, bao gom cm phi ban hang va chi phi quan ly doanh ngniep trong mo hinh nghien cuu, ket qua se din den t6ng hai chi phi nay sut giam bdt thuong so vol cdc cong ty trong nganh. Do do, bien Ab^SGA dai dien cho chi phi % y bit thudng se co gia tri am va co do 1cm hiomg img v6i mile dg chi phi bj est giam. BiSn Ab_SGA dugc xac dinh la ph4n du trong mo hinh (6) nhu sau:
SGA^ 1 ^ S j ^
+ <Ptt
(6)
Biing 2; Ket qua irdc lirong mo mem t6ng qu^t Mo hinh
L.HOA DA Ab C F O Ab PROD Ab SGA Size CS M a r c a p Constant So cong cu / nhom Kiem dinh AR(1) p-value KiSm dinh AR(2) p-value Kiem dinh Hansen p-value
(1) One-step D-GMM 0 , 2 5 9 " » 0 , 5 0 5 " * 04.09) - 0 , 5 0 6 « "
(-15,26) -0,0278»»»
(-3,317) -0,0127 (-0,504) -0,0203*«
(-2.497) 0,00121 (0.0887) -0,00984«*
(-1.972)
7 8 / 5 1 4 -8,082 0,000 -1,460 0,144 67,90 0,176
(2) Two-step D-GMM 0 , 3 0 2 " « (6,697) 0 , 4 7 3 « "
(13.39) -0,475«**
(-14,32) - 0 , 0 1 8 3 " *
(-2,674) - 0 , 0 4 0 9 "
(-2,076) - 0 , 0 2 0 3 * "
(-2,858) 0,00796 (0,636) -0,00695
(-1,360)
7 8 / 5 1 4 -7,102
0,000 -1,300 0,194 67,90 0,)76
One-step S-GMM 0,347***
(9.299) 0,463***
(13.50) -0,464***
(-14,81) -0.0305***
(-3,989) 0,00301 (0,218) -0,00203***
(-3,118) -0,00428 (-0,641) 0,0105***
(3,403)
9 5 / 5 1 4 -8,458 0,000 -1,497 0,134 87,04 0143
(4) Two-step
S-GMM 0 3 8 0 . . . (10,31) 0,414***
(11.11) -0,419***
(-12,29) -0,0203***
(-2.693) -0,0128 (-0,959) -0,00163***
(-2,646) -0,00501 (-0,910) 0,0124***
(3,943) 0,0717***
(4,303) 9 5 / 5 1 4
-7,668 0,000 -1,230 0,219 87,04 0.143
(5) Fsed-effect
model 0 , 1 7 3 " *
(7,485) 0,518***
(14,83) - 0 , 5 1 8 * "
(-16,03) -0,0332***
(-4,124) -0,0108 (-0,416) -0,00209
(-0,897) -0,0285***
(-2,736) -0,00808*
(-1,882) 0,165***
(2,678) (6) Pooied-
O L S 0,341***
(13,15) 0,457***
(15.16) -0,457***
(-16,93) -0,0317***
(-3,935) 0,00631 (0,493) -0,00165***
(-2,720) -0,0112**
(-2,348) 0,00877***
(4,509) 0,118***
(7,482)
Gid Iri t/z-static trmh bdy trong ddu ngodc; gid tri p trinh bdy trong litem 3inh AR(1). AR(2) vd kiim dinh Hansen: ddu *, **, *** tirtmg img Idn luat cho p<0.1. p<0,05 vd p<0,01
PROD^ 1 „ 5,t Gid tri cac biin trong mo hinh luge thu thap tit Bao cdo tdi chinh cua ctic cong ty trong mau vai cong ty i va nam t, bao gom:
TAi,: chenh lech giira loi nhuan ki todn vd
A,t- (S)
+P2 ^it-
- + ft
Ait- - + feSo 17 thing 03 nam 2020 Tap chi Tai chmh - Quan tri kinh doanh
luu chuyin tiin thudn tir kit qud hogt dpng kinh doanh; CFOit: liru chuyen tiin thudn tie kit qud hogt dpng kinh doanh; PRODi^: gid von hdng bdn cpng vdi chinh lich gid tri hdng ton kho so vdi ndm trudc; SGAj^: tdng chi phi bdn hdng vd chi phi qudn ly doanh nghiep; Aij._i la tdng tdi sdn; Sit: doanh thu thudn; AS^ Id chenh lech doanh thu thudn so vdi ndm trudc; PPEtt' nguyen gid tdi sdn co dinh hieu hinh.
4. Kit qua nghien ciru 4.1 Thong ki mo td
Bang 1 trinh bay thdng kd md ta cac bien trong rad binh (1), tuang ty nghien ciiu cua Roycfaovydhurv (2006) gia tri bien A b C F O va Ab_SGA dugc nhan eho (-1) do day la bai bien cd dau ngugc chieu vdi hanh vi quan tri Igi nhuan thdng qua quyet dinh kinh td. Theo ket qua thdng kd thi eae cdng ty trong mau nghien ciiu cd pham vi bidn ddng cua ROA kha Idn vdi gia tri Idn nhat va nhd nhat lan lugt dat 81,22% va -62,46% tdng tai san.
Tuang ty nhu vay thi gia tri Idn nhat cua DA, Ab_CFO va A b P R O D lan lugt cung cd gia tri rat cao nhu 97,84%, 91,56% va 317,5%. tdng tai san. Nguge lai, ngudi quan tri ed xu hudng han che trong lya ehgn vi?e eat giam ehi phi tiiy y qua miie khi gia tri tdi da ehi dat 28,48%
tdng tai san.
4.2 Ket qua h^i quy
4.2.1 Kdt qua kiem dinh va udc lurgng GMM
cac kdt qua udc lugng GMM dugc trinh bay d Bang 2. Trong dd, bien ndi sinb dugc xac dinh la bidn trd phu thuge ROA, bidn Marcap (trong md hinh D-GMM) bidn Size (trong mo hinh S-GMM), cac bidn eon lai dugc xac dinh la ngoai sinb bao gdm bidn gia nam nghien ciiu. Doi vdi kidm dinh hr tuang quan, ket qua cho thay eo su ty tuang quan bae 1 (vdi p-value < 0,05) nhung khdng cd tu hrgng quan bac 2 (vdi p-value > 0,05) cho tat ca kdt qua ude lugng. Kidm dinh Hansen eho
thay tat ca udc lugng ddu dap ling ydu cdu toan bg bien cdng cu dugc lya ehgn trong md hinh la phu hop vdi gia tri p-value > 0,1.
De lya ehpn giiia ude lugng D-GMM va S- GMM, Bond (2002^ cho riing he sd udc lugng cua bien tre phu thudc cm nam trong khoang gia tri he sd ude lugng tac dgng cd dinh (within-groups) va udc lugng Pooled-OLS tai cot (6). Nhu vay, dya vao Bang 2 khoang gidi ban duge xae djnh tir 0,173 tai ept (5) ddn 0,341, va do do udc lugng D-GMM dugc xac dinh phu hgp ban so vdi S-GMM. Cudi ciing, ket qua ude lugng D-GMM hai budc tai cot (2) duge su dyng dd phan tich anh hudng ngin ban va dai ban tir hanh vi quan tri lai nhuan ddn bieu qua kinh doanh.
4.2.2 Anh hudng ngdn hgn tie qudn tri loi nhudn din hieu qud kinh doanh
Anh hudng ngan han tir quan tri Igi nhuan dua tren ca sd ddn tich den hieu qua kinh doanh da dugc kiem ehiing trong nhieu nghien cim trudc day nhu Kothari va cdng su (2005):
Nguvdn Ha Linh (2017). Trong bdi canh nghien ciiu nay, ket qua ude lupng tai cdt (2) cho thay mdi quan he eung chieu giira hai bien ROA va DA theo he sd la 0,473 vdi mgi muc y nghia. Theo do, khi ngudi quan tri dieu chinh tang Igi nhuan eang manh rad se cang thuc day ty su§t Igi nhuan tren tai san tang.
Kdt qua cudi ciing la cho thay hieu qua kinh doanh eua doanh nghiep dang cd chieu hudng tdt len giiip doanh nghiep dl dang thu but thdm vdn, ca hdi kinh doanh. Mac du phuang phap quan tri Igi nhuan nay ve ca ban khdng tao ra Ipi nhuan thuc te, song vi?c sir dung trong mdt thdi didra nhat dinh eo the giiip doanh nghiep tao ra Igi ich gian tiep. Vdi ket qua nay, tuang ty d cac ept (1), (3) va (4) con lai, nghidn cuu chip nhan gia thuyet HI cho thay quan trj Igi nhuan dya tren ca sd ddn tich CO tac dgng cung chieu den hieu qua kinh doanh cua cong ty niera ydt tai Viet Nam.
Trong moi quan he vdi A b C F O , Ab^PROD va Ab_SGA, kdt qua nghien eiru eho thay tae
ddng ngugc ehieu len ROA va phii hgp vdi nghien eiiu trude day nhu cua Rovchowdhury (2006). Cu the anh hudng tir cac bidn den ddn hieu qua kinh doanh nhu sau;
Bidn Ab CFO dai didn cho vide ngudi quan tri dua ra cac quyet dinh kinh td nhu ndi ldng dieu khoan ng nhim kich thieh khach hang tang mua sam va tir dd tang doanh thu.
Thuc chat A b C F O dugc dimg dd do ludng sy bat thudng ve ddng tidn thu^n tir boat dgng kinh doanh ciia cdng ty. Theo dd, khi ngudi quan tri ap dung phuong phap nay thi ehi cd doanh thu tang cdn dong tifin thuan hSu nhu khdng thay doi. Ben canh do, vide ndi Idng ng hoac giara gia manh ddng thai keo theo viec phat sinh chi phi xir ly ng trong dai han hoac suy giam ddng tidn tir boat dgng kinh doanh trong tuong lai. Ket qua nghien cuu ehiing rainh anh hudng ngugc chieu (be sd 0,475 vdi rapi muc y nghia) cho thay ngudi quan tri ap dung chinh sach kinh te ve ban hang cang
giam. Vdi ciing mdt lugng hang da ban du^
trong nam thi gia vdn hang ban dugc ghi nhjn se giam - trong dieu kien doanh thu khong - thi Igi nhuan se tang len. Khi ngudi quan tri ap dung chinh saeh nay gia hi hang ton kho euoi ky se tang cao. Va dii mang lai Igi nhuan trong ngan ban, chi phi xu ly hang tdn kho trong cae ky sau se mang tdi cac ydu td bat Igi eho doanh nghiep. Ben canh dd, viec tang lugng hang san xuSt ciing la mot bien phap dugc thuc hien khi ngudi quan tri thuc day doanh thu qua viec ban hang. Lap luan tren duge chung rainh bdi he so am trong md hinh tai ket qua d cdt (2) la 0,0183 vdi mgi raiie y nghia va xu hudng nay tuang ddng cac ket qua khac taiept(l), (3)va(4).
Trong mdi quan he vdi Ab_SGA, kdt qua nghidn cim bi cdt (2) cung eho thay anh hudng ngugc chidu cimg he so 0,0409 dat miie y nghia thdng ke 5%,. Theo dd, A b S G A d^i dien cho viee ngudi quan tri cit giam qua miic Bang 3 : Anh hudng dai han tir quan tri loi nhuSn d i n hidu quan kinh doanh MS hinh
Bi^n DA Ab_CFO Ab_PROD Ab_SGA
(1) One-step D-GMM 0,682***
(14.72) -0,683***
(-15,06) -0,0375***
(-3.11) -0,0171 (-0,51)
(2) Two-step D-GMM 0 , 6 7 7 9 « "
(15,45) -0,6807***
(-15,84) -0,0263***
(-2,57) -0,0587**
(-2,06)
(3) One-step S-GMM 0,7082***
(21,25) -0,71002***
(-23,83) -0,0467***
(-3.91) -0,0467
(0,22)
(4) Two-step
S-GMM 0,6675***
(17,53) -0,6747***
(-19.88) -0,0328***
(-171) -0,0206
(-0,96) Gia tri z-statie trinh bay trong dau ngoae; dau
p<0,l,p<0,05vap<0,01
manh me, hieu qua kinh doanh trong ngan han cua doanh nghidp cd xu hudng giam. Mae du khdng su dung song ket qua udc lugng tai cac ept (1), (3) va (4) eung khdng eho thay sy khac biet vdi ket qua chinh dugc su dung de ban luan tai cdt (2).
Bien A b P R O D dai dien cho vide ngudi quan tri tang lugng bang san xuat trong ky. Va vi tdng dinh phi khdng ddi nen doanh nghiep cang san xuat, gia thanh dan vj san pham cang
• tuong ling lan lupt cho chi phi ban hang va quan ly doanh nghidp, dieu nay giup tang Igi nhuan trong ky. Tuy nhien, trai vdi xu hudng tiet kiem chi phi, c5t giam ehi phi qua da cd the anh hudng xau den kha nang phat tridn trong mang lai cua doanh nghiep. Ben canh do, kdt qua udc lugng trinh bay tai cdt (1), (3) va (4) lai eho thay khdng co mdi quan be giiia Ab_SGA den bieu qua kinh doanh. Didu nay trudc bet dugc dy bao qua bang thdng ke md ta khi gia Ui Ion nhdt cua So 17 thang 03 nam 2020 Tap chi Tai chinh - Quan tri kinh doanh
Ab_SGA dat 28,48%, hii nguge l?i vdi gia Ui nhd nhat -59,02%o tdng tai san. Ngudi quan tri ed xu hudng khdng ap dung chinh sach cSt giam chi phi mdt each m^nh me ndu so sanh vdi kdt qua thdng ke md ta cua hai bidn A b C F O va Ab_PROD. Khac vdi hai chinh sach de quan tri Igi nhuan da phan tich d trdn, vide cat giam chi phi gan nhu la cd gidi ban. Do do, ed le ngudi quan tri da khdng uu tien lua ehpn chinh sach cat giam chi phi va do dd nd khdng CO nhieu tae ddng ddn bidu qua kinh doanh cua doanh nghidp.
Vdi cac kdt qua da ban lu§n d tren, nghien Ciiu chap nhan gia thuyet H2 eho thay anh hudng nguge chieu tir quan tri loi nhuan thdng qua cac quyet dinh kinh td den hieu qua kinh doanh ciia edng ty. Ngoai ra, kdt qua udc lugng d Bang 2 cdn cho thay eae he sd giiia hai bien DA va A b C F O khdng cd sy khae biet Idn, ISn lugt la 0,473 va 0,475. Didu nay cho thay ea hai bien dudng nhu eo diem chung khi phan anh eiing mgt each thiic quan tri Igi nhuan cua ngudi quan tri. Bidn DA la sy tdng hgp eho viec ngudi quan tri lua ehgn chinh sach ke toan ed tae dpng den doanh thu (thdi diem ghi nhiin doanh thu,...) va chinh sach kd toan cd tac ddng den ehi phi (phuang phap khau hao, thdi gian khau hao,...). Sy giao thoa vdi Ab_CFO the hien viec ngudi quan tri eo xu hudng lya ehpn chinh sach tang doanh thu han la tac dpng thay ddi chi phi.
4.2.3 Anh hudng ddi hgn tie qudn tri loi nhuan din hieu qud kinh doanh
Anh hudng dai ban tir quan tri Igi nhuan den hidu qua kinh doanh dugc tinh toan theo cdng thiie (2) va trinh bay tai Bang 3. Tuang tu nhu tren, kdt qua d cgt (2) se dugc sii dyng chinh dd ban luan kdt qua nghien ciiu.
Ve tdng quat, kdt qua tinh toan anh hudng ngan ban va dai han eung co ehung miie y nghia thdng ke. Nhu vay, chi nhirng bidn nao c6 anh hudng ddn ROA trong ngin ban thi mdi ed anh hudng dai ban. Cu thd ban, ddi vdi DA kdt qua cho thiy anh hudng dai ban cd he
sd 0,6779 vdi ragl muc y nghia, he sd nay eao hon so vdi anh hudng ngin ban 0,473 d Bang 2. Tuang tu nhu vay, kdt qua do ludng anh hudng dai ban tir ba bidn Ab_CFO (he sd 0,6807 vdi miie y nghia 1%), Ab_PROD (be sd 0,0263 vdi miie y nghTa 15) va Ab_SGA (he sd 0,0587 vdi miic y nghia 5%) ddu lin lugt cao han so vdi kdt qua tai Bang 2 lin lugt la 0,475; 0,0183 va 0,0409. Nhu vay, hanh vi quan tri Igi nhuan khdng chi cd anh hudng ngan ban ddn hidu qua kinh doanh ciia eae edng ty niera yet, ma eon cd anh hudng trong dai ban vdi miic do manh me han. Dieu nay dugc ly giai bdi bai ly do (i) cac edng ty cd hieu qua kinh doanh trong nam tdt thudng ed uu thd ban trong vide tim kidm cac ca hdi lara an tdt ban bao gdm ca vide thu hut vdn hoac vay ng vdi dieu khoan uu dai va ngugc lai; (ii) ngudi quan tri thyc hidn hanh vi quan tri Igi nhuan khdng chi la quyet dinh raang tinh nhat thdi trong nam ma la da dugc xay dyng vdi ke hoach cy thd hudng den mue tieu, do dd hanh vi nay raang tinh lien tue va qua nhieu ky chii khdng bo hep trong mpt thdi diem.
Ket luan
Nghien cuu dugc thye hien nham danh gia cac anh hudng ngan han va dai ban tu hanh vi quan tri Igi nhuan den hieu qua kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep. Dua trdn cac ly thuyet nham giai thieh viec lua ehpn quan tri Igi nhuan cua ngudi quan tri va tir kdt qua nghien ciru trudc day, nghien ciiu da xay dyng va chiing rainh cae tac dpng theo bai hudng. Thii nhat, quan tri Igi nhuan dya vao co sd ddn tieh cd anb hudng cung chidu ddn hieu qua kinh doanh.
Vd ban chat, day la phuong thiic dich chuyen Igi nhuan giiia cac ky va anh hudng cua nd len bieu qua kinh doanh mang tinh gian tiep. Thii hai, quan tri Igi nhuan thdng qua cac quydt dinh kinh td cd anh hudng nguge ehidu ddn hidu qua kinh doanh. Mac du, ngudi quan tri thyc hidn quan tri Igi nhuan thdng qua cac thay ddi trong chinh sach ban hang, san xuat hoac cat giara chi phi cudi ciing se lam tang
Igi nhuan. Song, vide gia tang tdng tai san bdi nghien cuu cung cip bing chiing quan trgng cac khoan phai thu hoac gia fri bang ton kho se ddi vdi anh hudng tir quan tri Igi nhuan dya din ddn chi tieu ROA suy giara. Ciing vdi dd, vao ca sd ddn tich va thdng qua cac quyet day eiing dugc xem la hanh vi quan tri Igi dinh kinh td ddn hieu qua kinh doanh ca trong nhuan dd lai hau qua xiu trong tuang lai, bao ngin va dai ban. Ddng thdi md ra cac huang gdm vide gia tang cae chi phi xu ly ng, xii ly nghien eiiu trong tuang lai gin vdi danh gia bang tdn dgng hoae chi phi phat sinh lien quan anh hudng tir hanh vi quan tri Igi nhuan den den viec danh mat ca hpi phat tridn,... Kdt qua cac ydu td khac trong doanh nghiep.
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S6 17 thang 03 nam 2020 30 Tap chi Tai chinh - Quan trj kinh doanh
