;MH riA M I C DO TON THUONG TAI NGUYEN, MOI TRUONG Tcil VEN BIEN VIET NAM PHUC VU SU DUNG BEN VUNG
TAI NGI YEN, BAO \ E MOI TRUONG VA T H I C H UNG VOIBII \ DOI KHI HAU, LAY vi DU CUA SONG HONG
M.iTrnngNhtnln'", Ngu>cn Thj Uong llu^'"*, Luu Viet Dung*"', Tran Dang Quy - l i o a n g VSn Tuan'-', Bii'i Thuy Trang*"', Pham Minh Quyen'"', Tran Thj Lua'"',
Nf-uycn H» QuC-'"', Lc Thj Nga""', Nguyen Thuy Linh'"', Vu Thi Thu Thiiy''', Pham Thi Tuy^t'"', Nguyen Iloa liinh'^'
"'Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha NOI. 1-1-1 Xuan Thu\. Cau Giay. I la Noi '^'Trung tam nghien cuu Bifin va Dao. 144 Xuan fhuy, Ciiu Giay, HaNgi
*^' Truong Dai hoc Khoa hoc Tu nhicn. 334 Nguyfin Trai, Thanh Xuitn, Ha Noi ''^tuc Quan ly ch5t thai va Cai thicn moi iruong, So 11 lo 13 A Trung 1 loa. Cau Giay, I la Noi
Email: nhuaniiil'a\'nu.edu.vn Tom tit:
Cuu Sdng Hdng Id viing cd du dgng sinh lie>c cuo nhdl mien Bdc. thudc khu die trie sinh quyen the gidi. cd vai Ird quan irong bdo vc ldi nguyen, mdi irudng va phdl tnen kmh le - xu hdi, ddng tbdi cung Id ncri chiu dp luc lit cdc hoat ddng nhdn sinh vd anh hudng lieu cue do biin ddi khi imu Sic dung cdc phdn mem ArcGis 9 3 vu Expert Choice 11 de su ly sd lii'u , bdi bdo trinh bay ket cpid diinh gid ticb hc/p vd thdnh ldp bun do mice dd Idn thuang ldi nguyen. mdi irudng ciea Song Hong Dua trim ca ser ddnh gid lich hcrp mirc do ton thuong ldi nguyen, mdl truimg. mdt sd gidi phiip nhe'im su dung ben vitng tdi nguyen.
bdo ve mdi truong. phdng tremh giam nhe thien lai vd thich iing viri hiiin ddi khi hdu vimg nghien cicu duac de xudt epiy hogch sir dung bin vung tin nguyen. mdi iruirng. giai phcip cpiun ly vu hao ve idl nguyen, mdi iruimg, gtai phiip gium thieu ihiet bai tai bien do bien ddi khi hdu vd gidi phc'ip cdnh bdo.
gido due ndng cao nhcm thiec cgng ddng. Kit cpid nghien cieu cd y nghia cpian Irong trong \dy elung chinh sdch. chien luoc bao ve tui nguyen, mot Iruirng.
giam ihii'u thiel hgi do leu bien vd thich ung vdt biiin ddi khi hdu din ven hien.
Hiji nghi Khim lit t i ii Cc'ing nglii' hiin loiin qiiik hi,
ASSl-SSMENT 01- VULNIiRABIlJTY Of NA I l.'RAL RESOURCES AND l-WIRONMLN r 01- VII-. i NAM COASTAL 2 0 N L SERVING THE SUSTAINABLE
I ;SE OF NATURAL RESOURCES. E N V I R 0 N M I - : N T A L PROTECTION, AM ADAPT/UION "10 CLIMATE CHANGE. FOR INSTANCE. OF Till-: RED RIVI R Mai Tronji Nhuan'", Nguyen Thi Ilong Hue''', Luu Viet Dung*'', Tran Dang Or ''',
Hoang Van T u a n ' " , Bui Thuy Trang'"', Pham Minh Quyen'"', Tran Thi Lua' N-^ux en Ho Que'"', Le Thi Nga'"', Nguyen Thuy Linh'"', Vu Thi Thu 1 hu>'
Pham Thi Tujet'-', Ngujen Iloa Uinh'^'
The Red River Moiilh 's Bio.sphere Reserve heis the highest couslul biodiversity in the Northern I'ielnam us \ell us p I uys un iinpuiluni role u, nuturul resources, .socio - economic development, und protecting environmeni In receni years, sludy aiea has increased vulnerability by negutive hiimein aclivilies (eg. agriculture, aquaculture. Iransporlutton und indu.stry) und climate change Using .ArcGIS 9 3 and Expert Choice 11 software for eleilu processing, this article presents lbe results of vulnerahilily us.\essmenl mup of environment und nuturul resources Bused on vulnerubilily assessment of environment and naiiirul resources, several solutions aimed ut sustainable use of natural resources, environmenlul piotection. eUsuster prevenlion und mitigution. and udaplalion lo climuie change have been proposed such us planning for sustalnuhle u.se of environment and naturul resources, environmental protection, reusing awureness of community The research i-esulls could he used us .scientific hastes for marking policies and sirategies to protect natural resources and envircmmeni. miligaling hazards, adapting to climate chunge.
.MO DAU
SLI dung ben \'ung (SDBV) tai nguyen la giai phap rat quan trpng dc bao \ c moi ln' >ng (IJVMI) \ a thich ung \6i bifin d6i khi hau (BDKH) [3,7.9,19]. Dicu nay dac biel -o y ngliTa lon doi \ a i \'iel Nam, la mot Irong nam nude bi ton Ihuong nghiem trong nh.. do BDKH [5], dang day nhanh cong nghiep hoa. hien dai boa tren co so su dung tai ngi' Cii.
lao dong \'a cae nguon iuc khac. Danh gia mue do ton Ihuong (MDF 1 ) la mot hop : '..iii quan trong irong quy irinh xay dung mo hinh su dung ben vung lai nguyen [7], ihicl ug
\'t'n BDKH 11."^.16. 17. 18|. quan 1} ihicn Uii va quan l\ tong hgp doi ven bifin |251.. an Inn cae danh gia MD'I"! duoe licp can ihco ba hap phan chinh' cac moi de dna. U'IL 'iii hay duoc nhan dinh la cac yfiu to gay ton Ihuong; cac doi tuong bi ton ihuong hay sir i ...ly cam ciia cac doi lirgng truoc iiioi de dga. lac dgng \a kha nang irng pho, phuc boi. cF ng chju. ihich ung ciia he thong tu nhien - \a hoi (duge ggi chung la kha niing I'mg ; >!•
Trong do, kha nang ung pho eua he thong la nhan to quan trgng \'a duoc nhan dinb U lyl lich cue irong diinh gia MDTF [26J. Mol so licp can cim nhan dinh kha nang irng ph la
^^^^^^^BidlyJtS^:±2tjM^ — —
a-- r cia t6n thuang. dicn hinh hi ciic nghien cuu ciia SOi'AC nhan dinh ton tiiuong
" ' ' 2 ° ' JU 4„g pho la hai mat cua mpt dSng liin 129]. Voi each liCp can da nganh. da
" h « r c cac nghien ciru ton thirong da xa dang CO nhflng dong gop diing kc trong t]u>- 1, hs'iam thiC-u thiet hai tai biin, phiit IriC-n kinh \i - xi! hoi (KT - Xll), lam co so cho A \i aii moi trirong chiC-n lirgc va quy hoach KT - Xll. hinh thanh ciic chuong trinh uu -vc bao vi. bao t6n tai neu>cn. moi Iruong. lliich irng voi UDKIl cung nhu thicl lap
"hung cho quan 1> long hop dm bo nep can gjn vol muc ticu phiil trien ben % tmg.
Trai dai tren .1 200 km bo bifin. doi vcn bicn Vict Nam diic Hung boi nguon tai ngU)C-n thicn nhien da dang va phong phii. diSn hinh k'l liii nguyen dat ngiip nude (DNN cua song, voi cae he sinh thai lieu bicu nhu rung ngap mSn. san ho, CO bicn. diim phii. bai trieu); tai nguyen vi the (vung unh \en bcr. mui nho. cira song); tai nguyi-n khoang san (diiu khi.
than, sa khoanc. Mil heu \.i\ dung.. .). lii liem nang lan thiic da\ su phiit trii-n K 1" - XI I.
Tuy nhien, doi vcn bii-n lii noi bj ltm thirang cao tir cac tai bien mii dicn hinh la cite lai bien lien quan dc-n BDKH loan cau nhu biio, lu lul, nhiem man, dang cao muc nuac bicn.
K£l qua danh giii viing co ngu> ca bi ngiip Iheo kich ban diing cao muc nuac biiin Im clio IhSy: CO khoang 39% dicn lich viing dflng biing song Ciru Long co nguy CCT bi ngiip. anh hudng true lii-p khoiing .i5% so diin vii khoiing 1 1% dicn tich viing dimg biing Song liong CO nguy ca bi ngap, iinh hirong true licp khoiing 10% so diin [ 1 | . Trong do, tiii nguvii'n DNN dugc nhan djnh lit doi tugng bi ton thuang cao do tlic dgng cua BDKl I, cu the; thay doi dien tich dam lily va ciic kenh lach. anh hirang tcri su cu tru ciia dong thuc vat. nhay cam voi nuac diing trong biio.... do diing cao nurc nuoc bicn; thay diii noi o, niing suiil ciic viing DNN hay tiing ciic loai ngoai lai do thay doi nhiet do/titng di) man,, .[15]. lion niia.
day cung la khu vuc chju nhieu sire ep cua ciic boat dgng nhiin sinh nhu gia tang diin so, toe do do thj boa vii cong ngbicp hoa nhanh, phiit trien thdy sim 6 at giiy nhicu tae dgng tieu cue cho tai nguyi;n. moi trucmg. lam suy giant chat lugng tiii nguyen. moi trudng. suy giam da dang sinh hgc. Chinh vi vay. SDBV tiu nguyen (diic bicl la tiii nguyen DNN) g doi vcn bicn eo y nghTa song con doi vai bao tan da dang sinh hoc. B\'M T vit thich ling vdi BDKH.
Thupc vcn bien dong bang Bae Bg, cita Song Ilong la bg phitn quan trgng ciia khu du trii sinh quyen the gigi vii co khu Ramsar Xuiin Thtiy - dau ticn ciia khu v uc Dong Nam A, CO vai ti-6 quan trpng bao l6n, du tru tai nguyen vii BVMT, phat triiin KT - XH khu vuc (hinh 1), Vimg LNN Xuiin Thiiy duoc biit den voi tinh da dang sinh hgc cao nhiit, niing sual sinh hpc lim nhiit mic-n BJc Vict Nam vii cung lii he sinh Ihiii nhiiy cam nhit. Diiy con la noi cu tni cua nhicu loai dgng v at hoang da vii cac loai chim quy hic-ni (s6 lugng cii thii eac loai chim co IhC- dat lai 30 - 40 ngan con) |8-10J. Tai nguyen, miii truong cfla Song Hong dang dugc khai thac va su dung viin nhiC-u muc dich khac nhau. diC-n hinh la khai thac va nuiii trong ihfly san. nong nghiep, du lich. Tuy nhicn. cac boat dgng khai thiic vtl su dung tai nguyen. mdl truong chira hgp ly nhu su dung cac cong cu khai thiic thiiy san mang tinh huv diet (litoi mdt nhd, kich dien. khai Ihiie con giong nhd,...); chiu ihai lfl ciic
HOI nghi Khoa hoc vii Cong nghe hien loeiii qui'ic lun iliu
boat dgng nong nghiep, tieu thu cong nghiep, nuoi trong thiiy san [9] Hoat dgng kh;ii ihac va su dung tai nguyen nuoc cua cae dap thiiy dicn 6 thugng luu cac song thugc he ih6nj Song Hong da va dang gay nhieu tac dgng ticu cue cho tai nguyen, moi Irudng khn vtrc nhu lam thay doi dong chay va can can tram tich ven bo, lam mat ngi cu trii, bai gi6nL> ba dc va suy giam nguon loi thiiy san ciia mgt so loai ca quy hiem a Song Hong [U,I3], Them vao do, viing chiu anh huong ciia cac tai bien lien quan den BDKH nhu xoi lo bo bien, bo song (Giao Hung, Giao An, Hong Tien), boi tu bien dgng luong lach (phiii \ain cira Ba Lat, con Lu, con Ngan, con Mo), bao va dang cao muc nuoc bien (eac VUI.L, dSt thap ven bien, cae viing DNN) va 6 nhiem moi trudng (6 nhiem dau, nguy eo 6 nhiem moi truong boi kim loai,...) [8,9,21]. Cac yen to trfin la nhan to gay ton thuang tai nguyfin moi truong, de dga su phat trien ben vimg khu vuc. Vi the, bai bao trinh bay kel qua iv ucn eiru MDTT lai nguyen, moi truong lan dau ticn cho vimg cua Song Hong voi each it^i ean tong hgp, hen nganh, dac biet la danh gia kha nang ehong chiu, phue hoi eiia cae ht .sinh thai tu nhien (rirng ngap man. bai trieu,...) do tae dong BDKH nham SDBV lai ngi •,cn, BVMT va thich iing vdi BDKH.
Qsiineio Hoing Sj
I-
Hinh 1: Vi tri khu vuc nghien ctru - cua Sdng Hdng I. PHUOTSG PHAP NGHIEN CIJU L Tiep can vc su- dung ben virng tai nguyen
Co nhicu each ticp ean vc SDBV tai nguyen ven bien [3,7,33], trong d6 SDB\ iai nguyen dua tren co sd danh gia MDTT giai quyet hai hoa ba van de cimg Iiic ia khai liiac sir dung tai nguyen ket hgp BVMT dap img nhu cau ciia the he hien tai nhung van bai. in tai nguyen, moi trudng cho the he mai sau va thich ung duo'c vdi BDKH
Ket qua danh gia va du bao MD TT la ca so khoa hoc cho vice thuc hicn \'a xa> dung auv hoaeh SDBV tai nguyen. BVMT va phdng iranb giam nhe lai bifin \ a ihich irng \di BDKH cGng nhu de xual giai phap quan ly va canh bao, giao due luyen truyfin nang cao nhan thirc va nang lire cgng dong, thue hicn da> du ba ngi dung ciia SDBV lai ngujen (hinh 2). Da\ ia each licp can dugc phat tnen va md rgng lir each liep can SDB\' lai nguyen dia chat dua vao danh gia MDTT [3.7].
\iti liicaj llln lliiiiinji . CJC lai bicn l i m i|uaii dcii
DDKII xoiUybab.in. bill). ID Jul. JJiig cuii iinrc mnvc bicn Oiiliiemmoiiiu-Kin;
. Cac iiiu 16 ciiiniiibiM lill biOii
•;lii liin Ihuimg a L-jc Ihjnli Lui iib.iii .sinh Jill Jl'vi\UlbiOll
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Mill (16 Kbii iMiig I'my jibo ciiii Ji)i \\icmg lun ibmniii he ibimj! I^i iibiCn - \a biii
'JL.
M D r r tRJ nauven, moi lru(')[it> doi vcn biC'ii
fi
Ou> iuwch s n u v Ouan K i a ban ii
JL
C. anh bail, ^liio due n Jn^i c i o nhan Ihuc cong diing \C B V \ I I Ihich iJngMJi IHJKIl
S D B V tat nguyen, BVtMT. Ihich ung HUKJ1
Hinh 2- Cdch liip can SDB V tdi nguyen, B VMT. thich icng vdi BDKH diri ven biin I 'let Nam trim ca sd ddnh gid MDTT ldi ngiiyi^n, mdi tru(}ng
2. Phirong phap danh gia miic do ton thu-ong lai nguyen, moi trudng
Phuang phap danh gia MDTT tai ngu)'fin, moi trudng ap dung trong nghifin cuu na>
duge ke thii'a tii' cac phuong phap va chi ticu danh gia MDTT ddi ven bifin do eae tai bifin lien quan den BDKM nhu dang cao mue nude bien eiia Cue Dia chdt My [32], Uy ban Lien ehinh phu vi: BDKH [18] hay chi s6 tdn thuong ddi vcn bifin ciia Pethick, J.B and Crooks, S [28]; ton thuong mdi trudng (EVI) ciia SOPAC [29], lon thuong ciia he thong lu nhien - xa hdi cua NOAA [27] va ciia Cutler [14]; khung danh gia tdn thuong lai nguyfin tJNN do BDKH [17]; tdn thuong ciia tai nguyen. mdi Irudng ddi veu bicn eiia Mai Trgng Nhuan eiing cac cdng su bo sung, dicu chinh eho phii hop vdi difiu kifin Vicl Nam [2,3.6,7.23.241 H .K
Ih}i nghi Khou hoc vii Cong nghe hien loim t/"'
MD'fT tai ngu>fin. nicii trudng ddi ven bifin da dugc xa^ dung ibco ham sd: Vx.s, - (aRx,y. bPx,\|. cC\,y,). trong dd' Vx,), la MDTT tai nguyen. mdi irudng. {Rxo'i) la niiic d nguy'hicm do eae \Cm Id gay ldn thuong (duge danh gia bang su lieh bgp eac tai bicn ba lut xdi Id \a bdi lu vcn bd. dang eao muc nude bien. d nhiem mdi Irudng...: (P.x,>j) l.i nii dddcM luong bi tdn ihuong. \ a (Cx,yj) la kha nang irng phd ciia be ihdng lu nhien - xn ho (x,;'j) la loa dd dia K' va a, b. c la cae gia tri Irgng sd vc mirc do quan trgng. Cac chi nfi.
danh gia n\n ihuong dugc xac djiili trgng sd ihco phuong phap ma tran so sanh L.^ CU Saal\ Tliomal |30.311 \ a phiin mfim Hxpcrt Choice 11.
Qii\ irinh danh gia MD'f f Lii ngu)fin. mdi tiudng dugc xay dung va xii' ly co sd du lifii bang phan mfim ArcGis 9,3 \a co' sir dung cac phep phan tich khdng gian nham linh loiii va thanh lap duge tirng ban eib thanh phan. mirc dd_ nguy hifim do lai bifin. mai dd do lugng hi ldn ihuang \ a kha nang irng phd theo cacl^iifip can nfiu trfin
IL 0 \ ^ H ( ; i \ MUC DO TON THUONG T A I NGI \ KN, MOI T R U O V ; C L A SONG HONG 1. Diinh gia miie do nguy hicm do tai bitn
Cae \cu to gii) ldn thuang cua Song Hdng duoe xiic dinb gdm 2 nhdm ebinh. i) C ,,> U bifin* cae tai bien hfin quan dfin BDKH (xdi lo, bdi lu gay bifin ddng ludng lacIi, biio \.i I iul. diing eao muc nude bien) \ a d nhiem mdi irudng - bang 1 \'a ii) cac yeu td cudng ho tai bifin gdm nbdni eae >eu id tu nhifin (cac thiinh lao dia chat ven bien: bdn. bim ciii. ci
\a da gde) \ a nhdm boat dpng nban sinh (nudi lidng ihiiy siin, ndng nghifip. giao ihim
\an lai. thii cdng nghiep). Ngoai ra, mua Idn cd ihc liim thay doi do man ciia cae dam luii Ihiiy san cd he thdng ddi luu nude khdng tdt. Theo kicb ban phat thin trung binh, van cui the k\ 21. mirc tang nhicl dd trung binh niini cd ihfi ldi 2,8"C - 3.5"C d cac khu \uc nh thude Biic Trung Bd (luong iing theo kich ban niim 2009 \'a 2011). Nhiel dd tang se liii tang kha niing nhifim bfinh cua ibiiy san. dac bicl lit irong cac eac dam nudi. Nhu va> ci lai bifin \a hinh the Ihdi ticl cue doan ga\' ldn ihuong vung eira Sdng I ldng da dang lu:
nhifiu so \di cira sdng Delaware, Hoa K\ (ehu yfiu do diing cao muc nude bifin. bao i nude dang do bao. mua va lij. thay ddi do man) [IS],
Kel qua danh gia mirc do ngu>' hiem do tai bifin dii phan vimg nghien ciru vdi miic i nguy hifim lir thiip dfin eao. Trong dd. vimg cd miec dc) nguy hiim thcip chifim khoang 14 khu \'uc nghifin eiiu, gdm kbu vue dat lien n5ni sau trong bd bifin lir xn Hong Tien di Ddng Phong (hu\'fin Tifin Hai) Ird vao trong diil lifin. I'iing cd miec dc) nguy hii'in tun binb vd luerng den cao chicm difin lieh ldn nhiil. khoang 70% dicn lieb viing nghien cu phan bd d thi Iran Ticn llai. thj Iran Ngd Ddng vii eae xa ven bien Hdng Thuan. i 'i Nhiin. (nao Than. Titng cd mice ild nguy hiem cuo tai cua Sdng Hong cliifiin khoanu l(i dicn lieh M'mg nghien eim. Difiu dang Iuu y lii eac lai bifin cd miic do nguy hiiini kho gidng nhau ddi vdi cac he sinh thai khac nhau: diing cao mue mrdc bifin la yfiu Id nu hiem nhat ddi \oi he sinh thai nude Ig. edn diil ngiip nude nggt (vimg cira son" pbh' t lien) bi tac manb eua ca dang cao muc nude bifin. nude diing do biio, mua lu vii iha\ ^ dd man. .
,. r.iu ban Diul^£!^'^'i!J±£tlMB^
Kfit qua cho th,i). fiu ihfi cac viing cd mue dd nguy hifim luong ddi eao - eao la \ img cd , 4- ,gj ]„^^,i i;ao (bao. diing eao muc nude bien. d nhifim mdi Irudng), nhay cam cao \di
"-' lai bifin do hi LIH phdi bdi eac yeu td dia hinh (bang phang. do eao lliiip). dja ehiil (can 0 dudii« bo Iil ilianli pb5n bd rdi. he ibdng diil git>). thiiy van (he thdng sdng. lach phiin hd dav) ^Li ihfi nci\ luong lu nhu cac kel qua danh gia mire do nguy hifim Irong danh gia MDTT d ddl \cii hiL'H "lien ^'en - Hit Cdi [23]. Phan 'fbifil - Hd Tram |6], \inh GJinli Rai [3]. llaTifin-\'inh( ay Duong [4]
Bung 1: Diu-' il'i'" ^''''^' '^'' l>'i" l^l^" ''!"• f'fc Sdng Hdng I" ^ Tai bicn
Boi ty lain t)iLii cMni^
\ahng lach B3o va lu lul
Dang cao mirc niro'c bien
Kich ban nuac dans5 0,5m
Kich ban nuoc dang Im
0 nhi£m moi truong (0 nhiem dau, \viu\ ca 6 nhiem Pb irong nuoc; Pb.
Zn. As, Hii. PCR iroim iram licli)
Than 1)6 Doc liyi ben bo Song llonn, ocac vi !ri xuim
\cu nhi/ Hoanh San, Giaolluni: C ' u . X n (NiimOinli) llonu Iicn (Thai Rinh) Phia N;iiii LU.I som; l!a l.al. con Lu, coa Ni^an, con Mo Cac vung dat thap vcn bicn CO dia hinh kem iicii ihoai nuoc Viinu vcn bicn
Vun'.; vcn bicn
Khu vuc ven b6.\aNain
"Ihinh, Nam i'hu. Nam Thang. Giao Xui'm, Giao An va kbu vuc lir 14 - 20ni nuac
Cuonn do Toe do cao. 8 mnrnam (Giao An), 5 mm'nam (Nam Thinh)
"16c do boi King cao ["uom; doi manh
Tuons; doi nianli
\ao cuiii ihc kv 21, nuijc bicn dans; khoang 42- 74.2 cm {kicb ban phai thai Irung binh) va 59,3-95,3 cm (kich ban phai thai cao) Tiuns; bmh - ihap
Tiin sual Dicn ra han<; nam
1 huoim Nu>endiOii 1 -2 con b:io lon/iiam Dicn i-a himg nam
Dicn ra hang nam
Tani! dan ihco Ihoi gian
Tiic dong Mai dicn Uch din tliap va DNN
Can tra giao thong thuy. lieu thoai lu Ntiyp Cing dien tich vcn biC-ti Khoansi 4",ii dicn tich CO m;u\ ca bi niiap (anh huong true tic|>
den 3,4% so dan) Khoans; 11%
dicn lich co nguy ca bj ngap (anh huang ll uc licp den 10% so dan) Moi irirons; nuoc va moi irudng Irani tich, cac be sinb ihai va con nguoi
^'8ui}mfl,H.9.10,21J
2. Danh gia myt do diii tuong hi tdn tliu'imf^
Ddi luong bj tdn thuong d viing nghifin ciru dugc nhan dinh la eac cdng trinh nhiin sinh va cac loai lai ngu\fin. Trong dd. cae cdng trinh nhan sinh gdm: khu dan cu ehinh bao gdm cac Ihi iriin. limg, xa/phudng \'en bifin (.xa Nam Phii. Nam Thinh, Giao An, Giao Thifin. ihi Iran Ngd Ddng.. .); cdng trinh nhiin sinh ven bicn (he thdng giao thdng ven bicn. bfin thuyen. liiu.. .: cau edng ldn. de bicn; cac co sd nudi trdng va chfi bicn thiiy san, cae eo sd khai thac cat. .. ; trudng hoc. benh \'ifin. cdng trinh \an hda. cac dicm du lich (biii bien Bdng Chau. hai dao Cdn Thii va Cdn Vanh. Virdn Qudc gia Xuan Thuy) Trong eac loai tai nguyfin, dicn hinh la tiii ngujfin DNN duoc danh gia la cd su da dang va phong phii vdi
] 5? l-lai aiihi f^haa Iwc va Ciiiig ii.ijhe hieu laaii quae hin '>iir C
cac kicu DNN \uniz bidn a do sau duoi 6m khi trieu kiet, viing cua song, con va bai ngap 6 cira soiic. bai cit \iing gian Iricu. bai cat/biin viing gian trieu, viing nuiii uong tbuj san nuoc maii/lo, \iing lam muoi, rimg-ngap man |8,9]. Viing DNN na; CO tinh da dang sini, hoc cao nhit MiC-n BJc, rieng viing DNN Xufin 1 hiiy c6 192 loai thirc vat bac cao (chicm clili yC-u la cac loai Ihirc val ngap man); 55 loai dpng vat n6i, 113 loai con triing, 177 loai dong vat day. 108 loai ca. 24 loai bo sat. 13 lo.ii hrong cu. 136 loai chim. 9 loai thii |91
Viing nghien ciru dugc phan thanh cac viing khac nhau vc mat do diJi tugng bi ton thirong nhu sau- (Vm.i; cd mdt do diii tuong hi tim Ihuong Ihdp chicm 45% viing iii'hicn ciru. phan bo 6 ciic xii Nam Binh, Dong Hoang, Nam Cao, Hinh Minh va rai riic cr mi'il vai xa khac. IVmj; iij mdl dd ddi tuang hi ton thuong trung hinh vu luvng ddi cuo: clnem khoang 45% dicn lich, bao gSm mgt phan bai biin cat viing gian trieu \ ii mgt so xavLii ria nhu Ilong Thuan, Giao Nhan, Giao Thanh, vii thj tran Ti5n llai, Ngo Dong I'iing co mill dil din tuang hi tdn Ihuong eao: chiC-m 10%i dicn lich thugc dja phan cac xil Giao 1 ,;iC'n, Giao An. Giao Lac. Giao Xuiin \ii Giao lliii (noi co Viron Quoc gia Xuan Thiiy), xii rJam Phil. Nam Hung. Nam Thinh (Khu Bao ton thicn nhii;n Ticn lliu).
I lau het dien tich cac \ iing ven bi6n thugc Khu Ramsar Xuan Thiiy va Khu Bau lon thicn nhicn Ticn Hai la nhung noi cd mat do doi tugng bj t6n thuang cao vai sir da dang va phong phu cae loai DNN Co da dang sinh hgc cao. gia trj va chirc nang quan trong ; • .ng phat tri6n KT - XI I. BVMI vii phong ch6ng thien tai. Ciing voi do. cac xa vcn bicn. noi CO mat do dan cu \ii cong trinh nhan sinh cao dugc ddnh gia CO mat dg doi tugng bi liin thuong luang doi cao - cao. Danh gia nay cho ket qua tuong tu nhu danh gia mat do doi tugng bi ton thuang a doi vcn biiin Phan Thiiit - I lii Triim [6] vii vjnh Tallin Yen [23J 3, Uiinh giii kha nang u-ng pho he thong t y nhien - xa hgi
Kha niing ung pho ciia he thong tu nhicn - xii hgi cira Song Hong dugc nhan dinh gom kha nang ung pho tu nhicn (kha nang tu phuc hoi, chong chiu, duy tri chirc nang va gid trj tu nhicn) ciia tiii nguyen, moi trucrng nhu cac he sinh thai, thanh tao dja chiit, yeu to dia hinh - dia mao \en biiin va licm lire img pho xa hgi (voi cac ticu chi la trinh do \an hoa, giao due, cong t.ac quan l\. to chirc, bao ve phong tranh tai bien va cac cong trinh phimg chong tai biiin). Vc kha nang irng pho tu nhien, he sinh thai rirng ngap man dugc danh gia la CO kha nang irng pho tu nhicn cao nhat, do co kha nang chdng chiu, giam thiSu tdc diing ciia cac yeu to gay ton thuang (xoi 16, bao lu. 6 nhiem moi truimg,...), dSng thoi ci> klia nang phuc hoi cao sau cac tdc dgng. Cac hoat dgng tren thugng ngu6n nhu xay dap thuy dicn Iloa Binh. San La...ban che lugng tram lich dua ra cira Song H5ng, Idm gidm liV do boi tu ra phta bien. liim giam khd nang irng pho ciia DNN a 6ay
Kcl qua phan viing kha nang ung pho ciia he thdng lu nhien - xa hgi viing nghien im nhu sau: Vimg cd kha ndng irng phd Ihap. viing Co kha nang irng pho didp bao gom loim bg \iing cira song va viing bien vdi chidm dicn tich 33% viing nghien citu. Vitng tw khii ndng img phd irung hinh chidm khoang 25% dicn tich nghien cdu, gdm loan bd ddi vcn bien - noi cd rimg ngap man, Ihudc dja phan cac xa Giao Lac, Giao Xuan, Qiao llai (huydn Giao Thuy) \ a cac xi! Nam Phu, Nam Hung. Nam Thjnh (huydn Ticn Hai), N.'oai ra. con phan bd d nhidu nai Irong dat lidn nhu cac xii Hong Tidn, Binh Dinh, Bdc Ih;; \a
Tiiu ban Dia ly. T)ui chdl vd Dia vdi ly Bien
TA' rac d cac xa khac. Vimg cd khd ndng dng phd tuang ddi cao- chicm 25% dien tich ffhien cuu, phan bd d cae xa Nam Hai, Binh Djnh, Giao Long, Giao Lae, Giao Thanh va Giao Huong (huyen Giao Thuy) \'a Tay Son. Ddng Phong, Ddng Lam (Huyen Tifin Hai) Viine CO khd ndng ung phd cao: chiem khoang 27% dien tich, gdm cac xa ven bicn nbu Dong Minh. Nam Ihinh, Nam Thanh, Giao Thien. Giao An.
Viing cd kha nang irng phd cao la vimg giau ed liem luc xa hpi (tap trung dan cu, diin tri cao. cac co sd ha tang phong chdng tai bien va ehu trong cac cong tae BVMT, phdng chdng tai bien) va he sinh thai rirng (dac bifit la rirng ngap man) phat trifin.
4. Phan vung miie do ton thuong lai nguyen, moi truong ciia Sdng Hong Trfin cc BAN DO Mirc DO T O N THU'ONG CU'A S O N G H O N G
liinh 3: Bdn do mice dc) tdn thuang ldi nguyen, moi truang cira Sdng Hdng. ty le 1:100.000
)d chdng chap cd trong sd 3 hop phiin. (i) mirc do nguy hiem do lai bien, (ii) mat dp ddi tugng bi ton thuong va (iii) kha niing irng phd ciia he thdng lir nhien xa hoi bang phuong phap phan lich khdng gian va trpng sd.
ban do MDTT lai nguyen, mdi trudng eira Sdng Hdng, ty le 1:100.000 duge thanh lap vdi MDTT tir thap dfin cao (hinh 3). Trong dd, Vimg CO MDTT ihdp: chiem khoang 3,3% viing nghien euu, phan bd d eac xa nam Irong luc dia huyfin Tien Hai nhu Vu Bang, Binh Minh, Nam Binh, Ddng Phong. Day la vimg each xa bd bien, it tac ddng cua cac yeu td gay tdn thuong (chi chiu tae ddng cua tai bien biio, lu d cudng dp nhd va gan nhu khdng bj sue ep eua cac hoat dong phat trifin kinh te), khdng phong phu ve tai nguyen va
He'll nghi Khou hoc \ ii Cong nghe hicn loim quoc hm ihii (
kha nang ung phd d mirc trung binh - luong ddi cao Vimg cd MDTT inmg binh. clufira khoang 13,8% dien tieh vimg nghien eiru (gdm eae xa iCr Hdng Thuan dfin Giao llai, mpi ph^n d xa Giao An). Vieng cd MDTT luong dot cao: chifim pban ldn vimg nghifin eiru. bao gdm nipt pbAn dien ticb vimg gian trieu - mac dii day la khu vue ed mii'c dp chui aiili hudng ciia mdl sd tai bifin (bao, lu. d nbicm, xdi Id. bdi lu gay bicn ddng ludng lach) mat dp doi tuong bj ton thuong va kha nang ii'ng pho chi d muc truiig binb Vimg cd ,\inT]
cao: chifim khoang 8% viing nghifin ciiii, dicn tich eac xa ven bifin Giao Thifin. Giao ! ac.
Giao Xuan va Giao Hai (huyen Giao Thiiy); Nam Thinh, Nam Hung. Nam Phii (huyfin 1 JC-n Hai) Day la khu vuc iiliay cam cao vdi cae lai bifin (xdi Id, bao. dang eao muc nude bicn) \a cac tac ddng mdi trudng, cd mat do ddi lugng bi ldn thuong luang ddi eao - cao (difin hinh la cac hfi sinh thai DNN) va kha nang img phd tuong doi cao.
Kfit qua danh gia MDTT tai nguyen, moi trudng ddi ven bifin cua Sdng Ildng eho thay MDTT cd quan he luong ddi tuyfin tinh vdi mirc dp nguy hifim do lai bifin Cu itifi. \Ling co MDTT tuong ddi cao - cao thudng la viing mii'c dp nguy hifim do lai bifin cao (chm lac ddng manh eiia cac tai bifin bao, bdi tu gay bifin dong ludng lach, dang cao muc nuoc hifiii, 6 nhicni moi truimg va cae yfiu Id lu nhifin, xa hpi cudng hda tai bifin); mat dp ddi luong bi ton thuang cao (lap trung dan cu, cac edng Irinh nhan smh va eac loai tai nguyen DNN co gia Iri \'a chiic nang ldn nhu rimg ngap man) va kha nang irng phd d miic trung binh - luong ddi cao (nhd kha nang phuc hoi/chdng chiu ciia rirng ngap man. cdng lac bao \'fi va phdng tranh tai bifin). Nhung vimg co MDTT thap la nai it bi de doa bdi >eu Id gfi} ion thuong. mai dd tai ngu\ fin thua ihdl va kba nang u'ng phd trung binh Kfit qua nay eho ihay kha nang iing phd cua he ihdng lu nhicn - xa hoi Irudc tai bifin (difin hinh la eac lae (.long do BDKH) ehua cao, cdn Ihicu cac chinh sach, chifin luge, hanb ddng thich iing \di BDKH. dac biet la thieu eac nghien cuu nham lang eudng kha nang chdng ehiu, phuc hfii ciia ciia he thdng tu nhien.
Trong thai gian tdi, MDTT tai nguyen, mdi Irudng ddi vcn bifin Viet Nam ndi chung va cira Sdng Hdng noi rieng du bao se tang nfiu thieu cac chifin luge, giai phap, hanh ddng thieh ung kip thdi vdi BDKH cung nhu giam thifiu thiet hai tai bifin, BVMT; va gia lang cac boat ddng khai thac, su dung tai nguyen, mdi Irudng thifiu hgp ly (gia tang klidi hrgng chat thai lir cac boat dpng phat trifin thiiy san, cdng nghiep, giao thdng van tdi, khai ihac khoang san,...).
HL DE XUAT CAC GIAI PHAP SUDUNG BEN VU'NG TAI NGUYEN BAO NL MOI TRUONG VA TIIICH U^JG VOI BIEN D O I K I H HAU CUA SONG IIONG Nh^m SDBV tai nguyen. BVMT v^ ihich irng vdi BDKH eira Sdng I Idng c5n quan lani toi ket qua phan viing MDTT dfi co cae giai phap thich hop giam ihifiu lac ddng ciia eac iai b.cn hfin quan dfin BDKH ^'a hoat dpng phat trifin KT- XII iam suy giam chdl luon" lai nguyen, moi truang. cuong hda tai bien; quy hoach sir dung tai nguyfin. mdi Irudno ifing cudng kha nang irng phd thifin tai hay thieh ung vdi BDKH. Tren eo sd dd mdt sd o,ai phap SDBV tai nguyen. mdi trudng va thich irng vdi BDKH vimg nghifin cii'u'duoi"dfi xuat gom: quan ly (lang cudng hifiu luc cua luat phap, ehinh sach, quan ly dua vao c.Hig dong, quan ly tong hgp dd; bd, ehifin Iugc, giai phap va banh ddng ihich irng vdi BDK 11)"
quy hoaeh SDBV tai nguyfin, mdi trudng (voi cac md hinb kinh tfi bfin vung nhu noii'^
„ ban DUI IV. DIU cbcil viiDui veil ly Bii-n
hien nudi trontz thiiy san va du ljch sinh thai va md hinh bao vc tai nguyen DNN nhu lv dirng cae tram quan irSe va giam sat lai nguyen DNN); giai phap giam thifiu thicl hai thien tai do BDKH (khdi phuc va md rpng difin tich rimg ngap man, xay dyng cac edng trinh bao vc bd bifin, chong xoi Id....). Cach tifip can nay la mdt hudng mdi, hicn dai nham bao ve tai nguyen, moi irudng va tang cudng nang luc phdng tranh, giam thieu tai bicn.
d5c bifit la BDKH. Ngoai ra can xay dung va van hanh he ihdng quan trac tac ddng BDKH v^ cac dap thiiy dicn tren sdng Da...ddi vdi DNN (cac dac trungeiia he sinh thai, habitat, cac Ioai. nhdt la sinh \'al biini day. ...) d diiy dc xii> dung co sd dii' lieu phuc vu du bao \a ling phd vdi BDKH \ a dieu ehinh eac boat ddng nhan sinh bat lgi cho da dang sinh hoc noi rifing. tai nguyen va mdi iruimg ndi chung.
Bimg 2' De xudt mdt sd glut phdp SDB I' tut nguyen, BI 'MT. ihich icng vc'n BDKH cuu Sdng Hong tren co so ddnh gid MDTT
PhSo vUng MDTT Viing cfi MDTT thap
VungCO MDTT trung binh
Viitig cfi MOTT (iro'ng (101 cao
Viing cfi M D T T cao
Dia diem I'lian bo i;ac \i\ \n bicn liiiyeii TiC'ii H i i i : V u Bang. Rinh M i i i l i , Nnin B i n h , D o n g Phong Cac \ a t u I l o n g 1 luian den Giao l l a i , m o l phan ff \ a G i a o A n ( l u i \ c n Giao T h u y )
Dicn tich v i i n g gian t n e u v i i n g nghien cirii, i r u n g taiii huyen T i e n l l a i va G i a o T h u y
Phan bo 6 cac xa vcn bicn Giao T h i c n . Giao A n , Giao Lac, Giao Xuan va Giao Hai (huyen G i a o T h i i y ) va N a m T l i i n h . N a m H u i i g . N a m Phii (huyen TiOn Hai)
Cnc giai phap
- K l i u \ O n k l i i c l i phai i r i c n cac mo h m h ivinii lc bi;n v u n g , n i i n g nghiep sinli i h a i , nuoi l i o n g i h i i y san sinh thin
- A p dung cac giai phap quan ly tai n g u y e n , m o i t r u o n g . giao due ciJng dong vc chuc nang va gia Irj lin n g u y e n , m o i t r i r d n g (dSc b i e l la tai nsiUNcn D N N ) .
- U u l i e n phai t n e n cac m o hinh k i n h le ben vung n o n g nghiep va nuoi I r o n g t h u \ san sinh thai
- A p d u n g cac g i a i phap quan ly lai n g u y e n , m o i t r u o n g theo quy ehe eua V u a n quae gia
- K h o i phuc he sinh thai r i i n s nuap m3n
- A p dung cac mo h i n h k i n h tc ben v u n g ' nuoi t r o n g i h u y san sinh t h a i , khai ihac thuy san ben v i r n g , phat t n e n c o n g nghiep sach.
- A p d u n g cac giai phap quan l y tai n g u y e n , m o i t r u a n g . giai phap t h i c h irng v a i H D K I I , giao due c o n g d o n g ve chirc nang va gia t n tai nuu>en, m o i t r u a n g (dac b i c t la tin nauven D N N ) . - A p dung cac giai phap quan !y, bao vc n g h i e m ng$t i y tin nguyen, m o i trucrng theo quy che ciia V u a n quoc gia.
- T u y e n t r u \ c n va giao due c o n g dong ve c h i i c nang va gia I r i ciia tdi n g u j e n , n i o i tru-ong
- T n e n khai cac g i a i phap g i a m thiOu thiOt hai do tai biOii lion quan den B D K H va 6 nhiem m o i t r u o n g ( k h o i phuc m o r o n g dien Uch rirng ngap man)
- X a y d u n g c h i c n l u g e , giai phap, hanh d p n g i h i c h i m g v a i B D K M
IV. KET L l AN
I Mirc dp tdn thuang lai nguyfin, nidi Irudng cira Sdng Hdng dupe danh gia ibco ba hpp pnan: cac yeu td gay tdn thuang (cac lai bicn dicn hinh nhu xdi Id, bao, bdi tu bien Qong ludng laeh, dang cao mue nude bifin. d nhiem mdi trudng va cac yeu td lu nhicn va nhan sinb cudng hda tai bifin); cac ddi tupng bj ton thuong (tiii nguyen DNN, c;ic cdng
Hal ni>hi Khaa hae va Cang n^he bien taan qiiae tan Um V
trinh nhan sinh,...) va kha nang ling pho ciia he Ihong lir nhicn - xa hoi (Irinh do hpc \"iii, CO so y tk, he th6ng Ihong tin lien lac, cong trinh giam Ihieu tai bien,. .). Ket qua danh gia IvlDTT tai nguyen, moi truong cira Song H6ng dugc chia thanh cac vimg co muc dr. lij thap d6n cao: Vimg co MDTT cao thuang la noi chiu lac dong manh eiia cac tai bicn. lap trung dong dan eu va eac loai tai nguyen DNN co gia tri va ehue nang eao (cae xa \cii bien Giao Thicn, Giao An, Giao Lac, Giao Xuan va Giao Hai (huyen Giao Thiiy) va ;• am Thinh, Nam Hung, Nam Phu (huyen Ti6n Hai) eiing voi kha nang itng pho a mire Hung binh -tuong doi eao. Viing co IVIDTT thap chu y6u la nhung noi it bj dc doa boi cin lai biSii, lai nguyen DNN kem phong phu, xa cae trung lam kinh tc va dan eu thua thoi (cac xa xa bijn eiia huyen Tien llai nhu Vu BJng. Binh Minh, Nam Binh, Dong Phong); klia nang irng pho o mue trung binh dua theo trinh do dan tri, CO so ha tiing phong chong lai bien.
2. Mol so giai phap sir dung bin vung tai nguyen, moi tructng va thich img voi BDI'CII dugc dh xudt dua tren eo sa danh gia MDTT lai nguyen, moi trucrng cua Song Hong, .juan ly (tang eirong hicu lire eiia luat phap, chinh sach, quan ly dua vao cgng dong, quaji ly t6ng hgp dcri bcr, xay dung chien luoc, giai phap va hanh dong thich ung vol BDK.H). quy hoaeh SDBV tai nguyen, moi trutmg (iru tit;n phat tnen eac mo hinh kinh tc ben vung nhir nong nghiep, nuoi trong thiiy san va du lich sinh thai), eac giai phap giam thieu lai bicu va thich irng voi BDKH (khoi phuc va ma rgng dien tich rirng ngap man, xay dung cac eong trinh bao vc bo bicn, chong xoi Icr xay dung cac tram quan triie va giam sat tin ngii.cn DNN).
3. Kel qua nghien cuu cho viing eira Song Hong ma eo the ap dung cho cac viing ciia song ven bien Viet Nam nhu la CO so quan trgng de cae nha quan ly dua ra chinh sich, chien luge thich irng voi BDKH, giam thieu tae dgng dg BDKH den tai nguyen, luoi trucmg doi ven bien va la eo sir khoa hgc cho danh gia mgi Iruong chien Iugc.
Lot ciim on
De hoan thanh dugc bai bao, tap the tac gia giri lai cam an su ho trg cua Du an "Dieu tra, danh gia MDTT tai nguyen, moi trudng, khi lugng thuy van Viet Nam, du bao Ihien tai, 6 nhilm moi trutmg tai eac vting bien" va DS tai eo ban ma s5 105.09.82.09
TAI LIEU TIIAM KHAO Tdi lieu ttiing Viet
1 Bg Tai nguyen va moi trucmg, Du thdo "Kich bdn BDKH vd nuirc biin ddng dm I iU Worn" (2011).
2. Lc Thj Thu Hicn, Mai Trgng Nhuan, TrSn Van Y, "Ddnh gid tdn Ihuang phuc vu dw quy hoach vd qudn ly indi trudng (ldy vi du a Ihiinh phd Hdi Phong vd phu cdn) " I ap chi Cac Khoa hoc ve Trai dal, s6 1 (T.28), 2006, u. I-IO.
3. Nguyen Thi H6ng Hue va nnk, "Ddnh gid mdc dg ldn Ihuimg ldi nguyen dui . hill dinh hudng su dung bin vimg vinh Gdnh Rdi, tinh Bd Ria - I dng Tou " T-in rhi Dia ehat, loat A. 56 312,5-6/2009, tr.10-23. ' '^ '
XiSubanDia_ly_£l£chdt2
4 Thai Thanh Lugm va nnk. Danh gia muc dp tdn thumig he thdng lu nhien KT - XH vung bifin Ha Tien - Vinh Cay Duong (Kien Giang). Tap chi dia chat sd 310 (sd 1- 2/2009).
5 Ngan hang thfi gidi. "Anh hudng cua muc nude bien ddng cr cue nude dang phdl Iriin Phdn tich vd .so sdnh" (2007)
6 Mai Trpng Nhuan. Nguyen Thi Hong Hue. Tran Dang Quy. Nguyen Tai Tue, "Ddnh gid mirc do de bj ldn thuang ddi ven bien Phan Thiet - Hd Trdm, Vii't Xam phuc vu phdt triin ben vicng" Tap chi khoa hpc Dai hpc Qudc gia Ha Ndi, sd 4 (21), 2005. lr.
6-16.
7 Mai Trpng Nhuan va nnk ^'-Nghien cieu. de xudt md hinh, gtdi phdp sir dung ben vieng lai nguyen dta chdt ddi duyen lun (ldy vi du vimg Phan Thii't - Vimg Tdu ". De tai dae biet cap Dai hoc Qude gia Ha Ndi QG.05.27 (2006).
8. Mai Trpng Nhuan va nnk. Herp phdn "Dut ngcjp nuac ven bien Viel Nam " thudc du dn
"Ngdn ngica xu hudng suy thodi mdi iruirng Bien Ddng vu vtnh Thui Lan ". Nha xuat ban Dai hpc Qudc gia. I la Ndi (2007).
9. Mai Trong Nhuan \'a nnk Bdo cdo du dn "Dieu Ira, deinh gid, thdng ke, quy hogch cdc klm bdo ton ddt ngdp nuoc cd y ngliTu cpidc le, qudc gia". Luu IrU lai Tong cue Mdi irudng (2007)
10. Mai Trpng Nhuan va nnk. Bdo cdo die dn "Dieu ira ddnh gid linh hinh epiy hoach. ke hogch sir dung ddt ngdp nuac ven bien vd de xudl phuang huang cpiy hoach sir dung nhdm bdo ve mdi trudng vd phemg chong thiin leu ". Luu tri> tai Tdng cue Mdi Irudng (2008).
11. Mai Trpng Nhuan va nnk. "Dieu Ira, ddnh gid tdi nguyen mdi truang cdc vung vtnh trgng diem ven ba phuc vu phdt trien kinh li - xd hgi vd bdo ve mdi Iruang ". Dc lai dgc lap cap Nha nude KC 09.05/06-10 (2009).
12. Pham Quang San, "Dien bien long ddn ha luu Song Hdng trong 15 ndm vdn hdnh khai thdc nhd mdy thity dien Hod Binh". Tap ehi Cac Khoa hpe ve Trai dat, 26/4/2004. trang 520-531.
13. Vifin Nghifin cuu nudi trdng thiiy san I. Bao cao "Dieu tra nghien cicu hien trgng vd bien phdp bdo ve. phuc hoi mdl .so lodi cd hoang dd qui hiem cd nguy ca tuyet chung tren he thdng Sdng Hdng "(2000).
Tdi lieu Tieng Anh
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15. Danielle Kreeger et al.. Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary- Three Case study on Vulnerabilily assessment and AdapleUion planning (2010).
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