he sioi: Van de - Su kien l^p chi C»na » * "
NHUNG CHUYEN DONG MANH ME TRONG QUAN HE GIUA CAC NUOC LON NAM 2014
N G U Y E N N G Q C TRU"6fNG*
Thigi&i ndm 2014xdy ra nhiiu biin dgng bdt ng& v&i tac dpng con keo ddi t&i ndm 2015. Su ehuyin dich trgng tdm quyin lyc quyit dinh tuffng lai thigi&i tu- chau Au sang chdu A - Thdi Binh Duong diin ra mgnh mi, chdu A se vdn Id "ddu tdu" tdng tru&ng eua kinh ti thigi&i; My Hip tgc chinh sdch xoay trgc sang chdu A, nhung mdi quan tdm phan ndo biphdn tdn vdo nhirng xung dot cue bp m&i & chdu Au vd Trung Ddng. Hoa binh vd phdt triin Id xu hu&ng chu dgo trong ddi song thigi&i, nhung cupc cgnh tranh chiin lirffc giua cae nu&c l&n vdn dien ra gay gat, tde dgng din nhiiu mgt quan he qudc ti vd chdu A - Thdi Binh Duffng.
Xung ddt cue bo va sy bien dong Tong quan he giua cac nu^c Idrn
Vdi eie hinh thflc va muc do khac nhau,
;ac cugc xung dot eye bg tai chiu Au, Tnmg Ddng vi Ddng A da tic ddng ding kd den
;hinh sach vi quan he giiia cic nudc ldn.
Qua ttmh lidn ket va hdi nhgp chiu Au chiu inh hudng nghidm ttgng khi ngay giua long :ua mdt chau luc ma hda binh ngu tri sudt 70 lim qua, tai mien Ddng cua U-crai-na dang lidn ra eude xung dot vu ttang quydt liet.
JCuat phit tfl ngi bg chia re, cic dang chinh tti theo dudi Igi ich vung mien, hen hudng Ddng, bdn hudng Tay, gidi cim quydn chinh tri rdi ren, thidu tam nhin toan dien vd ddi ndi vi ddi ngoai; sy can thidp cua ben ngoai lam cho sy chia re ttong xa hgi U-crai-na thdm ttim ttgng, khien dat nudc Ddng Au niy chip nhgn mdt cugc "dgi phiu thuit" dl phuong Tay hda va gia nhgp Lien minh chau Au (EU) ma chua bidt cii gii phai tta se cao bay thip din muc nio. Ngiy 23-12-2014, Qudc hgi U-erai-na bai bd quy ehe phi lidn minh quan sy, md dudng cho khi nang cd
thd gia nhap lien minh quin su nhu Td ehue Hiep udc Bae Dai Tay Duong (NATO) ttong tuong lai.
Theo dudi muu dd kidm che nudc Nga, phuong Tiy Igi dung cugc xung dot U-crai-na dd bao viy, cd lap, lim suy ydu nude Nga, nhim sip xdp Igi ban cd dia - ehinh tri tai khu vye nay cua chiu Au. Trong bdi cinh do, nudc Nga van dung nhiing li bai cd ttong tay dl ddi phd vdi cugc bao viy cam van nghiem ttgng cua phuang Tay. Ddng y sip nhap Crum theo nguydn vgng cua tuyet dgi da sd ngudi din noi diy ttong cudc bd phieu trung eiu din y vd viec sap nhgp Crum vao Nga la ddn phin kich thu hai cua Nga thdi ky h|u Chidn ttanh lanh (ke tfl cugc phin kich dau tien la cugc chidn 5 ngiy d Nam 6-xd-ti-a gifla Nga vi Gru-di-a vio nim 2008) chdng lai qua tnnh "Ddng tiln" cua NATO ip sat bien gidi Nga. Hidn nudc Nga dung tmdc nhung khd khin: gii diu giam, chd tai cim
* TS, Chii tich Trung tam NghiSn cuu chiSn luOc va Phat trien quan he quoc tfi
Thegiiai: Van de - Su kidn Top chi C d n g s a n van cfla phuong Tiy bit diu "ngam" vio cic
tl bio kinh tl - xa hgi vi ddng rup rot gii 50% so vdi ddng dd-la My ttong mdt thdi gian ngin ky lye. Du bao, nhthig khd khan ldn hon nfla dang ehd dgi nudc Nga ttong nam 2015. Dilu niy di duge Thu tudng D. Met-vd-dep dua ra tai phidn hgp md rgng n^iy 23-12-2014 eua Hgi ddng Toan thd vi Tdi cao cua Ding Nudc Nga thdng nhit, khi dng tuyen bd ring nin kinh td Nga vin cd kha nang roi vao "suy thoai siu hon". Tuy nhien, neu nude Nga thyc hidn dugc mdt cugc cii td sau rgng ndn kinh td theo hudng hidn dai hda thi trong eii rui se cd cii may.
Hidn nay, Nga dang chd truong chuydn ddi CO cau nen kinh td don nhat dya ttdn ning lugng va cdng nghi?p qudc phdng sang phit huy the mgnh cua nudc Nga la nguydn lieu, ning lugng vi dit dai, thdng qua vide hidn dai hda edng nghd khai thic vi chd bidn tai nguydn thidn nhien,...
Cic nudc ldn khac d chau Au cung it nhieu bi anh hudng trye tidp khi thye hien cic bien phip trimg phat kinh td ddi vdi Nga.
Trong cudc chidn trimg phat vi tti dua kinh te nay, Trung Qude dugc hudng Igi ldn khi vua ting cudng lidn ket chien luge Trung Qude - Nga dd ddi ttgng vdi My tgi chau A - Thii Binh Duong, vfla gia ting xim nhgp tiu tiirdng Nga, eiing nhu Trung va Ddng Au, do dd cd thdm Igi thd khi My "xoay trye" sang ehiu A - Thai Binh Duong. Sy cang thing ttong quan he My - Nga "da dit diu chim hdt cho vide cii dit lai quan he §ifla hai nudc (My - Nga) vi ed anh hudng din su chuyen hudng chiln luge sang phia Ddng cua My, tri hoan sy bit diu mgt vin bii chidn luge toin di?n gifla M^ vdi Trung Qudc"'''. Ve kinh tl. My li qudc gia gin nhu chua bj tic dgng tidu eye td vide ip dgt l?nh trimg phgt kinh tl hay tfl bien phip tti diia cua Nga, thim chi cdn dugc hudng Igi nhit khi nudc nay gia ting eo hgi tidp can thi tiirdng nang lugng cua Lidn mmh ehiu Au (EU) va thuc diy dam phan Hidp dinh Ddi tic thuong mai
va diu tu xuydn Dgi Tay Duong (TTIP). My ting cudng sy hien didn quin sy d Trung Au, Ddng Au, vung Ban-tich, cung ed ding ke inh hudng vi vi thd truyen thdng nhu li tnmg tam cfla lyc hip din tai chau luc nay.
Dd giii quyet cudc khdng hoing chinh tri tgi U-crai-na, ddi vdi My, nudc Nga la mgt phin cua vin dd song ciing la mgt phin cua giii phip. Sdm hay muon, Oa-sinh-ton sd phii lya chgn giai phip ddi thogi vdi Mit-xco-va de tim Idi thoat cho cugc khung hoing niy, Mdi diy, Tdng thdng My B. 0-ba-ma di k^
sic Idnh ip dgt cac lenh trimg phgt mdi ddi vdi Nga, nhung, ciing chinh dng B. 0-ba-ma khing dinh, "tgi thdi diem niy, Chinh phu My chua cd y dinh ap dit cac lenh trimg phat do". Them nua, viec Tdng thdng B. 6-ba-ma ky sac lenh trung phgt Nga lin nay khdng nhin dugc sy ung hd cua Brfle-xen bdi cac nudc chau Au khdng thdng nhat ve cac I?nh trung phgt ma cac nudc nay dy dinh nham vio Nga ttong tuong lai. Tdng thdng Phip Ph. 6-lang-da ba>; td tin tudng ring, cic lenh trimg phgt kinh te nham vao Nga ndn duge ddbd.
Tgi Trung Ddng, sy xuit hidn thd luc Hdi giio eye doan mdi - Nhi nude Hdi giio (IS) tu xung - theo mdt gdc dg nio dd ia he qui tfl eudc can thidp gin diy nhat cua My d I-rie (tii nam 2003 - 2011), cung ehinh sich can thidp, chia re tfl ben ngoai, cung nhu cua xung dgt vi khimg hoing ngi tgi d khu vuc Tnmg Ddng va thi gidi Hdi giao.
Nhung cugc cich mang dudng phd "Mua xuin A-rip" li mgt phan cua ting bang ngim chidn ttanh logn lac, khung hoing va mau thuan mang tinh thdi dai. Viec xiy dung (judc gia dn dinh, dan ehu va phit triln kinh td giiu mgnh la ydu td then chdt dk xda
(1) Russian Factor Postpones Comprehensive Strategic Game between US and China-hltp;//www.
chinausfocus.com/foreign~policy/riissian-factor- postpones-comprehensive-strategic-game-between-us- and-china/
So 868 (thing 2 nam 2015) 101
The gioi: Van de - Su- kien Tpp cm c p n g 3 bd lyc lugng Hdi giio cue doan, khflng bd
ttong nudc vi dn dinh khu vuc.
Dd ddi phd vdi tinh hinh. My mdt lin nfla Igi dinh liu vio mgt cugc xung ddt quin su phflc tgp khac thudng d Trung Ddng, ttii vdi nhiing tuyen bd nguyen tic mang tinh hgc thuylt an ninh ddi ngoai duge Tdng thdng My B. 6-ba-ma dua ra tai Vidn Han lam quan su West Point ngiy 28-5-2014 ring, My "khdng dua luc lugng quan su tham gia cudc ndi chidn sac tge"; "khdng can thidp vio nhung vin dd toin ciu d nhiing noi khdng de dga true tilp tdi nudc My"'^'. Hanh ddng quin su cua My chdng IS bde Id nhung miu thuan gifla muc tidu ehidn ttanh, uu tidn qude gia vi ngudn lyc cua nude My, eimg nhu each thfle didu hinh ehinh sieh an ninh qudc gia ttong gidi hoach dinh chinh sich quan su d Oa-sinh-ton, din tdi su tfl chflc cua ngudi dflng dau bd miy chidn tranh cua My - Bg trudng Qude phdng C. Hay-go. Tdng thdng B. 6-ba-ma vi eie nha hogeh dinh quan su cfla My da chuan bi tim ly cho ngudi din nude nay vd vide cugc chidn chdng IS se keo dii ttong nhidu nim.
6 ehiu A Thii Binh Duong, Trung Qude ttanh thu tinh hinh My dang bi co keo bdi ehidn luge toan ciu dd thuc diy mgt trat ty khu vuc mdi ttong do Trung Qude ddng vai ttd ehu dao. Didu niy duge thd hidn ndi bit tai Hdi nghi Thugng dinh lin thu tu vd Phdi hgp hanh ddng va Cic bien phip xay dung Idng tin d chau A (CICA), ngay 21-5-2014, khi Chu tieh nudc Trung Qudc Tap Can Binh dd cap den mdt ttgt ty an ninh ehiu A do ngudi chau A va eua ngudi chau A: "Cic su vide cua chiu A suy cho eung ein phai dua vao nhan dan chau A giii quyet, vin dd cua ehiu A suy cho eung cin phai dya vao ngudi dan chau A xu ly, an ninh cua ehiu A suy cho cimg ciing cin phii dya vio bin thin ngudi dan chau A bio vd.
Nhan dan chiu A cd nang lyc, cd tri tue dl hien thuc hda hda bmh, dn dinh tai chau A thdng qua viec ting eudng hgp tac"'^'. Trong
nd lyc triln khai chu truang xiy dyng Trung Qudc thanh cudng qudc bien, qude gia niy di diy mgnh cie hoat ddng ttanh chip bidn, dio, ehuyin dich ttgng tam ttanh chip tfl bidn Hoa Ddng xudng Biln Ddng. Tai Bien Ddng, Trung Qude dua eude ttanh chip ldn mgt giai dogn mdi kidm soat ttdn thyc dia, khai thic ttdn thyc te, tieh cue xay dung cac dao nhan tao d khu vye quan dio Trudng Sa de thiet lap cic can cfl quan sy nham khdng chd Bidn Ddng va ndi dai "cin choi" quin su cua Trung Qudc tdi cac nudc Ddng Nam A hii dio vi xa hon vd phia Nam Thii Binh Duong. It cd CO sd dd dua ra dy bio Igc quan ve kha ning sdm dgt dugc mgt giai phip ngoai giao tfl eude thuong lugng dang hi keo dii vd Bg quy tie flng xfl d Bidn Ddng (COC).
Mgt dgng thai mdi cua eudc cgnh ttanh chien luge gifla Trung Qude vi My mang tam vdc thd ky da bgc Id ro vao cudi nam 2014. Tai Hdi nghi Thugng dinh Didn din hgp tic kinh te chau A - Thii Binh Duong lin thu 22 (APEC-22) dugc td chuc d Bic Kinh ngay 8-11-2014, Trung Qudc da cdng bd quy 40 ty USD dl thue hidn dai dy in
"nhit ddi nhat Id" (mdt vanh dai mgt con dudng to lua). Quy niy cung eip ngudn vdn cho cae qudc gia vimg ven cua con dudng to lua ttdn dat lien vi ttdn bg, ttong eac linh vye, nhu xiy dung kit ciu ha ting, khai thac tai nguydn, hgp tie nginh, nghd, tii ehinh ngan hang. Sd tien nay se cho cic qudc gia vay dl mua cic sin phim "Made in China"
(sin xuat tai Trung Qudc) ttong xay dung kit eiu hg tang. Diy la khoin diu tu cho giai dogn diu, nhim gdp phin cai thidn kuih td qudc ndi eua Trung Qudc dang vira du thfla hing hda, vua du thfla ngogi hdi, ddng thdi
(2) http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/full- iext-of-president-obamas-commencement-address- at-wesi-point/20}4/05/28/cfbcdcaa-e670-1} e3-afc6' aldd9407abcf_story html
(3) Xinhuanet.com, ngay 21-5-2014
Tile gim: van ae - Su kien Tap <hfi C^ng sAn md rdng phgm vi inh hudng kinh td cung
nhu an ninh hang hii cua Trung Qudc trdn ba dai lue A - Au - Phi.
Vi$c hidn thyc hda y tudng niy se keo dai vi chac chin ddi mgt vdi khdng it khd khan, trd lyc, tuy nhidn, "con dudng to lya" tten bg da dugc khdi ddng vi dugc nhieu qudc gia chau A, chau Au, A-rgp hudng ung. Ngiy 16-12-2014, tuyen dudng sit xuyen lyc dia xuat phit tfl Trung Qude di qua cie nudc Ca-dic-xtan, Nga, Bd-la-nit, Ba Lan, Dflc, Phip tdi Tiy Ban Nha, keo dai hon 13.000 km, da chgy thu thinh cdng. Diy dugc xem la cot mde mdi trong chien luge hien thuc hda "con dudng to lya" cua Bic Kinh, nhim thflc diy giao thuong, van tai va du Hch qudc td trdn mdt guy md mdi. "Con dudng to lua" tren bien bit diu tfl TuyIn Chiu (tinh Phue Kien) di qua eo bien Ma-lic-ca, keo tfl Cu-a-la Lim-pa den Cdn-ea-ta (An Do), Nai-rd-bi (Ke-ni-a), vflng Simg chau Phi, qua Bidn Dd vio Dia Trung Hai, dimg tai A-ten (Hy Lap) trudc khi gap "Con dudng to lya" trdn bg d Vo-ni-do (I-ta-li-a). Chiln luge "Vanh dai kinh td" hinh thanh mdt xu the ldn hgi nhip kinh td hai dai lyc A - Au, ttong khi dd "Con dudng to lya" tren biln se lidn thdng va lien kdt ba dai luc A, Au, Phi, cung cd dia vi ehu dao thuang mai va tgo "danh ehinh, ngdn thuan" va didu kidn thuin Igi de md rdng su hidn dien cua hai quan Tmng Qudc ra cic khu vye ngoii vung bidn kd can Trung Qudc vi hudng tdi ting cudng hien didn tai An Do Duong. "Nhit ddi nhit Id" Ii sy phat triln ndi bit cua tu duy chien luge toin ciu cua Chu tich nudc Trung Qudc Tip Can Binh. Thdi diem ttidn khai toan dien y tudng nay da duge Hdi nghi Cdng tic kinh te Trung uong cua Trung Qude ngiy 11-12-2014 xie dinh la bit diu tu nim 2015. Cd the thiy ro, "nhit ddi nhat Id" cua Trung Qudc (vin dung chu thuydt ngogi giao thai ed dgi chidn qudc) - hinh thinh lidn kit kinh tl theo kilu "hgp tung"
nhim nim quyln ehu ddng thuang mai toin
ciu de cgnh ttanh vdi cac nd luc cua My dang tgo ra lien kdt kinh tl theo kidu "lien hoanh" vdi hai khdi miu dich ty do dang eip cao la Hidp dinh doi tic kinh td chien luge xuydn Thii Binh Duong (TPP) vi Hidp dinh thuang mgi tu do xuyen Dgi Tiy Duong (TTIP), trong euge dua tranh chien luge, xic dinh sin choi thuang mai toan ciu cua the ky XXI. Tuy nhidn, nd luc eua My ttong vide hoin tit dim phin TPP cd thd ggp ttd ngai, mdt phin do chinh quyln cfla Tdng thdng B. 6-ba-ma khd van dgng dugc Qudc hdi My hidn do Ding Cgng hda kilm soit ei hai vien cho phep tdng thdng quyen dim phin nhanh (fast track). Nhat Bin, mdt ttong 12 nude thinh vidn tham gia thuang lugng TPP, dang dung fast track li mdt trong cic dieu kidn de hoin tit eude dim phan giua Nhit Ban vi My. Tdng thdng My B. 6-ba-ma chi biy td lge quan mdt cich thin ttgng vd "khi nang dgt duge hidp dinh li ldn hon mue 50-50"''" ttong vdng hai nim cam quydn cdn lai cua dng.
Cflng tgi Hdi nghi Thugng dinh APEC- 22, Bac Kinh cdn dd xuat thanh lip Khu v\re thuang mgi tu do chiu A - Thii Binh Duong (FTAAP) dl canh ti^nh vdi TPP. Tuy nhidn, tinh khi thi cfla mgt sieu du in do Trung Qude dung dau khdng de khie phuc bdi vin edn nhiing bat ddng ve Igi ich va su nghi ky chidn luge cua 21 thanh vidn APEC.
Nhung bien ehuydn sau sic ttong quan he qude tl nam 2014 bio hidu sy thay ddi cua cue didn thd gidi vi tgi chiu A, ehiu Au. "Bin ed ldn" duge gidi chiln luge gia My phic hga vao nhiing nim 90 cua thi ky XX din nay khdng chi cdn gidi hgn d dai luc A - Au ma dang dugc md rdng ra ba dai lye A - Au - Phi va bdn dgi duong lien thdng:
Thii Binh Duong, An Do Duong, Dai Tay Duong va Bie Bang Duong. Dudng nhu
(4) http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- offlce/2014/12/n/remarks-presidenl-meeting-export- council
S6 868 (thing 2 nam 2015) 103
The ffloi: Van de - Su kien t p p chi c p n g s o n chay dua vdi thdi gian, Trung Qudc dang xdc
tiln kl hoach xay dyng kenh dio Kra (Thii Lan) vi kenh dao Ni-ca-ra-goa. Mdt ehuong mdi ttong eudc phan ttanh chien luge Trung Qudc - My bit diu.
Cac ntfo'c tan dung mau thuan nud^c Id^n, tdi uu hda Iffi ich (juoc gia
Tuong quan lyc lugng tten the gidi, trudc hit li gifla cic tmng tam quyen luc nude ldn, vi tai khu vye chiu A - Thii Binh Duong dang cd nhiing ehuydn ddng manh me vi thay ddi siu sac. Cic eudc eg xit chidn luge gifla cac nudc ldn tic ddng sau rgng tdi nhidu mdi quan he qudc te d khu vye theo eac ehidu thugn, nghieh. Chung phin hda quan he gifla cic nude vdi cic tip hgp lyc lugng khdng thuin nhit, khdng phin tuyen ddi lap rd ret, mi didn ra da chieu, dan xen, ttong he thdng mgng ludi quan he qude td da tmng tam. Mgt sd nude cd the vua hgp tic vdi My vd an ninh, vfla thde day quan he vdi Trung Qudc vd kinh td.
Quan he giua cic trung tarn quyen lyc tuy cd nhiing cang thing mdi, nhung vin gift dugc khung dn dinh tuong ddi, ttanh ddi diu quin sy trye tidp vi duy tri hgp tac kinh te. Trung Qudc kien tri chu truong "diu ma khdng vd" vdi My, du cang thing den diu thi vin tim each ddi thogi vi diu tranh ttdn cic dien din ngoai giao. Trong khi giai quydt cic bit ddng va mau thuin ehinh tri - an ninh, cac ben deu cd ging khdng lam tdn hgi nghidm ttgng tdi cic mdi quan he kinh td song phuong. Vd chidn thuat, Trung Qudc vi My deu "choi ttd" nudc ddi, vfla tao ra, vfla tim cich giai tda eing thing, nhung khdng cd dot phi ttong hgp tic chien luge; se vfla diu ttanh, vua hgp tic tiiy vin dk, tuy luc, tu;y noi, va chua thd dinh hinh khudn khd G2 (gdm Trung Qudc vi My).
Lien kdt kinh te khu vuc da thinh mgt
"eudc choi" dia - chinh tri. Su kidn ndi bit la vide Trung Qude ky hai thda thugn hi?p dinh thuong mgi tu do (FTA) vdi Han Qudc
va 6-xttay-li-a - hai qude gia cd quan h?
ddng minh hi^p ude an ninh vdi My. Vdi Hin Qudc, vide ky kit FTA vdi Trung Qudc ngay 10-11-2014 chic chin se khien hang xe Toyota cua Nhgt Bin dang chidm ITnh thi trudng Trung Qudc se bi cgnh tranh gay gat, bdi khi dd 22,5% thud mi Chinh phfl Trung Qudc ip dit ddi vdi cic tip doin xe hoi ciia Hin Qudc, nhu Hyundai vi KIA se khdng edn hieu lyc. Dieu gay cho Td-ky-d khdng it Io ngai Ii FTA Trung Qudc - Hin Qudc co thd ting cudng quan he Bae Kinh - Xa-un, vi vd lau dii, cd thd hinh thinh trye My - Trung Qudc - Han Qudc va cd nguy eo lim Idng leo true My - Nhit Bin - Hin Qudc dang gap khdng it trye trie do cic tranh chip gifla Nhit Bin va Han Qudc ve ehu quydn bidn, dao va cic van dd Hch sfl dd lai. Co du ly do de phia Nhit Bin vi Trung Qudc dan xdp mgt cugc gap gifla Thu tudng Nhgt Ban Sin-dd A-be vdi Chu tich nude Trung Qudc Tap Can Binh ben Id Hdi ngiu Thugng dinh APEC-22 nhim ha nhiet cang thing gifla hai nude, mi muc tieu cudi cung se Ii hoin tit dam phin vd FTA ba ben Trung Qudc - Nhgt Ban - Hin Qudc - mdt kdt qua se nim ngoai su mong mudn cua M^, va, Nhit Bin eung khdng phai khdng mudn cd mgt kit qua nhu vay dd tao ddn bay nham dgt dugc cac thoa hidp ttong dam phan vdi My vd TPP.
Ngiy 17-11-2014, TrungQudcvaO-xfray-li;^
ky FTA nhan dip Chd tich nudc Trung Qudc Tip Can Binh tham 6-xtriy-h-a vi dy Hoi nghj G-20. Hiep dinh FTA giua Trung Qudc va 6-xttay-li-a ia mdt hidp dinh thuang mgi ty do cd mflc do rgng md vi toin didn nhit ma Trung Qudc ky kit vdi mdt qudc gia phat trien. Hiep dinh nay mang ddn nhieu Igi ieh eho ci hai nudc ttong cic ITnh vye khie nhau. Chinh quj^dn 6-xttay-li-a mudn phit ttidn quan he tdt dep vdi ci My va Trung Qude, dl My bio dim an ninh cho 6-xttiy-li-a va Trung Qudc cd thi giup 6-xtriy-li-a thinh vugng. Tuy nhidn, vi$c thyc hidn mdt ehinh sach dya vio MS' vl an
The gioi: v an de - bu kign Tpp <hi C^ng s6n ninh va dya vio Trung Qudc vl kinh tl sau
khi O-xttay-li-a vi Trung Qude hg but ky thda thuin thuang mai tu do cung cd eii khd cua nd. Trdn bao Diin ddn Ban mai Xit-ni ngiy 25-11-2014, Giao su H. Oai (Huge White) thudc Dai hgc Qudc gia 6-xtray-li-a di chi ra rang, ehinh sieh niy khdng dl thyc hidn neu khdng cd mgt tim nhin thiu dio;
"Thu tudng 6-xttiy-li-a Td-ny A-bdt (Tony Abbott) cho ring, dng da thiet lip dugc mgt sy can bang thin ttgng vi khdn kheo gifla My vi Tnmg Qudc, cho phep 6-xttiy-li-a duy tti mgt lien minh gin gui vdi nudc nay ttong khi md rdng thuong mgi vdi nudc kia.
Thyc ra, dng ta dao ddng mdt each bit lyc gifla hai eye cua quydn lyc khu vye, di vdi MS' hdm na)j va di vdi Trung Qudc ngiy mai mi khdng he ed mgt khii nidm rd ret nio vl cii dich phii dln"'^'.
Cd thd thiy hai die trung ndi bit ttong cac quan h? qude td d chau A - Thai Binh Duong thdi gian qua li: thic nhdt, tidp tye hgp tic, dam phan va diu ttanh; thic hai, cic nudc diu ra sue Igi dyng mau thuin gifla cac nudc ldn dd tdi uu hda Igi ieh qudc gia cua minh. Trudc sflc ep ngugc lai cua cac nudc ldn, cung nhu cfla du luin ttong nude, ddng thdi de phit huy cac ddn bay vi eon bai chidn luge cua nudc minh, cae nhi lanh dao va gidi hogeh dinh chinh sich qudc gia ed thd tim each thuc day quan he vdi nudc ldn nay tdi gidi hgn tdi da ttong khudn khd cho phep de khdng giy dd vd quan he vdi nudc ldn kia. Didu niy ddi hdi phai cd tam nhin dai han va thau dio, chu ddng va cd kha ning thuc hidn ngogi giao "di ttdn day" ddn tiinh dd ngh? thugt.
6-xtray-li-a khi ky FTA vdi Trung Qude, trudc sue ep cua M)', di tfl ehdi tham gia Ngin hang Diu tu ket eiu hg ting chiu A (AIIB) - mdt sing kiln quan ttgng cfla Trung Qudc. Mat khie, ngay cflng thdi gian k^ FTA vdi Trung Qudc, 6-xttiy-li-a da thda thugn thuc day hgp tic qude phdng vi an ninh hing hii vdi An Do, My vi Nhit Bin, tiln
hinh nhiing cudc tap ttan hii quin chung va chia se kinh nghidm hoat dgng cua hii quin ttdn bidn. Thda thuin nay cung md ra trien vgng tai khdi ddng "Ddi thoai an ninh tay tii"_(QSD) gifta My, Nhat Bin, 6-xttay-li-a vi An Do.
Ddng thdi, sy ehuyin ttgng tam ehiln luge eua cae nude ldn, hudng vl biln gdp phan lim cho chau A cd sy "thuc tinh mdi"
vl bidn. Ngay tii nam 1900, cyu Ngoai trudng My Gi. Giiy (John Jay) da tuydn bd:
"Dia Trung Hii li dgi duong eua qui khfl, Dai Tiy Duong li dai duong eua hidn tgi vi Thii Binh Duong li biln cua tuong lai".
Tmng Qudc li mdt dgng lue vi tic nhan eiia cudc chay dua hudng biln eua chiu A.
Thing 11-2012, Dai hgi Ding Cdng sin Tnmg Qudc xic dinh chu truong dua Trung Qudc ttd thinh eudng qudc bidn. Nudc nay da nd lyc tang cudng sue manh hii quin, md rdng inh hudng an ninh hing hii ra Thii Binh Duong, An Dd Duong vi dang thilt la^ su hidn dien tai cic vimg bidn khie cua thd gidi.
Thu tudng mdi eua An Dg N. Md-di de ra hgc thuydt vd bien, nhin manh tang cudng tilm lue hii quin vi thye hidn sy kit ndi an ninh, ngoai giao vi kinh tl giua An Do Duong vi Thii Binh Duong mi An Dg ddng vai ttd la hat nhan. Tong thdng mdi cfla In-dd-nd-xi-a Gi. Uy-dd-dd kdu ggi dan tde minh chim dut thdi ky "quay lung lai qui liu vdi cic dai duong, eo bidn vi vung vinh"
vi khdi phye lai quyln lyc biln. Hgc thuylt dau tien cua In-dd-nd-xi-a da dugc dng edng bd, nhan mgnh tin dung die trung cua In-dd-nd-xi-a vdi tu each la tine hing hii qudc te de lam Igi cho qude dan. Ciing vdi chiu A, bidn ci viy ggi Viet Nam thyc hien cugc hgi nhgp qudc td mdi vd biln, phin diu ttd thinh qudc gia mgnh vl biln ttong ky nguyen dgi duong cua thi ky XXI. •
(5) http://www.smh com.au/comment/abbott-clueless- on-how-to-handle-us-and-china-20141124-nsko3.html
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