KINH IE ViMO
Cai tien bieu gia dien sinh hoqt bqc thang:
can hai hoa cac muc tieu djnh gia trong boi canh mdi ve cung cdu cua nganh dien
BUI XUAN HOI
Wieu gia ban dien cho hg dan dung d nitdc ta la bieu gia bac thang vdi nguyen tac luy ke ' tang ve san litpng tiTc/ng dng vdi mdc gia tang din. Lan chinh sda gan nhat ca cau bieu gia la nam 2014 tdc la da 5 nam - khoang thdi gian dai de cac dieu kiSn cung dng va tieu dung thay doi din tdi viec cin phii dieu chinh cd cau biiu gia nay mdt each phu hdp. Bai viet diia ra^ nhiing phan tich danh gia bieu gia dien bac thang hien hanh dUa theo cac muc tieu dinh gia de nhan dang cac bd't cap ton tai, tCt dd xay diJngphuang an cii tien bieu gia dien sinh hoat dim bio hai hda cac muc tieu dinh gia trong bdi canh hien tai ve cung cau cua nganh dien Viit Nam.
Tiekhoa: gia dien, gia dien b&c thang, dieu hanh dinh gia cua Chinh phu.
1. Mot so' v a n d e l y t h u y e t v a thUc t i e n v e gia d i e n b a c t h a n g Ve phifOng di$n ly thuyd't, co nhieu bieu gia dien ap dung cho hg tieu dung cudi cung va vide liia chgn bieu gia phu thuoc vao rat nhi^u yeu to': mdc do p h a n dnh chi phi theo tinh chat va dac diem tieu dung; hi§u d n g gia de hiTdng dd'n sd dung hieu qua va tiet kiem dien; cdc vd'n de ve chinh sach xd hoi trong dinh gia dien va did'u kien ha tang ky t h u a t ciia n g a n h dien.
Vdi bieu gia didn b^c thang, day la bieu gid mot t h a n h p h a n cho dien n a n g tieu dung.
Sci dl dUdc ggi la bac t h a n g vi no dUde thiet kd' vdi tieu dung di^n dilOc chia r a cac mdc khac nhau, sap xep theo t r d t tU luy ke tang dan va tifOng d n g se la mdc gia ciing tang dan. Bieu gia bac t h a n g dKdc ap dung cho hg tieu dung sinh boat do t i n h chat, dac diem va Bxi dong n h a t ve tieu dung ciia khach hang nay dd la sii gia t a n g tieu dung deu chu yeu vao thoi diem cao di^m cua he thdng di§n.
Vdi dac trifng kinh te ky t h u a t cua nganh dien, siJt gia t a n g tieu dung vao thdi ky cao diem he thong phai huy dong cac n h a may chi phi cao hdn de dap d n g n h u c^u. Bieu gia dien sinh hoat bac t h a n g vdi logic dung cang
nhieu cang dat phan anh dac diem khdc bidt cua chi phi h6 tho'ng dien va dac diem tieu dung dien cua hg sinh boat dan dung. Mat khdc v6i viec xay dUng theo dang bac thang gia Ixiy tiS'n nen cac hg tieu diing it di^n se tra gia dien thd'p hdn, cac ho tieu dung cang nhieu thi mdc gia cdng cao. 6 phUdng dien nay bieu gia dien bac t h a n g con cho phep trien khai cac chinh sach xa hoi trong gia dien nhu nguyen ly cua phUdng phap dinh gia theo chi phi ngUdi sd dung: tdc la khach hang tieu dung nhieu dUdc hieu la hg co thu nhdp cao, vi the bo tra chi phi cao va ngiTdc lai. Vi the' day la mot loai big'u gia kha hieu qua v6i nganh dien khi dong thdi dat dudc cac muc tieu dinh gia khac nhau. Khong phai hien nhien bieu gia bac thang chi dp dung cho tieu dung sinh boat ma khong ap dung cho cac ho tieu dung dien khac.
Ve mat phifdng phap xay dUng, can cd vao cd ca'u tieu dung cua cdc hg sinh hoat va cd cau chi phi phat sinh de thiS't ke cac bdc thang san lUdng va bdc t h a n g gia phu hop nhdm dam bao bi§u gia phu hdp vdi tieu dung
Bui Xuan Hdi, POSTS., Tnrcmg dai hpc Bach khoa Ha N6i.
NghiSn aiu Kinh 14'sd' 1(500) - Ttiing 1/S020
cua cac t^ng Idp dan cif, dong thdi phan anh gan nha't chi phi cung iing va bai boa mot each tot nhat cac muc tieu dinh gia khac. Bieu gia sinh hoat bac thang la eac loai bieu gia mang tinh phd thong va difdc sii dung kha nhi^u trong qua trinh xay diing cd ca'u bieu gia dien d cac quoc gia nhU d Thai Lan, Malaixia, Han Quo'c, bay mot so' tieu bang ciia tJc. Tuy ciing mot nguyen ly bac thang nhifng each thiic xay diing 6 moi nUdc la khac nhau. Co bac thang san lifdng, bac thang cong suat, miic do chia bac thang ciing khac nhau tuy theo dac diem hg tieu dung ciing nhU chinh sach xa hgi cf tCfng nifdc.
0 Viet Nam, bieu gia bac thang da ap dung cho hg ti§u diing sinh hoat tit kha lau va qua nhieu l^n dieu chinh, bieu gia hien hanh quy dinh 6 bac thang (bang 1). Bieu gia vdn phat huy dUdc cdc bieu ilng gia, hifdng ngUdi tieu dung sii dung hieu qua va tiet kiem dien, dong thdi thUc thi chinh sach xa hgi doi vdi ngUdi sil dung dien c6 t h u nhdp thd'p dac biet la d bdc thang tieu diing <=50 kWh/thang.
Tuy vay bieu gia xay diing tii n a m 2014 da qua 5 nam ap dung nen cac thay doi, dieu chinh ca tii phia hg tieu diing va phia cung ling dien, nen can thie't phai thiic hien cdc nghien ciiu cai tien biSu gia phii hdp vdi boi canh cung cau dien cho giai doan hien nay va nhiing nam sap tdi.
BANG 1: Col c a u b i e u g i a d i e n s i n h b o a t bac t h a n g h i e n h a n h
I T
4.1
Nh6m dfli tuong khSch hang
Gia biin le dien sinh hoat Bic 1: <= 50 kWh Bac2:tir51de'nlOOkWh Bac 3 Tit 101 den 200 kWtl Bac4TCr201ilen300kWh Bac 5: Tit 301 den 400 kWh Bac 6: Tit 401 kWh Irci Itn
T/lesov6imi3c gi£ ban Id blnh quan duttc di^u chinh theo t h ^ quyIn (%)
92 95 110 138 154 159 Ngudn: Quyfe't dinh 28 cua Chinh phu.
P h a m VI nghien ciiu chi tdp t r u n g vao bieu gia dien sinh hoat bdc thang. Do do cdc nghien ciiu cai tien p h a i dam bao dieu kign can bang tai chinh cho EVN, tiic la cd ca'u lai bieu gia mot each phu hdp vdi bo'i canh hien tai va nhQng n a m tdi, nhUng dam bao miic doanh thu can thie't cho EVN n b u phifdng an gia dien hiSn h a n h . Cac danh gia dUdc thiic hien diia tren p h a n tich dinh lUdng vdi cac so' lieu sd ca'p thu thdp tii cac bo ti§u dung va so' lieu thii cd'p cung ca'p bdi EVN va cac ddn vi t h a n h vien. Ket qua cuoi ciing la phUdng an cai tien cd cd'u bieu gia, la can cii d§ cac nha q u a n ly ra quyet dinh dieu chinh cd cd'u bieu gid bdc t h a n g hien h a n h mot each phii hdp.
2. D a n h gia h i e n t r a n g b i e u gia sinh b o a t bac t h a n g
2.1. Phdn tich theo chi phi cung cap dien Theo dii lieu nghien ciiu phu tai ndm 2018 cua EVN, phu tai sinh hoat la phu tai xa'u nha't cua he thd'ng dien khi chenh lech Pmm va Pmax la 50,7%. Nhii vdy vi^c sii dung bieu gia bac t h a n g vdi nguyen tac diing cang nhieu dien cang phai t r a gia cao hdn van phu hdp vdi tieu dimg nay. P h a n tich bieu gia dien bac thang theo chi phi, nghien ciiu da tien h a n h xi( ly cac di3 lieu thii cd'p ve chi phi cao thd'p diem can cii theo gia biSn cua he tho'ng difdc xac dinh til gia bi§n cua thi trildng dien (SMP- tiic la gia cua ban chao ddt n h a t d tiing gid c I n huy dong de ddp iing phu tai sau khi sdp xep cdc ban chao gid theo thii tii gid tang dan tii thd'p den cao). Thi trildng dien cua Viet N a m dUdc thie't ke theo chi phi (cost based) nen ngoai SMP, cac nha may dien cdn dildc t h a n h todn them phan la gia cong sua't tiing gid (CAN) dUdc tinh todn trifdc hang nam theo ke hoach van h a n h thi trifdng dign. Do dd gid thi trudng dien toan phan diidc t h a n h todn (full market price) FMP = SMP + CAN.
Tren cd sd gia bien he tho'ng cua cac gid trong ngay ndm 2018, nghien ciiu thiic hiSn cdc tinh toan c^n thiet xu hUdng bien thien de phan tich cd ca'u bieu gid cao tha'p dig'm.
Vdi chi phi san xua't va mua dien chiem ty lg
Nghign cuv Kinh I§'s61(500) - ThAng 1/2020
Cai tien bleu gid dien
khac k h a ? 71,4% gia t h a n h binh quan, gia bien theo
thdi gian so vdi gia t h a n h binh q u a n lan lifdt la: 56,4% thd'p di^m, 74,19% binh thiidng va 81,87% cao diem. Chenh Igch min-max cua gia bien d cac k h u n g cao t h a p diem lan lUdt la: 4,07% cua 6 gid thap diem, 16,35% cua 13 gid binh thiidng va 2,02% cua 5 gid cao diem,
BANG 2: P h a n t i c h c<3 c a u b i e u g i a s i n h b o a t t h e o c h i p h i c u n g iing xa so ydi chenh l^ch ve gid giiia cac bac t h a n h hien hanh. Ngoai ra, chenh lech ve chi p h i bien he tho'ng giQa mite thd'p nha't va cao n h a t chi la 27,8%= 82,8%-55%, chenh lech nay cung khac xa so vdi khi chenh lech d bdc dau va bac cuoi bieu gia la 67% - 159% - 92% (bang 2).
% gi& bi£n cao th£p di^m so V()i gid thfUih binh qu&n dir6i6kV
56,64
74,19
8!,87
Ch&nh l£ch g i i bi£n min max tai cdc khung cao th^p di^m
(%)
4,07
16,35
2,09
san luctng theo c i c bac tiiang
(kWh)
Bac 1 50 Bac 2: 51-100 Bac 3: 101-200 Bac 4: 201-300 Bac 5. 301-400 Bac 6: >400
Miic gia bac
thang (% gia bin \k binh
quan) 92 95 110 138 154 159
Chenh 16ch giOa cac bac
(%)
3 15 28 16 5
aenh lech
bac 1 va cic
bac(%)
3 IS 46 62 67 Ngudn: Trung tam di^u hanh ht thfi'ng difin qu6'c gia, xir ly cua nhom nghien ciiu.
Nghien ciiu l a m ro hdn mile do c h u a phii hdp cua cd ca'u bieu gid bdc t h a n g vdi cd cbl phi cung ifng b d n g 2 p h a n tich eac hg d bac t h a n g d I u va bdc cuo'i. Vdi hg tieu dung <=50 k W h / t h a n g miic gia hien n a y dang la 92% gia b a n le b i n h q u a n . De thiic hiSn p h a n tich n a y n g h i e n ciiu k h a o s a t cdc ho tieu d u n g s i n h b o a t d 5 tong cong ty p h a n phdi, vdi so' lUdng m d u d a m bao do tin cay 95% dUdc xt( ly difdi d a n g tieu diing dien theo ngay dien h i n h v a chi tig't theo cdc k h u n g cao thd'p diem. Theo so' liSu khao sat, cac hg thupc tieu diing dudi 50 kWh/thang co cd cd'u t i e u d u n g la: 12,7%
tha'p diem, 38,9% b i n h t h u d n g va 4 8 , 5 % cao diem. Vdi gia t h a n h cung iing cao tha'p diem: 85,2% thd'p diem, 102,8% binh thiidng va 110,5% cao diem ( t r u n g b i n h cac k h u n g gid gid d b a n g 2 + 28,6% cac phi, td'n t h a t truyen t a i v a p h a n phoi d e n ca'p h a dp hg sinh boat m u a dien) t h i miic gia t h a n h binh q u d n c u n g ifng cho hg n d y la: 104,7%
K85,2%*12,7%+102,8%*38,9%+110,5*48,5%)
gid t h a n h birib q u a n . Vdi sii tUdng dong giiia gia t h a n h va gia b a n t h i mile gid b a n cho cac hg n a y d a n g t h a p hdn nhieu so vdi chi phi cung iing (92%). P h a n tich ho t r e n 400 k W h / t h a n g n g h i e n ciiu cung c6 ket qua tUdng tii: cd ca'u gid d cac bac t h a n g khdc n h i e u so vdi chi p h i hg gay r a cho he tho'ng dign.
2.2. Phan tich bieu gid trong quan he sdn liidng, doanh thu vd thu nhap cua ngiidi tieu ddng Vdi so' lieu dildc cung cd'p bdi EVN trong b a n g 3, cd tdi 72,5% so'ho sinh hoat cd san lUdng tieu diing difdi 200 k W h / t h a n g va 93% diidi 400 k W h / t h a n g . Nhiing bo tieu d u n g dudi 2 0 0 k W h / t h a n g dang t r a gid dien tha'p hdn gia t h a n h binh quan: tile Id 72,5% hg tUdng ifng vdi vdi 40-47% san liidng dien d a n g dUdc hudng mile gid tha'p hdn gia t h a n h binh qudn. Trong khi cac hg tieu diing til 300 k W h trd len (10% den 13% to'ng so hg sinh hoat) phai t r a mile gid cao hdn n h i e u (130,6% n a m 2018 so vdi gia
N0i§n ciiu Kinh tS's(S 1(500) - Thing 1/2020
t h a n h binh q u a n ) . H i e n tiidng bii cheo t r o n g khi hg c6 cung dac diim, t i n h chd't dang dien giiia cac hg t i e u dimg s i n h b o a t tieu dung dign.
BANG 3: Tong htfp c a c c d c a n s a n lifdng va c h i t i e u c u a h o t i e u d i i n g d i e n s i n h b o a t 2015-2018
Co cSu luy kff cic h6 tieu thu dien (%) S 6 h 6 d u 6 i 5 0 k W h
S61ucmgh6<100kWh So luong h 6 < 2 0 0 k W h So luong he <300 kWh SS luong ho <400 kWh
Gia dien binh quSn cho timg hd theo bac thang (d/kWh) Ducri 50 kWh
TCl51-IOOkWh Til 101-200 kWh Tit 201-300 kWh Tit 301-400 kWh Tit 401 Itcilen
Gia thanh dien thudng p h i n (d/kWh)
2015 19,9 42,6 78,0 90,0 94,6 1484.0 1500.4 1592.5 1749 8 1929.5 2252.0
2016 17.1 39,8 76,1 89,0 94,0 1484.0 1500.6 1593.2 1750.2 1929.5 2248.7 1665.35
2017 16,5 38,2 75,5 89,0 94,1 1484.0 1501.0 1593.3 1750.1 1929.2 2251.9 1667
2018 15,1 35,7 72,5 87,0 92,9 1549.0 1566.8 1662.0 1825.6 2013.2 2365.2 1723.3 Ngudn: Ban Kinh doanh, Ban T&i chinh EVN, t6ng hop bcri tac gia.
Nhu vay, doi vdi hd sinh boat khi tinh tdng the doanh t h u cd the dam bao de cdn bang tdi chinh cho boat dong san xud't kinh doanh dien nang nhUng cd ca'u bieu gia giUa cac bac thang khdng con phii hdp, khi so' dong cac hg dang tra tien dien thd'p hdn so vdi chi phi cung i(ng, vi vdi cd ca'u cao thd'p diem nhU tren va be so' p h u tai cua tUng nhdm hg tieu diing, thi chac chan gid thdnh cung Ung doi vdi cdc hg d bac san lUdng thd'p se Idn hdn gia t h a n h binh qudn.
Vg' phUdng dien dac diem hg sinh hoat, nghien cUu phdn tich mdi quan he giUa tieu dimg dign, chi tieu tien dien va thu nhdp eua hg thdng qua cac tinh toan ty Id chi tieu cho tieu dung dien theo t h u nhdp vdi nguyen tdc:
t h u n h a p cdng cao tieu dung dign cdng nhieu, rieng gid tri t h u n h a p la'y gia tri binh quan d mUc dau va mUc cuo'i moi bdc, bac cuoi cimg (>20 trigu dong) tam tinh cho 2 gia tri 25 trieu dong/hg vd 30 trieu dong/hg de phu hdp vdi 6 bdc thang gid bien nay (bang 4).
BANG 4: P h a n t i c h q u a n h e giijfa c h i t i e u t i e n d i e n v a t h u n h a p c u a h o gia d i n h nam 2018
Thu nhap
Ty le ti^n dien/thu nhap (%) Dudi 5 hieu ddng 3.000.000 1,35
Tit 5 hieu dftidUiSi'lO
trieu d6ng 7.500.000 1,61
TO 10 trieu dftiduiSii5 trieu d6ng 12.500.000
1,92
TO 15 hieu dehdul5i20 trieu dfing 17.500.000 2,53
Tren 20 Irieu ddng 25.000.000
2,77
30.000.000 5,67 Ngudn: Tong cue th6'ng k6, EVN, tfnh toan cua nh6m nghien cuTi.
Kg't qua tinh toan cho tba'y, cdc hg thu nhdp tha'p chi tra tU 1,5% thu n h a p cua hg cho chi tieu tien dien, trong khi cac hg c6 thu nhdp cao tra cao gd'p 4 lan (hg cd thu nhdp 30
trieu chi tra 5,57% t h u n h a p cho tieu dung dien). Su chenh lech Idn ve chi tieu cho tieu dung dien so vdi t h u nhdp ciing la diem bd't cap cua cd ca'u gia sinh hoat hien hanh, kly
NghiSn cOu Kinh tgs6l(500) - ThAng 1/2020
Cai tien bleu gid dien
mgi cdng dan deu binh d a n g trUdc cde san pham dich vu cd tinh chat cdng nhU dien nang, ddc biet la khi eac hd ngheo va hg chinh sach da cd sii ho trd ti^n dign mot each doc lap tu phia Nhd nUdc. NhU vay cd the thay, dn thie't phai cd ca'u lai bieu gia giUa cac bdc vd dieu chinh so' bdc doi vdi bieu gid sinh boat bac thang.
2.3. Tong hap ede ket qud phdn tich ddnh gid bieu gid dien sinh hoat bqc thang
Cd cd'u bieu gid sinh hoat trong Quyg't dinh 28 eua Chinh phu n a m 2014 da cd nhUng dieu chinh phii hdp hdn so vdi tnidc day (7 bac) va phdt huy tac dung ciia cac hieu Ung gid, dam bao cac muc tidu cd ban nhU: sU khac biet rd't Idn ve gid cac bdc dau va bdc euoi la tin hieu gia de hudng ngUdi tieu dung sii dung higu qua vd tiet kiem dien nang; bieu gia d cac bac dau tien rat tha'p cho phep thiic hien chinh sach xa hgi vdi hg ngheo, hg t h u nhdp thd'p;
dp dung gia dien tho'ng n h a t toan qud'c cho cdc khdch hang sii dung dien tai ndng thdn, mien mii, bign gidi, hai dao, k h u vUc chUa no'i ludi dien qudc gia, de on dinh cuoc sdng ciia ngUdi ddn, gdp phdn bao ve bien cUdng, chu quyen cua To quoc.
Tuy vdy, cac phan tich chi tiet dinh lUdng cho phep tong hdp cac ton tai chinh cua bieu gid dien sinh hoat bac t h a n g hien h a n h nhU sau: cd ca'u mUc gia giUa cac bac t h a n g khdng cdn phan a n h phii hdp nhUng sU thay ddi ve chi phi cung Ung, sU phan chia mUc gia ciing khdng cdn phu hdp mUc gia qua tha'p vdi cac ho cd tieu dung thd'p. Chinh sach xa hgi trong gia dien dang cd p h a n Uu dai rd't rd vdi cde hg tigu dung thd'p ben canh viec da cd hd trd dgc lap tii Chinh phu; tdn tai bii cheo giiia cac hd tieu dung it va tigu diing nhieu dien do cd ca'u gid bac t h a n g hien tai khong cdn phan a n h chinh xac chi phi va chUa dam bao cong bang giUa cac ho tigu diing dien; sd'lUdng bdc thang nhieu, qua chi tiet so vdi t h a y ddi ve san lUdng cua cac hd thuoc cac bac t h a n g hien hanh.
Can nghien ciiu cac phUdng dn r u t ggn de dam bao viec ap dung dUdc ddn gian va hidu
qua hdn. MUc chia san lUdng ciing can xem xet lai phu hdp hdn khi cd cau tieu dimg dd thay ddi.
3. D e xuat phifofng an cai tien bieu gia d i e n s i n h b o a t bac t h a n g
TU ket qua phan tich hien trang, bieu gid sinh boat bac thang se dUdc cai tien diia tren 5 can cU: (1) bien thien chi phi cao tha'p diem he thd'ng; (2) ddc di^m phu tai, mUc do tigu dung dien, cd ca'u t h u nhap, chi tigu cho tieu dung dien cua cac hg gia dinh vd sd' lUdng cac hd tieu t h u hien hdnh; (3) muc tieu sii dung hieu qua tie't kiem didn; (4) chinh sdeh xa hdi trong chinh sach gid didn; (5) dam bao doanh thu cho nganh dien so vdi phUdng an hien hanh. Dac biet so' lUdng bac hien nay (6 bac) la qua nhieu so vdi bie'n thidn chi phi vd phUc tap trong quan ly kinh doanh. Do vay trong phUdng an de" xud't dd nghign cUu 3 phUdng an rut ggn so' bdc: 5 bdc, 4 bdc vd 3 bdc. Can ddi giUa cdc muc tigu dinh gid, phUdng an tdi Uu hdn ca la phUdng an 5 bac thang. PhUdng dn nay dUdc nghien cUu tren cd sd ggp bac 1 va bac 2 hien hanh, dong thdi chia lai cdc mile san lUdng d cac bac cho phu hdp vdi dac digm tieu diing hg sinh boat hien nay. Ngoai ra, 5 bdc thang tieu dung dien tUdng Ung vdi phan loai 5 mUc thu n h a p ciia cac hg gia dinh theo phan loai cua Td'ng cue Thd'ng ke.
De phuc vu viec de xud't cai tie'n bieu gia ban sinh boat bdc thang, dUa tren cdc so' lieu thU cap trong qua khU cua 3 nam 2016-2018, ddng thdi phan tich dU bao cac nam hien tai va tUdng lai 2019-2021 theo cdc xu hUdng bien ddng cua qua khii de tinh todn. De tinh toan chi tiet, nghien ciiu da ke't hdp giula phUdng phap chi phi cdng tdi de' xac dinh chi phi cung Ung theo ca'p dien dp vd phUdng phap chi phi bien de cd cd cd'u cao thd'p di^m, tU dd tinh toan dUdc gia t h a n h cao thd'p diem d tUng cd'p dien dp. Ket qua tinh toan cho th^y, d cd'p didn dp ha ap (cd'p hd sinh boat sil dung) gia thdnh cao thd'p diem lan lUdt la: 87,05%
khung thd'p diem, 104,7% gid binh tbUdng vd 112,46% gid cao diem so vdi gia thanh dien thUdng phd'm binh quan.
NghiSn cHu Kinh t^s^ 1(500) • Thing 1/2020
3.1. Xay dung phuang dn gid dien sinh hoqt 5 bqc thang
Til cd cd'u cac hg tieu dimg theo 5 bdc thu nhdp va 6 bdc thang tieu dung didn hien hanh, nghien cUu xdy dUng pbUdng an gid dien sinh hoat 5 bdc. Thiic te', cac phan tich ve so' lieu kinh doanh cua 4 nam trong qua khU (2015- 2018) va 9 thdng dau nam 2019 tig'p tuc duy tri mot cd cd'u hg tieu dung gio'ng nhau: sd' lUdng hg Idn nha't tU 101 den 200 kWh/thang; cac ho tren 300 va tren 400 kWh cd ty trgng rd't it 6- 7%. Ve xu hudng bie'n tbign, sd' lUdng hd tieu dimg bac 1 vd bdc 2 giam lidn tuc qua cac nam;
BANG 5: Cd caiu tieu d u n g dien va cd cau
cac hd tigu dimg nhig'u didn tang d^n cho du sd' lUdng hg tang khdng nhieu nhUng san lUdng tieu dimg tang cao. Theo so'lidu nam 2019, cdc hd d bdc thang cudi cimg chi chiem 7,6% tong sd'lUdng hd sinh hoat, nhUng san lUdng dien hg tieu dung la 36% tong tigu dung sinh boat, ddng gdp khoang 42% doanh thu hg sinh boat.
Vdi cdc du lieu ndy, vide td cbUc lai 5 bac thang gia tUdng Ung vdi 5 bac thu nhdp, tUdng dong vg" cd ca'u cac ho theo san lUdng va thu nhdp, ddng thdi chia lai nhdm cac hg tieu dimg nhigu phu hdp vdi hinh chdp ve t h u nhdp chiing tdi cd cd cdii 5 bac mdi (bang 5).
thu nhap c a c h o s i n h b o a t - phifdng a n 5 bac Co ca'u 6 bac hien hanh
(kW/thang}_
S6' luong ho ti&u thu nam 2019{%
Miic thu nhap 5 bac Co cSu h6 gia dinh theo thu nhap (%) Co cS^u 5 b9c d^ xua't S6' luong h6 ti6u thu theo bac thang mcii {%)
50 14,29
< 5 trieu d6ng
7,20 51-100
18,70 Tit 5 tfieu
<10 trieu d6ng 16,30
<100kWh
-
2,99101-200 36,66 TillOden
<15 trieu dong 26,40 101-200 kW
36,66
201-300 15,41 T i t l 5 d « n
<20 trieu d6ng 30,90 201-400 kW
22,04
301-400 6,63
MOO 8,32 Tren 20 trieu d6ng
19,20 401-700 kW
6,06
>701 kWh 2,26 Ngudn: So lieu IhiJ ca^p EVN, s6' lifiu so cffp thu thap cac ho tieu diing dien va Tfing cue Thfi'ng kfi- 3.2. Tinh todn miic gid titng bqc thang
TU viec cd ca'u lai bdc thang, nghign cUu tinh todn mUc gia tai mdi bdc nhU sau: cdn cii theo cd ca'u phu tai cao thd'p diem (bang 6) tinh dUdc san lUdng cao thd'p diem cua tUng loai bd, tU dd phan bd san lUdng cua cdc hg theo nguyen tac tU thd'p diem de'n binh thudng de'n cao diem, tUdng Ung vdo tUng bac thang cung tUdng Ung tU thd'p den cao. Kg't hdp vdi cd ca'u gid t h a n h cao thap diem (87,05% khung thd'p diem, 104,7% gid binh thUdng vd 112,46% gid cao diem) tinh binh BANG 6: C a c cd c a u p h u tai - g i a c a o t h a p
qudn gia quy^n se r a mUc gia t h a n h d tUng bdc t h a n g cho tUng loai hd hd. DU lidu tinh toan d tren dUdc xay diing cho bd tieu diing dien hinh d tUng mUc san lUdng bac thang, do dd trdn cd sd so' lUdng hd tieu dung d tUng bdc thang, tinh toan binh quan gia quyen cac mUc gia d tUng bac cua 5 nhdm hg tieu diing, ta cd cd cd'u gid bac thang toan he thd'ng theo chi phi cung Ung. Theo dd, bac 1 la 97,83%, bdc 2 la 106,70%, bac 3 la 108,51%, bac 4 la 109,70% va bdc 5 la 112,50% so vdi mUc gia ban le binh quan toan hd thd'ng (bang 7).
d i e m t h e o c a c b a c t h a n g - phtfdng an 5 bac
Co cau 5 bac thang (kWh) Co ca'u phu tai
cao tha'p diem
(%)
Binh thucrtig Tha'p di^m Cao di^m
<100 41,366 14,245 44,389
101-200 43,350 18,459 38,192
201-400 43,390 21,165 35,444
401-700 42,906 23,991 33,103
>700 42,828 25,216 31,956 Ngudn: T6ng hop cua tac gia.
l>Jghi§n aiu Kinh lSsSl(500} - ThAng 1/2020
Zil tiin bleu g\i lien
BANG 7: Tinh
Co ciu hd ti£u diing Ty trong h6 tieu thu
theo tiing miic san iirong bac thang (%) Co c&a gi^
(%)
Miic gia tai cac bac thang cua
titnghd
(%)
Bac thang (kWh/lhing)
B a d Bac 2 Bac 3 Bac 4 Bac 5 Bac thang (kWh/thIng)
B a d Bac 2 B«c3 Bac 4 Bac 5
toan cd cau gia cho tiing bac thang -
H « < = 1 0 0 32,99
H 6 < = 1 0 0 105,7
H6til 101-200
36,66 54,70
H»ttt 101-200
98,0 110,7
Hatii 201^100
22,03 32,88 72,60
H«ti>
201-400 89,8 104,7 110,2
H«t£t 401-700
6,06 9,04 19,97 72,86 HO tit 401-700 87,1 92,3 104,7 110,7
phiitjng an 5 bac
H 6 > 7 0 0 2,26 3,37 7,44 27,14 100,00 H 6 > 7 0 0
87,1 87,1 102,3 107,0 112,5
T«ng 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 Co c& gia bac thang theo chi phf
97,83 106,27 108,51 109,70 112,50 Ngudn: Tfnh toan c
Tii ket qua nay, nghien cUu tid'n h d n h dd"
xud't cd cd'u bieu gia dien sinh boat bac t h a n g de cai tie'n cd ca'u hien h a n h . Nghien ciiu da xay diing cdc phUdng an vd d a n h gid tac ddng cua tUng phUdng an den ngUdi tieu dimg, EVN va ca nen kinh te so vdi phUdng an cd sd Id b i l u gid hidn hdnh. PhUdng a n I: gia b a n phan a n h kg't qua chi phi phat sinh (theo bang 7). PhUdng a n II: can dd'i cac muc tieu dinh gia bao gom phan a n h chi phi, sii dung hidu qua tiet kiem dien, can dd'i chinh sach xa hdi va can bang tai chinh. Kg't qua tinh toan cho tba'y, phUdng an II la phUdng an kha quan vd tao dUdc hieu Ung td't k h i tinh todn cac tac ddng tdi ca phia ngudi tieu dimg va xa hgi. Vdi ngUdi tieu dung, cac hg tieu dung it t r a gan hdn vdi chi phi hg gay ra cho he thd'ng dign. Chi tieu cho tign dien hd bdc 1 va bac 2 tang to'i da 2.797 dong/thang; hd bdc 3 va bdc 4 t a n g n h e tUdng Ung la 6.525 dong va 8.390 dong. Tif mile san lUdng tieu dung >
300 kWh trd di chi tidu cho tien dien giam:
ho bac 5 giam moi t h a n g giam: 25.170 dong;
hg bac 6 bien h a n h vdi mile 401 -700 kWh/thang giam 70.000 dong, mile 900 kWh/thang t h i chi tieu t i l n dien hdng thang se giam: -81.100 dong. San lUdng tieu dimg Idn hdn nUa, mile giam chi tigu tign se Idn hdn niia sc vdi phUdng a n cd sd.
Vdi ngdnh dien, phUdng an de xud't khdng gay tac ddng k h i dieu kien xdy diing phUdng an la doanh t h u tU ho sinh boat khdng dd'i.
Ngoai ra cac ddn vi kinh doanh dien se ddn gian hdn trong quan ly khi so'bdc r u t xud'ng cdn 5 bdc. Lien quan dg'n GPI, se khdng cd tdc ddng tieu ciic k h i td'ng chi tigu eho dien sinh boat khdng doi so vdi phUdng dn Quye't dinh 28. Cuo'i cung lien quan dg'n chinh sach hd trd tU phia Nhd nUdc, mUc hd trd hidn nay la so' tien tUdng dUdng vdi 30 kWh tinh theo mUc gid bdc 1. Tam tinh so' lieu lidn quan dg'n chinh sach hd trd dd'i vdi bg ngheo n h u sau: td'ng so' hd tigu dung <50 kWh/thang g a n 5 trieu hg, mUc san lUdng cua t h a n g cao diem nhd't nam 2019 la 114.352.247 kWh, tinh binh qudn mdi ho tieu dimg 26 kWh/thang. Xet trUdng hdp san lUdng dien md N h a nUdc hd trd Id 90%
td'ng s a n lUdng cac hg tieu diing <50 kWh/thang, chiing t a cd tong gid tri hd trd 1 t h a n g theo bieu gia b a n le thdng 3 n a m 2019 la t r e n 176,5 ty dong, gid tri hd trd theo phUdng an de xud't la 182,3 ty dong.
N h u vdy so vdi phUdng dn cua Quyg't dinh 28, ngan sach cho chinh sach hd trd hd nghed cua Chinh phu tang td'i da 5,7 ty dong/thang tile la chi sa'p xi khoang 70 ty dong/nam (bang 8).
NghiSn aiu Kinh t4s61(500) - ThAng 1/2020 9
Bang 8: Tac dong den chinh sach ho trd ho ngheo cua
SdhO
<=56 kWh 4.481.959
T6ng san luong tieu thij thang
cao nhat 114.352.247
SanlUDtlgcacbOtieD dt)ngcfmik<^30 tWh/liiang(90%) 102.917.022
SSti&itflidadilnb phu ho tio theo (}uy&dinh28 176.533.568.351
d e x u a t 5 b a c t h a n g SStiinlffldachMi
[ M h O t i o t b e o p b m g a n d £ x u &
182.286.629.898
Chenh leditOi da ttitk: bo tro cuaQiiDh[Au 5.753.061.547 Ngijdn:Tinh loan cua tac gia.
Tong hop lai, phUdng a n 5 bac de xua't dUdc xay diing trong viec can dd'i cac muc tieu dinh gia. Ket qua cua danh gia tac ddng cho thay tU ngudi tieu dung, de'n EVN, Chinh phu va ndn kinh te Id rd't hdi hda: bieu gia phan dnh gan hdn chi phi cung Ung, dam bao cdng bdng bdn giiia cac hg tieu diing. Bieu gid dam bao doanh t h u nganh dien tU bg tieu dung sinh hoat va khong gay tac dong tieu ciic de'n ddi sd'ng xa hoi, gia tang khdng dang ke ngan sach hd trd eho ngudi ngheo lien quan de'n tieu diing dien. PhUdng an de" xuat cai tie'n cua nghien cUu dUdc trinh bay trong bang 9.
BANG 9: Cd c a u g i a b a n le d i e n s i n h b o a t b a c t h a n g - d e x u a t 5 b a c I T
4.
Nb6m dSi tuong kh&cb Gil b i n l& difin cho
sinh hoat BachtiiO-lOOkWh Bac 2; tii 101-200 kWh Bac3:tii201-M)0kWh Bac 4:10401-700 kWh Bac5:Tii701kWhtr6ien
Ty le so v ^ mDc giA bdn le binh qain duDc di&i cfainh theo tfaim t^hi
95 113 137 151 156 Nguon: De xuit cua nghien ciiu 4. K e t l u a n
Nghign cGu cai tie'n cd cau bieu gid dien sinh boat bac thang Men hanh phii hdp hdn vdi hien trang he thd'ng dien Vidt Nam, nhdm phan a n h mot each thich hdp nhd't chi pbi cung Ung dien ciing nbu cdc muc tigu dinh gia khdc cho giai doan bien nay va trong nhiing nam tdi. Cdc phan tich danh gid hien trang eho thay, cd cau bieu gid bac thang hien hanh khdng cdn phu hdp vdi nhUng thay ddi ve cung Ung va tieu dung dien nang cho giai doan hien nay, dac biet la d phUdng dien phan a n h chi phi cung ling dien. TU dd nghien cUu da xay
diing cac can cfl tinh toan va de xua't cac phUdng dn cai tien bi^u gia sirib hoat bac thang. Bang viec n i t ggn cac bdc thang, can cU theo chi phi phat sinh va dac diem ve t h u nhap cua cac hd gia dinh, phUdng an 5 bac thang dugc lua chgn. Bieu gia 5 bac mdi difttc de' xuSit la chi tig't, cu the, cd can cii ro rang, co xem xet ve kha nang dieu chinh trong cac nam tdi de dam bao tinh hieu lUc ciia bieu gia de xudi, ddng thdi la pbUdng an hdp ly nhat tren cd sd danh gia tac ddng den cac chu the: i^udi ban dien, eac hd tieu diing, chinh sach ho trd tieu diing dien vdi hd ngheo, cac tac dong den CPI hay phat trien kinh teJ.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Aiining Zhou (2012), Comparative Analysis and Policy Study on Residential Electricity ESlls in Selected ADB Member Countries, ADB ^istainable Dsve/ofmienl
Working f^per Series, Asian Development Bank.
2. Bui Xuan H6i (2008), Ly Ihuy^gia nang li^g, Nxb Thong ke.
3. Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (2017), Power Industry and Power ftice in the Riilippines.
4. ElA (2017), Country Analysis Brief: Malaysia.
5. EIA (2018), Country analysis Brief: South Korea.
6. He tho'ng diJ lieu so cSp qua khao sat ho tieu dung vi do lieu thii ca'p thu thap tit EVN v^ cic don « t h a n h vifin.
7. International Energy Cwisultants (2016), RegionaVGlobal Cranparison of Retail.
8. Khamphone Nanthavong (2015), Electricity pricing in the residential sector of Lao FDR.
9. Munasinghe M. (2009), Electric power pricing pohcy. Staff working paper; no. SWp 340. Washington, D.C : The Worid Bank.
lO.Percebois J. (1999), L'apport de la theorie econwnique aux debats energetiques, in Revue de I'Ertergie N=509, pp. 473488.
11. Quy^E dinh s6 28/2014/(3D-TTg ngay 07-4-2014 ciia Thu tu6ng chinh phu: Quy dinh v^ co c i i ^ a ban le d i ^ .
Ngay nhan bai:
Ngay duy^t dang:
13-11-2019 16-12-2019
10 Ngh/en cuu KJnft t^s61(500) - ThAng 1/2020
