^ N^Oal ctiu - ling img
V s y CAN THIET VA CO S d KHOA HQC X A Y DVTVG CO S d DC U f u IVHAY CAM M 6 I TRLTCJNG T 6 N G HOP TOAN QUOC
TS. NGUYEN DU KHANG Cue Viin tham quoc gia Tom tat:
Tie ddng manh mi cCia thien tai vi biin doi toan ciu cCing nhung hi luy cua qui trinh phit triin kinh te xa hdi di gay nen cic hiem hga mdi trudng de dga doi sdng xi hdi, tinh mgng vi tii san cua con ngwdi. Trong tinh hinh dd, nhu cau thdng tin vi trgng thai mdi trwdng la rat cin thiit de cung cip ca sd khoa hgc, hd trg cdng tic quin /y vi phdng trinh, ngin ngCfa vi glim thieu tie ddng xiu cua cic hiim hga mdi trwdng. Bi giai quyet nhiJng vin di dd, cht si nhgy cam mdi triKrng vi chi so nhgy cam mdi trwdng ting hgp la ca sa di xiy dung hg thong ban di nhay cam mdi tnfdng cac tyliphO hop vdi timg dia phirang bing cdng nghg vien thim vi hg thong thdng tin dig ly GIS. Tmng dd cdng nghg viin thim dwac ip dung de xiy dwng bi ban do sinh thii ung dung tir tw liiu inh viin tham. Cdng nghi hi thong thdng tin dia ly (GIS) nhim xiy dwng cic bd bin di vi ca sd dir ligu chuan ve mdi trwdng vdi sw tham gia cua cic chuyin gia mdi trwdng, ap dung phwang phip cay phan tich h$ thing AHP. Thanh qua thu dwac la oa sa dir ligu nhay cim mdi trudng ting hgp loan quic se gdp phin phgc vg cdng tic nhi nwdc ve quan ly mdi trwdng, giup phdng trinh, ngin ngira vi giim thieu tic ddng xiu cue cic hiem hga mdi trwdng, dim bio phit triin kinh ti, xi hdi vi mdi trwdng theo hwdng bin vimg han trong twang lai.
1. Sipcan thiet
IVIyc dich cua viec xay dung co sd du' lipu nhay cam mdi trudng toan qu6c la phuc vu phat trien ben vOng kinh t4, xa hdi vi mfii trudng cua nudc ta. Hipn nay, van de phat trien ben vu'ng da trd thanh kim chi nam cho nhi^u qufic gia khfing phan bipt miic dp phat trien.
Phat triln b i n vu'ng c6 t h l hiiu \i "Cai thien chat lup'ng song cua ccn ngudi trong khi dang spng trong pham vi kha nang cung d p cua cac he sinh thai".
Ben cgnh tac dpng mgnh m§ cOa thien tai vi biln d l i khi hgu loan cau, qua trinh phat trien kinh t l xa hOi k6o theo nhilu he luy d i n mfii tru'dng sinh thcii. Ph§i k l d i n mpt so hiem hpg nhu: DOng dit; Trup't Id d^t di, xdi mdn; Lu luL lu quet; Han han, thilu nudc; 6 nhilm moi trudng nudc; 0 nhilm mfii trudng dit; 6 nhilm khfing khi; 0 nhilm cfing nghidp, hoa chit; TrSn dau, Nguy ca vd dfi, ke, dip nudc; Chat pha rCrng, chciy rung; v.v.
D l cd CO sd khoa hpc giup cho cfing tacquSn ly nh4 nudc v l phdng trSnh, ngan ngua va giim thieu nhO'ng tac dpng x l u ciJa nhO'ng hilm hog tren d i n ddi sing xa hpi, tinh mang va tdi san cua cpn ngudi, cung nhu bao dam cho vific phat triln kinh t l , xa hfii va moi trudng b i n vOng, can ph^i co nhOng thong tin v l trgng thai mfii trudng va diln djch chung thanh dgng de hllu d l thfing tin cho cac c i p lanh dgo xem xfit ra quylt djnh. Chi so nhgy cam mfii trudng (sensitivity index) doi vdi mot hop phan mfii trudng va Chi so nhgy cSm mfii trudng tong hpp (Synthesis sensitivity Index) d l i vdi dong thdi nhieu hpp phan mfii trudng tSc dOng den cac yeu to bj anh hudng, la ca sd thfing tin de giai quylt nhung van de neu tren.
Co sd dCp lieu nhgy cdm mfii trudng tong hpp toan quoc dupc xay dyng trfin co sd
TAP CHl KHOA HOC 0 0 DAC VA B A N D 6 S 6 23-3/2015
Nghien cihi - ling du^^-m^^
ehuin hod he thong ban dfi nhay cam mfii trudng vdi eac ty Ig dugc Wiilt ke phu hgp voi tung vung, tung khu vijc hodc tung dja phuang.
H$ tiling ban do nhgy cam moi trudng dugc xay dgng ti-dn ea sd bp ban d l nen chu- yen d l (M nfii dung la cac dan vj sinh thai cua cac d l i tugng ti/ nhidn vd nhan tgo dugc bilu thj bdng eac gam mdu, dga tren cde thong tin thufic tfnh t h l hign cdc mue cua cht so nhgy cam moi trudng. Thfing thudng cde muc nhay cam moi trudng duge chi thanh 05 mue: nhgy cam rat thap, nhay cam thip, nhgy cam trung binh, nhgy cam cao vd nhgy cdm rat cao.
Xuat phdt t u nhu d u thgc te vd kha nang giai quylt mpt each khoa hpc nhung v l n d l buc xdc v l mfii trudng hien nay, vide xay dgng mfit ea sd dd li^u nhgy cdm mfii tiudng t i n g hgp eho todn quoc la can thilt.
2. Giai phap ky thuat va cong nghe
Gidi phdp ky thudt va eong nghg chu y l u 6e viec xay dgng ca sd du ligu nhgy cdm mfii tiifdng ting hgp la eong nghe vidn thdm vd he thong thfing tin dja 1;^ (GIS).
2.1. Cong nghg vien tham
Duge dp dyng d l xdy dgng cac bp ban do sinh thdi bdng tu ligu anh vien thdm, gom cong tac npi nghiep va ngogi nghigp.
2.1.1. Cdng tic ndi nghiep:
Thgc hign theo theo quy trinh cfing nghg thanh lgp ban do chuyen de blng cfing nghg vien tham vdi npi dung dugc phan thanh cdc nhfim, cac Idp vd cdc doi tugng dpc lgp (cdc dan vj ding nhit ve nhgy cam mfii trudng) thufic ede Idp. Cdc doi tugng cfi t h l Id khoanh vi, dgng dudng hoae dang dilm.
Dii vdi ndi dung ban do chuyen de sinh thai cd thi phin toai nhw sau: (Xem bing) Dga vdo ddc dilm khu vgc Win khai, cfi t h l lugc bo hoae bo sung thdm s l nhfim vd so Idp sinh thai cua cac npi dung trdn.
2.1.2. Cdng tie ngoai nghi$p:
Bao gom dieu ve bo sung ngogi nghiep trong quy trinh cong nghg thdnh l^p ban do ehuyen d l bdng cfing nghe vidn thdm, k i t hgp eong tde thu thgp thong tin, t u Ii$u lidn quan d i n mfii trudng.
Thu thgp thfing tin, h j lieu bao gfim xdc djnh eac y l u to mfii trudng thdnh phln da xdy ra trong qua khu, dang xdy ra tnang hien tgi, hoae co t h l xay ra trong tuang Iai dnh hudng d i n cdc hg sinh thdi.
Cae y l u t l mfii trudng thdnh phdn bao gom trong ca ba ITnh vge ehinh cua t g nhidn Id mfii trudng khong khf, mfii trudng d i t va moi trudng nud'c, ngodi ra, con cac hiem hog mfii trudng khdc do thien tai, bien doi khi hgu va fi nhilm moi trudng do eon ngudi gay ra dt\o cdc he sinh thai.
2.2. Ap dung cong nghe he thong thong tin dja ly (GIS)
Nham xdy dgng cdc bp ban dfi va ea sd d u lieu ehuan ve nhgy cam mfii trudng. 6" ddy phdt huy vai tro cua cac ehuyen gia ve mfii tiudng vd txi cde kiln thuc tong hgp khde.
^ TAP CHf KHOA HOC DO DAC vA B A N B6 S6 23-3/2015
Nghien cOu - ting dung
A
/
1 2 3 4 II 5 6 7///
89 10 11 IV 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 B V 23 24 25 26
" 27 W 28 29 30 31 32 VII 33 34 35 36
Cdc h^ sinh thai tren moi trirvng dat Nhom sinh thai &6ng cay hang nam L6p chuyen trong lua
Trong lua - m^u Tr6ng rau m i u Trong cay hSng nam khic Nh6m sinh thai trong cay lau nim Ldp cay cong nghidp
Trong cSy an qua Trong cay I3u nam khic Nhom sinh thii rOvtg Ldp rCi-ng tv nhifin RiFng sin xuat Khu b i o ton dpng, thi,Fc v|t Cic logi rCrng khic Nhom sinh thii nhin t$o Ldp d i t 6 n6ng thon D i t a do thi
Ling chil tap trung, ben ca B i t lim mu6i
B i t tnj sd Cff quan, cdng trinh si^ nghigp D i t khu cong nghidp
D i t cho hogt aOng khoing sin D^t giao thdng, s i n bay, b4n cang D i t thiJy li?i
D i t cong trinh nang lu'gng H$ sinh thii nhin tgo khac C i c h^ sinh thai tren moi tru«>ng nut^c Nhom sinh thai m$t nird'c Ldp mgt nu'de bi4n Ldp mit nu'de bi^n Mgt nudc chuyen dung D i m , p h i ven bien H? smh thil mgt nu'de khic Nhdm sinh thai ngap man Ldp n>ng ngip mgn Bai san hd
Bai cdi, cd nu-dc. ciy byi ngip mgn Bai sd, ron, rat, nhuyen the He sinh thil nggp mgn khac Nhdm sinh thii nuoi trdng thuy' san Ldp nudi trdng thuy san nu'de ip, mgn Ldp nufii trong thuy s i n nu'de Ip, mgn Nudi thuy sin Idng bk
Nudi trong thuy sin khic
TAP CHl KHOA HOC 0 0 DAC VA BAN D 6 S6 23-3/2015
Ngliien ctru ~ Vbig dttng
Su dyng phuang phdp cay phan tfch h§ thing (AHP), co sa do nhu htnh 1.
Ct day, m la so hgp phan mfii tnfdng dua vao danh gia, Mj la hgp phan moi tiifdng thu j 0=1 •*• m). Cdc hgp phan mfii tnwng <xt the Id: Dpng dat; Tnjgt Id dat; LQ lgt, lu qudt; Han hdn, thilu nudc; C nhilm mfii tardng nude; 0 nhilm mfii t r u i n g d i t ; 0 nhiem khong khf;
6 nhilm cong nghiep, hod chat; 6 nhilm do khai thac, che bien khodng sdn; Tran d i u ; Nude biln ddng; Nguy eg vd dd, ke, dap nudc; Chgt phd rijng, chay rdng; v.v.
n Id s l nhfim sinh thai, N| la nhfim sinh thai thu i (1=1 * n). Vf du: N-j la nhfim sinh thai edy trong hdng nam.
Is(i) la so Idp sinh thai trong nhom sinh thdi Nj (i=1 - n), L|j la Idp sinh thai thu I (1=1 •*•
ls(i)) trong nhfim sinh thai Nj. Vi dy: L-ti la ldp stnh thai vung chuyen trong Ida trong nhfim sinh thai cay ti"ong hdng ndm.
ks(l,i) Id s l dan vj sinh thdi trong Idp sinh thdi L|j (1=1 -s- ls(i)) eua nhfim sinh thai N, (i=1
•5- n), Ky, (k=1 + ks(l,i)) la dan vj sinh thdi thu k trong Idp sinh thdi l^j eda nhom sinh thdi Nj.
Vi dy: K•^•^•^ Id dan vj thd nhat trong Idp sinh thai vung chuyen trong lua eua nhom sinh thdi cay trong hdng ndm.
K i t qua thgc hien AHP cd kilm ehung bdng ehi so nhat qudn nglu nhien, thu dugc:
Trpng so Wjj cda nhfim sinh thai Nj dudi tae dpng eda hgp phln mfii trudng Mi; Trpng s l W|jj cda Idp sinh thai Lj, trong nhfim sinh thdi Nj dudi tde dfing c^a hgp phln mfii tiirdng M;
va tipng s l w^jj cCia dan vj sinh thdi K|^|j thufic ldp sinh thai L|j trong nhfim sinh thai Nj dudi
Cac hgp phdn moi trudng
Cac nhom sinh thai
Cac lop sinh thai
Cac donvi sinh thai
Htnh 1: Phuxmg phap cay phin tieh h$ thong (AHP)
TAP CHl KHOA HOC DO DAC VA B A N D 6 S(5 23-3/2015
^ V f^^n eAu - ling d^ng
tac dpng cua hgp phan mfii trudng Mj.
Tich hgp cde s l li$u, xae djnh chi so nhgy cam mol tm'dng SImij eiJa cdc dan vj sinh thdi dudi tdc dfing tung hgp phln mfii trudng theo cong thde:
SIkiij = Skiij X hi (1) trong dfi: Skuj = Wjj x Wjjj x ^Vk|,j (2)
h-i Id hd so, Iga chpn sao cho max(SI|(|jj) cfi gid trj bang 9.
Cht s l nhay cam mfii trudng ting hgp cda cde dan vj sinh thai dudi tde dpng d i n g thdi cua cde hgp phan mfii trudng xac djnh theo efing thuc:
SSIk,i = SSkiiXh2 (3) trong dfi:
h2 Id hg so, Iga chpn sao cho max(SSIiH() cfi gid tn blng 9.
Thang phdn d p chi s l nhgy cam mfii trudng va nhgy cam mfii trudng tong hgp cda ede dan vj sinh thdi dugc chia thanh 5 cap:
d p 1:0 SSI {hoac SSI) < 1:
Nhgy cam rat thip Cap 2: 1 £ SI (hoae SSI) < 3:
Nhgy cdm thap
Cap 3: 3 fi SI (hoac SSI) < 5:
Nhay cdm trung binh d p 4: 5 fi SI (hogc SSI) < 7:
Nhgy cam eao
d p 5; 7 fi SI (hogc SSI) < 9:
Nhay cam r i t cao.
Nhgp gia trj ehi s l nhay cdm ede mfii trudng tong hgp cda cdc dan vj sinh thdi vdo bdn d l sinh thdi ung dyng. Bieu thj cac gam mau (theo muc dfi nhay cam mfii trudng) va bien tgp ban do ehuydn d l . Chuin hod hd thing bdn dfi chuyen de theo quy djnh hien hdnh, san phim la mpt ea sd du ligu nhgy cam moi trudng t i n g hgp.
3. Higu qua kinh te - xa hoi va moi trudng
Cg sd du lieu nhgy cam mfii tnj'dng tong hgp, k l ed nhgy cdm cua tung hgp phln mfii tmdng, cfi nhung chuc nang ea bdn nhu:
Higu qua thfing tin: Cho mfit cai nhin tong quan v l mfii trudng, giam s l lugng eac do ludng vd cde thfing s l d l trinh bdy hien trgng mfii trudng;
g TAP CHl KHOA HOC DO DAC VA BAN D6 S6 23-3/2015