DINH HCldNQ - TRIEN VQNG
Cd cau lai he thong tin dung
Can doi m6i tir duy lam chmh sach
TSKH. NOaVEN TH( Hlfen
Chinh sach tin dyng dang gSy kh6 cho doanh nghidp. Nguygn nhSn tiir phia n&o thi ch^c c6n nhi£u b i n cai, nhiAig di£u quan trgng nh^t hi$n nay lihdng phai 1^ 68 iSi vk quy trdeh nhi^m, mk chinh Ik cdn phii s^m tim giai plijp
dinh hUdng Chinh sdch tin d.ng th«i gian tdi sao cho hi,u q u i . ^
Tff nhu'ng nd l^c tim gidi phdp hd tr^ doanh nghidp
Giffa tiidng 9/2012. qud bffc xuc trUdc khd khin cda doanh nghidp do thieu vdn phdi hoat dgng cam ehffng. hpn hai ttim doanh nghidp phdi gidi the hoic tam ngffng boat dpng. lanh dao thinh phd Di Ndng (dng Nguyen Bd Thanh) d i tuydn bd' ddng tff 3.000 den 5.000 ty ddng vdn cda Thinh phd'dl bdo lanh cho doanh nghidp vay ngin hing, mOt tuydn bd'chffa tffng ed tiln Id vd gdy " s i c " cho nhilu chuydn gia kinh td'.
T j f yifi bill \iO'l n;i\ kJiniii: riizlii L'l nun- LIK-II ci'ui
C j n ph^i s3ni
n giai phdp djnh hudng chinh sdch lin dung th&i gian lOi sun cho hi^u qu.i
lanh dao thinh p h i Dd N^ng se dat dffctc vl bdo lanh Id mOt nghidp vu tfn dung phdi do cd quan chuydn ttdch thffc hi|n, nhihig hoin toin thdng cam vdi quylt djnh cua ong Thanh. Bdi vi, vi|c bdo linh cho doanh nghi|p. die biet Id doanh nghiOp nhd vi vffa (DNNVV), bp phgn doanh nghidp ning dpng vi tao ra phin Idn cdng i n v i | c ldm cho xa hOi d nhffog nffdc cd trinh dO phdt ttiln tiilp nhff Vidi Nam li mOl phdn quan trpng cua chinh sdch tii chfnh vi li mOt cdng cu hffu hiOu cda chinh sdch tiln te. Quylt dinh so 193/200i/QD-TTg ngdy 20/12/2001 cda Thd IUdng Chinh phd vl thinh Up Quy bdo lanh tin dyng cho DNNVV thiJc hi|n Nghi dinh s i 90/2001/ND-CP ngdy 23/ll/20()l ttd giup phdt triln DNNW ra ddi ngay khi Lu$t Doanh nghidp (nini 2000) cd h i | u Iffc, da tao khung phdp
\^ gidp cho loai hinh doanh nghidp ndy tid'p cdn ngudn v^n tin dung. NhU vdy, ddng le sd tiln 3.000 - 5.000 tj ding, m i tiiinh pho Dd NSng dinh bdo Idnh cho doanh nghidp se dffdc ehuyin vio Quy Bdo lanh tin dyng cho DNNW cda Thdnh p h i . NhUhg vide dd di khong xdy ra, cd le vi Thdnh p h i chUa l|p ( ^ niy, ho$c Quy dffpc l | p ra m O t c d c h t ^ tiiffc, chffa v4n hdnh ttdn tiiffc t l ( t j g b i i cdnh chung. hdu hit cdc dia phirong chua tha'y sU cdn tiiilt cda Quy Bdo lanh tin dung cho DNNVV ndn chUi ddnh ngdn sdch cho Quy, tiidm chi chUa;^
dinh c h l ndy). ™ Chua d i n mffc phdi can tiiilp c i i ^
nhuBd Ndng, nhung linh dao tiiinh 1*6
30
KinhleviDlfM"Ho Chi Minh cung da mdt sd ldn chdp ndi doanh nghigp v i ngin hdng nham thdc day vide cd'p tin dung eho doanh nghiep. NhU viy. dd thay sff bffc bdch cda vide thffc hien ehd trffdng bdo lanh tin dung eho DNNVV, mOt chd trUdng ddng dan da khdng dUde triln khai nghidm tuc hdn hai chuc nSm qua, mOt cdng cu bi ling qudn.
Chdng nhd day khdng phdi Id cau chuyen ddng bdn ttong tdi ci'u ttdc he thd'ng tin dung. Trong ttUdng hpp cda Cdng ty Co phdn Thdy sdn Binh An (Bianfishco), ndu cd dinh che' bdo lanh tfn dung thi khdng nhffng cd the rdt ngdn dUde qud trinh gidi quyd't cdng nd cda cdng ty, ma edn ttdnh dUpc nhffng khui't tat, mi du lugn cho rdng cd hi|n tUpng thdu tdm doanh nghidp.
Den sii cdn thilt phdi doi mdi tuduy
Mdt van d l quan ttgng can dffdc bdn dd'n do li vai ttd cda Ngan hdng Nhi nUdc ttong he thd'ng tin dung. Vdi dia vi Id cd quan thffc thi ehinh sdch tiln td vi vdi do nhay cao cua cdc cdng cu cda chinh sach tiln Id, quyet dinh cda Ngan hdng Nhd nUdc ed dnh hUdng ra't Idn den ffng xff cda he thong ngin hing thffdng mai vi thi ttUdng tiln Id ndi chung.
Gdn ddy nh^t, ttong nhffng ngiy ddu thdng 9, sau khi Thdng tff 21/2012/TT- NHNN cda Ngin hing Nhi nffdc siet hoat dOng cho vay ttdn thi trffdng lien nginhingcd hieu Iffc tff ngdy 01/9/2012.
edc ngan hing thUdng mai da phdi ddy manh huy ddng vd'n ttdn thi trUdng dan cU. Hd qua la giao dich ttdn thi trUdng hdn ngan hang gidm manh (doanh s i giao dieh ttdn thi trUdng Hen ngan hdng ttong tudn ddu tidn sau khi Thdng tff 21 e6 hidu lUe gidm 58% so vdi tudn trUdc dd). Ddng tiidi lai suat huy dOng cung nhfch Idn 1 - 1,5% (d^i vdi cdc ky han ttdn 12 tiling).
Trong dieu tilt kinh t l vT md, vai ttd cda Ngdn hing Nhi nffdc t h l hien rd nhd't. Trong nhffng n i m 70 - 80 cda till ky mrdc, khi nen kinh t l nffdc nhi phdi dii mat vdi lam phdt 2 - 3 con s i , nhieu td chffc tai ehinh v i chuydn gia kinh te nUdc ngoii da khuyen Vidt Nam ndn chgn rdivCng tiling d i e ngan hing ttung Udng bilt "ndi khdng" vdi lam phdt.
Gdn day nhit, tff ddu quj' II nim 2012, ttong luc nhilu y kiln dang lo
kinh tl" gidm phdt, tham chf li thieu phdt sau hai thdng gid ting tiia'p (CPI thdng 4 tdng 0,05%, thdng 5 tang 0,18%) vi hai thdng am (-) (CPI thdng 6 -0,26%, thdng 7 -0,29%) thi chi sd gid dOt ngOt tdng tdi 0,63% trong tiidng 8 vi 2.2% trong tiidng 9. Nhieu f kien nhan manh dd'n ylu td ting gid xdng ddu. Nhffng thdt ra, gid thi trffdng thdng 8, thdng 9 ting cao hdn dff dodn eua nhieu ehuydn gia cdn do nhffng nguydn nhdn tff phfa
"cung" tiln.
Tai Dien ddn Ddu tUvd Tdi chinh Ngin hing do Tap ehf Kinh t l vd Du bdo ehd iri id chffc ngiy 28/8/20i 2 tai Hd NOi, chuydn gia kinh t l Vu Dinh Anh Iffu y ve nhffng dOng thdi ndi ldng tin dung "ed vl lai sua't lan quy md vi linh vffc tin dung" dien ra Iff dau thdng 7/2012. Kd't qud Id ehi trong vdng mdt tudn ddu thdng 7 tdc dO ting tin dung cho vay so vdi cudi ndm 2011 da ting manh tff 0,67% cudi tiidng 6/2012 len 1,76% tfnh din 6/7/2012, nghta Id hdn mpt ty USD dUpc bdm ra dudi blnh thffc tin dung chl trong mOt tudn.
Thdng 8/2012 cQng ehffng ki^n mffc tdng vgt cda lupng tiln mi Ngan hdng Nhi nffdc bdm ra qua thi ttffdng md (OMO). Cdc quan chffc cda Ngan hing Nhi nffdc tran an dU luan rang sd lien bdm ra se dUpe hut ve ttong vdng 7 ngay nen se khdng dnh hUdng den eung tien ndi chung.
The nhffhg, ttong tudn tff 4 d^n 7/9/2012 mffc bdm rdng cdn tdi ttdn 800 ty ddng (bdm ra 11.799 ty ddng, hut v l 10.960 ty ddng). Thdng tin tff BO K l hoach vi Dau tu cung cho thay d^u hidu ndi ldng tii chinh khi vin lai dUde rdt vao edc dff dn mdi v i cd c h l cd'p von kilu manh mdn "cho nay 3 ty ddng, chd kia 5 ty ddng, 71^ ddng..." v§n dffdc tie'^ tuc.
Theo dff dodn cda nhieu chuydn gia, lam phdt nam 2012 cd the d mffc tff 7 den 8%, cd nghTa l i gid thi trffdng ttong quy IV se ting 4%, bang mpt nda mffc tdng ttong 9 thdng ddu nim. Dd Ii mdt mffc ting eao cd the tao di cho lam phdt trong nim 2013, mdt khi su ndi ldng tin dung vi ddu tU ttong nam nay "ngam"
sang quy I (cd thdng Tit) vi nhffng quy tilp theo cda nim 2013.
Tien sT Vu Dinh Anh rat ed ly khi eho ring mdi quan tam cda kinh te vl md Viet Nam eho dd'n nay vin Id lam phdt chff khdng phii gidm phdt. Gd'c r l cda van d l ndy nam d cd chd' didu hinh nin kinh t l ttong nhieu nim qua vd dang dUdc tiep tuc cho dd'n nay, the hidn d tinh ttang phdt hinh ttdi phid'u ctiinh phii, thim chi Id ffng trffdc ngin sdch de bd ddp thieu hut mdi khi chi tieu vffdt qud khd ning thu ngin sdch (ttong vide niy tit nhien ed sff can dff cda Ngdn hdng Nhd nUde).
Nhffng gidi phdp nay tiiffc chat cung Ii hinh thffc in tiln de chi tidu. Kich clu tidu ddng thdng qua cdng cu cda chfnh sach tiln td khdng chi dnh hffdng d i n lam phdt ttong ngdn ban, ma cdn cd the din d i n lam phdt tilm ting. Khdc phuc lam phdt ngan han khdng qua khd doi vdi ky thudt dilu hdnh cde cdng cu thi trffdng, nhiftig kilm sodt l^m phdt mOt cdch cd bdn, ldm tien d l cho tang trffdng b i n vffng can sU d i i mdi tU duy tff khdu ra quylt sdch.B
Economy and Forecast Review
