CHAT LU'OiNG TANG TRU'dNG KINH TE VIET NAM NAM 2015 VA NHUNG KHUYEN NGHI CAI THIEN CHO GIAI DOAN 2016-2020
Ngo Thing Loi*, Tran Thj Van Hoa*
Ngay nhan: 25/12/2015 Ngay nhan ban sita: 04/01/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 05/01/2016
Tom tat:
Bdi viit ndy nghien cim ve chat lugng tdng truang kinh ti ciia Viet Nam nam 2015. Kit qud nghiin citu cho thdy mac dit nam 2015 tdng truang kinh ti dgt mice cao nhdt trong 5 nam 2011- 2015 nhitng vdn tdn tgi nhiiu hgn chi nhu: tdng truang vdn mang ndng tinh gia cdng, cdu triAC tdng truang chua hgp ly, hieu qud tdng truang cdn thdp. Bdi viit cSng dd tim ra nhiing nguyin nhan dnh huang true tiip din nhitng khia cgnh vi chat lugng tdng truang ndi tren vd dua ra cdc khuyin nghi gidi phdp dp dung cho giai dogn 2016-2020.
Tir khoa: Tang trudng, chat lupng, cau tnic, hieu qua, nang suat lao ddng
The quality of Vietnam's economic growth in the year 2015 and recommendations for 2016-2020
Abstract:
This paper examines the quality of Vietnam's economic growth in 2015. The results show that although in 2015 the economic growth reached its highest level in 5 years from 2011 to 2015 but still has many limitations such as the growth depends heavily on outsourcing, the structure of growth is irrational, and the growth efficiency is low. The paper also indicates reasons and proposes some recommendations for the period 2016 — 2020.
Keywords; Growth; quality; structure; efficiency; labour productivity.
1. Gioi thieu phan tich, danh gia va nit ra nhung "van dg ndi Tdng cue Thdng ke (2015) khang dinh nam 2015, cgm" vl chit lugng tang trudng nam 2015 (bao gom Viet Nam da dat dugc toe do tang trudng GDP cao ciu tnic tang trudng va hieu qua tang trudng). Tir nhit trong giai doan 2011- 2015 (6,68%). Tuy dd, tac gia khuyin nghi nhirng dinh hudng va giai nhign, dl dat dupe eon sd tang trudng ndi tren, phap digu chinh nham; mdt mat, van bao dam dat chiing ta da phai tra gia nhu thi nao (tinh hieu qua <lii<?c toe dp tang trudng nhanh, nhung mat khac, cai tang trudng), kha nang duy tri va gia tang con sd thien dupe ciu tnic tang trudng va nang cao hieu tang trudng trgn trong tuong lai ra sao (ciu tnic tang qua dat dugc cHa cac chi tigu tang trudng cua giai trudng)? Dd la cac cau hdi vl chit lugng tang doan tigp sau (2016-2020).
trudng dang dugc dat ra, nhim danh gia hieu ling D I giai quylt cae ndi dung ndi tren, bai vilt da sir cua de an tai ciu tnic md hinh tang trudng thyc hien dung: (i) Phuong phap tdng hpp phan tich danh gia trong giai doan 2011-2015. sd lieu thir d p dua trgn so sanh chudi (theo thdi Vdi each dat vln dl ndi tren, dua trgn he thdng sd gian) va so sanh cheo (vdi cac nude khac) dl xac lieu cdng bd chinh thiic cila Tdng cue Thdng kg, kgt dinh cac dpng lyc chinh eua tang trudng va hieu qua hgp vdi mdt sd tai lieu bao cao khac nhu The World tang trudng kinh te; (ii) phuong phap hdi quy theo Bank (2015) va Ngan hang ANZ (2015), bai vilt ham san xuit dl xac dinh ciu tnic tang tru'dng GDP
Hinh 1: T6c do tang trudng GDP nam 2015 (%) 6.8
6,6 6.4 6.2 6 5,8 5.6 5.4 5,2 5
2011
Ngudn: Tdng cue Thdng ke (2015)
theo dau vao; (iii) Phuong phap khung logic dugc sit dung de de xuat khuygn nghi va giai phap theo hudng: nhung van de dat ra va nguygn nhan se dugc xu ly va giai quygt bang quan digm dinh hudng va giai phap cho nhirng nam 2016-2020.
2. Tang trudng kinh te 2015 va nhirng "van de" noi com ve chat lupng tang trudng
2.1. Tang tru&ng tong sdn pham quoc ndi (GDP) nam 2015 dat mite cao nhdt trong 5 nam vd vugt so v&i KH dat ra ddng ke tao dieu kien cdi thien mite thu nhap binh qudn ddu nguoi
Nam 2015, vdi mdt sd cac yeu td "'manh" tac dpng den nen kinh tg, gdm (i) mdi trudng kinh doanh thuan lgi hem cho linh vyc kinh doanh va diu tu vdi lai suat va chi phi dau vao dgu d mure thap, (ii) hoat dpng san xuat kinh doanh, xay dung va xuit khau cua khu vyc FDI ndi rigng, (iii) hoat ddng xuit khau ciia toan bp ngn kinh tg ndi chung, tang trudng
2011-2015
kinh t l eiia Viet Nam da dat dugc mdt kgt qua dang ghi nhan (hinh 1).
Hinh 1 cho thiy tang trudng GDP nam 2015 dat cao nhat trong 5 nam giai doan 2011-2015, va vugt so vdi chi tigu ke hoach dat ra cho nam nay (6,2%).
Quy 4 tang trudng dat cao nhat (7,01%)) ngang vdi miic trung binh cua giai doan 2006-2010 (7,02%) va cao hon nhiing nam cudi cua giai doan 2006-2010.
Vdi ket qua dd, nhigu chuygn gia kinh te qudc tg da danh gia kinh tg Viet Nam la "anh sang higm hoi trong bile tranh am dam cua hau het cac ngn kinh te mdi ndi"
Trong khi nam 2015, tdc dp tang trudng cua Viet Nam dat cao nhit trong giai doan 2011-2015 thi toan khu vuc Ddng A - Thai Binh Duong tang trudng chi dat 6,5%, thip hon nam 2014 (6,8%) (ADB, 2014a; The World Bank (2015), Tmng Qudc la 7% thip ban so vdi 2014, dat 7,5% (ADB, 2014b;
The World Bank (2015), cac nude nhu Campuchia Hinh 2: Thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi cua Viet Nam 2015 (theo USD)
2500
2000
2052 2109
1908
1500
1273
1000
500
, 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nguon: Tdc gid tinh todn tit so lieu cita Tong cue Thong ke 2014 2015
So 223 thing 01/2016 12
Hinh 3 : T 6 C do tang t r u d n g G O va G D P n a m 2015 (%)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
• Too do tang GO * Toe do tang GDP Ngudn: Tinh todn tit sd lieu ciia Tdng cue Thdng ke
hay Myanmar du kien chi cdn dat 6,5% du nam ciia ea giai doan 2011-2015 va khoang each ve thu 2014 da dat 8,4% (ADB, 2014a; Ngan Hang ANZ, nhap binh quan dau ngudi eiia Viet Nam so vdi mdt 2015; The World Bank, 2014 va 2015). sd nude trong khu vyc giam dan.
Vdi kgt qua trgn, mile va tdc dp tang thu nhap 2.2. Tdng truthig kinh te vdn mang ndng tinh binh quan dau ngudi cua nam 2015 ciing gia tang chat tdng tru&ng nh& vdo gia cdng v&i tdc dp tdng dang kg (hinh 2). tru&ng tong gid tri sdn xudt (GO) l&n hon nhieu so
Hinh 2 cho thiy thu nhap binh quan d i u ngudi "oi tdc dp tang tru&ng (GDP)
nam 2015 bang 1,4 lan so vdi nam 2011, tdc dp tang Chgnh lech giira tdc do tang trudng GO va GDP binh quan vg thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi dat 8% nam 2015 la 3 digm phan tram, giam di so vdi cac
Bang 1: Can triic tang trudng theo nganh 2015
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011-2015 Tdc do tdng trudng (%)
GDP
Nong nghiep - L a m nghiep - Thiiy san Cong nghiep - Xay dung Djch vu
Ddng gdp GDP
Nong nghiep - Lam nghiep - Thuy san Cong nghiep - Xay dung Dich vu
Ddngg GDP
Nong nghiep - Lam nghiep - Thuy san Cong nghiep - Xay dung Dich vu
6.24 4.02 6.68 6.83
5.25 2.68 5.75 5.9
5.42 2.64 5.43 6.57 vdo tdng trudng GDP theo di
6.24 0.76 2.55 2.93
5.25 0.5 2.21 2.54
5.42 0.48 2.09 2.85 'dp vdo tdng trudng GDP theo
100 12.18 40.86 46.96
100 9.45 42.06 48.49
100 8.86 38.56 52.58
5.98 3.49 7.14 5.96 zmphan tr
5.98 0.61 2.75 2.62 phdn trdn
100 10.2 45.99 43.81
6.68 2.41 9.64 6.33 dm
6.68 0.4 3.2 2.43
I
100 5.99 47.90 36.38
5.91 3.05 6.93 6.32 5.91 0.55 2.56 2.67 100 9.34 43.07 45.64 Ngudn: Tdc gid tinh todn titsd lieu cita Tdng cue Thdng ke Sd 223 thdng 01/2016
nam trudc cua giai doan 2011 -2015. Tuy nhign, nhin chung thi tdc dp tang trudng GDP vln thap hon kha nhilu so vdi tdc dp tang trudng GO. Viec giam khoang chgnh lech giira tdc dp tang trudng GO va GDP nam 2015 chii yeu la do gia diu vao cac ylu td san xuit nam 2015 giam di kha nhilu so vdi nhirng nam trudc. Tdc dp tang trudng GO Idn hon nhilu so vdi tdc dp tang trudng GDP phan anh mot nen kinh tl tang trudng "nhd vao gia cdng", chii ygu dua trgn lgi thi vl lao ddng re. NIU vi nln kinh tg nhu "mdt ddng sdng chay" thi tdc dp tang trudng GO Idn hon GDP da phan anh mdt hien tupng dang khdng binh thudng trong nln kinh tl Viet Nam. Theo do
"thugng ngudn" dang bi "khd" cdn "ha ngudn" thi lai "ngap"
2.3. Cdu true tdng tru&ng theo ngdnh con bdt hap ly
2.3.1. Ddng gdp cua ngdnh ndng nghiep vd dich vu vdo tdng truang cd xu hudng gidm ddng ke
Nganh ndng nghiep nam 2015 cd tdc dp tang trudng thip nhit trong giai doan 2011 -2015 va ddng gdp vao tang trudng bi giam siit nhigu nhat. Ddi vdi Viet Nam hien nay, khi phat triln ndng nghiep cdn cd "su menh" quan trpng la tao digu kien cho phat triln cdng nghiep va thucmg mai ndi dia thi day la mdt dilm ban chl trong ciu tnic tang trudng theo
nganh. Nganh dich vu cd tdc dp tang trudng thap ban cdng nghiep cung la mdt bilu hien khdng tich eye xet tren mpi khia canh ciia tang trudng kinh te.
2.3.2. Ngdnh cdng nghiep ddng gdp nhieu nhdt trong cdu true tdng truang theo ngdnh, tuy nhiin vdn chu yiu Id nhd vdo cdc ngdnh sdn pham gia cdng
Nhin bl ngoai, cac nganh cdng nghigp chl bign chl tao dat tdc dp tang trudng cao nhat (10,6%) so vdi mile trung binh cua toan nganh cdng nghiep (9,6%). Tuy nhien, ddng gdp chinh vao tdc dp tang trudng nay lai la cac nganh cdng nghiep gia cdng.
Vi du; nganh lip rap dien tir, tang trudng 37%, nganh lip rap d td tang tnrdng 54,5%; lip rap tivi la 51,2%; dien thoai di ddng - 31,6%; may mac 14%.
Trong khi dd, cac nganh chl biln tir nguyen Ueu trong nude lai nim trong nhdm tdc do tang trudng trung binh va thip: nganh chl biln thuc phim 8,5%>, dd udng 7,4%, san phim hda chit 5,4%), san xuit thudc la tang 3,8%; san xuit thudc, hda dupe, dupe lieu tang 3,6%, thuy hai san chl biln tang 6,4%;
than da tang 5,1%; dudng giam 0,3%; phan bdn hpp (NPK) giam 1,5%; vai det tir sgi tdng hpp hoac sgi nhan tao giam 4,3% (Chinh phu, 2015a; Tdng cue Thdng kg, 2015).
2.3.3. Ngdnh dich vu chdt lugng cao tdng truang
Bang 2: Cau triic tan Nam
g trudng theo Giai doan 2006-2010
diu vuc ki
2011
nh te nam
2012 2015
2013 2014 2015 Td do tdng trudng theo thdnh phdn Mnh ti (%)
Tong so Kinh te Nha nude Kinh te ngoai nha nude
Kinh tg cd vdn dau tu nude ngoai
6,32 5,01 6,17 9,62
6^4 4,46 7,44 6,3
5,25 5,68 4,91 5,38
5,42 4,84 5,35 6,7
5,82 4,62 5,93 7,72 Ddng gdp vdo tdng trudiig theo diem phdn tram
Tong so Kinh tg Nha nude Kinh te ngoai nha nude
Kinh tg cd vdn dau tu nude ngoai
6,32 1,74 3,03 1,55
6^4 1,49 3,63 1,11
5,25 1,87 2,43 0,95
5,42 1,60 2,63 1,19
5,82 1,52 2,92 1,38 Ddng gdp vdo tdng trudng theo ty lephdn tram
Tong so Kinh te Nha nude Kinh te ngoai nha nude
Kinh te cd vdn dau tu nude ngoai
100 27,51 47,91 24,58
100 23,91 58,23 17,86
100 35,61 46,24 18,15
100 29,49 48,61 21,90
100 26,07 50,14 23,79
6,68 4,50 6,51 8,40 6,68 1,61 3,29 1,78 100 24,25
49,1 26,65 Ngudn: Tdc gid tinh todn tit sd lieu cua Tdng cite Thdng ki
S3 223 thing 01/2016 14
Bang 3: Dong gop ciia cac ylu t6 d i u vao nam 2015 Nam
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011-2015
Tdcdo tang GDP
(%) 6.24 5.25 5.42 5.98 6.68 ' 5.91
T6C dd tang Lao dong
(%) 2.66 2.68 0.98 1.03
"1.43 T53
T6C do tang ciia Von
(%) 16.33 ' 14.79
13.85 13.38 13.03 13.76
Ty le dong gop cua K
(%) 63.83 68.78 62.33 54.58 47.59 56.8f
Ty le dong gop ciia L
(%) 32.20 38.54 13.72 12.99 16.2^1 19.54 :
Ty le dong gop cua TFP
(%) 3.97 -7.33 23.95 32.43 36.20 13.64 Ngudn; Tdc gid tinh todn titsd lieu ciia Tdng cue Thongke cham
Ngu tdc dp tang trudng trung binh nganh dich vu dat 6,33 thi nganh thuong mai ban budn ban le tang trudng tdi 9,5% trong do thucmg mai ban le dat
10,6%, trong khi do nganh dich vu chat lupng cao dgu thap hon mile trung binh: dich vu luu tni chi dat 5,2%, van tai hang hda va kho bai la 5,02%, nganh buu chinh vign thdng 2,1%, nganh tai chinh - ngan hang 5,1%, bat dpng san 2,96%, dich vu du lich giam 0,2% (Chinh phii, 2015a; Tdng cue Thdng kg, 2015).
2.4. Xet theo khu vuc kinh te, ddng gdp vdo tdng tru&ng chu yeu Id khu vuc cd vdn ddu tu nu&c ngodi, trong khi do khu vuc trong nu&c, nhdt la khu vuc tu nhdn tdc dp tdng tru&ng thdp
Bang 2 cho thay:
- Khu vyc d i u tu tryc tigp nude ngoai (FDI) ed tdc dp tang trudng nhanh hon nhigu mirc trung binh toan n l n kinh t l . Trong sd 0,86 digm phin tram gia tang tdc dp tang trudng nam 2015 thi khu vuc FDI ddng gdp 0,5 dilm phin tram (chilm 60%). Khu vyc xuit nhap khlu sdi dpng chu yeu d cac doanh nghigp FDI. Kim ngach xuit khau nam 2015 tang trudng 8,6%, trong khu dd khu vyc FDI tang trudng 13%, n l u loai trir xuit khau dau thd thi tdc dp tang trudng xuit khlu cua khu vyc FDI Ign tdi 18%
(trong khi dd trong nude kim ngach nhap khau giam 3,5%). Tuong tu nhu, vay tdc dp tang trudng kim ngach nhap khlu khu vyc FDI tang trudng 16,4%
(so vdi mile chung dat 12%). Digu dang ndi hon la phin Idn hang hda nhap khau eua khu vyc FDI la nguygn vat lieu phy tiing linh kien va lai dugc lip rap tai cac doanh nghiep FDI va xuat khau ra nude ngoai (Chinh phu 2015a; Tdng cue Thdng kg, 2015).
Ddng FDI vao Viet Nam trong nam 2015 eiing S3 223 thing 01/2016
van mang tinh tan dung lao ddng lam gia cdng lap rap san pham. Viec thyc hien lign kgt giiia khu vyc FDI vdi khu vyc trong nude thieu hieu qua ngu khdng ndi la khu vyc nay dang cd xu hudng chen ep khu vyc san xuat trong nude. Vi thg, trong khi khu vyc FDI xem nhu la ygu td cd vai trd "vyc" tang trudng cua Viet Nam khdi suy thoai thi khu vyc trong nude, nhat la khu vuc tu nhan ludn gap khd khan, vai trd ddng gdp trong tang trudng cd xu hudng giam di, hien tai chi ddng gdp dudi 50% tdc dp tang trudng toan ngn kinh tg.
2.5. Cdu true ddu vdo cua tdng tru&ng vdn mang ndng tinh chdt tdng tru&ng theo chieu rong, hffn nira, lai Id tdng tru&ng nh& vdo ddu tu
Dya trgn kgt qua hdi quy theo ham san xuat giai doan 2011-2015, ddng gdp vao tang trudng ciia cac ygu td dau vao the hien d bang 3.
Sd lieu tinh toan d bang 3 cho thay, ngu xet rigng nam 2015 thi ddng gdp cua ygu td nang suit eac nhan td tdng hpp (TFP) vao tang trudng cd sy gia tang va chigm ty trgng kha (so vdi nhiing nam trudc). Tuy nhign viec sir dung phuong phap hdi qua theo ham san xuat thudng cd y nghia n l u xet trong nhieu nam. Vi vay, ngu nhin vao sd lieu cua ca giai doan 2011-2015 thi:
- Dgng lite tdng truang cua Viet Nam thai gian qua vdn chu yiu la yiu td ngudn luc vat chdt (von vd lao ddng), ddng gdp 76% (so vdi giai doan 2006- 2010 chigm 72%) trong ciu tnic tang trudng theo dau vao. Dieu nay khdng hgp ly khi md hinh tang trudng Viet Nam xac dinh trong giai doan hien nay hudng dgn la md hinh tang trudng theo chilu sau hay it nhat la sy kgt hgp giiia chigu rdng va chilu sau;
Trong cdc yiu td vat chdt thi dgng luc tang truang chinh vdn la vdn (chiem 57% trong tang
Kinh teJIiiit trien
15
Bang 4: Nang suit lao dong giai doan 2011-2015 Dem vi tinh: trieu VND/lao dpng^theo gm co dinh Nam Nang suit lao dong Tdc do tang
(GDP/LD) nang suit lao dojig (%) 3 4 9 "
3^05 T . 8 4 4.91 6.40 4.34 Ngudn: Tinh todn tit sd lieu ciia Tdng cue Thdng ki
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
!011-2015
45.53 46.92 48.72 51.11 54.38 49.33
trudng kinh tg, thap hem khdng nhigu so vdi giai doan 2006-2010 - dat 58%). Mac dii diu tu trong giai doan 2011-2014 cd ty le so vdi GDP thip hon nhigu so vdi giai doan trudc nhung ddng gdp vao GDP van cao nhat;
- Ddng gdp cita TFP xet cd giai dogn 2011-2015 (xet ca giai doan cd y nghia hon ddi vdi phuong phap hdi quy), chi dat 23%, van thap hon ca giai doan 2001-2010 (chilm 26%), khdng dat so vdi k l hoach dat ra (30-32%) va ngu so vdi cac nude trong khu vyc thi ddng gdp vao tang trudng cua nhan td TFP thap hon nhigu so vdi cac qudc gia chau A khac nhu Han Qudc: 51,5%; Trung Qudc: 52%; Thai Lan: 53%; Indonesia: 49%; Malaysia: 49% (theo tinh toan tir Total Economy Database, 2014 va The World Bank, 2014).
2.6. Hieu qua dat dugc cdc chi tieu tdng tru&ng con thdp
2.6.1. Hieu qud sit ditng lao dgng (ndng sudt lao dgng)
- Tang trudng nang suit lao dpng khdng dat chi tigu dat ra va thap hon nhilu so vdi cac nude trong khu vyc.
Mac du nam 2015 tang trudng nang suit lao dpng tang khoang 6,4% (bang 4) so vdi nam 2014 nhung xet chung giai doan 2011-2015 van cdn thip so vdi mile tigu dat ra
Neu so vdi nam 2010 t i e dp tang trudng nang
Nam
Ndng, Lam, Thuy san Cdng nghiep, xay dyng Dich vu
2011 17.41 82.05 64.73
suat lao ddng nam 2015 tang Ign 23,6%, thap hon k l hoach dat ra cho giai doan nay la 29-32%. Ngu quy ddi nang suat lao ddng theo gia sue mua tucmg duong, nam 2015 dat dugc xap xi 6.000 USD. Con sd nay van thap hon rat nhigu so vdi cac nude trong khu vyc, vi du nhu: Singapore dat 98.072 USD, Malaysia: 35.715, Han Qudc 58.295, Trung Qudc:
14.985 (The World Bank, 2014).
2.6.2. Ndng sudt lao dgng cua cdc khu vttc ddng life tdng truang lgi cd xu hudng gidm sut
Bang 5 cho thay hai nganh cdng nghiep va dich vu la ddng luc tang trudng manh nhat ciia tang trudng GDP nhung nang suat lao dpng nam 2015 lai cd xu hudng giam thap hon nam 2014. Dilu nay phan anh viec chuygn ddi co elu lao ddng tir ndng nghiep sang cdng nghiep va dich vu nhung ban than hai nganh nay chua phat trign tuong xiing ngn tdc dp tang GDP khdng kip so vdi tdc dp tang lao ddng, lam cho nang suat lao ddng cua 2 khu vyc nay giam di.
2.6.3. Xet hieu qud sit dung von
Hmh 4 cho thay hieu qua sir dyng vdn giai doan 2011-2015 cd xu hudng dugc cai thien. Tinh chung giai doan 2011-2015, ty le diu tu trgn GDP giam din va theo do tdc do tang trudng ciing giam di, tuy nhien tdc dp giam ciia GDP cham hen so vdi t i e dp giam ciia ty le vdn diu tu tren GDP ngn suit diu tu tang trudng da thip di so vdi 2006-2010. Tuy nhign, hieu qua sir dung vdn van cdn d miic thip so vdi cac nude trong khu vyc (ciing thdi ky tang trudng nhanh).
Bang 5: Nang suit lao dong theo nganh
Dan vi tinh; trieu VND/lao ddng theo gid co dinh 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011-2015 17.88 18.33 18.94 19.72 18.46 85.40 88.72 92.93 81.32 86.08 64.74^ 66.77" 69.56 " 63.45 , 65.85
Ngudn: Tinh todn tit so lieu ciia Tong cue Thong ki
So 223 thing 01/2016 16
6.10 5.90 5 .70 5 .50 5 ,30 5.10 4 ,90 4 .70 4 ,50
Hinh 4: Suat dau tu tang truong 5.92
5.63
5.34 5 ,39
5 , I f
2011 2012 _2013 2014 2015 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 Ngudn; Tdc gid tinh todn tit sd lieu cita Tdng cite Thdng ke
Bang 6: Suat dau tu tang trudng cua Viet Nam vdi cac nude
Viet Nam Tmng Qudc Nhat Ban Han Qudc Dai Loan
Thdi ky tang trudng nhanh
2011-2015 1991-2003 1961-1970 1981-1990 1981 - 1990
Ty If dau tu (% GDP)
31,8 39,1 32,6 29,6 21,9
Ty le tang trudng (%)
5,9 9,5 10,2
9,2 8,0
Suit dau tu tang trudng
5,39 4,1 3,2 3,2 2,7 Ngudn: Tdc gid tinh todn tit sd lieu cua Tdng cue Thdng ke Bang 6 cho thay: suat dau tu tang trudng cua Viet
Nam giai doan 2011-2015 van cdn rat cao (gap tir 1,5 den 2 Ian) so vdi cac nude khac cd cilng thdi ky thuc hien tang trudng nhanh va trinh dp cdng nghe d mirc dp chua cao nhu Viet Nam hien nay.
3. Nguyen nhan cua nhirng "vln d l ndi com"
v l c h i t lugng tang trudng kinh te
3.1. Be dn tdi cdu true md hinh tdng tru&ng cung nhu tdi cdu true doanh nghiep nhd nu&c vd he thdng ngdn hdng chua thuc su cd hieu qud
Mac du d l an tai ciu tnic md hinh tang trudng da dugc xay dyng va trien khai thuc hien, nhung nhin chung md hinh tang trudng nam 2015 vln chii ylu dya vao su gia tang vugt trdi ciia cac nganh san xuit ciing nhu xuit khau san pham dua trgn co sd khai thac ngudn tai nguygn san cd cua dat nude, cac san p h i m thd, cac san pham mang tinh chat gia cdng dya vao ngudn lao ddng re, nang suat lao ddng xa hdi cdn rit thip, trinh do khoa hpc, cdng nghe ygu kem, chi phi san xuat trung gian cdn cao va ed chilu hudng gia tang trong nhigu nam trd lai day. Chinh sach tang trudng van hudng theo chigu rdng, tap trung vao sd lugng. Digu do la nguyen nhan din din
tinh chat kem hieu qua va cau tnic tang trudng khdng bao dam yeu eau chat lugng.
Qua trinh cd phan hda doanh nghiep nha nude dang dien ra kha cham chap. Trong nam 2015, Chinh phu da Ign kg hoach cd phan hda 289 doanh nghigp nha nude nhung dgn nay mdi chi cd 94 doanh nghiep dugc cd phan hda (Tdng cue Thdng kg, 2015). Trong khi tign dp cd phan hda doanh nghigp nha nude da cham lai thi hoat ddng cung cd nganh ngan hang (sap nhap va mua ban ngan hang thuong mai) da tang tdc trong nira diu nam 2015, nhung ng xau van la van de Idn.
3.2. Khu vuc kinh te tu nhdn vdn tiep tuc gap nhieu khd khan trong sdn xudt kinh doanh
Trong nam 2015, ed 21.506 doanh nghiep quay trd lai boat dpng. Tuy nhign, sd doanh nghiep giai thg, cham dirt boat ddng la 9.467, sd doanh nghiep gap khd khan budc phai tam ngimg boat ddng la 71.391 (tang gap 3,5 lan so vdi sd doanh nghiep quay trd lai boat dpng, tang 22,4% so vdi cung ky nam trudc) (Tdng cue Thong kg, 2015). Viec kilm soat chinh sach tiln te, chinh sach tai khda thit chat va chinh sach cila cac ngan hang v l n kha than trpng
trong viec d p phep tin dung de giam nguy co no xiu tang len da lam cho doanh nghiep cd nang lyc tai chinh ylu kem se vln khd tigp can vdn.
3.3. Ngdnh nong nghiep bi suy gidm gay "hau qud kep" ve cdu true tdng truang theo ngdnh
Nganh ndng nghigp nam 2015 vln phat triln chil ylu la nhd lg, cac nganh san pham hang hda cd gia tri kinh tl cao, tap trung trgn quy md Idn chua phat triln manh. Chua hinh thanh eac vung san xuat tap trung kit hgp vdi chl biln sau dg trd thanh vung kinh tl ddng lyc. Dac biet, trong chan nudi va nuoi trdng thuy san qua trinh chuyin tir phuong thiic san xuit nhd lg, phan tan sang phat trign cdng nghiep, tap trung rit cham. Tdc dp tang trudng cham cua nganh ndng nghiep nam 2015 dupe xem nhu la nguygn nhan "kep" cho sy suy giam tang trudng toan nln kinh tl va anh hudng den cau tnic tang trudng theo nganh: (i) su sut giam ciia nganh ndng nghigp mdt mat da lam cho ty trpng ndng nghiep trong GDP giam di, mat khac (ii) da cd anh hudng tigu cue dgn cac nganh cdng nghiep chg bign san pham tir ndng nghiep va thuong mai dich vu cung cap dau vao va tigu thy san pham ndng nghiep.
3.4. Han che trong viec bdo ddm ngudn luc cho tdng tru&ng
3.4.1. Chdt lugng vd hiiu qud cdc ddng vdn cdn thdp
Ddi vdi ddng vdn dau tu trong nude: Ty trpng dau tu nha nude trong tdng vdn dau tu toan xa hdi nam 2015 van cdn chigm tdi 40% (Chinh phu 2015a va 2015b), van cdn kha cao. Trong mdt sd trudng hpp van cd su lan at cua dau tu cdng ddi vdi dau tu tu nhan. Dau tu ciia nha nude van tham gia nhigu vao ca nhiing ITnh vuc ma khu vyc tu nhan cd thg thyc hien tdt. Trong ngudn vdn nha nude, dau tu tir ngan sach van chigm xap xi 50% la qua cao so vdi yeu cau cda nd.
Ddi vdi ddng vdn dau tu nude ngoai: do chua dinh vi dugc vi the cua Viet Nam trong chudi gia tri toan cau, ddng FDI van tap trung vao lap rap (trung ngudn - mid-stream) cd gia tri gia tang thip. Ddi tac dau tu vao Viet Nam chii ygu tir chau A, nha diu tu nude ngoai la cac doanh nghiep nhd va vira chilm ty trpng cao. Muc tieu thu hiit cdng nghe cao va cdng nghe ngudn, chuygn giao cdng nghe chua dat dupe. Cho den nay, da sd cdng nghe sir dung trong cac dy an FDI tai Viet Nam van chi d mirc trung binh so vdi thi gidi (80%), rit it doanh nghiep sir dung cdng nghe cao (5-6%), mdt sd su dung cdng
nghe d miic thip va lac hau (14%) (Chinh phii (2015a va 2015b).
3.4.2. Sit yiu kem vd Igc hau cua yeu td cong nghi
- Chuyin giao cdng nghi tit bin ngodi vdo thiiu hiiu qud: Trong nhilu nam thyc hien thu hiit FDI, chimg ta cd thanh cdng dang kg, quy md sd lugng FDI tang nhanh. Tuy nhign, muc tieu thu hiit FDI nhim chuyin giao cdng nghe thi gan nhu khdng thyc hien dugc, da sd cae dy an FDI dgu chi nham muc tigu su dyng lao ddng re va khai thac bdn nit tai nguyen. Nhilu dy an FDI su dyng cdng nghe d trinh dp rit thip, tigu phi dien nang rat cao, gay d nhiem mdi trudng rit nang ng.
Hiiu qud cua nghiin citu vd triin khai trong nude (R&D) cdn thdp: Cd thi ndi chiing cd diu tu cho R&D, ciing cd kha nhilu dl tai nghign cilu hoan thanh trong nam, tuy nhign hieu qua cua R&D qua thip. Mat khac, muc diu tu cho khoa hpc cdng nghe chua thda dang (2% chi ngan sach). Trong khi dd, ehua cd chinh sach khuygn khich hoac bao lanh ddi vdi viec ty bd vdn cua cac don vi san xuat, hoac vdn ty cd tir cac co sd nghien ciru khoa hgc, trudng dai hpc, cac khu cdng nghe cao nham nang cao nang luc vdn dau tu cho khoa hpc cdng nghe.
- Luc lugng lao ddng thiiu ky ndng, tay nghi cao;
Day la mdt thach thiic rat Idn cho Viet Nam trong thyc hien md hinh tang trudng theo chigu sau. Dac biet, trong bdi canh dan sd Viet Nam budc vao thdi ky "co cau dan sd vang" thi viec nang cao ky nang, tay nghg cho ngudi lao ddng (dg tir dd nang cao nang suat lao ddng) se la ygu td then chdt thiic day tang trudng kinh tg theo chigu sau. Su khac biet Idn vg ky nang, tay nghg giiia cac khu vyc (ndng thdn, thanh thi) va giGa cac nhdm dan tdc (ngudi Kinh va ngudi dan tdc thigu sd) dang tao ra nhirng khoang each Idn ve tang trudng va phat trign giira cac khu vuc va viing.
4. Khuyen nghi giai phap cho giai doan 2016 - 2020
4.1. Tiep tuc thuc hien chuyen doi mo hinh tdng tru&ng thich ung v&i nhirng dieu kien &giai dogn 2016-2020
Md hinh tang trudng kinh tg Viet Nam giai doan 2016-2020 can dugc xac dinh la: md hinh tang trudng ben virng, bieu qua va vi eon ngudi, dua tren CO sd khai thac va su dung tdt nhat cac lgi thg canh tranh qudc te, bang cac yeu td tang trudng theo chigu sau, van hanh theo co chg kinh tg thi trudng
So 223 thing 01/2016 M
m
hoan chinh, trong mdt mdi trudng thi chg cd tinh trach nhiem va minh bach cao. Md hinh tang trudng ndi tren ham chiia ba yeu td co ban:
(i) Muc tiiu cin dat dupe cua qua trinh tang trudng kinh tl la: ben virng, hieu qua va vi con ngudi;
(ii) Dgng luc tang trudng chinh la tao dung va phat huy cac lgi the canh tranh qudc tg;
(iii) Phuang thitc thyc bien: hudng tdi dua tren cac ygu td tang trudng theo chieu sau va trgn ngn mdt CO chg kinh tg thi trudng hoan chinh trong mot mdi trudng thg chg trach nhiem va minh bach cao.
4.2. Tdng cu&ng chinh sdch ddi v&i khu virc kinh te tu nhdn nhdm tao dieu Men cho khu virc ndy tr& thdnh ddng luc tdng tru&ng cua nen kinh ti
Quan digm chung la can tao nhiing digu kien dg kinh te tu nhan, dac biet eac doanh nghiep tu nhan ty ddi mdi, nang cao kha nang canh tranh, cimg phat trien va phat huy vai trd vdi cac khu vyc kinh tg khac. Vdi y nghia dd, chiing tdi kign nghi vg ddi mdi quan ly nha nude vdi khu vuc kinh te tu nhan theo cac ndi dung cu thg sau:
Mot Id, ddi mdi cdng tac viec xay dung chign luge va quy hoach phat trien cho cac nganh va cac dia phuong. Dg cac chign luge va quy hoach nay trd thanh cdng cu trong quan ly dieu hanh, gan vdi viec ban hanh cac co chg chinh sach cu the dg hudng dan va khuyin khich cac boat ddng dau tu phu hgp vdi quy hoach, khIc phuc tinh ty phat va tim nhin ngan ban, thilu chiln lupc kinh doanh dai ban ciia cac nha dau tu tu nhan.
Hai la, Nha nude da cd nhigu nd lyc trong cai thien mdi trudng kinh doanh, tao digu kien thuan Ipi cho phat triln khu vyc kinh tg tu nhan. Tuy nhign, mdi trudng kinh doanh hien nay vln cdn can cai thien nhilu nhu: Phan biet ddi xir va bat binh ding trong mdi trudng kinh doanh; sy thigu ddng bd ciia he thong luat phap; viec ban hanh cac van ban hudng din thi hanh phap luat cham tri, cdng tac tuygn truyin, phd bign va hudng dan thi hanh phap luat kem hieu qua. Cac "diem nghen" cHa ngn kinh tl, nhu kit elu ha ting ky thuat lac hau va khdng ddng bd, ngudn nhan lye chat lugng thap, cai each hanh chinh tiln hanh cham va kem hieu qua... cham dugc giai tda, khdng nhiing can trd sy phat trien ciia kinh tl tu nhan can dupe khac phuc.
4.3. Thirc hien tdi cff cdu sdn xudt ndng nghiep
theo hu&ng tgo dd cho cdng nghiep vd thuffng mgi dich vu ndi dia tdng tru&ng nhanh
Thic nhdt, khi thuc hien tai co cau ndng nghiep can phai luu y dgn 3 ndi dung quan trpng, do la: tai CO cau khdng gian san xuat ndng nghiep; tai co cau chudi nganh hang ndng san va tai ca cau ddi tupng tham gia san xuat ndng nghiep. Thyc tg cho thay, trgn mdi viing ciia dat nude, ndng nghiep cd lgi thg va chirc nang, vai trd kinh tg, xa hdi, sinh thai mdi trudng khac nhau. Do vay, can thiet cd nhigu md hinh san xuat ndng nghiep phu hgp vdi tirng viing.
Qua trinh tai co cau can dinh hinh rd co chg, chinh sach, chign luge phat trign cac md hinh san xuat phu hgp theo vimg mign. Cd nhu vay, tigm nang lgi thg ciia timg viing mdi dupe phat huy; san pham ndng nghigp mdi cd siic canh tranh cao.
Thie hai, hd trp ndng dan ket ndi vdi cac doanh nghiep chl bidn, he thdng tigu thu san pham, timg budc binh thanh mang ludi san xuat va chudi cung img kgt ndi san xuat, chg bign, phan phdi va ban san pham; kgt ndi cdng nghiep phuc vy ndng nghiep vdi san xuat ndng nghiep, kgt ndi "bdn nha" trong san xuat, tieu thy; khuygn khich dau tu phat trign cdng nghiep chg bign ndng, lam, thdy san theo hudng hien dai.
4.4. Bdo ddm cdc nguon luc thuc hien ndng cao chdt lugng tdng tru&ng
4.4.1. Bdo ddm vdn ddu tu
Vdi thyc tign nhigu nam qua cho thay cac ngudn vdn da timg budc dupe da dang boa trong digu kien md cira va phat trign thi trudng vdn. Quy md va ty trgng vdn dau tu trgn GDP tai Viet Nam da dat dupe d muc kha cao so vdi cac nude trong khu vyc. Vi vay van de hang dau cua Viet Nam hien nay khdng phai la tich eye huy dpng mpi ngudn vdn bang mpi gia ma la sir dung vdn dau tu cd hieu qua dac biet la ddi vdi dau tu cdng. Trong huy ddng vdn dau tu can dam bao tinh bgn viing va nang cao hieu qua sir dung. Tdng vdn dau tu toan xa hdi chi chigm khoang 1/3 GDP, ty trpng ciia dau tu nha nude (dau tu cdng) khdng vugt qua 1/3 tdng vdn dau tu toan xa hdi.
4.4.2. Cd chinh sdch dot phd phdt triin cdng nghi thdng qua con duang chuyin giao cdng nghi vd nghiin citu trien khai trong nuac
- Ddi vdi chuygn giao cdng nghe: Cin cd chiln luge thu hut FDI theo hudng nang cao chit lugng ciia ddng vdn, coi day la digm quan trpng nhit dl thyc hien cd hieu qua chuyen giao cdng nghe. Tir
viec xac dinh chiln luge diing se la co sd dl lya khu cdng nghiep nay. Can cd cac chinh sach gan kit chpn cac ddi tac diu tu phu hgp. Cu thi, chiln luge nghien cilu khoa hpc trong cac tnrdng dai hpc vdi thu hiit FDI trong nhiing nam tdi cin tap trung vao cac co sd san xuit kinh doanh, nhin manh din cac cac du an cd cdng nghe hien dai, than thien vdi mdi chinh sach khuyin khich dau tu nghign cilu ddi mdi trudng va tang cudng su lidn kit giiia cac khu vyc; cdng nghe va san pham.
cac nganh, linh vyc tao ra cac san pham cd lgi thg 4.4.3. Bdo dam ngudn nhdn Ittc chdt lugng cao canh tranh, san phim cd kha nang tham gia mang ^^Q^g giai phap xung quanh viec bao dam ngudn san xuit va chudi gia tri toan elu, nhu cdng nghe ^^^ j ^ ^ ^.j^^^ j ^ ^ g ^^^. (j) jjjj^ ^u-^^g^ c^c jja cao, CO khi, cdng nghe thdng tin va truygn thdng, phuang, tham chi doanh nghiep cin cd chinh sach dugc, cdng nghiep sinh hpc; cdng nghiep mdi d^u tu phat triln ngudn nhan luc chit lugng cao, bao tnrdng va cac nganh sii dung nang lugng sach, nang gg^. tj„g ^.^^^g gynh sach dl giu chan nhirng lugng tai tao, vat lieu mdi.... ngudi tai gidi, cdng vdi do la chien luge phat trign - Ddi vdi cdng tac R&D trong nude: can tang nhan sy, lam tdt cdng tac quy hoach, xay dyng va cudng vai trd nay ddi vdi ciia cac khu cdng nghe phat trign ngudn nhan lyc, nganh hang chign luge cao, bao gdm bd phan nghien eiiu vudn uom cdng ma minh cd Ipi the, ddng thdi ciing cd, dao tao, nang nghe, bd phan san xuat thir va ca bd phan dao tao cao trinh dp va tay nghg dpi ngii nhan luc, dg ra cac phat trien ngudn nhan lyc chat lugng cao. Bgn canh muc tigu va phuong thuc hudng hoat ddng cua dd cd chinh sach uu tien ddi vdi cac khu cdng doanh nghiep phii hpp vdi cac ddi hdi ciia qua trinh nghigp khi phat trign phan cdng nghe cao trong cae hdi nhap kinh tg qudc tg.n
Tai lieu tham khao
Asian Development Bank [ADB] (2014a), Asian Development Outlook 2014 Supplement: Growth Hesitates in Devel- oping Asia, Metro Manila - Philippines.
Asian Development Bank [ADB] (IQlAh), Asian Development Outlook2014 Supplement: Stable Growth Outlookfor Developing Asia, Metro Manila - Philippines.
Chinh phu (2015a), Quyet dinh so 256/BC-CP Bdo cdo tinh hinh kinh te - xd hdi 2015 vddttkien ke hogch phdt Pien kinh te - xd hoi nam 2016, ban hanh ngay 17 thang 10 nam 2015.
Chinh phu (2015b), Quyet dinh sd 486/CP-KTTH Du thdo ke hogch phdt trien kinh te - xa hdi 2016-2020, ban hanh ngay 17 thang 10 nam 2015.
Ngan hang ANZ (2015), Cap nhdt thong tin kinh te todn cdu 2015, Hpp bao ngay 4 thang 11 nam 2015, Ha Noi.
The Conference Board Total Economy Database (2014), Growth Accounting and Total Factor Productivity, 1990- 2013, Uuy cap lin cudi ngay 1 thang 1 nam 2016, tir <https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydata- base/index.cfrn?id=27762>.
The World Bank (2015), Staying the Course, East Asia And Pacific Economic Update October 2015 Report, Wash- ington DC-USA.
The World Bank (2014), World Development Indicators, Washington DC-USA.
Tong cue Thong ke (2015), Bdo cdo tinh hinh kinh te - xd hoi nam 2015, Nha xuit ban Thing ke. Ha Ngi.
Thong tin tac gia:
* Ngo Thdng Lgi, Gido su, tiin sy
- Td chitc tdc gid cdng tdc: Khoa Kinh ti phdt triin, Trudng Dgi hoc Kinh ti Quoc ddn
- Linh vuc nghiin cim chinh: Kinh tiphdt trien, chiin luge vd ki hogch phdt trien, Qudn ly phdt triin -Dia chiEmaU: [email protected], [email protected]
** Trdn Thi Vdn Hoa, Phd gido su, Tien sy
- Td chiic tdc gid cdng tdc: Phd Hiiu truang, Trudng Dgi hgc Kinh ti Quoc ddn - Linh vuc nghien cim chinh: Kinh tiphdt triin, chiin luge kinh doanh.
- Dia chi Email; ttvanhoa(a),neu.edu.vn