Mure do t y do hoa tai khoan vdn d Viet Nam:
Danh gia theo nhom chF so di/a tren ctf sd phap ly
va nhom chi so dong von thi/c te
LCfdNG THI THO HANG' Tom tat
Bdi vie't ddnh gid mffc dg iff do hoa tdi khodn vdn d Viet Nam theo nhom chi sd dffa trin ca sd phdp ly vd nhom chi sdddng vdn thUc te. dSng thdi so sdnh vdi cdc qudc gia trong khu vUc.
nhu: Thai Lan, Malaysia vd Trung Qudc... Tff dd. dua ra mgt sd khuyen nghi chinh sdch ddi vdi lg trinh tudo hoa tdi khodn vdn d Viet Nam nhdm thdc ddy nhffng tdc dgng tich cUc ddi vdi nen kinh te, dong thdi ddm bdo an todn cho he thdng tdi chinh trong nudc.
Ttf khda: tit do hoa. tdi khodn vo'n, chi so dffa tren ca sd phdp ly. ddng vdn thuc te Summary
This article evaluates the capital account liberalization in terms of legal indices and indices based on actual captital flows in Vietnam and compares with other countries in the region such as Thailand. Malaysia and China. Afterwards, some recommendations on the roadmap for capital account liberalization in Vietnam are made to bring positive impacts on the economy and ensure the safety of national financial system.
Keywords: liberalization, capital account, legalindices, actual capital flows
Gldi THIEU c a sd LY THUYET VA PHl/ONG PHAP NGHIEN CLfU
Xud't phdt tff nhffng ehi phi cua kidm
soat vd'n dd'i vdi nen kinh td', ciing vdi Cd sd ly thuye't
xu hrfdng phat trien ta't ye'u eiia thdi ky Theo Henry (2007), trf do hda ldi khoan vo'n Id hpi nhdp, cdc qudc gia dan dan xda bd quye't dinh cua Chinh phii mpt qud'c gia trong viec kiem sodt ddi vdi srf di ehuye'n cua eae ehuydn doi tff cd chd' tdi khoan vdn ddng tdi mpt he ddng vdn vd dffa nen kinh le' vdo trang tho'ng tdi khoan vd'n md, trong do ddng von cd the thai trf do hda tai khoan vd'n mpt phan drfdc trf do ra hodc vdo lanh thd qud'c gia. Cung drfa hoae hodn toan. Ne'u nhrf kidm soat vo'n ra khai nidm vd trf do hda tdi khoan vd'n, Prasad va la vide mpt qude gia su" dung cde bidn Rajan (2008) cho rang trf do hda tai khoan vdn nghia phap kiera soat nham gidi han hoac dieu Id viee dd bd nhffng han ehe' dd'i vdi ddng vd'n vao chinh cde ddng vd'n vdo hoac ra khdi vd cho phep eae nha dau trf trong nrfdc dau trf trf do lanh thd qud'c gia, Ihi trf do hda tai khoan vao tai san nrfdc ngoai. Nhrf vay, trf do hda tai khoan vo'n drfdc dinh nghia la viee xda bo cac vd'n cd the hie'u Id quye't dinh eiia Chinh phii mgt han chd'dd'i vdi cac dong vd'n ndy. Vdi y qud'c gia trong viee dd bo nhffng han che do'i vdi cdc nghia quan trgng ciia Iff do hda tdi khoan giao dich trdn ldi khoan vd'n trong can can thanh loan vd'n dd'i vdi v^n dd an todn lai chinh qud'c qud'c te'.
gia, tde gia da lffa chgn chii de ve danh Dd danh gia mffc do tff do hda tai khoan vo'n cua gid mffc dp Iff do hda ldi khodn vdn d cac qud'c gia, cac nha nghien cffu kinh td'da Irfdng hda Vidl Nam drfa trdn 2 nhdm chi so' dd la; thanh hai nhdm chi so do Irfdng: Thff nhd't, nhdm chi sd nhdm ehi so' drfa tren cd sd phdp IJ va drfa trdn ed sd phdp ly; Thff hai, nhdm ehi sdddng vd'n nhdm chi sd dong vdn thrfc id'. thrfc te'.
'TS., Vien Ngan hang - Tai chinh, Trrfdng Dai hgc Kinh te Quoc dan Ngdy nhdn bdt: 17/6/2020; Ngdy phdn bifn: 25/6/2020; Ngdy duyel ddng: 28/6/2020
BANG 1; CH
Tny*: 1992 1993-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
i s o KAOPEN C
0 0.1827 0.1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0.4164 0,4164 0.4164 0,4164 0,4164
UA CAC QUC
1 0,4453 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,6949 0,4164 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164
C GIA GIAI DO
0,4164 0,4164 0.4161 0.4164 0,1657 0.4164 0,1657 0.165'^
0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0.1657 0,1657 0,1657 0.1657
*M 2005-2018
Tn«it«iB.
0 0.1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0.1657 0.1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657
Nhdm chisddtJta tren casd phdp ly
Nhdm chi sd drfa tren cd sd phdp ly drfdc tinh loan trdn ed s6 edc quy dinh trong bdo eao hang nam ve kiem sodt ngoai hd'i (Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions - AREAER) Clia IMF. Bdo cdo ndy dtfdc xua'l ban hdng ndm trong dd CO npi dung ve van de kiem sodt vo'n eiia cac qud'c gia la Ihanh vidn eiia IMF, dieu nay drfdc thd hien d dong cd ddu dd "Han chd' trong thanh todn doi vdi giao dich vd'n". Theo do, 2 chi so'drfdc sff dung de do Irfdng mffc dp trf do hoa lai khoan vdn, do Id: ehi sd Kaopen vd chi so' Schindler md rpng. Cu the nhrf sau:
Chi sd Kaopen
Chi sd Kaopen dffdc Chinn \a Iio xdy dffng lan dau tien vao ndm 2002 (Chmn va Ito, 2002), sau dd tid'p tuc phdi trid'n va cap nhat de'n nam 2018 tren website Chinn and Ito. Kaopen dffde xac dinh dffa trdn 4 bid'n gia trong bao cdo hdng ndm ve kiem sodt ngoai hoi cua IMF (AREAER) bao gdm: kl (phan dnh sff hien hffu cua ehe dp da ly gid); k2 (phan dnh han chd'trong giao dich vang lai); k3 (phan anh han che ffong giao dich vd'n) va k4 (phan dnh yeu cau phai bdn lai ngoai te tff ngudn thu xud't khau). Cdc qudc gia W do hda hoan loan lai khoan vo'n se co gid tri Kaopen bang 1, trong khi cde nffdc kiem soat tai khoan vdn hoan loan ed gia in Kaopen bdng 0. Chi sd Kaopen dffdc tinh toan dffa tren ca 4 bien, thay vi chi sff dung bien k3. \ i theo cac tdc gia, thi k l , k2. k4 deu cd lac dpng tdi k3. Cac qudc gia cd the han ehe dong vdn bang each han chej:dc giao dich iren tdi khoan vang lai hoae dp dung che dp da ty gid va nhflng yeu eau ke'l hdi ddi \d\ cdc ngudn thu Iff xua'l khau.
Chi sd Schindler md rgng
Chi sd kid'm sodt vd'n dtfde \ a \ dffng bdi Schindler (2{X)9), sau do drfdc Fernandez va cpng srf (2016) phat trien. Chi sd nay cung drfa trdn Bao eao AREAER cua IMF. Bp sd Ueu cua Schindler (2009) cho diem ddi vdi
mrfc dp kiem soat vo'n (bao gdm ca \ on vao \ a \ on ra) cua 91 qudc gia n-ong giai doan 1995-2005 drfa tren 6 npi dung, han chd ddi \di giao dich trdi phieu. han che ddi vdi giao dieh cd phieu. ihi trrfdng tien te. dau trf tap the, tin dung tai chinh, dau trf trtfc tiep nrfdc ngoai (FDI). Nam 2015.
chi sd nay drfdc phat trien va md rpng ca ve npi dung, sd qudc gia vd khoang thdi gian. Theo dd, 4 ngi dung ddnh gia dffdc bd sung bao gdm: cac cong cu phdi sinh, tin dung thrfdng mai. bao lanh tai ehinh, bat dpng san. Chi sd' Schindler md rgng cd gid tri nY 0-1. trong dd 0 thd' hien qudc gia khong kiem soat ddi vdi cac giao dich vd'n; 1 the" hien qud'e gia kiem soat hoan loan do'i vdi cac giao dieh ydn.
Nhom chi so dong von thffc te Chi sddo Irfdng ddng \ dn thrfc Id'dffdc sff dung phd bie'n la chi sd Tdng dong von vao vd ra khdi lanh tho qudc gia. Tong ddng vdn vao va ra khdi ldnh tho qudc gia bao gdm von dau iff trffc tie'p nffde ngoai, vd'n dau ttf gian tie'p nrfdc ngoai va cde loai vo'n khac. Theo Lane va Milesi- Ferreni (2001), long ddng vdn vao va ra khoi mpt qudc gia dffde do Irfdng bdng long lai san nrfdc ngodi va khoan phdi tra nrfdc ngoai ciia quo'c gia dd so vdi GDP (ehi so' FAL). Trong dd, Idi san nrfde ngodi bao gdm: Dau trf trtfc de'p (direct investment asseis), dau ttf danh muc/
gian tie'p (portfolio investment assets), dau trf khdc (other investment assets)
\a tai san dtf trff (reserve assets). Khoan phai tra nffdc ngoai bao gdm: Dau Iff trffc tiep (direct invesiment liabilities), dau tff danh muc/gidn tie'p (portfolio investment liabilities), dau itf khae (other invesiment liabilities). Sd dl, ehi sd ldng ddng \ on vao \ a ra dffdc sff dung de do Irfdng mffc dp trf do hda tai khoan vdn bdi \i dp md tai khoan vdn phai bao gdm cd \iec ngrfdi khong crf tni nam giff tai san d trong nffdc va ngffdi crf trii trong nrfde nam giff tdi san d nrfdc ngoai.
Phtfiftig pliap nghien ctfu De ed dff lieu ve nhdm chi so'drfa tren cd sd phdp 1\. bai vie't sff dung so lieu
\ e chi so' Kaopen tren website ciia Chinn vd Ito trong giai doan Iff 2005-2018 \a so' hdu ve chi sd Schindler md rpng tff nghien cffu ciia Femdndez \a cdng srf (2016) trong giai doan 2005-2013. Ben canh dd. de cd dff hdu ddi vdi nhdm chi sd dong vdn thffc te'. tdc gia da linh todn dffa trdn sd lieu eiia IMF vd WB trong giai doan 2005-2018.
20
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU Danh gia mtfc dp ttf do hda tai khoan vd'n cua Vi0t Nam dtfa trdn nhom chi so'ctf sd phap ly
Chi so'Kaopen
Vidl Nam bat dau md cffa thi Irffdng vdn tff ndm 1993. Trong giai doan 2005- 2007, Kaopen khdng ddi d mrfc 0,1657 thd hidn Iff do hda tdi khodn vo'n d mffe did'p (Bdng 1). Nam 2007 chffng kie'n mpt bffdc ngoat ldn do'i vdi nen kinh te' Vidt Nam khi nffdc ta gia nhdp To chffc Thffdng mai The gidi (WTO), tff ddy nhffng cam kd't cua Viet Nam ddi vdi viee md effa thi trffdng vdn ngay cdng cao hdn.
Ve mat phdp ly, Viet Nam da ndi long hdn cac quy dinh vd FDI, dau tff gidn tie'p nrfdc ngodi, vay nd nrfdc ngoai va dau trf ra nrfdc ngoai. FDI da drfdc trf do hda d mffc rd't eao, hidn chi bi han ehd'd rapt sP' linh vffc cam hodc han che dau trf. Ddi vdi dau tff danh mue nffdc ngoai, tff ndm 2009, cdc td chffc, ed nhan nffdc ngoai dffdc ndm giff toi da 49% tdng sd'cd phid'u cua cong ty cd phan dai chiing (khdng phdn bidt Id cdng ty nidm yd't hay chffa niem yd't), tdi da 49% tdng sd chffng chi quy dau tff cua mpt quy dau trf chffng khoan dai chiing, tdi da 49% vdn dieu Id Clia mgi cong ty dau trf chffng khodn dai chiing. Ddc bidl, tff thdng 9/2015, ly Id sd hffu cua nha dau tff nffdc ngoai trong cdng ty dai ehung do'i vdi nganh nghe d^u tff kinh doanh khdng cd didu kidn dffdc ndng len thdnh 100%. Ddi vdi vay nd nrfdc ngodi, chinh saeh cua Nhd nffdc dd'i vdi cdc khoan vay nffdc ngodi da dffde ndi long. Dieu nay dffdc the' hidn qua quy dinh ciia Nha nrfdc dd'i vdi khodn vay ciia doanh nghiep. Theo dd, doanh nghiep drfdc phep trf vay, trf trd, trf chiu trach nhiem. Tuy nhidn, vay nd nrfdc ngodi vdn phai tudn thu cdc quy dinh vd han mrfc va vide dang ky cac khoan vay de trdnh vay np nffdc ngoai qud mffe, vffdl qud lam kid'm sodl. Do'i vdi FDI, quy dinh ciia phdp ludt, ddc biet la Ludt Dau tff (nam 2005, ndm 2014) da thd' hien ro ehii trffdng eua Nha nrfdc trong viec khuyd'n khich hoat dpng dau trf trrfc tid'p ra nffdc ngoai.
Bdn canh dd, Viet Nam cung da thffc hien cam kd't khdng sff dung cde bidn phdp hanh chinh dd dieu hanh tidn Id, trong do cd bidn phdp kd'l hdi ngoai te.
Giao dich vang Iai cua Viet Nam eung
BANG 2: CHI SO SCHINDLER MCi RQNG CAC Qa6C GIA GIAI DOAN 2005-2013 Nam
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Vlf t Nam Ka 0,93 0,93 0,93 0,95 0,90 0,90 0,93 0,88 0,88
Kai 0,85 0,85 0,85 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,95 0,85 0,85
Kao 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,90
Thai Lan Ka 0,83 0,83 0,83 0,78 0,78 0,75 0,75 0,83 0,73
Kai 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,65 0,65 0,60 0,60 0,75 0,70
Kao 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,75
Malaysia Ka 0,83 0,80 0,75 0,85 0,80 0,80 0,75 0,75 0,88
Kai 0.80 0,75 0,65 0,75 0,65 0,65 0,65 0,65 0,80
K>0 0,85 0,85 0,85 0,95 0,95 0,95 0,85 0,85 0,95
Troog Onflc Ka 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1.00 0,90
Kai 1.00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,90
Kao 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,90
da dffdc tff do hda ke trf khi Phdp ldnh ngoai hd'i (nam 2005) ed hidu lffc. Vdi nhffng thay ddi nhff trdn trong quan ly tai khoan vd'n, tdi khoan vang lai va ydu cau kd't hd'i ngoai te, chi sd Kaopen cua Viet Nam da tdng len dang ke Iff mffc 0,1657 (nam 2007) len 0,4164 nam 2008 vd chi sd ndy drfde duy tri eho ldi nay. Con so' 0,4164 eho thd'y, Viet Nam dang trf do hoa tai khoan vdn d mffc trung binh (Bang 1).
So sdnh vdi mpt sd qudc gia trong khu vrfe, ed thd' tha'y, giai doan 2005-2008, Thai Lan va Malaysia cd mffc dp Iff do hda tai khoan vdn cao hdn so vdi Vidt Nam song trong giai doan 2009-2014, chi so' Kaopen d hai qudc gia nay giam xudng mffc 0,1657. Trong bdo cdo AREAER ciia IMF nam 2014 co the' thay, ca ba quoe gia Viet Nam, Thai Lan vd Malaysia deu khdng duy tri che dP da ty gid, khong yeu cau ke't hd'i ngoai Id, van thrfc hidn cdc bidn phdp kidm sodl ddi vdi tdi khoan vd'n. Song chi cd Viet Nam cho phdp trf do hda hodn toan do'i vdi giao dich vdng lai. Thai Lan van tie'p luc duy tri chi sd Kaopen d mffc 0,1657 cho dd'n nam 2018, trong khi do trf nam 2015, Malaysia cho phep trf do hda ddi vdi cac giao dich vdng lai va do vay chi sd Kaopen tang tff 0,1657 ldn dd'n 0,4164 Iff nara 2015 de'n nay.
Dd'i vdi Trung Qud'c, mdc dii day Id nen kinh te' ldn Ihff hai trdn the' gidi, song thi trffdng vo'n dffdc md cffa d mffc dp rat thap. CQng gio'ng nhff Viet Nam, trrfdc nam 1992, Trung Quo'c hoan loan kiem soat vd'n, sau dd cac quy dinh ddi vdi ddng vd'n ra/vao lanh thd dan drfdc ndi long, nhrfng khdng dang ke. Chi so' Kaopen d mffc 0,1657 trong sud't giai doan Iff khi Trung Qud'c bat dau md effa thi trffdng vd'n (nam 1993) cho tdi nam 2013.
Nhff vay, ve mat phap ly, theo tinh todn cua Chinn vd Ito (2002). mffc dp tff do hda tai khoan vo'n d Viet Nam trong giai doan gan day ngang bang vdi Malaysia va cao hdn so vdi mpt so nffde, do la: Thdi Lan vd Trung Qude.
Chi so'Schindler md rdng
Mffc dp Iff do hda tai khoan vd'n d Viet Nam trong giai doan 2005-2013 thd'p hdn so vdi Thdi Lan, Malaysia va cao hdn so vdi Trung Qudc (Bang 2).
21
BIEG DO: TONG T A I SAN VA KHOAN PHAI TRA NdCiC NGOAl/GDP
Mguon. Tinh
Ddi vdi Vidt Nam, ve cd bdn, chi sd' Schindler md rpng CO xu hffdng giam xud'ng nghTa la mffc dp iff do hda tdi khodn vdn cd xu hrfdng tang len. Trong dd, co mpi sd mdc Ihdi diem ddng Irfu y nhrf sau: (I) Ndm 2008, mffc dp kiem sodl do'i vdi ddng vd'n vao tang tff 0,85 ldn 0,9 dochisd'de_siartangtrf01dn 1 (Nha nrfdc han che"^ vide ban va phat hanh eae cPng eu phai sinh cua ngrfdi crf tni Viet Nam ra nrfdc ngodi); (2) Nam 2009, mrfc dp kiera sodt ddng vd'n ra giam iff 1 xudng 0,9 do chi so' re_slbn gidm xud'ng 0 (Ngrfdi khdng crf trii dffde ban bd't dgng san d Viet Nara); (3) Nam 2011, mffc dp kiem soat dong vdn vao lang trf 0,9 ldn 0,95 do chi sd'bo_plbn tang tff 0 ldn 1 (Han chd'ngrfdi khdng crf Ini mua Irdi phid'u d Vidl Nam); (4) Ndm 2012, mffc dp kidm sodt ddng vdn vao giam tff 0,95 xudng 0,85 do chi sd gsi gidm tff 1 xuong 0 (Xda bd han che' ddi vdi ddng vdn nrfdc ngodi vao drfdi hinh thffc bao dani, bao lanh).
Nhff vay, chi sd' phdp ly Kaopen va Schindler md rpng ddu cho thd'y, Chinh phu Viet Nam dang ngay cang ndi long quy dinh han che'do'i vdi cdc ddng vdn di ra/di vao lanh thd quo'c gia. Hay ndi each khde, mffc do tff do hda lai khoan vd'n d Viet Nam trdn ed sd phdp 1^
dang cd xu hffdng tdng ldn.
Danh gia mffc dp ttf do hda tai khoan vd'n cua Vi^t Nam dtfa t r e n nhom chi so'dong vd'n thtfc td'
Giai doan 2005-2007, mac dii Kaopen giff nguyen khdng dd'i d mffc 0,1657 song chi sddong vo'n thrfc te (FAL) ed xu hrfdng tang qua cac nam vd dai mffe cao nha't vdo nam 2007 (Bid'u dd). Sff ldng len ddt bid'n vao ndm 2007 chu yd'u xud't phat tff srf tang len manh rae Clia eae dong vo'n vdo dac bidt la FDI va dau trf danh mue. Trong giai doan ndy cd srf tdng ldn ciia mffc dp trf do hda tdi khodn vo'n theo chi sd Schindler md rpng song chi didn ra trong hai nam 2003-2004. Giai doan 2008-2009, mac dii Kaopen lang manh riy0,1657 len mffc 0,4164, ddng thdi chi sd Schindler met rpng ciing the hidn mffc do tff do hda tang ldn (chi so'giam Iff 0,95 xudng 0,90) song ehi sd FAL cua Viet Nam lai giam manh (Bang 1 va Bang 2). Dieu nay la do anh hffdng tff khiing hoang tdi ehinh loan cau khie'n cho ca dong vd'n vdo va ra khoi ndn kinh tddeu giam xuong.
Giai doan 2009-2018. cd thd' quan sat dia'y srf van dgng khong dn dinh cua chi sd FAL tai Vidl Nam. Tuy
nhidn, bidn dp dao dpng ciia chi so' FAL lai Vidt Nam v^n tha'p hdn nhieu so vdi Malaysia vd Thai Lan. Dde bidt, long • ldi san va khoan phai tra nrfdc ngoai tai Viet Nam cao nha't so vdi Malaysia, Thai Lan vd Trung Qudc trong giai doan 2015-2018.
Malaysia vd Thdi Lan la hai qudc gia cd chi sd FAL bie'n dpng manh nha't qua ede nam. & Malaysia, nam 2(K)6 va giai doan 2009-2015, chi sd FAL 6 mffc cao nhd'l, dac bidt nam 2007, FAL cao nhd'l d mffc 0,284. Tuy nhidn, Malaysia cung Id 1 trong 4 nffdc (bao gdra Malaysia, Thdi Lan, Philippine vd Han Qudc) chiu anh hffdng ndng ne nha't trong cupc khiing hoang tai chinh loan cau 2008-2009.
Nam 2008, tdng tdi san vd khoan phai h-a nrfdc ngodi/GDP eua Malaysia xudng tdi mffe-0,0191.
Tffdng tff Malaysia, Thai Lan cung Id nrfde cd chi so' ddng vdn thffc te' bid'n dpng manh. Bieu dd 1 chi ra 4 dinh cao nhat cua chi sd FAL rdi vdo cde ndm 2006, 2010, 2012 vd 2017, ddng thdi c6 3 day thd'p nha't rdi vao cac nam 2008, 20II vd 2015. Trong dd ndm 2008, chi sd FAL Id tha'p nhat vd eung Id chi so' ihd^p nha't trong loan bp khu vffe ASEAN, d raffc-0,0071.
Trung Qudc Id qud'c gia cd nen kinh te' ldn thff hai tren the gidi song mffc dp md effa ddi vdi thi irffdng vdn d mffc rat tha'p. Dieu nay the hidn trong ca chi so' phdp ly Kaopen, Schindler md rpng vd chi sd FAL. Chi sd FAL d mffc ra'l dn dinh, khdng chiu dnh hrfdng bdi linh hinh chung cua nen kinh te'the gidi.
KET LUAN
Ddnh gid mffc dp Iff do hda tdi khoan vd'n d Viet Nam dffa tren nhdm chi sd cd sd phdp ly va nhdmchi sdddng vd'n thffe te cho thd'y: Xel tren cd sd phdp ly, Viet Nara dang ttirfe hien Iff do hda lai khoan vdn vdi mffc dp tang dan; Xet theo dong vdn thffc te, chi sd tdng tai san vd khodn phdi h-a nffde ngoai/GDP cua Vidl Nam van dpng khdng dn dinh trong ca giai doan, nhffng cao hdn so vdi Malaysia, Thdi Lan va Trung Qude, dac bidt trong giai doan 2015-2018.
Dieu dd cho thay. vide ndi ldng han che'ddi vdi cdc ddng vdn di ra/di vdo ciia Chinh phii Viet Nam chi la mgt trong so' cde nguydn nhdn dan tdi sff bie'n dpng ciia cdc dong vdn di ra/di vdo lanh thd
22
Viet Nam trong giai doan 2005-2018.
Vao nhffng thdi ky dac biet, khi nen kinh td'khu vrfc hay todn cau phai do'i mat vdi cde eupc khiing hoang tai chinh lien td, cde ddng vdn di ra/di vao lanh thd qude gia se ed the bien dgng ngrfdc ehieu vdi chi sd phdp ly. Srf bie'n dpng manh me Ciia ddng chu ehuyen vd'n qudc Id' ed the gay ra nhffng bd't dn dd'i vdi khu vrfe tdi chinh trong nrfdc. Chinh vi vay, Viet Nam cdn xdy dffng mpt IP trinh trf do hda tai khoan vdn phu hdp de han che' nhflng tac dgng tidu cffc do sff ba't dn dinh cua dong chu chuyd'n vp'n qud'c td' gdy ra,
IMF dffa ra Id tnnh 3 giai doan iff do hda tai khodn vd'n dpi vdi cac qud'c gia nhff sau: Giai doan 1: Trf do hda dau tff trrfc tid'p nrfdc ngodi; Giai doan 2: Trf do hda dau Irf trrfc tiep ra nrfdc ngodi va eae ddng vd'n ddi han khdc, ddng thdi han che dong ngan han; Giai doan 3: Trf do hda hoan todn tdi khoan vd'n (Bang 3).
Do Irfpng mffc dp trf do hda tai khoan vdn d Viet Nam theo nhdm chi sd' cd sd phdp ly cho tha'y, Vidt Nara dang d giai doan 2 theo lg trinh tff do hda tai khoan vo'n eiia IMF. Theo do, de' thrfc hidn iff do hda dau iff trffc tie'p ra ntfdc ngoai vd cae ddng vdn dai han khdc (vp'n ngan han vdn bi kiem sodt), edc qud'c gia phai
BANG 3: LQ TRINH T^ DO HOA TAI KHOAN VON THEO QOAN DIEM CUA IMF Ttr do hoa d6ng von FDI va gidi
han dong von (vao) ngSn han
TiT do hoa dau tu" infc tiep ra niTcic ngoai va cac dong von d&i han khac, kiem soat von ng^n han
Cai caL-h khuon kh^ phap lual tai chinh Tang cu'dng he thong ke toan va thong ke Tang cu'dng quan ly thanh khoan toan he ihong va cdc hoat d6ng ve tien te va ngoai hoi co lien quan
TiTdohdahoantoiin
Cai each cac quy dinh ve than trong, giam sat va quan ly rui ro Tdi cau tnic khu vu'c tai chinh va doanh nghi6p Phat trien thj tru'dng von ke ca quy hifu tri
Giai doan 1 | Giai doan 2 | Giai doan 3
hoan thanh cai each the che', hd Ihd'ng ke todn vd thdng kd, quan ly thanh khodn cua toan hd thd'ng tdi chinh.
Do vdy, giai doan hidn tai, Viet Nam nen tap trung vao cai cdeh he tho'ng tai chinh, trong dd tdp trung vao he Ihd'ng ngan hang thrfdng mai, nang cao ehat Irfdng the chd', hodn thidn cac chinh sdch kinh td' vi md, thay vi tao dot phd Irong vide nang cao mffe dp Iff do hda tdi khodn vd'n. Dieu nay giup Vidt Nam dara bao an toan cho he thd'ng tdi chinh, cung nhrf cd the thu hiit dffdc cac dong vdn dau trf nrfdc ngodi co chat Irfdng eao trong didu kidn hgi nhap ngay cang sdu va rgng vao kinh td'khu vffe vd thd'gidi.•
TALLIEU THAM KHA.0 _ _
1. Chinn, Menzie D. and Hiro Ito (2002). Capital account liberalization, institutions and financial development: cross country evidence. National Bureau of Economic Research, 8967
2. Chinn, Menzie D. and Hiro Ito (2005-2018). The Chinn-Ito Index, - A de jure measure of fmancial openness, access to http://web.pdx.edu/~ito/Chinn-Ito_websile.htnt
3. Edison, H.J., Klein, M., Ricci, L. and Slok, T. (2002). Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/120
4. Fernandez, A., Klein, M. W., Rebueei, A., Schindler, M. and Uribe, M. (2016). Capital control measures: A new dataset, IMF Economic Review, 64(3), 548-574
5. Henry, Peter Blair (2007). Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation, Journal of Economic Literature. XLV, 887-935
6. Ishii, S., Habermeier, K. F. and Canales-Kriljenko, J. I. (2002). Capital accountliberalization and financial sector stability. International Monetary Fund, 211
7. IMF (2005-2018). IMF Data, access lo imf.org
8. Kraay, A. (1998). In search of the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization 9. Kose, M. A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K. and Wei, S. J. (2009). Financial globalization: A reappraisal, IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 8-62
10. Lane, P. R., & Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2001). The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign asseis and liabilities for industrial and developmg countries. Journal of international Economics, 55(2), 263-294
11. Prasad E. S. and Rajan R.G. (2008). A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization.
Discussion Paper Series IZA DP, 3475
12. Schindler. M. (2009). Measuring financial integration: a new data set, IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 222-238
13. World Bank (2005-2018). Data, access to the data.worldbank.org
