himg khoan
DIEN DAN KINH TE
KINH T E VIET N A M T H A N G 2 & 2 T H A N G D A U N A M 2012:
NHIEU CHi SO, CHI BAO KHA Di NHIfNG KHO KHAN THACH THUC CHUA GIAM
^K^ 9 ^^ IN G U Y E N T H A N H
Biem lai tinh hinh kinh te hai thang diu nim, Bd Ki ho^ch vi Biu tir (KH&BT) nhin dinh co chny^ b i ^ tich cue nhung cung c ng^i lam phat co xu huong ting t i ^ lai. Nhip sieu chi it muc 4,1% nhung tiim i n kha ning tang cao ii nhiing thing sau. Cic nginh sin xuit cing gip kho. Boanh nghiip sau thoi gian dii ching choi voi kho khan da hoc 16 ro "sue khoe" co phin suy giim.
im
Mang sdng
Theo bao cao sd bp ciia Bo KH&DT, cac chi tieu kinh te thang 2 d muc kha dep nhu ke hoach. Tin hieu kha quan nhat la xua't khau tdng cao hem nhap khau va nhap sieu giam. Tong kim ngach xuat khau hai thang nam nay cao hdn nhieu so vdi Cling ky nam trudc (15,29 ty USD so vdi 12,24 ty USD, tang 24,8%). Xuat khau thang 2 dat 8,2 ty USD, cao hofn miic binh quan thang (8,02 ty USD) cua ca nam 2011. Toe dp tang so vdi
Hal riidng 66u nfim nay, ldi su^t 6d gidm nhimg v5n c6n d mi>c cao, gay I(h6 khan cho sdn xud't vd 6di i6ng nhan ddn.
Anh ST
Cling ky ndm trudc va ciing cao nhd't so vdi cdc chi tieu kinh te' khac. Mot so nhom mat hdng
tdng manh, nhu phudng tien van tai va phu tiing tang 86%; dien tii, may tinh jjb
( t i ^ ttieo trong 33)
cac Vu chufc ndng trufc thupc Uy ban, Sd Giao djch Chufng l<hodn Hd Ndi, Trung tdm Lufu ky Chufng khodn, Trung tam Nghidn cufu khoa hpc & Ddo tao chufng khodn (TT NCKH&DTCK), Tap chi Chufng khodn vd Cd quan dai didn UBCKNN phoi hdp vdi chi nhdnh TT NCKH&DTCK tai Tp. Ho Chi IVIinh.
De chuin bi cho cudc
thi. Ban Nuf cdng UBCKNN da td' ehuTc bud*i ndi chuydn, tuf vin thdi trang cua chuydn gia tU vin thdi trang din tuf NEW NEIVI cho cdc edn bd, cdng ehufc, vidn chufc trong Uy ban. Vdi tidu chf thanh Ijch, tre trung, chuydn nghidp, cudc thi dd di/dc thilt k l gom hai phin trinh diln gom Thdi trang cdng sd vd Thdi trang tuf chpn cd dan xen ede tilt muc ca nhac.
Cdc dpi tham gia duf thi dd th i hidn tdi ndng, suf tuf tin vd ndt duydn ddng cua nhufng cdn bp, cdng chufc, vidn chufc Uy ban trong ede bd trang phuc cdng sd thanh Ijch, trang nhd cung nhCfng y tufdng sdng tao ddc ddo cija phin thi trang phuc tuf chpn. Kit thuc cudc thi. Ban to chufc dd trao gidi nhit phin trinh dien thdi trang cdng sd cho Vu Gidm sdt thj trufdng; gidi nhit thdi trang
tuf chpn vd gidi nhit todn dodn thudc v l Trung tam LUu ky Chufng khodn.
Ngodi ra, Ban to chufc cdn trao 7 gidi phu nhuf giai trinh dien do ddi duydn ddng nhit thudc ve Tap chi Chufng khodn, gidi trinh dien trang phuc truyin thong dep nhit thupc ve Vu Tdi vu qudn trj... Cupc thi dd dien ra trong khdng khi sdi n6i, tufdi vui vd de lai nhilu I n tufdng dep.
P.V
34
CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM So 161 Thing 3/2012
DIEN DAN KINH TE ^frhiiiig khoan
_ > . UJ-gA M-.-.
tang 62%; may moc, thiet bi, dung cu phu tiing tang 56,5%;
hat tieu tang tren 36%, chii yeu do gia tang tren 30% (con lugmg xuat khau giam 4,5%); det may tang 25,4%; gidy dep tang 21%;
che tang gan 20%; gl va san pha'm go tang tren 19%; thiiy san tang 15,6%...
Tdng kim ngach nhap khau 2 thang nam nay tuy dat cao hdn Cling ky nam trudc (15,92 ty USD so vdi 14,24 ty USD), nhimg to'c do tang lai thap chua bang mot niia toe do tang tuffng ling ciia xuat khau (11,8% so voi 24,8%). Do vay, nhap sieu 2 thang dau nam nay da giam so voi Cling ky nam trudc ca ve quy mo tuyet ddi (0,63 ty USD so vdi 2 ty USD), ca ve ty le nhap sieu (4,1% so vdi 16,3%). Trong d6, thang 1 da xuat sieu 0,17 ty USD, diem sang ciia thang khdi dau trong nhieu nam gan day.
Theo ong Biii Ha Vu trudmg Vu Tdng hgrp Kinh te Qudc dan (Bp KH&DT), so vdi ke hoach muc tieu girt nhap sieu duoi 20% thi nhap sieu trong 2 thang dau nam la ty le "dudng nhu rat tdt".
Chi sd gia tieu diing (CPI) thang 2 tang 1,37% so vdi thang 1, "day la nam dau tien sau rat nhieu nam, gia ca trong thang sau Tet khong tang manh va cung la miic tang thap so vdi thang 2 moi nam", ong Biii Ha nhan dinh. Thang 2 va tinh chung 2 thang nam nay, CPI da tang thap hem ciing ky trong nhieu nam trudc; neu tinh theo nam, thi da giam lien tuc tii thang 9 nam ngoai den nay.
Neil tiep da giam nhu nhiing thang qua, thi toe dp tang chi sd gia tieu dung tinh theo nam
™M6t SO dinh che
tdi chinh quoc te ciing ghi nhan kinh te Viet Jfam hien dang c6 nhitng tia sdng. Trong do, lan ddu tien sau hai ndm, cdn cdn thanh todn Viet jfam c6 thang du mot mi ty ^S^.fgj
trong nhiing thang tdi se c6 the con giam nhieu hem.
Trong thang 1, do cd sd ngay nghi Tet keo dai nen tdc dp tang trudfng san xuat giam so vdi thang 12/2011 va giam so vdi Cling ky 2011. Sang thang 2, san xuat da lay lai tdc dp, chi sd san xua't cong nghiep (IIP) tang 10%
so vdi thang 1 va tang 22,1% so vdi Cling ky nam 2011. Thu chi ngan sach dat ket qua tdt, bao dam can ddi cac nhu cau chi mpt each chii dpng. Ty le dat du toan nam ciia thu ngan sach cao hdn ciia chi ngan sach (11,7% so vdi 11,1%); ciia thu npi dia cao hdn tdng thu (12% so vdi 11,7%), trong dd ciia thu tii khu vuc DNNN dat cao han (15,5%)...
Mpt mang sang khac la thi trudng chiing khoan co dau hieu khdi sac khi tang diem va tang gia tri giao dich. Ty gia dn dinh, chenh lech gia vang giiia trong nudc va the gidi da giam manh.
Ty gia VND/USD da dupe dn dinh trong thdi gian tuomg ddi dai; chenh lech giiia ty gia tren thi trudng tu do va thi trudng chinh thiic da dupe giam thieu.
Mpt sd dinh che tai chinh qudc te ciing ghi nhan kinh te Viet Nam hien dang cd nhiing tia sang. Ngoai nhiing yeu td ke tren nhu lam phat giam, tham hut ngan sach giam, tham hut thuong mai, can can vang lai giam thi du tni ngoai te tang chlit it. Lan dau tien sau hai nam, can can thanh toan Viet Nam cd thang du mpt vai ty USD.
Ap luc lqm phdt - kho khan tCr xudt khdu, sdn xudt
Cung phai thay ring, kinh te 2 thang dau nam van con nhiing khd khan. Cu the, cac nganh kinh te thuc nhu san xuat nong nghiep, cong nghiep, xay dung gap nhieu khd khan, tang I trudng cham lai. Thang 2, san
xuat cdng nghiep cd khdi sic, song toan nganh cdng nghiep tinh chung hai thang chi tang 3,9% so vdi cung ky nam trudc, trong dd, cong nghiep che bien la nganh chiem ty trpng Idn nhat cdn tang thap hom (2,4%) thap hom nhieu so vdi tdc dp tang
18,2% ciia Cling ky nam trudc.
Nganh nong nghiep cung cd nhiing khd khan rieng. Tinh hinh thdi tiet khdng thuan loi viia qua da anh hudmg den tien dp gieo trdng so vdi ciing ky, them vao dd chan nudi ciing bi anh hudmg. Dii lieu ciia Bp KH&DT cho thay, sd lugmg dan trau, bd ciia ca nudc da giam tren 7% so vdi ciing ky nam ngoai. Tdng lugmg dan gia siic thudmg khong cd bien dpng ldm nen miic giam tren 7% la rait dang chii y, nhat la khi viia rdi thuc pham tang gia manh, cd anh hudmg ldm den xu hudmg gia tieu dung.
35
So 161 Thing 3/2012 CHUNG KHOA N VIE T NAM
hihig khodn
DIEN DAN KINH TE
Nhin lai, CPI thang 2/2011 tang tdi l,37'/f so vdi thang 1 nhung neu tinh lam phai theo nam thi so vdi thang 2/2011, CPI tang tdi 16,44% va binh quan 2 thang ndm 2012 (anfj; Ut\
16,85% so vdi ciing ky. Trong khi dd, lai .sunt tuy da giam nhimg van cdn cr miic cao K>'.V khd khdn cho san xuat va ddi sdng. Bp KH&DT nhan dinh:
lam phat co xu hudmg tang Ircv lai. Ap luc tang gia dang rinh rap khi tinh hinh the gidi chua he cd mpt du bao tdt hom nhumg lai cd nhiing bieu hien tieu cue hom. Gia dau thd da tdng nhc trong thang va du bao tiep tuc tang nUa trong thang 3. "Khi gia dau thd tang se tac dpng tdng gia den hang loat loai hang hda khac nhau va tdc ddng ngay vdo gia ban le xang dau trong nudc.
Gia xang dau trong nudc neu tang thi se tac dpng nhieu den cac loai gid khac'', ong Nguyen Thanh Hda Phd Vu trudmg Vu Ke hoach tdng hdp (Bp Cdng thuomg) phat bieu.
Them vao dd, xuat khau tang cao chua viing chic. Trong khi dp luc tang gia the hien kha rd trong sd lieu nhap khau thdng 2 vdi gia nhap kha'u hau het cac mat hang deu tdng. Theo dng Hoa, vdi tinh hinh nay, nguy cd nhap sieu se tang cao trd lai d nhiing thdng sau. Nhu vay bat dn vi md van chua het cang thing.
Sue khoe doanh nghidp suy gidm
Nhiing bat dn vi md va dp luc lam phat tac dpng ngay den doanh nghiep ciing nhu siic khoe ciia doanh nghiep phan anh ngay tinh hinh kinh te. Theo Bp
KH&DT, cd 8.699 doanh nghipp mdi ddng ky kinh doanh vdi tdng so vdn dang ky khodng 49.213 (y ddng, thap hom ciing ky ndm ngoai 1,6% vc so doanh nghipp va giiim 'l4'/r vv vdn. Tuy khong dua ra con so thdng ke chinh thiic nhumg phan anh tii cac dia phudng vc l^d KH&DT Id nhieu doanh nghipp dd ngiing hoat dpng va pha san do khd khdn tii may nam qua tich tu ddn ndng sang nam nay.
Tinh tii dau ndm den ngay 22/2, sd doanh nghipp dupe Sd KH&DT Ha Npi cap ddng ky kinh doanh dd gidm 2,6%; so vdi Cling ky ndm trudc; vdi sd vdn ddng ky giam tuomg iing 36%.
Cd the thay, ddng vdn trong xa hpi da td ra than trpng hom vdi cdc y tuomg kinh doanh mdi.
Chua het, Sd KH&DT Hd Ndi trong hai thdng qua cdn lam thii tuc giai the cho 169 doanh nghiep, gap 4,3 lan ciing ky nam trudc. 6 Tp.HCM cung vay, lugmg doanh nghiep xin giai the' tinh den thdng 2 tai thdnh phd nay da la 327 dom vi.
Nhu vdy, tinh rieng Ha Npi vd Tp. HCM da cd khoang 500 doanh nghiep ddng ky giai the trong hai thdng qua. Rat cd the sd doanh nghipp giai the' trong thuc te cdn ldm hom, cd the den con sd nghin. Ddng lo la tdm ly ngudi Viet Nam, ludn chd cd hpi mdi vd khdi dau cdng viec mdi or dau ndm mdi nen vipc giai the Cling Id viec "cue chdng dd"
Nhiing khd khdn ciia doanh nghiep the' hipn of ngay dau ra ciia san pha'm. Theo Bp KH&DT, tdng miic ban le vd doanh thu dich vu tieu dung thdng 2, Id thdng sau Td't Nguyen dan, chi dat khoang
186,46 nghin ty ddng, giam 2,4%
so vdi thdng trudc. Nhu vay, tinh chung 2 thdng d i u nam dat 380,28 nghin ty ddng, tang 22%
so Cling ky, nhung loai t n i yeu td gid chi cdn tdng khoang 4,4%, rdt thap so vdi cdc ndm trudc ddy.
Thdi gian ndy mpi ndm, kim ngach xud't khd'u cac mdt hang ndng, lam, thiiy san van duy tri tdng trudng khoang tii 20% trd len, hai thang ndm nay ciing chi tuomg dudng ciing ky. Chi sd tieu thu ngdnh cdng nghiep che bien, che tao vao thdng 1/2012 da giam tdi 24% so vdi thdng trudc dd vd giam 17% so vdi Cling ky.
Khdng chi doanh nghiep cd quy md nho md tai cupc hpp giufa UBND Tp.HCM va doanh nghiep mdi gan day, cac tap dodn, tdng cdng ty ldm ciing phan anh gap rat nhieu khd khdn.
Trong khi dd, theo nhieu du bao, nam nay, kinh te' Viet Nam va ca the gidi se tiep tuc khd khdn. Kinh te' Viet Nam cd dp mdr cao nen kha ndng bi va dap Cling khdng he nho. Hien lam phdt dang diu di, dd Id dau hieu tich cue, nhung tinh thanh khoan tien te vdn ra't kem, do dd vdi doanh nghiep, khd khan vdn chua he giam. Trong khi do, he thdng ngan hang lai dang trong qua trinh tai cd cau.
TS. Tran Dinh Thien, Vien trudmg Vien Kinh te' Viet Nam cho rdng, cd the phai sang den quy 2/2012 mdi dinh hinh dudc phan nao tinh hinh kinh te, lam phat giam sau hom thi lai suat mdi giam them, doanh nghiep mdi de thcf hom tren mpt nen vi md tdt hom. ®
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CHUNG KHOAN VIETNAM So 161 Thing 3/2012
