TAI CHJNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
CHINH SACH THUE THU NHAP DOANH NGHIEP TAC D O N G DEN PHAT TRIEN KINH TE d VIET NAM
> PHAN THI HANG NGA - NGO TUAN HUNG
TOM TAT:
Noi dung bai viet la phan tich sff tae dpng cua ehinh sdch thue thu nhap doanh nghidp den phat trien kinh te & Viet Nam. Dff lieu nghidn cffu dffdc tac gia thu thap tff giai doan 2007-2018 theo 58 tinh, thanh pho cua nffdc ta. Tac gia do Iffdng mffc do tac dpng cua ehinh saeh thue thu nhap doanh nghiep dd'n phat trien kinh te' 6 Viet Nam trong ngSn han va dai han thdng qua md hinh veetd hidu chinh sai s6' VECM, ki^m dinh nhan qua Granger... Kdt qua nghien cffu eho tha'y ehinh sach thue' co tae dpng de'n tang tnrdng kinh te d Viet Nam, dffa tren ke't qua nghien cffu de xuat eae khuyd'n nghi d^ hoan thien ehinh saeh thud' thu nhSp doanh nghidp thuc Aiy tang trffdng kinh td* trong thdi gian tdi.
Tff khda: Chinh sdch thue' thu nhap doanh nghidp, tang trffdng kinh td'.
1. Gidi thidu
Thud' du'oc sff dung de dieu ehinh lam phat, on dmh thi trffdng. Bang each giam thue do'i vdi cac yeu td san xua't dau vao se kich thieh doanh nghidp san xua'l - kinh doanh nhieu hdn hoac bang each lang ihud'de giam bdt nhu cau ve tieu dung. Mot hd tho'ng thud'phil hdp ed vai tro quan trong trong viec dam bao ngan sach quo'c gia, tao moi irffdng canh tranh eong bang, thuan loi eho hoat dpng eua doanh nghidp. Qua dd giup doanh nghiep phat trien va chinh nhd sff phat trien nay, cac doanh nghiep cd traeh nhiem ddng thud' lai cho ed quan nha nffdc, tff do giiip duy tri boat dpng eua ed quan nha ntfdc va phan phoi lai thu nhap eho xa hdi.
Thue' va doanh nghidp co stf tae dpng qua lai Ian nhau. Tuy nhien, nd'u ehinh sach thud' ma Nha nu'dc ban hanh khdng hdp ly, ne'u qua eao se lam gia tang ganh nang thud' cho doanh nghiep, gay kho khan, can Ird stf phat tri^n cua doanh nghidp, hoae ne'u ehinh saeh thud' qua tha'p hoac khdng cong bang se gay ra stf ma't canh tranh giffa eae doanh nghiep. Vi vay, vdi viee xay dffng chinh
sach thud' hdp ly se giiip khuye'n khich doanh nghiep san xua't, qua dd thue day stf phat trien cua nin kinh td'. Nhtf vay, chinh sach thud' TNDN tac ddngde'n tang trtfdng kinh te'cua ttfng linh nhff the' nao va md'i quan he hai ehieu ra sao la npi dung c^n nghidn ctfu. Theo dd, nhdm tae gia da thtfe hien nghien effu nay, nham mue dieh de hieu ro them mdi quan he tae ddng qua lai giffa chinh s^ch thud' thu nh§p doanh nghiep va tang trtfdng kinh le' ndi chung, ddng thdi Iam rd thdm mdt so' nghidn etfu ehuyen sau ve chinh sach thud'thu nhap doanh nghiep, dat trong md'i quan he de'n tang trffdng kinh td'. Nghien cffu nay hi vpng ed y nghia nhat dmh dd'i vdi ca nha nghidn effu kinh td' - tai chinh va nha hoach dinh ehinh sach.
2. Cd sd ly thuyd't va cac nghien cffu tru'dc Trong thi trtfdng canh tranh, ne'u ngtfdi lieu dung la ngffdi ndp thue' (Hinh 2.1b) thi hp khdng san Idng mua nhieu hang hda bi danh thud', vi vay gia ca gidm xud'ng. Ne'u ngffdi san xua't la ngtfdi ndp thud' (Hinh 2.1a) thi hp se tang gia ca d mpt mffe nha't dinh de bii ddp ganh nang thud' va thu
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TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
Hinh 2. T. Thue tac ddng den cung cdu
QT Qo Q
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nhap ciia hp se khdng bi giam xud'ngbangdungsd tien thud'phai nop.
Tang trtfdng kinh td'cd thd' bieu hidn bang qui md tang trffdng va td'c do tang trtfdng. Qui md tang trtfdng phan anh sff gia tang ldn hay giam di nhi^u hay It, cdn td'c dp tang trtfdng dtfpc sff dung vdi y nghTa so sanh ttfdng dd'i va phan anh stf gia tang nhanh hay cham cua ndn kinh td'giffa nam hay cac thdi ky. De do Iffdng lang trtfdng kinh te' ngtfdi ta thtfdng diing 2 chi so'chu yd'u: phan tang, giam quy md eua nen kinh td' (tinh theo GDP), hoac td'c dp tang irtfdng kinh te' (tinh theo GDP).
Cdc nghien cdu trUdc
Claudio J.Katz, Vincent A. Mahler & Michael G.Franz (1983) khao sat 22 qud'e gia phai trien ed nen kinh td' ttf ban chu nghia de xem thud' cd tac ddng dd'n tang trtfdng bang each tie'n hanh danh gia taeddngeua thue'bang nhieu ed chd', eud'i eung dtfa ra ke't luan rdng thud'lam giam tid't kidm nhimg khdng anh hffdng dd'n tang trtfdng.
Koester and Kormendi (1989) da sff dung ngudn dff lieu Iff IMF cua 63 nffde de xay dffng phffdng phap phan lieh mffe thue' sua't trung binh va mffe thue' sua't can bidn. Kd't qua hdi quy ehi ra rkng ed rat it bang ehffng v^ tac ddng ciia 2 loai thud' trdn dd'n td'c dd tang trffdng.
Plosser (1992) da nghidn cffu tinh ttfdng quan giffa ty Id tang trtfdng GDP binh quan dau ngtfdi ciia cac ntfdc trong khd'i OECD. Cd md'i quan hd tidu ctfc giffa tang trtfdng va thud' sua't trung binh.
Miller va Russek (1993; 1997) da tie'n hanh ffdc Iffdng bang phtfdng phap sff dung md hinh tac ed'
dinh vdi dff lieu bang cua 39 nffdc, ehia Ihanh 3 nhdm: cac ntfdc phat trien, cac ntfde dang phat trien va la'l ea cac ntfdc (cac ntfde phat trien s\ cac nffde dang phat trid'n). Thdi gian ffdc Itfdng la tfi nam 1975 dd'n nam 1984. Ke't qua la: Trong tru'dng hdp cua ta't ca cae ntfdc, cd mpt md'i ttfdng quan tieh ctfe ton tai giffa doanh thu thud'thu nhap doanh nghidp vdi tang trtfdng kinh td'.
Widmalm (2001) sff dung dtf lieu bang de khao sat 23 ntfde irong khdi OECD tff nam 1965 -1990.
Cac kd't qua phSn tich eho tha'y rang tang trffdng kinh le' se bi han chd' khi ed stf gia tang trong thue thu nhap luy tie'n. Thue' thu nhap thffdng di kem vdi tang trffdng kinh te' thS'p hdn so vdi thue ti^u dung.
Angelopoulos va cdng sff (2006) cQng sff dung dtf hdu bang de nghien cffu eho 23 nffdc d OECD trong khoang thdi gian tff nam 1970-2000. Ong va edng sff cua minh da sff dung phffdng phap hdi quy tac dpng cd' dinh nham lam rd sff tffdng quan tieu effe giffa thue' thu nhap lao dpng va tang trKdng kinh td' nhffng lai cd stf ttfdng quan tich cffc giSa thud' thu nhap vd'n va thud' tidu dung den lang irffdng kinh td'.
3. Phffrfng phap nghidn cffu
Dtf lieu de thtfc hidn nghien cffu dffde lay tff He thd'ng ed sd dff lieu cac chi tieu tai chinh eua Quy Tien le Qudc te' (IFS-IMF); Tong cue Thong ke (GSO); Ngan hang Nha nffdc. Sd lieu nay du'dc tdng hdp va xff ly trdn phan men Eview 8.
Tac gia sff dung md hinh ciia Lee va Gordon (2005) va La Xuan Dao (2012) de danh gia lac
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dong cua chinh sach thud'TNDN ldn tang irffdng kinh te'.
Phffdng trinh nghien effu tdng quat:
ECOGROW = f (TAXTNDN)
Tac gia sff dung md hinh VECM de hdi quy ye'u to trong ngan ban va dai han, cd th^giai thieh eho ca t^e ddng trong ngan han va dai ban. He so'hidu chinh sai so' tff md hinh cung cap nhffng thdng tin lidn quan de'n vide hidu chinh ve can bang cua cac t^c dpng nay de tff do, nhffng nha lam chinh saeh bid't dtfdc tac ddng cua nd nhtf the' nao va dtfa eae bie'n kinh id' ve trang thai can bang cua nd (Angelopoulos, 2006).
4. Ke't qua va thao lu^n
4.1. Kiem dinh tinh ddng chuoi thdi gian Kiem dmh tinh dffng nhSm dam bao vide sff dung md hinh VECM la hdp ly va dang lin cay.
Trong trffdng hdp chudi dff lieu hay eae sai phan ciia nd khdng dffng, md hinh VECM se khdng th^
sddung dffde.
Vdi mtfc y nghia 5%, tai mffc Level, gia Iri tuyet dd'i eua T statistic eua tat ca cac bid'n d^u ldn hdn gia tri tuydt dd'i cua Test Cricieal va mffc sai phtn b|e l(lst Difference) gia trj tuydt dd'i eiia T statistic cua tat ea cae bid'n deu nhd hdn gia tri
tuydt dd'i cua Test Crieical, tffe la gia thie't HO dffdc eha'p nhan d mffe Level 1 va bae bd d mffe sai phan bae 1.
4.2. Kei qua nghien ciiu
Ke't qua kiem dinh hd nhSn qua eua eae ye'u td anh htfdng dd'n tang trtfdng kinh td' cho th^'y: Chinh sach thud'thu nh|p doanh nghidp la nguydn nhSn dan dd'n tang trtfdng kinh le'.
Tang trtfdng kmh te' la nguyen nhan lam thay ddi ehinh sach thue' thu nhap doanh nghiep.
Kiem dinh mdi quan he trong ngdn han Ke't qua hdi quy trong ngan ban vdi dp trd la 1 thi tae gia nhan tha^y trong ngan ban bie'n chinh sach thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (TAX_TNDN) tac dpng cung chieu dd'n tang trtfdng kinh td' (ECOGROW) d mffc y nghia 1%. Khi chinh sach thud' thu nhap doanh nghiep (TAX_TNDN) tang 1%, thl bie'n thien tang trffdng kinh id' (ECOGROW) giam 2,589738%, trong khi cac ye'u to' khac la khdng ddi.
4.3. Thdo luan kei qud nghien cdu Trong dai han: Chinh sach thud'thu nhap doanh nghidp (TAX_TNDN) tae ddng ngffdc chieu de'n tang trffdng kinh te' (ECOGROW) d mffc </ nghTa 1%. Bdn canh do, kd't qua nghien effu eho tha'y ed
Bang 3.1. Cac yeu to trong mo hinh nghien cOfu tac gia de xudt Y ^ to d$c l$p
Chinh sach Ihue TNDN Bi@h phu thu$c Tang trudng kmh le
Ma Hda TAXTNDN Ma hoa ECOGROW
Nguon tham khao Lee va Gordon (2004) va La Xuan Dao (2012)
Nguon
Lee va Gordon (2004) va La Xuan Dao (2012) Ngudn: Tdc gid. 2019
Kyhl$u
Bang 3.2. Ddu ky vong giura c d c bie'n
Bien 1 Ky vpng
YeutophuthuOo ECOGROW (%) Tdc dd tang trudng kinh te
Y3u to d<ic l$p
TAXTNDN (%) Td'c dd tang trudng thue TNDN Viet Nam | +/- Nguon- Tdc gid. 2019 Bang 3.3. T6m tdt cdc bien trong mo hinh va nguon thu thgp dCf lieu
len bien ECOGROW TAXTNDN
Mota Tdc dp tang trudng kinh te Tdc dp tang trudng thue TNDN Vidt Nam
6onv|
%
%
Ngudn Website cua Tdng cue Thd'ng Ice Viet Nam, IMF, World Bank.
Ngudn: Tdc gid, 2019
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Bdng 4.1. Ket qua kierm nghiem ddn vj theo phUdng phdp cd chgn
Bien so
ECO GROWTH TAXTNDN
Kiem dinh ADF
T statistics (o) -3,329109""
-26,74085*
Ctiucil goc (ieve Test cricicai value
-3,130843 -3.972526
)
p. vaiue 0,0625 0,000 Chii thich: * cd mdc ^ nghTa 1 * cd mdc JJ nghia 5%; *** cd mdc y nghia 1
Bdng 4.2. Kiem djnh he nhdn qud cua tdng trt/dng kinh te vd chinh sdch thue thu nhdp doanh nghiep trong ddi hqn
Nuil Hypothesis:
TAX_TNDN does not Granger Cause ECOGROW ECOGROW does not Granger Cause TAX^TNDN
Tri thong l<e F 2,49888 3,01649
Prob 0,0298 0,0107 Nguon: Tdc gid (rich xud't tif phdn mem Eview
Bang 4.10. Mo hinli hieu ch?nh sal so FEM x a c djnh mdi quan he ngdn hqn Bien
TAX_TNDN (-1) C R-squared R2 hieu chinh
H$ so hdi quy -20,60459
116,5145 0,801028 0,797532
Gia tri l<ilm dinh t-^tatistlc -2,589738
624,6982 Prob(F-statistic) Durbin Watson
Mijlc y nghTa Prob, 0,0098 0,0000 0,0000 1,979051 Nguon Di^ lieu Irieh xud't tdphdn mim Eview, pha luc 2
sff tac ddng qua lai giffa Chinh saeh thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (TAX_TNDN) va tang trifdng kinh te (ECOGROW).
Trong ngSn ban: Chinh sach thue' thu nhap doanh nghiep (TAX_TNDN) tac ddng ciing chi^u den lang Irffdng kinh te (ECOGROW) d mffc y nghia 1%. Khi ehinh sach thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (TAX_TNDN) tang 1 %, thi bie'n thien tang trffdng kinh le (ECOGROW) giam 2,589738%, trong khi eae yeu to'khae la khdng ddi.
Ke't qua nghien effu cho tha'y ed md'i quan he ngffdc chieu giffa chinh sach thue TNDN va tang irffdng kinh te. Ke't qua nghien cffu nay phu hop vdi nghidn cffu cua Dffdng Ngoc Quang va cdng sff (2015), ke'l qua chira rang, ed che tac ddng eua thue TNDN tdi nen kinh te nhff sau: Thue TNDN la sac thue irffc thu, nen viec tang giam thue se ngay lap iffc tac ddng tdi thu nhap eung nhff ldi ich cua nha dau tff. Cu the la khi chinh phu tang thue', nha d^u Iff se phai nop thue nhieu hdn, thu nhap se giam di va trong irffdng hdp dd se khdng khuye'n
khich cac nha dau tu gia tang tieh liiy, lang tiet kidm de md rdng dau tff.
Dieu nay ciing phu hop vdi ly thuye't t3ng trffdng ndi smh. Theo Richard Kneller va cdng siJ (1999) ehl ra rSng ve ehi deu chinh phu trong mot md hinh ddn gian cua sff tang trffdng ndi sinh Ihi ket qua nghien cffu cho tha'y rang thue bdp m^o (thue danh tren thu nhap va ldi nhuan, ddng gdp an sinh xa hgi, thue danh tren Iffdng va nhan life, thue danh trdn tai san) lam giam tang irffdng, trong khi thue khdng bdp meo (thue danh tren hang hda va dieh vu noi dia) thi khdng lam giam tang irffdng.
5. Ke't luan va ham y chi'nh sach 5.1. Ke't luan
Nghien cffu da ehffng minh va ph§n tich mdi quan he giffa ehinh saeh thud' thu nhap doanh nghiep de'n tang trffdng kinh te. Nghien etfu sil dung dff lieu nam cua 58 tmh, thanh phd' iff nam 2007 dd'n nam 2017, cd 638 quan sat trong mau nghien cffu. Ke't qua eho tha'y, tdn tai it nhal 1 vector ddng tieh hdp giffa cac bie'n trong nghiSn ctfu-
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Tr6n cd sd dd, md hlnh ffdc Iffdng trong dai han dffdc vSn dung de tim ra md'i quan he cd y nghia nha't cua chinh sach thue thu nhSp doanh nghidp de'n tang tnfdng kinh te.
Trong dai han, eff lang 1% thi bie'n thien tang trffdng kinh td'(ECOGROW) giam 16,04787% trong dieu kien eac ye'u to khac khdng thay ddi. Ben canh do, ket qua nghien cffu eho tha'y cd sff lae ddng qua lai giffa ehinh saeh thue' thu nhap doanh nghiep (TAX_TNDN) va tang trffdng kinh te' (ECOGROW).
Trong khi dd, trong ngan han, chinh saeh thue' thu nhap doanh nghidp (TAX_TNDN) cd tac ddng ngffdc chieu de'n tang trffdng kinh te' (ECOGROWTH) d mffe y nghia 1%. Trong ngSn han, eff tang 1% thi bie'n thien tang trffdng kmh te' (ECOGROW) giam 2,589738% trong dieu kien eae yen id khae khdng thay ddi.
5.2. Hdm y chinh sdch
Tff ket qua nghien effu cung nhff thffc irang ehinh sach thue' thu nhap doanh nghiep, tac gia de xua't mot so'bidn phap nham thiic day tang tru'dng kinh
te' gan lien vdi viec dieu ehinh ehinh saeh thue TNDN, cu the':
Dieu ehinh giam mffc thue' sua't thud' TNDN eho DNNVV, tao dieu kien de DNNVV cd them ngudn iffc tai chinh, tang tich luy de day manh dau tff phat trien, nang eao nang Iffe eanh tranh; Ddn gian, mlnh bach hdn chinh sach ffu dai thue; Ra soat chinh sach ffu dai dau tff: rut gon cac ifu dai mang tinh chat xa hdi; Tang cffdng khuye'n khieh dau tff vao eac nganh san xua't cac san pham ed gia iri gia tang ldn, edng nghiep hd trd, cdng nghd cao, linh vffc xa hdi hda, BVMT, sinh thai, eae dai ban cd diiu kien kinh td' - xa hdi dac biet khd khan, khu cdng nghe eao, edng nghe tap trung...
Quy dinh ve xae dinh doanh thu, cac khodn chi phi dffdc irff va khdng dffde trff khi xae dinh thu nhap ehiu thue' phu hdp va cd tinh kha thi eao hdn;
bd sung cac quy dinh ve linh vffe kinh doanh mdi:
Ve quan ly so', thifdng mai dien iff; Cu the hda va'n de chd'ng xdi mdn ve thue', chuye'n gia, vd'n mdng;
khae phue tinh trang ehi mdi khd'ng ehe' ty le chi phi lai vay dd'i vdi eac ddn vi ed quan he lien ke't... •
TAI LIEU THAM K H A O :
1. Angelopoulos, Economides, G., Kammas, P., (2006). "Tax spending policies and economic growth: Theoretical predictions and evidence from OECD" European Journal of Political Economy, Vol.23,pp. 1615-1660.
2. Claudio J Katz, Vincent A Mahler & Michael G.Franz. (1983). "The impact of taxes on growth and distribution in developed capitalist countries: A cross - national study". American Political Science review, pp. 871-886.
3. Duong Ngoc Quang (2015). Hodn thien thue thu nhdp doanh nghiep nhdm thiic day tdi ca cdu nen kinh ti' Viet Nam Luan dn Tii'n si kinh te, Hgc viin Tdi chinh.
4. Ejfendi. N. Soemantri, F, M., (2003). "Foreign Direct investment and Regional Economic Growth in Indonesia: A Panel Data Study". Centre for Economics and Development Studies. Department of Economics, Pagjadjaran University, Indonesia. [PDF] Available at: <http://lp3e.je.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/200305.pdf> [Accessed 9 May 2013}. GerhardGlomm. B. Ravikumar, 1998., Flat-Rate Taxes, Government.
5. Kneller. R, Bleaney, M. F., & Gemmell, N (1999). "Fiscal policy ond growth: Evidence from OECD countries".
Journal of Public Economics. 74(2). 171-190.
6 Koester. Reinhard B.. Kormendi, Roger C, (1989). "Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Cross country evidence on some supply side hypothese ". Economics Inquiry, vol 37. 367-386 (July).
7. La Xudn Ddo. (2012) "Md'i quan he giSa sd thu thue vd tdng Irudng kinh ti'". Tgp chi Cdng nghi ngdn hdng. sd 73, thdng 4.
8. Lee. Young and Gordon. Roger. H (2004). "Tax structure and economic growth". Journal of Public Economics.
vol89,pp 1027-1043.
9. Lee, Young. Azfar. Omar, (2001). Does Corruption Delay Trade Reform''. Mimeo.
10. Miller.S., F.Rusek , (1997). "Fiscal stuctures and growth: International evidence". Economics Inquiry, Vol.35, pp 603-613.
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TAP CHl CONG THIftfNIi
11. Nguyin Thanh Son (2010). Gido trinh Thue. Nhd xud't bdn Lao ddng xd hdi, trang 3-7.
12. Phgm Qudc Viit (2016). "Nghiin cdu mdi quan he giSa cdu tnic thue vd tdng trUdng kinh ti'tai cdc quoc gia chau A ". Kinh te'vd Du bdo. Sd 14, tr. 7-10
13. Phgm Quo'c Viet, Luang Qudc Trgng Vinh vd Hd Thu Hodi (2016). "Tdc ddng cua thui'vd bdo hiem xd hoi den tdng trudng kinh ti'". Tgp chi Tdi chinh, so'thdng 9/2016, trang 59 - 63.
14. Plosser, C. (1992) The Research of Growth [PDF} available at <kansascityfed.org> accessed 15 October2013.
15. William G. Gale and Andrew A. Samwick (2014). Effects of Income Tax Changes on Economic Growth. The Brookings Institution, pp. 1-16.
Ngaynhan bai: 5/5/2019
Ngay phan bi^n danh gia va su'a chffa: 15/5/2019 Ngay chS'p nhSn dang bai: 25/5/2019
Thong tin tdc gid:
1. PHAN THI HANG NGA Trff&ng DEI! hpc Tai chinh-Marketing 2. NGO TUAN HUNG
Dal hpc NgSn hang
THE IMPACT OF CORPORATE INCOME TAX POLICY ON VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC GROWTH
• PHAM THI HANG NGA University of Finance - Marl<eting
• NGO TUAN HUNG Banl<ing University of Ho Chi IVIinh City
ABSTRACT:
This research is to analyze the impact of corporate income tax policy on Vietnam's economic grovi'th. Research data vi'as collected from 58 provinces of Vietnam from 2007 to 2018. The impact level of corporate income tax policy on Vietnam's economic development in the short and long-term was measured by the vector error correction model VECM and the Granger causality test. The research's result shows that the corporate income tax policy has impacted on Vietnam's economic growth. The research also proposes recommendations to perfect the corporate income tax policy in order to promote Vietnam's economic growth in the future.
Keywords: Corporate income tax policy, economic growth.
402 So 11 -Thong 6/2019
